Big day today the CPI and the FOMC will certainly cause some big moves in the market one way or the other. My lean is still that we have a squeeze higher first before we start a multi-week pullback, but I could be wrong of course.

We might see a drop after the CPI and then it get completely erased back up after the FOMC? Or we rally on the CPI and drop after the FOMC... really hard to know for sure. It's just a guessing game here and the only thing to do really is just to let it play out in one direction or the other and look to take a position short (or long) based on where it goes after each event.

To me, I can't take any longs here as upside looks limited to me... maybe a 100 points of risk there, but the downside has risk of 400+ points in my opinion. The pullback should take out the 5205 low and make a move toward the 4963 low in the coming weeks, and if my wave count is right it will stop somewhere in the middle of that zone and end Small Wave 2 down. Here's that wave count again from 6/6 ...

If I'm wrong on my wave count, meaning we take out the 4963 low (and likely go to the FP on the SPY), then I'd then think that whatever high we get this week ends Medium Wave 5 and that the pullback will then be Large Wave 4 down. It could reach the FP on the SPY for sure, which would be around 4850 or so. Then Medium Wave 5 up will take us into an August or September high of 6000+ to hit my FET hopefully. Here's that chart below...

Have a blessed day.

Still missing one last wave up I think, which I thought we would see on Friday but it never happened... or did it? That new all time high midday could have been all there is for that final Tiny Wave 5 up to complete Small Wave 1 up. I have been thinking that last move up would hit the rising white trendline, but maybe it won't?

I'm still open to it hitting, which might hit on Wednesday after the CPI before the open, or after the FOMC at 2pm, but either way we are close to ending Small Wave 1 up and starting Small Wave 2 down.

I assume that it will unfold in an ABC pattern and could last until the end of the month, or sooner. I will add that many wave 2's retrace 61.8% to 78.6%, whereas wave 4's are usually 23.6% to 38.2%, so this pullback could be deeper then most expect, but I don't see it taking out the 4963.50 low where Small Wave 1 up starter. That's too far in advance to predict so let's get to the short term, which I think today and tomorrow we don't see much of nothing until Wednesday.

Then I'll just have to look at the charts on the short term to see if the RSI and MACD's get oversold or overbought into Wednesday as if they are oversold then odds will favor one more move up to "possibly" the rising white trendline for Tiny Wave 5, but if they are overbought then odds will favor the high being "in" for Tiny Wave 5 prior to the CPI and FOMC, so a move down should follow. That's what I see for this week.

Have a blessed day.

Not much to say today as yesterday did exactly what I thought... went sideways. It's forming a bull flag to breakout again and to run up to the white trendline of resistance. Fridays have been notorious for doing late day squeezes, so I wouldn't be shocked one bit if it happens again today. Whether it does it today or waits until Monday isn't really important as odds favor one more move up before we get a pullback. I covered pretty much everything yesterday so I'll just keep this post short and end it here.

Have a great weekend.

We've rallied into the green trendline now and made a new high. We will likely push through it by Friday and go for the rising white trendline. Again, I doubt if we get through it on the first attempt. The green trendline was hit in March, then May and this third time it should get through... so that's why I don't see it getting through the white line on the first time.

Now, will that be hit today? I don't know but if we go sideways today and/or tomorrow then I look for that push higher into Friday. Regardless of whether it's today, tomorrow or Friday it should end this rally and we should see a pullback start next week going into the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which has the CPI out the same day.

I haven't looked at the wave count in quite awhile, so let's look at it now. Below is the big picture.

As you can see the Medium Wave 4 pullback was the one that I was looking to hit the FP on the SPY from the Yahoo site, but it stopped short at 4963.50 on the ES, so the Yahoo FP was a dud it seems. From there we started Medium Wave 5 up, adn that's what we are currently in right now. It should divide into 5 smaller waves and those waves can divide into tiny waves too.

Have a blessed day.

The market is getting ready to make a move higher it seems, which this time around I think it could get through the green trendline of resistance, but the white trendline should be a lot harder to get through. If we get a breakout soon then I think we'll reach that zone and stop there and go sideways more under it into this Friday to give the appearance of another breakout, but I think we will be overbought on the 6hr chart then and will pullback next week in front of the FOMC meeting.

After that I'm not sure but the second half of June is normally weak from the Seasonality Chart, so I don't think we'll go much higher but instead we will pullback. How much I just don't know, so we'll have to wait and see where we are at then and what the technicals look like. Right now they are looking bullish still, at least for the short term. I still don't think the market is ready to start the big leg up to 6000+, as I think we won't start that move until July.

Have a blessed day.

A decent pullback yesterday, but it got bought back up as expected. Technicals are still bullish on the 6hr chart and the daily chart is mixed... meaning it could go either way. And the weekly is the same as yesterday... tired basically, with a slight downward bias.

It is still choppy essentially with nothing aligned all up together in sync to support a big breakout higher or a selloff lower. If we go up today and into tomorrow then we could get overbought on the RSI and MACD of the 6hr chart by Thursday, possibly as late as Friday.

That doesn't mean we will just rollover and drop hard but if we are overbought when up into the green or white trendline of resistance I'd have to think it will hold and we'll pullback again... which should be to at least revisit yesterdays low, probably lower. This is again just "guessing" on where the RSI and MACD will top out at, and my best guess is Thursday. The pullback would be into the next FOMC on Wednesday the 12th, which we've seen many many times, so this is probably how the rest of the week will play out.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday we did indeed see a late day rally as the RSI got oversold enough on the 6hr chart that squeeze happened. And it only reached the midpoint zone on the chart so it can go up again today if it wants too as it's not overbought yet. The daily is around the midpoint zone as well on its' RSI, so the bulls have the technicals on their side at least early this week.

If there is ever a time for the bulls to try and bust through the rising green trendline of resistance it would be now as the technicals favor them, and they have bears trapped, so there's no reason to give up now.

However, there's a rising white trendline of resistance above the green one, so I still don't think we are ready for another multi-hundred point non-stop rally to 6000+ yet. If we reach the 5400 zone I think that will be all there is for the bulls and that we'd drop back several hundred points in June to allow more time to pass so the weekly and daily charts can get setup better for a bigger and longer lasting rally.

The second half of June is still notoriously bearish, so that's where we should see another attempt to hit the FP on the SPY from the Yahoo site (if it is a real fake print, which is yet to be known).

Even if we don't hit it we should pullback to get close to the recent low on 4/19, and that could be a higher low which would be fine too. Then the summer rally can start and we'll see if the market can rally to 6000+ or not in the coming months. If they do that into September or so I'd be on high alert for a crash from some False Flag event the Biden gangster gang sets up to stop the election. Whether it's some attack from illegals coming into America or some made up virus I think we all know they have something planned. That's just speculation of course, and can't be foreseen in advance. But it's something to be aware of as possible, so keep your eye's open for clues they give us. That's all for now.

Have a blessed day.

The verdict is in now as the Demomcrats convicted President Trump on all count, but ZERO charges. They did not put him in jail, so the stock market is holding now. I gave it low odds of a flash crash and that's seems to be correct as even though they convicted him they did not have the guts to put him in jail.

Wise move as it already bad enough for them. This is going to rally more and more Americans to support President Trump and vote for him this November. The stock market should be close to a bottom now for this multi-day pullback. It's around the end of the month now too, which is where "turn's" commonly happen at.

I do not know though if the coming rally will be on to another new all time high or just a lower one. The daily chart is still overbought so I doubt if we get past the rising green trendline of resistance yet. The weekly chart is still overbought but it is trying to turn back up on the MACD's now. Problem is... today is Friday and it ends the weekly candle. So there would need to be a strong move back up today to get a bullish cross on it. I don't think it will happen.

I think we will go up next week but only for a lower high, or possibly a slightly higher one to tag the rising green trendline again. But I just can't see it getting through it yet as more time is needed to get the MACD and the RSI lower on both the daily and weekly chart before any really strong rally is likely to start. It's still looking to me like we are going to be rangebound for quite awhile into mid-late June.

Whether or not we hit that FP or not is just something I don't know? It's from a charting program (Yahoo's website) that don't have any track record of FP's being accurate. I have years of data for FP's showing up on Think Or Swim, so I know they work and are hit at some point. I'm just going to keep an open mind into June to see if we get a pullback that looks like it might get close. For though I'm just going to stick with a wide range bound trading area for several more weeks to allow the necessary time to pass so that the charts can reset from being so overbought.

Have a great weekend and God Bless President Trump.

The bears continues to put downward pressure on the market, but nothing too big yet. I get the feeling the market is waiting on the trial of President Trump, as if the demoncrats convict him and put him in jail we could see a mini-crash happen. I give it low odds but anything is possible.

I say that because the rally this year has been reported many times as the "Trump Rally"... meaning investors are buying in advance of an expect Trump victory this November. But if he's put in jail for no crime investors will surely panic and that's why I say we could see a flash crash happen.

Again, it's low odds, but it would certainly get the bears super bearish... which would provide tons of fuel for short squeeze after short squeeze as the market rallies up to 6000+ in this fall. Now I'm NOT expecting this to happen, and of course no one would see it or be short, but it's possible for sure. If it does then we know the target for the low will be the FP on the SPY. Now from a technical point of view we are getting close to oversold on the RSI of the 6hr chart, so a bounce back up should happen today or tomorrow.

The daily is just now rolling over and only about half way down now on its' RSI, and the MACD is still overbought. So a lot of room is still left on the them into the coming weeks if the bears want to push it down into mid-late June.

So, assuming there's no surprise mini-crash, we should bounce today or tomorrow and then rollover again next week. It should continue to have some bounces and lower lows until the end where I'd look for the flush out drop to last a few days, which ideally reaches the FP on the SPY. Again, I think this will be mid-late June, but that's just a best guess. Don't forget the common pattern of "turns" happening around the end of each month.

With today being the 30th and tomorrow the 31st, a "turn" back up for the bounce (which could last several days?) is near. This is what I see in the technicals and what should happen... as long as we don't get any surprise from some news event.

Have a blessed day.

Pretty much as expected yesterday... choppy. We went up, then down and by the end of the day it's a nothing day. I really don't have anything to add that wasn't said yesterday. We could swing up and down like this all week, and would could still be in a range from say 5200 to 5400, hard too predict the levels.

But I still don't see any big breakout that starts the next leg up to 6000+ as we need to pullback one more time before that happens. Now we could go sideways for another month I guess and that would reset the weekly enough to support a breakout that holds, and that's certainly possibly.

If that happens then the FP on the SPY is worthless I guess, or it's going to be hit later on many months from now. Could it be a low target for a fast flash crash like drop after we top above 6000? I guess anything is possible, so I can't rule that out. Maybe it's the low after a fast mini-crash into the November election? Could there be another false flag planned to keep Trump from winning?

The Demoncrats are very desperate right now so I would not put anything past them. I'm sure they are holding the market up too, and plan on topping it right before the election to keep Pedo Joe looking like it's doing it. Most Americans know better, at least I hope they do. Anyway, that's all I have. My lean is still toward the downside but every drop will likely be bought back up until the end.

Have a blessed day.

Nice pullback on Thursday but it was erased on Friday, so bears blew it again it seems. I don't see anything really bearish in the technicals right now, but the bulls are up against some pretty tough resistance from the rising green trendline overhead. So it makes me think this week is going to be a choppy one where not much is given up on the downside and not much is gained on the upside.

The monthly chart is still bullish and suggests this bull market could run for another 3-4 months. It will be super interesting to see how the monthly volume candle closes out this month as currently it's lower then the peak in the month of March, but higher then April. However, if it doesn't take out the March volume high then the "3-4 months left" will remain intact, but it will be canceled if a new volume high is made this month.

The January 2022 high in the market put in the monthly volume high in August of 2021, so the market rallied for 5 more months afterwards and then topped and dropped for all of 2022. Something similar should happen again, which is why I said 3-4 months is all we have left.

Now, the weekly chart has already peaked in volume back on the week of 12/25 last year. The MACD's peaked the week of 3/25 this year and made a bearish cross the week of 4/15, and have remained crossed ever since. It tells me that the market is likely going to be range-bound for awhile until those MACD's reset more.

They are still way to high I think to support another blast off rally. They need to pullback to the neutral line like the correction did from the week of 7/24 to 10/23 last year. However, the market might not pullback like it did then and just go sideways in a few hundred point range.

But I get the feeling that before they end that period they will take one week (the last one) to drop down to the FP on the SPY, but we might not see that for a month or more? What I saying is that I don't think we'll see any fast drop to the FP but a ton of chop up and down to frustrate both sides. Then at the end they will flush it down to the FP and reverse back from there to start the last multi-month rally to 6000+ into August or September.

As far as the daily chart goes it's closer to overbought territory but that doesn't mean it's going to rollover hard. It can get up into the full overbought zone and stay there for a long time when the monthly and weekly chart is support it. Currently the monthly chart is still pushing up but the weekly isn't, so this tells me that we won't see the daily chart get full overbought now as it doesn't have the same support it did previously... hence my reason for thinking we are going to be choppy for awhile, which should have a downward bias in the end.

Meaning it can hit the FP on the SPY to conclude it all. This could take a month to play out? I could see it lasting into early July if it really wants to drag out that long. Seasonality is bearish the last half of June, and it turns quite bullish after that, which last into mid-September.

So if there is ever going to be a period where that FP is hit I'd think that is it. From there I'd look for 6000+ in a blow off squeeze, which could be right into that mid-September period to match up with the Seasonality Chart... who knows?

In the month of June we have two important things that could give us that last move down to the FP, which is the Consumer Price Index release (CPI) on June 12th, and the Fed speaking on the same day for the FOMC meeting. Of course if we hit the FP going into that date then it's a mega buy, but if we are still away from it then I'd think we will hit it the week or two afterwards. That's all I see right now, which is big picture stuff. Short term is too clouded right now.

Have a blessed day.

The bears held the line yesterday and stopped the bulls from breaking through. The bulls tried really hard but got exhausted and the bears pounced on them producing a nice pullback. But today is Friday, which is typically bullish, so I would expect a "calming down" of the market.

I doubt if we see another large down day but most likely we'll bounce and close green, or at least a smaller red day. Odds favor a green close but if the rally is early in the day it could fade by the close and end red. Now from a technical point of view the daily chart is just getting started rolling over, so if the bears can keep the momentum going next week there is plenty of room left on the downside.

If this happens then I'd look for the end of the month for the bottom where a strong rally back up should follow. Now I don't know if that will be "the bottom", meaning we are off to new all time highs again, or just "a bottom", meaning we will have just a bounce and then another leg down in June. That's impossible to know, but from a "common pattern" point of view around the end of every month is where turns commonly appear. Lastly, don't forget that we are close on Monday for Memorial Day.

Have a great weekend.

Well, the pullback came before Nvida came out and then they used it to erase the pullback completely and rally back up to make another new all time high. We have the jobs number out this morning and that's the last chance for the bears it seems as it's looking quite ready to breakout to the upside now.

The only resistance is the overhead green rising trendline and white one. If bulls get through it (almost toughing it now) then I'd expect to see 5450+ pretty quickly. Bear must hold that line and take it lower today or tomorrow to get the weekly closing candle to put in a topping tail and roll the MACD's over.

I don't see another week under this overhead resistance as bulls are super close now to breaking out. Only a hard drop into the close on Friday to stop the weekly chart from turning bullish will save the bears. Will it happen? I just don't know? It's impossible to call the next direction from a week plus sideways move.

Bulls are very strong now and bears are super weak.  Odds are in the bulls favor of breaking out but don't forget the common pattern of "turns" happening over a 3 day holiday weekend.  We are close Monday for Memorial day, so bulls need to bust through the rising green trendline this week, like today ideally.  Then backtext it tomorrow and make it support.  If they can do that then they could grind higher next week.  But if they fail then they risk the bears making an attack next week.  So this overhead resistance is truly the goal line for the bulls, and I think this week is their 4th down.  If the bears hold it then they should take the ball next week.

The rising green trendline (5380) is the big resistance from the 2020 high, connecting to the 2022 high.  The rising white one only connects the recent highs in March, and it around 5415 this morning.  That's the zone basically that the bears need to hold.

So, everything is in the bulls hands right now as they are at the goal line.  Just a little more and they can rally to 5500 or more next week.  The close this week is super important as it will decide the fate for next week.  The weekly chart currently is turning bullish on its MACD's but it could also fail and rollover if the bulls don't score a touchdown here by getting through the overhead resistance this week.

Who will win?  I wish I knew but I don't.  I never saw this rally being so strong.  I was completely wrong on it, so I'm just watching to see what happens.

Have a blessed day.

More "basing" yesterday, which again is bullish 70-80% of the time. We have Nvida earnings today, which could cause a breakout or breakdown from this current range. A 100+ point move is coming and sadly for the bears it's looking like it's going to be up.

I have no way of knowing for sure but the daily chart still isn't overbought yet, at least not to the point where a pullback is needed to cool it off. It's doing the "cooling off" right now with this multi day sideways basing, so there's just as good of odds of this market rallying again as it is selling off.

Tomorrow we have the jobs data, so I don't think we are going to stay in this tight range much longer. A breakout or breakdown is coming, but I don't know which way.  It's coming soon though as I doubt if we can get past Nvida earnings or the Jobs numbers without some volatility.

Have a blessed day.

Another nothing day on Monday as the market continues to "base" to setup the next big move, which at this point it could be in either direction. This is the worst pattern for the bears as the bulls get a rest and that opens the doors for another breakout higher, not breakdown lower.

While a pullback is much needed that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Technicals on the daily chart are still bullish and NOT overbought yet. Yes, they don't have to get fully overbought before we pullback, but it does keep the door open for more upside.

The longer we go sideways the less the odds are for the bears, and the higher the odds for the bulls. I really just don't know which way this market is going to break, so this is really just a full gamble to take a short or long as it's 50/50 now I think. I don't have anything else to add. Just have to wait and see as sideways movement is impossible to trade.

Have a blessed day.

This has been a huge failure for the two FP's on the SPY from the Yahoo site as I'm still scratching my head as to "why" they were put out if they aren't going to hit them. It's been super frustrating to miss this big rally and to short it many times on the way up, only to see it go higher.

I'm sure we will have a pullback soon but with so many bears that are toast now, and all the bulls that missed the move up, it will be bought when it comes. And the technicals are still not overbought on the daily chart yet. That doesn't mean it has too get fully overbought before it pulls back, but it does mean that it could continue higher first before we see any pullback.

However, the 6hr chart is overbought so the upside should be limited now. We can see that is already happening as after the ES made a new high we've just been grinding sideways to slightly up.

I could make a case that it's "basing", making a bull flag, and that is true, but I think for that to work again I'd estimate that we'll need a week or more of "basing" to have another strong breakout leg higher. For example, back on 12/29/21 it went sideways until 1/5/22 to "base", which was after a new all time high too. But it failed to breakout and rolled over to start a year long correction. Now I'm not expecting that to happen again as the technicals aren't the same now as they were back then.

Technicals are closer to the 11/8/21 to 11/29/21 period, which produced a pullback to hit and slightly pierce the 50 day SMA, which is around 5205 currently. So from a technical point of view a pullback to the 5200 zone seems likely, and I think many others are looking at the same scenario. Of course if too many people see the same thing happening then odds are it won't be that simple.

I think I'm dreaming here, or just "wishful thinking" but if everyone buys that zone then we know it must go lower, so maybe it still does go down to the FP? I'm sure that's just a dream but I'm going to just let the technicals talk to me. If and when the 6hr chart gets oversold again I'll look for a strong bounce.

Then I'll look at the daily to see if it's oversold, or if it can go lower. Lastly I'll look at the weekly chart to see what it tells me. Right now it's trying to turn back up, but the moving averages have not done a bullish cross yet. That's not a "must happen" requirement as long as the monthly chart is still bullish and support the market, which it is.

But it's getting extended for sure, and I doubt if it can go more then another 4-6 months. The volume peaked on that chart in March and since then it has been declining. Back in 2021 the volume peaked in August and the market went higher into a top early January of 2022, which was was 4 months basically. If this repeats then we should top in August, September at the extreme, but could top as early as July. It's not some exact pattern that will repeat the same every time but it is a "sign" that the final high is just months away. You can't keep going higher and higher on lower volume forever.

It will end soon, and the average is about 4 months from the highest volume. Now if this month makes another higher high on the volume then that technical pattern will be reset from a March volume monthly high to a new on in May. With still half the month left it could make a higher volume bar, but right it's not happened. I don't have much else to talk about right now as until we get a turn down there's not much to say or do.

Have a blessed day.

A "pause" day yesterday as the bulls finally took a breather.  Still no damage to the bull case.  Bears MUST have a large down day to break support if there's going to be a real correction start.  Nothing really to say until this happens.  A sideways move for several days will be a bull flag, which bears don't want to see.

I don't expect much today as it's OPEX, but next week will be super important for the bears.  They need to start breaking support, and fast.  The week after will have Memorial Day on Monday the 27th, so the market will be closed.  Around that period would be when I'd expect to see the low come in for the correction.  Either before it or after it, but I lean toward after it.

Why?  Because of the common pattern for the market to have "turns" around holidays.  Many times I've seen sell offs happen into them and complete shortly after them.  There seems to be some bad news event released over those 3 days that just happen to come out, and that's is usually the "capitulation" move to finish it all.  Will it happen this time too?  I don't know but it's something to keep in mind if we do indeed get a move down started next week.

Have a great weekend.

Blow off top? We got the rip after the CPI that I was looking for, but they skipped the dip. They just gaped up and squeezed the rest of the day to put in an early all time high on the SPX cash and late one into the close on the ES futures. From a technical point of view it looks like it can go higher as the MACD on the daily chart is still pointing up strongly with no sign of turning down. But that's not something you can use to forecast a "turn" as it won't show any weakness until after the move down has already started.

This morning we have the jobs number coming out before the open, which might be used to get that turn down? If not then there's not much left as far as "events" that can stop this bull it seems.

I've not had any new FP's on the QQQ since the 4/18 low, but we finally got a one yesterday before the open.  Here's that chart...

It's never a guarantee of course but during the early part of the A wave down from the 3/31 high there were many FP's that appeared, which caused a ton of "whipsaw" action until it got later in the move.  Then the FP's stopped appearing and we just went down and bottomed at 4965, where there was still no more new FP's during the entire rally up to the current level.

What does this mean?  It's hard to say for sure but it might mean that the lack of any FP's means we will be in a steady trend move and when the FP's appear again we'll go back to the wild up and down swings as the market makes a turn to start a new trend, which would be down this time around.

However, the technicals are currently still bullishly aligned on the daily chart, and with the new all time high happening we could just continue much higher and the 2 FP's I have on the SPY might not get hit until some future time that's weeks or months away.  That's the downside to the FP's you never know when they are going to get hit.

As for today, I really don't have any clue.  I'd say simply that we will continue going up until we don't.  Every time I think we have topped it keeps going higher, so I'm just going to let the market top and turn whenever it wants to.  I can't force it, but double tops usually produce a pullback of some degree, so I'd have to think that's coming soon.

Have a blessed day.

A slow day the first half yesterday but late in the day the squeeze started. This "front running" of the CPI should cause the stops to be run overhead before any turn back down happens.

I don't know if it's going to make a higher high on the ES or lower one, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a new one on the ES and lower high on the SPX cash as there will be an hour of time between the 8:30 am EST release of the CPI number and the 9:30 am open for the cash market. I've seen this before where they do the squeeze in that hour period but by the open it's back down to around the close from the previous day.

In fact you can look at 12/13/2022 as the perfect example, as the CPI came out then and the squeeze on the bears caused a rally up to 4180, but by the open that day the SPX only hit a high of 4100, and that day put in the top for the rally. After that we saw a multi-day decline, which was a "higher low" then the 10/13/2022 low (probably 50% retrace), and that's what I believe most traders are expecting to happen again.

I would think the same thing if I didn't have the FP but since I do I must be open to a flush out drop. Back in 2022 we already had a year of a correction and was below the 200 day moving average, and we were coming up, but currently we are near all time highs and above the average.

This tells me the opposite can happen then what happen then, meaning a lower low is possible this time around. It's certainly not expected by the majority of traders as I know most people are just looking for a higher low to get long at, but isn't that just too obvious? I think it is, but until it happens I'm just guessing I guess. If for some reason the CPI doesn't cause the move then it could happen from the jobs number tomorrow before the open. They are very sneaky, so I wouldn't be shocked to see a move down at the open from the CPI that gets fully reversed into the close to shake out the early bears. Then down for real Thursday after the jobs number comes out.

Have a blessed day.