We finally started a pullback, so now we wait and watch for the charts to get reset, which I don't think they will get fully oversold on the daily chart, and certainly not the weekly. The monthly is still super bullish so this pullback might last into early August to allow the extremely overbought weekly and daily charts to cool off, but after this pullback I think we rally hard for many more months.

How deep we pullback will decide how high we go and how long it last, so if it's just a mild pullback then we could top out faster but if it's a deep enough pullback then we could rally into the end of the year. Guessing the price on this is next to impossible, but there are some obviously targets based on support levels. The rising green trendline is the first one, and there's no point even looking at the lower one's until we see what happen in the next few weeks first. Here's a chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday.

This is the most bullish outlook with the smallest pullback and of course I'll have to adjust as time goes forward. Just keep in mind that the monthly chart is super bullish right now and the volume confirms it, so don't get crazy bearish if we get a deep pulllback.

Have a great weekend.

Yesterday I said there was an FOMC meeting and a CPI release, but I was wrong. It was only Jay Powell speaking and the CPI is this morning. I got my days off it seems... sorry about that. The market did what felt like a blow off squeeze the last part of yesterday, and with the CPI this morning that could be the case?

It's very overbought on most all time frames, so while the pullback might not be much in price (several hundred points), or percentage (4-6% ?), I do think it's going to require more "time" to play out. Meaning it should not be a 2-3 day event but instead it should drag out for 2-3 week I think. That's because the technicals will need that much time to cool off and reset before making another strong push higher. But everything points to that happening into late this year with 6000+ very possible.

The monthly chart is still very bullish, and the June closing candle actually put in a higher volume then the prior months. That means too me that as long as there is higher volume the market will go up more. It's only when you see a divergence between the volume and price that you know a top is near.

Currently that's not the case as volume continues to be strong. Where is that money coming from you ask? I don't know but possibly from foreign investors as they think our US Market is safer then theirs. And of course we don't know for sure but it's likely the Fed is pumping money into it to try and prop up the economy for "weekend at Bidens".

Regardless of who is doing it the facts are the facts, last months volume was the highest in the last year plus, any pullback we get in the coming weeks will be bought and another higher high in the following months will follow.

Have a blessed day.

More chop yesterday, but today we have the CPI and the FOMC, so there should be some volatility today. I really don't have much to add, as again, we are in the summer doldrums with light volume, which favors the upside.

A short term pullback is near but I don't know the exact day. It could last only 2-3 days or drag out for a week plus, but the final high is not in yet. After the pullback I'll start looking for the 6082 FET in the coming weeks to months. For today I'd just be prepared to see some kind of movement in both direction with an overall bearish lean into next week.

Have a blessed day.

Grinding a little higher, but that's fine as I'm patient and just waiting to see if the pullback happens as taking short right now is suicide in my opinion. Better to look for oversold charts to get long for a squeeze. This Wednesday when the CPI comes out before the open and later the FOMC is the most likely period where a turn can happen. But don't forgot the common pattern for FOMC days to close green.

They can be a turning period for sure but I've noticed a pattern over the years where the Thursday and Friday after any Fed day stays high and delays any bigger drop until the following week. Meaning we could see the on the Fed day and do a small A down Thursday and B up Friday, which leaves the C down for the following week. I'm not looking for a huge drop now, just about a 38.2% pullback from the 4965 low to the high. That could be 200-300 points basically. It's summer time right now and very hard to trade. It's a period to just take off and relax for many traders, which is why the volume is light. Nothing more to add so I'll end it here.

Have a blessed day.

I went ahead an took the day off last Friday even though the market was open. It was another up day as expected and we finally hit and pierced the short term FET at 5618, so a pullback of some degree is likely soon. With the CPI this Wednesday,and the FOMC meeting too, somewhere around there we should get move down.

But... the FET was from the 4963 low up to the 5368 high on 5/23, so it's only a short term pullback most likely. The bigger picture suggest we go higher into August, possibly September, where we hit the next FET at 6082, which is a medium term one that started at the 4122 low on 10/27/23 and connects to the 5333 high on 4/1/24. The ultimate upside target (a HUGE blow off top if this happens?) is the FET from the 3502 low in October of 2022 (a large FET) that connects to the same 5333 high, and projects 6465... and the super interesting thing about that FET is that it's super close to the ultimate FET that starts at the 2020 low of 2174 and connects to the 4808 high in 2022.

That one targets 6435, so if there's going to be a huge crash after the election I'd have to think that we'll reach that target beforehand. Longer term the best thing for the economy would be for that to fail and top at the 6082 high in August and pullback 1000-2000 points into 2025. Then start another bull run that last until 2028 possibly. That's too far into the future to figure out, so let's not worry about it now.

For the short term I'm looking for 200-300 point pullback this week and/or into next week. It's hard to predict the date as it could happen very fast. But I suspect it will be some ABC move where we get the A and B this week and the C next week. Basically about a 38.2% pullback of the rally up from the 4965 low to the current high, which is 200-300 points roughly.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterdays morning dip was bought right up as support held once again. We are close now to a breakout to hit the FET at 5618, which will run the stops on the bears shorting right now. Maybe it happens today, or tomorrow... I don't know? But we are close now. However, as I said yesterday, we might not see any strong move down until after the FOMC (and CPI) next Wednesday. But if we top this week then we could crave out a series of wave 1's down and 2's up (or A's and B's) to setup a bigger drop late next week. It's summer so don't get too excited as typically it's very boring.

Have a blessed day.

Still a lot of going nowhere yesterday as the market continues to chop. There's really nothing I can say that hasn't already been yesterday. I lean toward this Wednesday for the last push up, which is because it should be the lightest volume day, or Friday, which might be even lighter.

Once the Fibonacci Extension Target is hit I think we'll start a real pullback afterwards. But while I think it will be hit this week I could be wrong as they could wait until the CPI next Wednesday on the 11th to hit it and then start the pullback. Plus you have a Fed meeting that day too. Right now though we are in the "dog days of summer" where the market is boring and goes nowhere until some "event" sparks a big move, which should be aligned to overbought or oversold technicals. Patience is golden as the old saying goes.

Have a blessed day.

The market has spent the last several weeks in a choppy rangebound zone making another bull flag... but will it result in another month long rally? Anything is possible but I doubt if it happens this time around. The reason I say that is based on the past and how the technicals are aligned now, which similar patterns produced pullbacks from. Let's look at the daily chart below for example.

On it you will see that the MACD's and RSI were overbought during the prior similar patterns, just like they are now. And they produced a pullback in all the recent cases, which some were small and others bigger, but a pullback still happened. I'm only covering the period after the market bottomed in 2022 and started back up as we have to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges... meaning uptrends to uptrends and downtrends to downtrends.

At point 1 the weekly chart was very oversold but the daily got overbought on the MACD and almost overbought on the RSI. A pullback happened, which was a backtest of the 200 day moving average, a common event when the downtrend is ending and an uptrend starting. Point 2 gave only a small pullback, which I'm sure was because the weekly chart was pointing up strongly from being very oversold on its' MACD's and the RSI around neutral. It would have been foolish to short it back then based on that alignment, and the smarter move would have been to wait on the MACD on the daily chart to turn back up and go long. Point 3 gave us a deeper pullback because the MACD on the weekly chart reached the overbought level. Chart below.

As you can see now on the weekly (and daily) charts the pullback from point 3 needed to be a bigger one because both the charts got overbought on the MACD's and RSI. When more time frames align together there's always a bigger move, whether up or down, and in that case it was down.

At point 4 the weekly chart was pushing up strong again on it's MACD and RSI, reach the same overbought level as on point 3, but that strength keep the pullback small from the daily. Point 5 is where the weekly chart got very overbought on its' MACD and RSI but the daily chart only a little overbought, which is the opposite of point 3. But it still produced a nice pullback as pressure from the weekly forced the daily chart to rollover. As you can figure out by now the deepest pullbacks were from periods where both the weekly and daily charts got overbought and I must conclude that from looking at both charts currently they appear to be overbought together again.

Therefore there's little left on the upside on my opinion before we see a nice pullback. My FET at 5618 is still on the table I think and should be hit this week. I say that because of the expected light volume due to the holiday on Thursday for the 4th of July. But next week every trader should be back and the volume with it. So going into the 2nd week of July is where I think we could see a nice pullback happen.

Have a blessed day.

A rangebound market all week as expected. Today we rally some to close out this week and the month of June. The market is resting now before the next big move, which I still think is down 8-10%, but of course it could be up too. I mean, overbought charts can get more overbought, but they still suggest the move will be a down move. If we reach the FET next week, which seems likely to me, then the following week I'd look for the pullback. Light volume is very likely next week due to the 4th of July holiday, which tends to favor the upside, and as long as that happens the move after traders come back should be a down one. Nothing more to add here as this week has been as expected.

Have a great weekend.

The market is still under pressure from the bears but holding the range quite well. We have Jobless Claims out this morning, so we could see some small volatility, as well as GDP numbers. Overall though I'm still waiting for the last move up to hit the FET at 5618, which I think will be next week due to the expected light volume from the 4th of July holiday. Support is still the rising white trendline, and if it gets pierced the rising green trendline should hold. I don't think it will be hit but certainly possible. If we get more weakness today and part of tomorrow, then it will setup next week for that last move up.

Have a blessed day.

Another boring day yesterday, and today will probably be the same. There's just nothing to add that hasn't already been covered on Monday and this week is playing out as expected... a lot of chop. I don't have anything new to add as I still think we have one more move higher to hit my FET at 5618, and I think it will be hit before the 4th of July. My best guess is the 3rd but I could be wrong and we could hit it this week. We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday was pretty much as expected as we bounced early in the day and pulled back late in the day. I think this chop will continue all week with bounces intraday and small pullbacks too. I'm sure they will flip it from day to day where we sell off first and rally second but in the end the market should stay in a fairly tight range from the all time high down to as low as 5400, but that's only if the white trendline fails. Otherwise 5450+ seems more likely to hold the dips as that's around the zone where the white trendline is at now. Nothing more to add as I covered it all yesterday.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday was as expected, a nothing day. We did have an early bounce but it didn't hold and we pulled back again and just chopped the rest of the day closing slightly down. This is the last week of the June and as I said previously "turns" commonly happen around the end or beginning of every month. The technicals are overbought pretty much everywhere, from the weekly, daily and down to the 6hr chart.

But the time frames less then 6hr could get oversold early this week and allow for one more push up into the end of the month to hit the FET of 5618, which I think still has pretty good odds of it being reached. If this happens then the "turn" will be a move down of course, whereas if instead we pullback then the turn will be up... and this really feels like a lower odds forecast as I just think we are so close to the FET, and the bigger time frames are so overbought, that a significant pullback is coming. Not a 1,2 or even 3 percent move, but a possible 10% move, which should last for a few week I'd think so that the weekly chart can reset from being so overbought.

As far as "what" could spark the big move down I point to the CPI on July 11th as a possible one, and that's also the date President Trump gets his sentence about whether or not he goes to jail for being a patriot convicted of 34 felonys with no actual charges. Yes, we now live in a communism country, and if we pullback early July, (an A wave?) and bounce into the 11th (a B wave?), we could have a nasty drop follow that opens the door again for the FP on the SPY from the Yahoo site as a possible target again.

The 11th of July will be an important date for sure, and normally we pullback some in front of important dates due to the "unknown" factor, as most traders want to be less exposed. This could take the form of an A wave down and B wave up, or maybe do the entire ABC in front of it and bottom into it? I doubt that happens but anything is possible I guess. We could also top into the date but again, there's low odds of that happening in my opinion. Most likely we top this week or early next week around my FET and then start down into the 11th with a possible one or two day squeeze for the B wave in front of (or after) that important date.

For the short term I think we pullback to find support around the rising white trendline, which is about 5500 or so on the ES, then bounce and possibly do one more trip down to test it again (might pierce it?) before we rally back up for the move to hit by FET at 5618, which again... could be hit by the end of this week, or early next week.

Have a blessed day.

Finally... a pullback. But we failed to hit the FET at 5618, so I'm very leary of this move as I really think they will hit the FET before we get a deeper pullback. If it doesn't happen today then I'll still be looking for it to hit next week. Keep in mind that today is OPEX so I would not expect a whole lot to happen. They tend to "pin" the market at some level for max pain on options, so we could go sideways today.

Next week is bearish from a Seasonality point of view so the bulls will have that going against them, and very overbought charts. So the bulls will not want to give up much ground today if they plan on doing that last move up to the FET next week, which could happen in the Sunday futures or Monday open? I'll end it here as I don't have anything else to add.

Have a great weekend.

Almost at the FET of 5618 now as the bulls continue to grind higher inch by inch. I could say it's overbought until I'm blue in the face but that doesn't seem to matter when the bulls have a target that they want to hit, and with tomorrow being OPEX it wouldn't shock me to see it hit into the close Friday. I posted a wave count on 6/6 showing what I think is most likely, and below is that chart again.

As you can see the pullback would be deeper then the 5/31 low but higher then the 4/19 low. The part I got wrong on it was thinking that S1 would end at the rising green (or white) trendline and start S2 from there. Instead we seem to be headed start up to the FET at 5618.39 first, which should then end S1 and allow S2 to start. It tells me now that the wave count is probably wrong and needs adjusted as S1 seems too long to be right. So on 6/11 I did an alternative wave count, which is below.

On it I still point to the rising green (or white) trendline as the end of the move before the pullback, so that was wrong, but the wave count could still be accurate. If we reach the FET on this rally then we could be completing M5 inside L3, but the 5 waves inside the move would need relabeled as again, S5 seems too long in length compared to S3. Guessing the wave count is really hard and I have to continue to adjust, but the important thing here is that we are very likely going to hit the FET at 5618 this week and from there I expect a pullback into next week, which really the most important thing to get right for trading.

Have a blessed day.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday as market continued to chop and inch higher. This week is OPEX, so it's perfectly normal for this kind of action to happen. We are close now to the FET at 5618, and it could be hit at any time. I don't have anything else to add that hasn't already been said, so I'll end it here.

Have a blessed day.

The bulls didn't even pause at all yesterday, but went up steady all day. Not much to do here but watch and wait as my FET's are quite close now and could be hit any day now. We are very overbought on all time frames but again, the market can stay overbought longer then most can stay short.

I don't see any reason to even think about shorting right now as the market looks like it won't stop until it hits the upside FET of 5618.39, which reminds me a lot of the prior FET of 5334.39, and that one was hit on 4/1 with a high of 5333.50... but it got close on 3/22 at 5311.75, and then chopped for a week into the 1st.

Will that repeat again? It's very possible that we put in a top this week below the new FET, and then chop into the end of this month before we run up to 5618 or so on the 28th. That would frustrate a lot of bears and it would suck in a ton of bulls thinking the week plus chop was another bull flag that was going to breakout huge with another 200-300 point squeeze. But if it repeats the prior pattern it will just barely go higher to hit the FET and the rollover to start a real multi-week pullback.

Have a blessed day.

We have the roll from the June contract on the ES to the September now, which added 58 points on it instantly. I forgot about that when I did the wave count last week, so now it's busted as we are going higher and it's looking like the FET of 5618.39 could be hit before we get a serious move down.

The rising white trendline held for awhile but this contract roll caused a gap over it, so now it will be support. Of course we are overbought now on all charts pretty much, which is from the weekly to the daily and the 6hr chart. Here's the weekly...

So if, that's a BIG "if", we do rally up to the FET this week the market will be super overbought then and I could see nasty fast drop happen afterwards. I mean we could see something like the drop that happened after the January 2018 top, which was super fast. The charts will be that overbought if we rally up to 5618.39, which is crazy to think it could do it but we all know that overbought charts can get more and more overbought. Below is the daily chart...

The FET on the SPX is only 5581.86, so we could see this happen for sure as it's not too much high on either the cash or futures.  As far as turn dates, if we are going to rally up first, the 28th of this month will be the next important one.  So if we go no where this week but instead we just build another bull flag then I'd think we'll hit the FET on the 28th to finally top this market out.

I thought that we'd actually go down into the 28th, which is still possible, but we'd have to top today I think.  If that happens then we can drop into the 28th to put in a low before another strong move up happens.  Now if this happens I don't think it will be that deep, basically just a higher low.

However, if instead we rally up to the FET into the 28th then we could have a very serious drop follow, and possibly then that FP on the SPY is hit... who knows for sure?  All I can say is that the FET is a magnet and could be hit before any real move down happens.

Have a blessed day.

As expected we had a wave 1 down and 2 up yesterday, of some degree, which isn't important to know right now. There could be many 1's and 2's over the next few days before we get a good move down. As for today I don't see a lot happening as it's a Friday as we all know that it's common for the week of the FOMC to NOT have a large drop happen.

Next week is OPEX, so if my thoughts are correct we'll get an early pullback Monday through Wednesday and then a rally back up int Friday. The week after is when we should see the bigger wave down, which should be a C wave, and I think we'll bottom around the end of this month, which is Friday the 28th. Whether or not we make a higher low then the 4963 low or a lower low I just don't know.

Have great weekend.

We got the short squeeze I was looking for, and we hit the rising white trendline spot on (pierced a little). Everything looks good to me for the top being in for this multi-week rally. I currently don't see anything big on the downside yet as we should still do a series of wave 1's down and 2's up... meaning the pullbacks should be bought during the first week as bulls buy the dips.

This is typical in the early stages after a top happens. Now while odds are good that we will have a pullback I still don't know how much? I did another chart with shallow pullback, which is below.

Now this would change the wave count of course, and it's certainly something I'll be open to happening. My focus will be to just watch the technicals closely and let them give me clues on how low we go and how long this last. But until we get started I can't predict any downside target. Let's just let the market tell us.

Have a blessed day.