The market has failed to unfold like I had hoped it would. I was looking for the hitting of the FP inside the range of the 20th-22nd, but that looks very unlikely now. This market is just refusing to drop hard or rally that last time in the blow off top to take out the shorts. Some people love to day trade but for me it's just too hard to time, so I've been patiently waiting for the upside FP to get hit, or the downside FP's, but it's just not going to happen.

I mention that because we could go down into the election without hitting the upside FP, and save it for the end of the year... who knows for sure? I only know that "for me" there's no safe trade while in-between the upside and downside FP's. I'm looking for a trend move and until we see the market at one end or the other there's just nothing to do but watch and wait (or gamble small on a short). This up and down daily crap is just noise that I want to avoid.  I posted a chart on X yesterday of a possible wave count, and this is it...

Now... could the cycle window for the high get pushed out in time? Sure, as they are just windows of time that align up with prior periods in the past where turns happened at. They can come early or arrive late and with the Republicans wanting to hold the market up until after the election I can certainly understand why the the market is stuck in this choppy zone going no where.

However, many cycles point to a low around the election, and I just can't wrap my head around there being some kind of large drop afterwards, whereby we go into it with a high of some degree. Maybe that happens, maybe not?  Odds do not favor it.  Prior cycles suggest a low around the 28th and another low around the 3rd-6th window.

What do I think?

I think we have been in a large B wave bounce since the low on the 16th, which was right into the cycle date.  When the B finishes the larger C down should follow and that will breakdown into a 5 wave move.  Most likely the wave 3 of C will bottom into the 28th, and we'll bounce for the wave 4 into the election, and then the wave 5 ends a few days later with a slightly lower low.  That will end the wave C and the entire correction from the all time high.

Then we start up into the first week of January where once again the FP on the SPY of 787.13 will be the target high.  There's a cycle high prior to that around December 13th (+/- a few days) and a cycle low around the 19th... which that's where the Santa rally should start and take the market up into around January 6th, 2027.

Where is the short term low into the election you ask?

Probably around the 7400 area as that's where the July 29th bottom fell to (7324 to be exact).  I don't think that low will be taken out, but we should get close to it to lure in some bears.  If it's hit into the 28th then the rally up into the election and pullback for a couple of days after could be a higher low... like a wave 1 up into the 3rd, and 2 down in the 5th/6th, and the week after starts the wave 3 up into around December 13th or so.

That would be the ideal setup I think as everyone is looking for a low into the election to go long at, but cycles suggest it bottoms around the 28th of October, bounces up in the election, and dips one last time afterwards.  That would fool everyone waiting for the long as it will come early.  Then after the election the small pullback afterwards will shake out the bulls.  The following week everything will calm down and the market will rally hard.

Now I could be wrong on it being a higher low for a wave 2 pullback, as if the low on the 28th is say in the 7500 zone then we'll likely still see the 7400 area, which would then suggest it will be the few days after the election.  Then again, the next week the big rally should start.

Now, this decline into the 28th and/or the 5th/6th is likely going to be very controlled so the sheep don't panic.  I think it's going to decline in a stair step manor inside a falling channel.  The larger B wave up only has today to reach whatever high it plans on reaching as by Friday we should be in the wave 1 down inside the C wave.

It's been a tough market and I don't think it's going to get any easier.  The 787.13 FP on the SPY has really caused me some pain as I never shorted the triple top but this C wave down is an opportunity for a small gamble short I think as this market should be in the 7400-7500 zone by the 28th, and that's a good risk/reward with trading I think.

Have a great weekend.

Wednesday likely ended the first pullback from the October 6th "first high" area. If so, then the expected low cycle date of the 16th "could" have arrived early? We could still pullback into that date but it might be a higher low instead of "the low" for the ABC down from the current all time high, which is likely a wave 4, and that leaves just the wave 5 up left to hit the FP of 787.13 on the SPY.

It's still unknown if the wave 4 down is complete or not, as the drop on Wednesday looked like a wave 3 inside a C wave, and that opens the door for a wave 4 bounce today and wave 5 down tomorrow to finish that C wave. Or, the wave C ended at the low on Wednesday and the bounce today is a wave 1 up in the final 5th wave, with any pullback on Friday being a wave 2 of that wave 5 up.  Into the close Wednesday there was a small bounce for a wave 4, and the futures did a wave 5 down, which again, could have ended it all that day.

Below is a chart of the wave count if the low was Wednesday...

The "second high" windows is next week the 20th-22nd, but it might hit earlier since it's possible that we bottomed earlier (at least so far that seems likely).  Meaning... it could be 16th-19th.  Wouldn't it be crazy to see tomorrow put in the high into the close before the weekend?  It's possible, and would take everyone by surprise if no one is short and Monday opens down and keeps going down.

That doesn't have to happen of course as tomorrow could still go a little lower, but either way we still have the final 5th wave up still coming and it should top early next week at the latest, and since the market failed to hit the 787.13 FP on the first high it must hit it this next time as that window is the last point where a high of some degree can appear before the cycles say we go down into the election.

Below is a chart if there's one more lower low on Friday...

In both cases there's still one more move up and once done there shouldn't be any bears left.  For me, this is the short of a lifetime as the speed of it will be so fast that it will look and feel like a crash. I guess you can call it a mini crash or flash crash, but I view a crash as more like 20% or higher.

This coming drop will only be 12% (assuming the downside FP's are the target low), but it's still a huge money maker for those brave enough to short it. And the 50%-61.8% fast bounce back up is another huge money maker, which I will be playing too. It's been a long time waiting for this FP and everything points to getting hit early next week. Once hit very few will short the market as it will put the ES very close to 8000, like 7950-7960 roughly, so most traders will wait for 8000 as it's a magnet for the market they will say. That's true, but it won't hit on the first attempt. It should hit late in the year, like during the Christmas rally possibly.

Others won't be focused on the 8000 so much but will be thinking the market will top into the election and crash afterwards, but that should not happen. Prior cycles all point to a low into the election, or right in front of it a few days, and a rally afterwards. What could cause the drop you ask? Who knows? It really doesn't matter as something will be blamed on it, but really it's just in the cycles.

Maybe it will be something to do with the election? Maybe that "thing" will force Trump to send out the National Guard to the polling booths to make sure the elections aren't stolen again? Just speculation here on that, but something will be blamed for the drop and it's not for me to worry about what that "something" is. Just stay focused on the 787.13 FP getting hit into the cycle window of the 20th-22nd and short it. Then look for the 7063 FP on the ES and/or the 692 FP on the SPY as the exit points, and areas to get long for the big bounce. It's been a long wait but it's all about to play out next week. Good luck to everyone.

Have a great weekend.

Today is a very important day for "if" we hit the FP of 787.13 on the SPY it's "GO TIME FOR THE BEARS!" as the first drop should at least reach the two FP's in the 715 zone. I've been looking at several past cycles that are in alignment with the current market and most all of them retrace down to the prior major top zones from prior months back, which in today's case would be the 7063 FP on the ES and the 692 FP on the SPY.

They don't stop at the prior lows, like the 6/9/26, 6/26/26 and 7/29/26 lows today. Most of the prior cycles had similar low points that were all higher then the months prior where a topping area formed. For today's market the topping area was built during the month of January to February of this year. Oddly the June 2nd, 2026 FP's on the SPY of 692 and 7063 on the ES were put out on that day which was a high before a pullback.

And the FP of 716.58 was the low on 6/26/26, which is still showing on the daily chart right now. I just don' think that this market is going to stop at that FP and the 714.68 on the next big drop as this drop should have a lot of momentum in it and big very fast. We already have 3 prior lows in that zone so this will be the fourth hit of it, so I don't think it will hold this go around. I'm really leaning toward the 692 FP and the 7063 FP as they seem more "real" and are supported by prior cycles where the major topping zone from prior months were hit and had the big support zone where a 50%+ bounce followed.

If that happens this week then anything is possible for the second drop into the end of the month... meaning it's possible that 600.14 FP could be hit. I know I said that we should make a higher low into the election, and that's certainly possible, but I want to remain open to something crazy happening. I say that because of how important this coming election is and how some crazy event could happen to cause the second drop to become a crash of 22% to the 600.14 FP instead of the higher low that I would normally look for if the 692 FP is hit on the first drop.

It's not going to be easy but after the first drop, and bounce, I think anyone brave enough to short the second drop shouldn't do it on money they can't afford to lose. It could make you a fortune or be a complete loss, so "if" I decide to short it I will just be risking part of the money I made as profit on first drop. Basically there will be a major low coming around the end of the month and that low could be either a typically higher low or a crash low.

Regardless of which one it will be, a super important low where an incredible long can be taken. Of course if the upside FP of 787.13 is not hit today then the odds of two large drops will be slim and the pullback into the 16th should be a mild one and the move back up into the 20th-22nd should then hit the 787.13 FP... and from there we drop to the 692 FP and/or the 7063 ES FP, which when you look back at the highs from the January - February period both FP's are pretty much in that zone. It's going to be a wild month, so get ready for the opportunity of a lifetime. If the upside FP is hit today I'll be shorting it and targeting the 692 FP.

As for the 600.14 FP... because the market should rally back up into the end of this year to hit and pierce 8000, and because the cycles point to a pullback in the first quarter of 2027 that will be bigger then the current pullback coming, I lean toward that FP being hit in February or March of next year.  And I think it could be another False Flag that will be created to cause the drop... like COVID 2.0 blamed on an outbreak of the measles or mumps possibly to get more sheep to line up and roll up their sleeves to take another poison shot.  Just speculation here on "what" will happen, but I do lean toward that period being the time when the 600.14 FP will be hit.

The chart above is what I think is unfolding or will unfold based on The Economist 2026 cover, which I think the stock market chart shown is not just for 2026 but extends into the first quarter of 2027.  I don't think the chart reflects the degree of the moves up and down but simply points out the overall pattern that will unfold, but the larger moves do reflect as being important it seems.

Point 7 on the chart makes you think it's a lower high then the coming one today (or into the 20th-22nd window?) but I don't think that's the case.  Again, I don't think the chart tells you the degree of the moves.  I think we retrace all the coming drop this month into the end of the year and hit and pierce 8000 to make everything look positive for the year.

Good Luck to everyone...

Have an blessed day.

One more move up to hit the 787.13 FP target, which might hit today (seems unlikely), tomorrow, or Monday at the latest. After that there are two windows of time where a low should appear. One is around the 16th of this month and the other around the 28th, but I do not know what the price will be at either low (meaning the 715 FP's or the 692 one). I've went over all the different scenario's that I can think of as possible, so we just have to wait and see I guess.

As for my lean... I think we hit the 715 zone FP's on the first drop to fill them both, and then bounce hard for 3-4 days, followed by another drop into the end of the month to retest that low and "ideally" piece it to hit and fill the 692 FP. That would be a perfect ABC drop to reach about 12% in total for the entire move and the first move down would be around 9% (the A wave).

If it drops to the 692 FP into and around the 16th then of course I think that will be the low and the next drop into and around the 28th will be a higher low of some degree. You have to be flexible as either pattern could happen, but the date "windows" should be pretty accurate for "a bottom" of some amount. Meaning that "if" by around the 16th the market has not declined very much, like only to say 7400-7500, then that's all there will be for that drop as a bounce should follow afterwards that last for 3-5 days (max).

Then the C wave down into the end of the month will reach the FP's around the 715 zone, or the 692 FP if the market really wants to scare the crap out of everyone. Personally I would love to see the first drop go all the way to the 692 FP and then a higher low for the second drop, but the market doesn't usually give me what I "prefer" as it's job is to trick everyone. But I'm getting ready and prepare for all outcomes as I only need to catch one of the scenario's correctly as the gains from that one move will pay for any other mistakes made on other scenario trades. Today or tomorrow should see the upside FP hit and the decline should start next week. Slow at first and then it should pick up steam later in the week. That's everything I know to share.

Have a great weekend.

Last week I discussed that the first drop after the high would hit the two FP's around the 715 SPY zone and then bounce hard for a wave 1 up, and then a wave 2 down for a higher low into the end of the month around the election. I did that because I just don't think they will allow an ABC drop where the C wave down hits the 600.14 FP on the SPY to end it all.

I want to cover another possible scenario where we have a lower low into the end of the month for a C wave, but in this case we hit the 692 FP on the SPY for that last move and the 715 zone FP's are the A wave (meaning... still no crash to the 600.14 FP). There's also another FP on the ES (super rare) showing a low of 7063.00, and it's from June 2nd 2026 too, just like the 692 FP.   Below are both fake prints

Ironically from the expected high of 787.13 on the SPY to either the 692 FP or the 7063 ES low is about a 12% pullback, whereas the first drop to the 715 FP's is about 9% or so. This makes the most sense to keep the market from really crashing hard (like the 600.14 FP, which would be 22%), and allow it to rally back up into the end of year to finally take out the 8000 level.

So... we have to be open to either a higher low for the second drop, as discussed last week, or a lower low, as I'm pointing out here.  I try to cover all possible scenario's and then once we are in the move try to figure out which one is right.

This would follow the pattern from the 2000 Chart that I posted previously on my September 25th, 2026 update.  Of course it won't follow exactly but the main point to note is that there will be two drops, not one that marks a bottom, rallies some for a wave 1 up, and then a pullback for a higher low (a wave 2) as suggested in my October 1st, 2026 update.  Below is that chart again...

The reason I'm pointing it out as possible is due to the FP's that I have.  The two in the 715 zone are so close that I find it unlikely that the first drop won't hit and pierce them both, therefore fulfilling them and ruling out a second drop to the same area.  Instead, the second drop must be either a higher low or a lower low.  I know everyone would love to see the 600.14 FP be the target low but I really don't think that will be allowed.  I think they will keep the entire correction to a 10-12% decline.

So, that opens the door for the second drop to hit and pierce the 692 FP on the SPY, or just the 7063 ES FP, which is quite a bit higher then the level the SPX would be at if the 692 FP was hit.  My calculations point to the 6944-6954 level on the SPX when the SPY is in the 692 area.  On the ES that would be 50-60 points high, which is around 7000.  Now all the FP's I've tracked over the past 17 years always hit and pierce by a small amount.  But this ES one is actually the first one I've every seen.  They are always on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, etc... (meaning the cash market), so I can't just pick one or the other.  I have to stick with the 692 one (which could be from 692.00-692.99 as I don't know the "cents" part), and just allow for a larger pierce on the ES since I don't have a track record of it.

Meaning... the 7063 ES FP could hit and pierce all the way down to around 7000 on it so that the 692.00-692.99 FP on the SPY can be hit and fulfilled too.  If the market decides to follow this pattern then the first leg down (the A wave) should reach (and pierce) the 714.68 FP on the SPY so that it and the 716.58 FP are both fulfilled.  The time window for the low should be between the 10th-16th as this drop should happen very fast.

Then a strong bounce back up for the B wave that should reach at least 50% but most likely will reach 61.8% of the A wave.  On the ES the resistance on that bounce will be the 7600-7700 zone, and will be the ideal short for a possible C wave for those brave enough to risk it.  Remember that the bears will be fully awake then and I could be wrong on it making a lower low.  It might make a higher low (a wave 2) like I covered in last weeks update on October 1st, 2026.

But... assuming I right on this scenario the C wave should bottom around the election and the 692.00-692.99 FP zone on the SPY would be the target low.  If they pierce 7000 a hair on the ES (and more of course on the SPX) the bears will be fully loaded short looking for the March 30th, 2026 low to be next... but it won't happen.  From January to March of this year the market put in many tops around the 7000 zone, which will act as major support when hit.  That will mark the bottom and from there we will see an explosive rally into the rest of the year.  We could see 8000 hit by December 31st if they get enough bears trapped, and I think they will.

To sum it all up...

I've covered ever pattern that I can see as "possible" over the last several weeks in different updates.  Which one will it be is the question I can't answer, but this current one has the most FP's lining up correctly to give the highest odds.  Not sure what to think about the 600.14 FP but predicting "when" any FP will be hit is always super hard.  This month of October has the best cycles aligned up to fulfill every FP except that one.  I'm just going to target the other FP's for my shorts and remain flexible and will adapt if needed.  The bottom for the entire correction should still be around the end of this month and/or into the election... no matter what price level it's at (higher low or lower low).  Once that period arrives I'll be looking for longs ONLY!

One more thing...

This is a Wildcard but certainly possible.  If the market declines to hit the 7063 ES FP, and the 692 FP on the SPY (around 6950 SPX), on the first decline, the lows will be extremely likely to be "in" at that bottom and any second decline later in the month will be a higher low for a wave 2 as covered in my prior update.  This would be a crazy move for sure but it is possible that all the FP's (except the 600.14 one) get hit and fulfilled on the first drop.  Needless to say I'll be loading up super long in both short term, medium term, and long term positions as we could be at 8000 by the end of the year.

If the drop is very fast the first move back up from that low should retrace 50%-61.8% within 3-4 days.  Then it will be a chop mess until the election where the next low will appear, and should be a "higher low" then the first one.  Basically a wave 2 pullback with the wave 1 up being that first snap back rally of 50%-61.8% in the first few days.  This would setup a wave 3 to launch after the election.

For me, I will only be interested in trading the first drop to the FP's and the first retrace rally afterwards.  Then do nothing until the election and get long for the wave 3 into January (meaning I wouldn't trade that wave 2 pullback as it will chop you up big time).

Good luck.

The market likely bottomed into the close yesterday with that fast drop to make a slightly lower low. The short term wave count is very hard to figure out, but everything points to the last rally up to the FP of 787.13 on the SPY starting now. It still should top between October 2nd and the 6th, but I don't know which day it will happen.

If it happens into this Friday it's the short of the year I think. If it drags out into next week that's fine too, and I'll be ready for either one. Once it's hit and pierced the market should rollover and start a decline that will likely be very fast and will bottom at either the fake print of 716.58 or 714.68, and the window for the final low is the 16th to the 28th... but, we could see two drops. I know I've mentioned the 600.14 FP many times as a possible "final" low but Trump really needs to have this midterm elections be a win for the Republicans, so I really don't think that kind of drop will be allowed.

I suspect that any drop that happens early to mid-October will wake up the bears massively and they will short the bounce big time. That tells me that there will not likely be another huge drop to hit the 600.14 FP into the end of the month. Instead, it will be a controlled drop that could just put in a higher low, or a double bottom low. Meaning that we could just hit the FP of 716.58 on the first drop, and then 714.68 on the second drop. I posted a chart on X about it, and below is that chart.

Now it's possible that both the 716.58 FP and the 714.68 FP get hit and pierced on the first drop, and then I'd look for a higher low into the end of the month instead. Basically, the hitting a piercing of the two FP's will end the correction and then a wave 1 up will follow, which should be 50-61.8%, and then the drop after that, which should end by the election, will not take out that prior low but will be maybe only a 61.8% or even at 78.2% retrace.

The point is that it will be a higher low and every bear in the world will be looking for the prior low to be taken out, but it won't. Instead it will trap them in a short position to fuel the wave 3 up to follow. This is of course just my speculation, but you have to look at the "fear factor" of the first drop.

If it's really spikes the VIX then all the bears will see it and will short heavily the bounce back up, but if the first drop is slow and controlled then the bounce should only be 38.2% to 50%, and with that scenario I'd be open for the second drop to be a massive one that could hit the 600.14 FP... depends on where the first drop ends? If it pierces both the 716.58 FP and the 714.68, and again, does this drop slowly and controlled, then the 600.14 FP is possible. But if we only pierce the 716.58 FP on the first drop I'll lean toward the 714.68 FP being the low for the second drop into the election.

Of course that suggests that the bounce back up will be at least 61.8% and that it will chop awhile before rolling over for the last drop, and that drop will be the scary one. It's all very fluid and I have to wait to see how it unfolds. But I suspect the first drop will be over by the 10th-16th, which again... could be the lowest low. Then the bounce and either a higher low (a wave 2 pullback) or lower low (a C wave) to either the 714.68 FP or the 600.14 FP. Lot's of variables here, so I have to see where the first drop ends at to forecast the second drop. I'll repeat this again... if we ONLY pierce the 716.58 FP on the FP, and DO NOT hit and pierce the 714.68 FP, then that lower FP could be the low into the end of the month or election. Or, if both the 716.58 FP and the 714.68 FP are pierced on the first drop then the door is open for either a higher low for the second drop, (no FP for any target... 61.8%?), or the 600.14 FP for a crash low.

How to trade it... for me I'll be targeting the 716.58 FP and the 714.68 for the first drop and where I'll exit and go long for at 50% to 61.8% bounce. I might skip the drop after that (depends on what happens) and will look for the next long around the election at whatever price it falls too. That's my plan... good luck to everyone that trades it.

Have a great weekend.

The market is playing out as forecasted with the wave 3 of 5 up finishing Monday and the wave 4 of 5 pullback starting afterwards and is still in play. It has retraced about half the move up from the September 16th bottom where this all started from. I suspect that it is finished now with the premarket low Thursday (or will finish soon with one more push down) and that next week we will see the final wave 5 of 5 unfold.

It will likely subdivide into 5 smaller waves as "time" will need to be burnt off so it's not likely going to be a fast move. With next Friday being October 2nd, and the weekend afterwards (plus a new month) I would not be surprised to see the squeeze up to the 787.13 FP on the SPY happen that day. It would be the perfect bull trap as everyone would look for 8000 to happen the following week, but that should not appear. Bears will miss the move down too as they won't be short as they too will be looking for 8000 to get hit as well. Then something will happen over the weekend that will cause the following Monday to gap down.

What that news will be is unknown of course, but that's the way the market works. There's always some news to blame a huge rally on, or a huge decline. Predicting the news is impossible, but the cycles in the market do repeat and they now say that the October 2nd-6th window is where the top will occur, and the FP is the price level.

How low will is go is the question I can't "positively" answer. There are two fake prints around the same zone that will end up being about a 10-12% correction if hit from the upside FP. They were mentioned in last weeks post, which again are 714.68 and 716.58, and I'm just going to the lower one as they will both likely be hit on the decline that's coming.

Then there's the 600.14 FP, and that one is of course a much deeper correction (about 22%), and could be the final target into the November election? I mean this market could drop once to the 715 zone and then bounce really hard (a "B wave"), and drop again really hard in a C wave to the 600.14 FP to finish the entire move in a wild and crazy ABC correction.

This kind of move happened in the year 2000 where the market topped on 3/24/2000 (a Friday) and dropped hard into 4/4/2000 for the A wave... which actually recovered the low that very day! It would be like we hit the 714.68 FP (the lower one so both are fulfilled) on some day in early to mid-October, and reversing back up the same day to close only slightly down.

That was a crazy move back then, and that bounce (the "B wave") last into 4/10/2000 before the market fell apart again for a huge 4 day drop into 4/14/2000 where the C wave bottomed at. Now that was the start of a multi-year decline, and I'm not expecting the rest of that chart to repeat as the bigger picture has this market still in a long term bull phase, and back in 2000 that bull phase was ending. Currently the bull phase should last several more years, but the "pattern" the market made back then is exactly what it's repeating now, so be aware and ready to exit all shorts at the hitting and piercing of the 714.68 FP once the decline starts.

There are other patterns from other years that the market is tracking very closely too, and all of them point to a large decline coming in October that ends around the November election. They also "all" have one more high before the drop happens, which currently is the 787.13 FP, and the time window is the 2nd-6th, so next week is the time we have all been patiently waiting for.

It's a massive opportunity for anyone willing to risk some money on a short to make a huge return. The 714.68 FP on the SPY equals around 7167.89 on the SPX, (the ES is 60-70 points higher) and ironically that's around the 200 day simple moving average. It will be a logical place where a strong bounce should happen from as most pierces of it in the past produce a strong bounce from. If the market tops on the 2nd (just a guess) then the entire drop to that level could happen in the following 4-6 days... meaning that the following Friday (the 9th) we could be hitting that fake print. Of course if we do bottom there everyone will be short over that weekend and the following Monday would produce a massive squeeze to start the B wave up.

Again... all speculation but if I were SkyNet I'd do it that way. I'd do a spin on the 4/4/2000 drop and reversal intraday, whereas this time I'd close hitting the 714.68 FP on Friday October 9th and open Monday the 12th with a massive gap up that squeezes all the bears out, and then I'd reverse into the close to go right back down again to start the C wave into late October where the final low will be the 600.14 FP. This would be a nightmare to trade for most people but a dream move for me as I have the FP's as targets and the patterns and turn windows. One thing for sure... October is going to be a wild month. Get your engines starts and get ready to rumble.

Have a great weekend.

The market appears to have bottomed for now, in what I think was an ABC wave 4, where I can see that the C wave subdivided into 5 waves, and ended at the low on Wednesday. If this is correct we started the wave 1 up that day, which is inside a bigger wave 5. Since this 5th is expected to hit the 787.13 FP on the SPY into either the window of September 22nd-24th, or October 2nd-6th, we should see one of two scenario's unfold.

If the market wants to drag out the 5 waves up to finish the 5th wave then it will top around the October 2nd-6th date, and that means more subdividing waves. Since the wave 1 up started at the low on Wednesday the wave 2 pullback should appear soon, and then the wave 3 up should divide into 5 smaller waves so that it tops out between the 22nd-24th. Then a wave 4 pullback that's probably an ABC, and a final wave 5 up into the 2nd-6th, which again could subdivide to drag out more "time".

This pattern would mean that the top of the wave 3 next week should not hit the FP on the SPY but should get close to it. Possibly a slightly higher high on ES (it's on the December contract now and 65 points higher the then SPX), but slight lower on the SPX cash? Then the move up into October 2nd-6th will hit the FP of 787.13, which is now around 7950 or so on the ES. If that happened everyone would say that 8000 is next, but if it just barely pierces the FP there's no reason for the ES to reach the 8000 level and it could just rollover right then and there.

The other scenario is that we see 5 waves up into the 22nd-24th next week to complete the 5th wave and hit the FP then... which would be followed by a pullback of some degree (probably not large) for an A wave (or at least the wave 1 inside the A wave) and the B wave up (or the wave 2 inside the A wave) makes a lower high into October 2nd-6th.

This is just like the 9/21/2018 top and pattern where there was a wave 1 inside an A wave that followed (small pullback) and a wave 2 inside the A down that made a slightly lower high on 10/3/2018. After that the wave 3, 4 and 5 for the A wave followed and that would be the move down the the 692 FP on the SPY. Something else to note is that there are now two FP's that are similar in price that should be added to this story.

There is the "New FP on September 10th 2026 for the SPY at 714.68" and the "New FP on June 26th 2026 for the SPY at 716.58", which are close in price so I'm just going to refer to these fake prints as the 715 one's. It's possible that they will be hit on the wave 3 of the A wave down and the wave 5 will hit the 692 fake print. Then some kind of bounce for a B wave and the C wave then takes the market down to the 600.14 FP into the election. It would be similar to 2018 but sped up in "time" as that one dragged out into Christmas, and I don't think that will happen again.

With the rumors of Trump giving everyone a $5,000 check, which it would be wise to do it right before the election, I have to think that money will be a huge stimulus to the stock market... and if it's right a the 600.14 FP too, look out for the mother of all squeezes!

From X two days ago...

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/2100192569552404861

Have a great weekend.

The market is getting close now to a bottom, but it's not known if it's going to the 7500 zone or if it just double bottoms (higher low) with the recent low last week. It's not important as it's not something that can be traded with any hope of making a profit. The best move of the year is still a few weeks away, and is the short for the 10=12% correction.

The range for the upside "Fake Print" of 787.13 to get hit (and pierced) is still around September 22nd to October 3rd. It's a wide window but it's reminding me a lot of the 2018 FP that appeared on February 27th of that year, which was for 293.90 on the SPY, and then hit on September 20th, 2018... which was pierced by only 4 cents (293.94). The market pulled back very small (more chop basically) and went back up to retest that high (slightly lower high at 293.21) on October 3rd, 2018.

After that it fell apart and bottomed into October 29th with an ABC pattern down. It rallied half the drop and did another ABC down into a Christmas Eve final low, but I'm not expecting that part to repeat. If we see the 692 FP hit into the coming November election I think that will be "the low" and we won't see the 600.14 FP until some other time in the future. I suspect everyone will pick up the 2018 pattern when the 692 FP is hit and will short the rally up after it expecting to see it repeat into another Christmas low, but I don't think that will happen.

I am open to the idea that the 600.14 FP is the low into the election, and that the first drop down to the 692 low happens into October 9th-11th (in 2018 the first drop for the A wave end on the 11th). If we see this happen then we could see a similar move up like 2018 where we top for the B wave around the 17th and the C wave drops to the 600.14 FP into the election. That chart is below...

This is Path Number 2 that I mentioned last week, which is possible. I don't know what is coming in the near future but I feel like it will take some kind of "event" to cause the drop to happen to the 600.14 FP as that's very deep. It would end up being similar to 2018 in percentage for the entire correction as that one was 20.5% in total and from 787.13 to 600.14 is 23.8%... so that's "close" to the same. What kind of event could cause such a drop you ask? I don't know but I found the video below very interesting at the 32 minute mark.

If something bad happened to Trump the market would fall off a cliff for sure. I certainly don't want anything like this to happen but he is up there in age and very overworked with tons of stress on him, so he's susceptible to having health issues. I pray nothing happens, but the FP's are real targets that will be hit at some point... when is always the "unknown". Maybe it will be some other unknown event that happens to cause the drop to the 600.14 FP into the election? If that's the plan then let's hope it's something else.

Something BIG is coming according the Bo Polny, and while you can't always assume that anything he predicts will affect the stock market I have the FP's, the seasonal's, and the cycles to back up his prediction.  Below is his latest video, and around the 1 hour mark is when he talks about the stock market.  Do note that his super important date of September 24th is right in the middle of the 9/22 to 10/3 window that the cycles say a high should happen at.  Possibly we hit the 787.13 FP on the 24th, or the day before?

For the short term there's nothing to add as the market continues to chop in a tight range that is not tradable in my opinion. I'm waiting patiently for the upside FP of 787.13 to get hit (and pierced) sometime in the next 2-4 weeks.

Have a great weekend.

Same ol' same ol'.... the market continues to chop around going basically nowhere. Everything from last weeks' update is still valid and on track as I'm still expecting more rangebound action into the expected low around the 9th-11th. I don't know "how low" but I suspect the 7500 level will hold.

After that the market should turn back up for the rally up to the 787.13 fake print target on the SPY, which is about 7900 or so on the ES, and of course these fake prints get pierced through by some amount, so the low 7900's on the ES should be reached. It goes back to my thinking that once we get that close to the 8000 everyone will be super long looking for it to hit, but it should not hit as we all know that if everyone is on the same side of the boat it usually rolls over.

We'll see 8000+ but not until "after" a correction of 10-12% (most likely) or a deeper one to the 600.14 FP on the SPY. After the low the next rally up should last into January of 2027 where 8000 will be hit and surpassed. But the correction must happen first as the market will need everyone to believe we are going much much lower, and of course that means a nasty drop has to happen to get the bears fully awake.

The turn window of September 22nd to October 2nd is still likely for the top, and after that the next turn window is around October 9th for a low. Will that be the 692 FP low is the question I can't answer? Maybe it's just a shallow pullback to the 7500 area (again... if we hit it going into 9/9-9/11) for an A wave down, then a B up into mid-late October and the C down into the November election to hit the FP. Or... we hit the 692 FP with that first drop into 10/9, then the rally up into mid-late October is either a B wave bounce (which could then have a C wave drop to the 600.14 FP afterwards), or a wave 1 up for the next 5 wave series of waves into January of 2027.

If it's the wave 1 up then the wave 2 down into November 3rd/4th should be a scary one that makes a "higher low" to make all the bears short it hard as they will think it's the C wave down to the 600.14 FP but the drop stops shy of breaking the prior low (the 692 FP) to trap them all short. From there the mega squeeze starts after the election with a wave 3 up. That pullback could look like a double bottom where it retraces 99% of the wave 1 up, but doesn't break the low. It is my lean to what I think is likely to happen.

You get everyone shorting the rally up from the 692 low (again around 10/9) and when it's back down to that same area around the election the news will be pumping out tons of fear about the election results and that will suck in the most bears. After the election is over (regardless of the results) the market will squeeze the crap out of them the rest of the year.

That's all just my speculation of course, as I could be wrong and we see the C wave down to the 600.14 FP into the election, but either way there are "key time points" that we should all focus on. One is the 9/22-10/2 where the 787.13 FP should put in the top. Then the 10/9 low window, and the 11/3 (final low) window. No matter how it plays out I think the best buying opportunity will be around the low into the election. Whether or not that's a higher low (then the expected 692 low into 10/9) or a lower low (the 600.14 FP) is unknown.

But I will setup my short around the 787.13 high, down to the 692 FP, with a window of time from the 9/22-10/2 top to the 11/3 bottom. If it hit into the 10/9 low I'll do very well and will go to case and wait on the bounce into mid-late October, and then let the last drop into the election happen without me onboard. I won't care if it hits the 600.14 FP or make a higher low then the 692 FP as the price level at that date won't matter... the only thing that will is the fact that it will mark an important bottom where a massive squeeze will follow. Keep your power dry and stay patience is what I'm doing, as two incredible opportunities are just weeks away now.

Have a great weekend.

The Dog Days Of Summer are here as the market continues to trade in a range. It did a fast squeeze last week on the 13th to make another new high, but has fell back since then. I was hoping that would be a nice "one day" wonder down day of 100-150 points but it squeezed higher instead.

Now we are in the pullback mode, and while I had hoped that we'd see the 787.13 FP on the get hit into the end of the month (still possible) I lean toward that turn date window to becoming a low instead. I suspect we are in an ABC down right now and yesterdays low ended the A wave, and we are in the B wave up now. It's probably some kind of wave 4, and I suspect it will end around the end of this month, which could be either the 26th, 27th, 28th, or 31st... that's the 4 day window.

Question is... how low will it go? I don't know of course, but I don't think it will take out the July 29th low. Most likely it will be a higher low then that level, and probably in the 50% to 61.8% pullback zone from that rally up to the current high. That rally started at 7324 and the top is 7838, so half of that would be 257 points down, or 7581. If it's 61.8% then that would be 317 points or 7520 roughly.

After that we should start back up for the final rally, and a lot of people are looking for 8000, 8200 or 8500 into mid-late September. It could happen but I just can't stop thinking about the 787.13 FP on the SPY as if we only reached that level (about 7900 ES) everyone would be so bullish, calling for 8000+, that it would be the perfect spot to top out and reverse back down with everyone long.

However, if this is going to play out I have to think we will pullback deeper first before doing the last big squeeze. I could be wrong and we could just chop in a wider range between 7500 to 7838 into the turn date of September 11th, where a low should appear. It's from that low that the market should start the strongest part of the last rally up. I'm thinking that the ABC wave 4 down, that we are likely in right now, will end around the end of this month... then a wave 1 will go up into early September, and a wave 2 pullback into 9/11, and from that low the wave 3, 4 and 5 starts for the final 5th wave up to wherever.

Again, we could go to 8000+ but I just think we might stop at the FP on the SPY and that's all we get. Maybe the pullback expected in the 11th will be back to 7500 or so... like a double bottom from the current ABC down for wave 4 that I think we are in now. From there we could easily squeeze 400 points in a few days to reach the 787.13 FP and then stop and go sideways for awhile to build a bull flag so that all the bulls load up long around that 7900 level looking for the breakout to 8000+, but then something happens and the market rolls over hard and starts the big drop to at least the 692 FP, if not the 600.14 FP on the SPY... who knows for sure?

Bottom line here is that I don't see anything I can risk a trade on until either the end of this month, or most likely the 9/11 expected low. It's a low volume market that the big boys aren't trading now but will be back after 9/11 to start putting money back to work. Will we get the blow off to 8200 or 8500 from it? Anything is possible but my past history with FP's tell me the top will be the slight piercing of 787.13 SPY in mid-late September.

Have a great weekend.

The market picked a direction and it's DOWN like the cycles suggested it should be. It's been super tough to trade as it's been in a choppy range for a month where every drop got bought up, but that 7400 zone of support finally broke yesterday and everything points to the market being in a wave 3 of C down now. It's looking likely now that the August 4th turn date will be the bottom, and I'm still looking for a pierce of the 7000 ES level where we hit the 692 FP on the SPY. Below is the wave count.

Short term (today or tomorrow) there's an upside afterhours FP on the SPY of 737.28, and it should be the bounce high before another drop lower. Best guess is that it hits today, but it might not hit until tomorrow? That FP in below (screenshot taken Wednesday night).

Lastly is the chart I posted on X on Tuesday, which I'm posting again below. It's obvious now that we are on the bearish path and should bottom next week around the 4th, and the 13th and 21st dates should put in higher lows. This assumes we hit the 692 FP into the 4th period, and I think we will. But if we don't then the 13th would be the next date when it should hit.

Have a great weekend.

Not much to add that hasn't already been said. The only change is that the wave 1 down inside C didn't go down as far as I wanted. It only went to the 7/8 low, and not the 6/25 low or 6/10 low that I thought it would hit. It stopped way higher at the 7/8 low, and has been chopping in a wave 2 ever since. When this wave 2 finally ends a wave 3 down should follow, and it should reach the 6/25 low at minimum, probably the 6/10 low. The "when" part is unknown, but it should start soon and end probably into next week.

Then some kind of bounce for a wave 4, and a final wave 5 down to complete the wave C into the first week of August. We should still hit the 692 FP on the SPY and of course pierce it. But it's quite clear that the volume is so low right now that it will take a "trigger" event to cause the wave 3 down to start. What that is... I don't know? But of obvious that we are in a big bear flag and a breakdown is coming soon. I really don't have anything else to add, so I'll end it here with a short post.

Have a great weekend.

IMPORTANT UPDATE... Alternative Wave Count

Chop, chop and more chop...

The market is frustrating both bulls looking for a breakout and bears looking for a breakdown. But a big move is coming soon, and there's very high odds it's to the downside. The ES hit a rising trendline yesterday morning in the futures and bounced off it into the open and then chopped around all day. This rising trendline has a falling trendline overhead, which together make a triangle pattern.

Once it breaks down the fall should be fast, and that breakdown should occur next week. Prior cycles show a bounce is possible from yesterday into Monday the 13th, but I doubt if it's a whole lot. Most likely it's just a move up to hit the lower falling trendline, which would be around 7590 if hit today, or slightly lower if hit Friday. I really don't think it will drag into Monday, but it's possible.

I suspect they will top it into Friday to lure in the last bull looking for a breakout, and shake out the last bear looking for a breakdown. That way they can use the weekend to release some kind of negative news so that Monday opens with a gap down. The bears will have missed it, and the bulls will be trapped long.

The drop should be scary as we should hit the 7000's by Thursday the 16th, where we could see the 692 FP on the SPY hit? Or that target is saved for the 23rd where the last low should be at, with a bounce after the 16th for a few days, followed by a capitulation flush out into the 23rd to hit the FP. It could hit the FP on the 16th though... that's certainly possible.

If so, the 23rd will be a higher low, but either way the move that will come out of the low on the 23rd will be a major one as it should rally into mid-September where the 787.13 FP on the SPY should be the target high. The coming down move next week is going to fool a lot of people, but I'm positioned and ready for it.

Have a great weekend.

Is The Bottom In?

I think it is...

The time line has extended but the overall plan hasn't. The market is still likely to have one more new high, but not likely this week. It should happen next week, like around the end of the month or the first day or so of July. We are not likely in the big drop right now, even though the last few days have been quite bearish. There's one more move up still highly likely to play out, and it should take out the current all time highs to hit the stops on the shorts. I posted the chart below on X yesterday and it's still valid.

Considering how big of an event the coming 4th of July is for America I don't think we will be tanking hard into it. After the new high next week, which could come on June 30th, July 1st or even July 2nd, the market should start the big correction everyone has been waiting on, but the bulk of the big drop won't likely happen until after the July 4th holiday.

Meaning the week of July 6th should be an ugly one I think, and this drop can last into mid-late July before the 6800-6900 bottom is reached. Since the week of the 13th is OPEX for July I suspect that will be the bounce area for some wave 4 up in a C wave down, and then the following week of the 20th is where the wave 5 down of C finishes the entire ABC correction. It's hard to nail down the exact date or price but that's a rough idea.

And I do think the 692 FP on the SPY will be hit and pierced, so we have that as our target... but it could just be the bottom of the wave 3 of C, and the wave 5 of C could be a retest that goes a little lower? Or it's the bottom of 5 of C and we stop in the 7000's somewhere for the 3 of C to do the bounce for 4 of C. My point here is that if you are planning on holding short until the FP is hit you might not see it until the week after OPEX and there could be a nasty bounce during OPEX to shake you out.

For the short term though, I think we bottomed yesterday and will start the last move up today, which will carry into next week. Again, we should easily take out 7700 ES and possibly reach 7800? I don't know the price high but if they want to make the market look great for the 4th of July it would need to get up high enough that everyone will start calling for 8000 and give up the bear case. I think 7800 would do it, as bears would throw in the towel at that point and go long at the top. We should NOT see 8000 until after the correction to the 6800-6900 area, whereas that's the starting point for the big squeeze into mid-September where 8200 is possible.

Have a great weekend.