The market fell hard on Friday after topping on Wednesday with a tiny new high. I wanted a blow off but there must have been too many bulls long to make it happen? Nevertheless the turn date worked as the market topped and tanked. Support is a little lower around the 5970-5980 area on the ES, which might get hit today or tomorrow.

This Wednesday is another spot where we should see a high. I wouldn't really call it a turn date, but a bounce date would be more accurate I guess? The bottom dates are March 3rd, which should be the main "lowest low", but with another one on Friday March 7th or Monday March 10th it's possible that the later date makes a lower low.

Basically, the low on March 3rd should be followed by a 1=2 day bounce (maybe 100-200 points?) and then back down into the 7th/10th for either a higher low (a wave 2 pullback?) or a lower low (a wave 5 bottom?). From that low we should start a complex rally, but I don't expect to see some straight up, non-stop squeeze like in the past. Even if it turns out to be a wave 3 it will subdivide into 5 smaller waves and those waves will likely subdivide too. It should be a choppy mess for the next few months before we see all the various degrees of wave 1's up and wave 2's down finish, and setup a powerful, long lasting, multilayered wave 3 up. The big cycles say this will happen from a low in May and last into August where we finally see a huge blow off top. I posted on X the following..

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1892204496500965533

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1892558260890120377

It turned out that it went lower then I expected and dropped faster. The bounce into the 26th is still likely but I don't know how much? If everyone is still bullish and buying the drop the bounce might be weak, and that will keep the bulls trapped with no way to get out.

Plus it will keep bears from getting a good spot to go short at, and by the time we finally bottom next week they will have missed it all. While the fact remains that we saw a slightly higher high last Wednesday it was still likely a B wave with the A down happening from December to January. That means this current move down we are in is likely a C wave, and they don't usually bounce that much... which is why I lean toward a weak bounce into this Wednesday. Either way though more downside is likely.

I still think we will see the prior low take out, which could easily get flushed by a 100+ points, and that means we "might" even reach the 5600's? I wouldn't count on it, but the 5700's seems very likely at this point. The "when" part is either on March 3rd or the 7th/10th. For example, if we double bottom on March 3rd at the 5800 zone then I'll look for the March 7th/10th low to be a lower low that take out that double bottom and probably pierces the 200 day SMA, and of course that would be a final wave 5 down.

Or, if we take out the 5800's cleanly and drop deep into the 5700's on March 3rd I'd then think that the 1-2 day bounce will be a wave 1 of some degree and a wave 2 down for a higher low into the 7th/10th will follow.

One way or the other we should see the double bottom taken out to hit all the stops on the bulls and to reach and pierce the 200 day simple moving average. After that the bottom should be in and we will see higher highs and higher lows going forward the rest of the month.

Have a blessed day.

As I said in the prior post I'm not going to be doing as many new posts due to the lack of being setup on a new Windows 10/11 computer.  Everything is on my Windows 8.1 computer.  I'm just going to post less until I can get back into the grove of things and I've not even started to set everything up on a Windows 10 computer yet.  I have a Windows 11 computer (I hate it) but it's not setup with all my usual programs, nor has the monitors of my Windows 8.1 setup.  Anyway, here's what I see for this week...

The most likely turn date is Wednesday the 19th, but it could be off a day or so and drag out into this Thursday or Friday.  The key thing to watch is for the market to run the stops overhead by at least 50 points, if not a 100.  Then we should start back down.

But with another turn date around the 26th we might not drop very much in the beginning and could do a bounce back up into next Wednesday for a lower high, and then collapse into mid-March, like right in front of the FOMC that month, which is on the 19th.  I think we will bottom prior to then but we could bottom in the first week of March, go back down for a higher low into the second week and then after the FOMC we have a strong rally.  It's too early to know right now but that's certainly possible.  I'm just focused on catching the short that should appear this week.

Have a blessed day.

No New POSTS For Awhile!

Charles Scwab, who now runs Think Or Swim (TOS) has screwed me... they are not supporting Windows 7 and 8 now, and all my charts are on 8, which means I won't be doing any new daily posts until I can install 10 or 11 on my primary computer, and get all my settings set back up. It might take a week or more gang as I have a lot of stuff on my Windows 8.1 computer and it's not easy to move to a new one. I have a backup computer with Windows 11 on it, which I hate, but it only has 1 monitor and I use 6 monitors on this Windows 8.1 computer. This is a real nightmare.

Have a blessed day.

This week is quite bearish on the bigger cycles, which means decline should be fast and scary, but short lived. It should start Monday and can last as long as this Thursday, but might also end Wednesday after a flush out bottom it put in from a bad CPI number. Then it's back up again in a grind for a week or two before another drop late month into early March. As for the coming low, it could pierce the 5900 level to get close to the 1/13/25 low, but I think it's going to stay above it and not take it out.

That's yet to be known for sure but I do think it takes out the recent double bottoms from 1/27 and 2/3. As for the short term, I posted a chart on X Friday showing a possible path, which points to one more move up to complete a wave 5, and that might happen today, hard to say?

With CPI out this Wednesday I'm thinking we are going to go into it with a low as I already said, so the move up today to a new high might not play out. I'll just say that if we do make a higher high today it's a short with an exit either into the CPI or after it.

I also posted another chart on X of a possible Fake Print, which might be the target to get hit on any rally up today?  Here's that chart...

If it is hit though it's only a lower high, but that might be all we get?  It will still be a short in my opinion.  But it will be a weaker short as without those stops take out above the all time high there's going to be too many bears below, which will limit any decline.  I'd then lean toward the 2/2 low of 5936 ES "not" getting taken out and a higher low happening into the CPI (most likely), and a surprise "good number" sparks a rally back up again.  More up's and down's that go nowhere to frustrate bulls and bears alike, as both are looking for a trend move, but that might be months away?

Have a blessed day.

Today is the big day for the bulls as they have the best chance for a blow off top happening. Any new all time all over by at least 30 points I'd think will be enough to clear out the bears that shorted yesterday.

If I see this happens I'm a big bear next week and would not be surprised to see some bad news come out over the weekend to cause a gap down Monday, which will look like a repeat of the recent big drop down days, and it should only last about 2-3 days, like into the 12th (maybe the 13th?) before it bottom and turns back up to do another squeeze for a week or two.

This is a swing traders dream to be able to get so many big up's and down's happen. And it's likely to continue until August with the market not really going anywhere. It reminds me of 2015 where the market had months of going up and down in a range until it finally crashed in August. I don't think we will repeat the crash again, like back then, but we could do it in October maybe? Anyway, I'll keep this update short. If we get a new high today I'm looking to short it into next week.

Have a great weekend.

We finally got the breakout late in the afterhour yesterday from the chop range we have been in for several days. As I said yesterday we have several news events coming up and any of them can give us the blow off top.

This morning we have the Jobless Claims, which could cause it? I do think we get a move up from it, but I don't know if it has enough to break through overhead resistance from the multiple tops we have. Plus there's a FP on the SPY afterhours yesterday pointing down to the chop zone, which is at 602.00, but that could also be a late fill and not a real fake print target.

However, the technicals will get overbought on the 2hr chart if we gap up and hit a quadruple top around the 6100-6120 zone. The 6hr chart isn't overbought though and it could push up more and allow the market to breakout. It's a flip of coin here as I don't know if it has enough strength to do it or not? I guess if the jobs number is super great then anything is possible. If we get past 6144 on the ES we could see a squeeze happen and we should run up to a new all time high to my target of 6235-6245.

But that's a big "if" as I just don't see it in the technicals or prior patterns. There is the 6163, 6162 and 6144 prior highs that will all be taken out in one big squeeze once the lowest one gives way. Prior patterns doesn't suggest it will happen today from the Jobs Number but if it does that's great as I'll be ready to short it. Odds though lean toward a gap up today to 6100-6120 and then a pullback to retest the breakout zone from the chop of the last several days.

And we have the possible FP on the SPY that would be the target. If that all happens today then possibly tomorrow with the Employment Situation we can get the squeeze for the blow off top? If that doesn't happen then it should be next Wednesday with the CPI number, and we've had CPI numbers in past put in big turns so that's a real possibility that it could happen again. If I remember correctly the 3502 bottom on 10/13/22 was a CPI day, and so was the 4180 top on 12/13/22, so that's the key date for the blow off top if today or tomorrow doesn't produce it.

For the short term though my lean is a gap up into the 6100-6120 zone and then a pullback to the 602 SPY FP, and more chop with an upward bias into the CPI next week with some decent odds that the blow off happens tomorrow instead, but I'd want to see a nice recover into the close today of any pullback so they can do another gap up tomorrow.

The "Wildcard" is if we gap up and keep going and that's certainly possible as I said.  It's not my lean but there is a prior pattern that "if" it follows it we will indeed just keep going up and make a new all time high in a few days, like possibly by tomorrow or Monday?

As you can see in the chart above yesterday looks a lot like 12/22/22, and it was followed by 2 strong days up with today being like 12/23/22, which then topped out the next trading day on the 27th, and that was of course the Santa rally but the pattern looks very similar to now.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday was kind of a "pause day" as the market ran into overhead resistance and couldn't get through it. It pulled back some afterhours to reset some short term overbought charts, but the 2hr and 6hr still have room to run higher. The 2hr is probably going to get overbought on the next push higher, which I think will reach the 6100-6120 zone on the ES, and that's where we could see a pullback of say 100 points possibly?

It should NOT be the final high though as I still think we bust through the current triple top and hit the stops on the bears over it. Best guess is 80-100 points over the current all time high, and that might happen as early as this Friday but it could also drag out into early next week.

The market loves to trick the most traders so if we see a run to to the 6100-6120 today or tomorrow then I think we will see a pullback (maybe 100 points) into Friday to keep all the bears short. Then some positive news will come out over the weekend to gap it up Monday and squeeze those shorts up to the new all time high. This Thursday we have Jobless Claims, which could be blamed for the pullback into Friday, or (if we don't rally today to 6100-6120) could be used to get the market up to the quadruple top zone of 6100-6120.

Friday has the Employment Situation, which maybe it is used for the pullback? These events will be used some how to produce the turns in both directions, but I don't know which one does what. I'm just patiently waiting for the 6100-6120 rally to exit longs and re-enter on the pullback, but I will NOT short yet. The final target is roughly 6240-6250 on the ES, and only then will I become a bear.

Have a blessed day.

We held the double bottom to make the second right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern yesterday and rallied nicely. The RSI and MACD on the 6hr chart have plenty of room to go higher, but I'm sure the market will have some trouble breaking out when it reaches a quadruple top, so a pullback of some degree is likely this week.

The new all time could happen anytime after that pullback, and that might be this Thursday or Friday... possibly even next Monday or Tuesday. But cycles point to this week being the last week of strength for the bulls as the bears should be taking over soon, and will control the rest of February.

For the short term, I'm looking for move up to around 6135-6145 to squeeze out the trapped bears. Once done I'd expect to see a pullback for a day at most, and probably not more then half the entire move up... which would be back down to the 6050 zone where the gap down was at. That move should trap the bears and provide the fuel to make a new all time by early next week.

Have a blessed day.

On Friday we finally reached a triple top, but short term charts looked too overbought to me to support a blow off gap up Monday and I posted a chart on X midday suggesting we will not do the breakout and instead go sideways in a range for about a week before we finally breakout though resistance and run the stops overhead. Shortly after I posted the chart (below) President Trump announced that he was going to doing tariffs and the market sold off fast to erase that entire rally and close down for the day.

For me, it was there in the charts that we were too overbought to hold up there and a pullback is needed to reset them. But I didn't expect it to be news driven and to happen so fast.

As I write this post over the weekend there's nothing new from him but I do believe that when we see the charts get nice and oversold we will also see him come out and announce some deal with the countries he was going to tariff and that will cause a big squeeze. When will that happen you ask? I don't know but I'll be looking closely at the 2hr RSI and the 6hr too. Below is the 2hr chart...

As you can see it's more about "time" then "price" as if the market can go down early Monday and find a support level to hold at then it can just chop around down there until the RSI gets oversold enough to bottom.

Then some deal announced during market hours or even after the close will be the spark to get the squeeze back up going, and I would expect to see it breakout this time around, and if it goes all the way up to my target (about 6218 SPX) into Wednesday or Thursday then it's all done for the rally. But if there's no news about a deal on the tariffs I'd go back to the market chopping in a range all week and breaking out next week to hit the target (like next Monday or Tuesday).

Considering that the "turn window" for the bulls to end their rally, and to let the bears take over, is this week I lean toward some deal happening to give the bulls the trigger needed to blast off faster and finish it all this week. That's just my lean of course.

Above is a chart of the QQQ that I posted on X Friday as well. It shows the FP's and my thoughts on the most bearish case for it playing out. It doesn't have to go that deep but it would be a great long setup if it did. The deeper it pulls back I think the easier it will be to reach the new all time high, so I would love to see a move down to around the 1/27 low, but a slightly higher low, which on the ES would be around 5980-5990 I'd estimate. Below is the 6hr chart...

You can see the obvious Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that has already been formed but to have a second right shoulder would be the ideal spot to go long I think. It would likely take all day Monday for the RSI to get oversold on the 6hr chart but I'd love to see it happen.

Have a blessed day.

A lot of a chop yesterday as the market tried to shake out bulls and bears both before a breakout happened. This pattern reminds me a lot of the 3/21/2022 period into the 3/29 high, whereas the market did a little dance around 3/22 to 3/24 back then, which was just under the recent double top highs from 2/2 and 2/9 in 2022. The market is repeating that pattern to some degree it seems as it stays under the 12/16/24 and 1/24/25 double top highs.

It should get up closer to those prior tops today, similar to either 3/25/22 or 3/28/22 back then. If we rally up today and make a triple top then we should be similar to 3/28/22, and that means Monday we should see a breakout new high happen like 3/29/22 did back then. I'm still looking for about a 100 points higher then the double top highs so that it can take out all the stops on the bears.

It might drag out into Tuesday if today doesn't get up close to the double top as then it would be more like the 3/25/22 high, which was a Friday back then just like today. But we are so close now that I do lean toward a triple top today. Regardless, we are very close now to an important top before we rollover for a nice correction in February.

Have a great weekend.

We got the pullback yesterday for the wave 2, and while it didn't go as deep as I would have liked it was enough to make me very bullish going into the next few days. I don't know when we will top but between this Friday the 31st and next Wednesday the 5th is the likely period. I think we can see 100+ points over the current all time highs as it will take out every last bear out there before we rollover for a good pullback in most all of the month of February.

We could top tomorrow if they really get the squeeze going, who knows? The technicals are lined up really nicely for a strong rally to start today was we should be in a wave 3 up and we have that nice Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern too. Plus the MACD's and RSI on the 2hr, 6hr and Daily support more upside before the market exhausts itself.

We also have a triangle pattern now, which is called a bull pennant flag, and it too suggests we go up at least a 100 points over the current high, probably more. But after this last squeeze I'm big bear again.

Have a blessed day.

Big day today as the FED is likely going to cause a lot of wild moves. From a technical point of view the short term charts are getting close to overbought and they are up against resistance from the gap window. I can also count 5 waves up from the low, which I think is a bigger wave 1 up, so a wave 2 down is likely coming today after the FOMC.

Again, I don't think we are going to repeat the 12/18 move where we drop hard that day, bounced like yesterday and made a lower low... which would be compared to today. I think we make a higher low, like maybe the 6000 level or so? It should be a wave 2 and might play out in an ABC move were we get an early pullback today (for the A wave), before the meeting, and the a B up into the meeting at 2pm EST. It will setup the market perfectly for a nasty drop into the close afterwards... BUT, it should NOT take out the Monday low.

It should make a higher low that sucks the bears into thinking we are going to tank hard the rest of the week. That's the trap in my opinion as the daily chart is still bullish on the MACD and the RSI, and so is the 6hr chart. That implies we will turn back up on Thursday to start a wave 3 that should be very powerful as it will have many bears trapped.

This pattern will be a "inverted head and shoulders" with 2 left shoulders and 2 right shoulders. The move up should easily make a new all time high and my thoughts of a 100+ over the current high will be an easy achievement for this pattern. There's earnings out after the close today for some big name companies, which I'm sure could be used as an excuse to start the wave 3 up. It's all in the charts now, so all we need to see is one more pullback today into the close. Then a gap up and go tomorrow keeps the bears trapped that hold short after the close.

Have a blessed day.

We got a strong bounce up from the low yesterday, but is the low in? That's a question I can't answer but I really don't think we are going to break the low until we first go up a lot higher first and then rollover again. I just don't think they will repeat the 12/18 low, which bounced and then did make a lower low... then a strong rally followed. I tend to think they will NOT repeat that move as it's too obvious.

Resistance overhead is the "gap window" and of course "gap fill", and I think we reach gap window at the very least. Then we'll see what happens as we should have some kind of pullback there, but I don't know how much. They took out a lot of bulls yesterday that will sell around gap fill as that's where they got stuck at from Fridays close.

Bears though are trapped now so I don't think we will go back down to the low to let them out. I'm thinking we get to gap fill before the FOMC tomorrow (which could be into the close today?) and then we get a pullback of some degree, but there's still a new high very possibly, and it should be 100+ points over the current high to hit the stops.

The SPX cash already has a new high, but not the ES, so I do think we will see one by the end of this week or early next week. Probably by the end of this week as it closes out the month too, and "turns" usually come around the end of any month and/or beginning of the new month. If we can get that last higher high out of the way we can see an ugly February, which could shave off 10+ percent, and maybe 20% by April/May?

I will add though that time is running out for the bulls and they really need to get through the all time high by the end of this week as if they don't get through it, and just make a double top into Friday, then that might be all we get as starting in February the bears will take over.

As for now (Tuesday) I think we go up as that's what I see in the short term technicals.  If we reach gap window, or gap fill, bulls should try to go sideways into the FOMC to get a bull flag formed and keep bears trapped.  Then use the FOMC to break through and blast off to new highs into the end of the week.

Have a blessed day.

Sunday night in the futures shortly after they opened the market tanked.  The 6100 zone didn't hold so next will be the 6065 level, and if we get that deep I'd look for a strong rally up either before the FOMC this Wednesday, or possibly after it.  It depends on how long it takes to bottom out and turn back up.

If we get it done today then we can rally up tomorrow and go into the meeting at some midpoint zone, which is likely a B wave bounce with the decline being the A wave.  We'd then see a quick C wave down to a pierce of 6000 to complete the ABC move.  From there I'd look for one more strong rally up to a new all time high into early next week as if we get down below 6000 Wednesday the short term charts will be oversold enough to launch a squeeze back up.

As for the meeting, it should only spark the last drop to lure in some more bears to squeeze and shake out any bulls that buy the lows today.

Basically if we reverse back up today into Tuesday or Wednesday for a lower high then we did an A wave down into today's low, a B wave up up into the FOMC, and a C wave down afterwards.  Then one last rally into the first week of February to end it before a bigger down move starts and last probably into April or May.

The alternative would be that the "so called" B wave doesn't happen and instead the entire pullback ends today, which is an ABC on a smaller degree, with the C down being the Sunday night gap open.  That would then say that the first move up, which will hit strong resistance now at the "gap window" (6105) and of course "gap fill", will just be the wave 1 up before the FOMC.  Then a small pullback Tuesday for a wave 2 and the wave 3 up happens after the FOMC

When I look at the 2hr and 6hr charts they are telling me that the down move could be finished today and it's up to a new all time high after the FOMC Wednesday to complete a final 5 wave push.

If I'm wrong on that then we'll see another lower low first, like below 6000, which would be the C wave of course, and then we rally up in 5 final waves toward 6200+, but I have to think that this time will be different then the 12/18 drop, that bounce small the next day and put in a lower low afterwards.  I think they are going to switch it up this time around and make a higher low on an pullback Tuesday or Wednesday, which would be my wave 2 path with wave 3 after the FOMC.

Have a blessed day.

We chopped around all day yesterday and then ran some stops into the close, which was foretold by a FP on the QQQ of 531.91 in the premarket, so it had to be hit before we can start the pullback, which is still coming but most likely we will see it next Monday or Tuesday now. At this point my best guess is that it will be about 60 points down, which is roughly back to the 12/26 prior high zone.

Again, it might reach the 1/6 level but that's probably too far I think. As for today I don't really have much to add. It will probably chop around again to close the week out strong, that's unless they pull a fast one and drop it now instead of Mon/Tues, which is possible I guess, but I don't lean toward it. Of course that's just when it happens as not many will be expecting it... LOL.

Also, there's a new FP after the close Thursday on the SPY this time, and it's a downside one. It's 606.51, which could happen today early on and then back up for a lower high into the close... which would be an A down and B up to setup Monday for the C down in the expected 60+ point pullback. My target for that move would be the prior highs from 12/26, and I would expect to see it on Monday most likely.

Have a great weekend.

We hit the double top yesterday and all that is left is one small pullback today before we go into a sideways choppy basing mode until the FOMC next Wednesday. From there I expect to see a big breakout to run up a 100 or more points over the current all time high. As for the pullback I don't think we are going to see much more then a retest of the 12/26 prior high... maybe down to the 1/6 prior high, but I'm not holding my breath on it. If we see it I think it will be a fast move and not last long. Basically I'm looking for a similar move between now and the FOMC as we had back from 11/11/24 to 11/14, but I don't think we drop hard after the move like back then but instead we flip that 11/14 to 11/15 into an up move into the end of this month, starting after the FOMC.

Have a blessed day.

We got the move up yesterday that I was looking for and today should end it with a stop run above the 12/26 prior high, which was 6107 on the ES, and then I think we pullback 50-70 points. That could all happen today, not sure? But don't get all "bear-ed up" looking for the next big drop to start as there's still too much "time" left on the clock in favor of the bulls.

This pullback will just be a one day wonder event and after that we should bounce back up and stay in a range until we go into the FOMC next week, where a breakout to new all time highs is likely. It should run the stops on the bears by 70-100 points or so over the current all time high, and that should last right into the end of the month. Not much else to add as that's what I see and so far it's going well.

Have a blessed day.

The move up Friday happened as I had hoped it would and it stopped right around the 1/6 prior high, but I don't think it's finished yet as I think it's going to challenge the 12/26 prior higher today or tomorrow before we see a small pullback, which will probably be back down to the 1/6 prior high... meaning I'm not expecting a lot.

Remember that the cycles in the market don't show any real bearishness until February, so any pullback this week will likely be bought and the market will either stay in a choppy range until the end of the month or breakout to a new high. Now... will that be the big squeeze for the blow off or just a slightly higher high to hit some stops overhead is unknown, but "time" in really important and when it's ran out it's over for the bulls.

So, if they don't get that big breakout rally started this week (and I personally don't think they will as the short term technicals don't support it) then any new high next week shouldn't be "the big squeeze" as there won't be enough "time" left for it to reach 6500+ as we'll enter February the week afterwards when the bearish period starts. There's an FOMC meeting next week on Wednesday the 29th, which will likely be the "spark" to get any strong move up started.

But if it happens I just don't see a crazy blow off top happening but instead just think we'll see a slightly higher high the hits the stops on the bears and lures in some bulls right when we enter bearish February. As for today and/or tomorrow I see a little more on the upside toward the 12/26 prior high, then a pullback later in the week (small) and chop into the FOMC next week.

Have a blessed day.

A nothing day yesterday as the market chopped around, which is a bull flag basically. I'm looking for a breakout today and a run up to the 1/6 prior high area, which is where we should see the top for this first (5 wave) move up. I'm not sure about how much we pullback next week but it should NOT be the start of a next big move down.

Maybe it's 100 points, but again, it's not expected to be a huge drop... not yet. "Time" must pass first, meaning the market needs to burn through the rest of this month before it can rollover hard, and while it's certainly possible that it chops sideways for 2-3 weeks in a tight range I give that lower odds.

The daily MACD and RSI are turning up and should help the market make that blow off top a reality. At least that's the favored odds, but of course just because odds are leaning toward it happening doesn't mean it has too. Odds of it falling off a cliff prior to February though are super low, which only leave two choices... blow off top or choppy sideways crap that goes nowhere. Back to the short term, today we should see a wave 5 up from the 1/13 low to complete that pattern.

Yesterdays move was the wave 4 and this wave 5 is all that is left, and technicals suggest it happens today. I guess it could drag into next week but not likely as the inauguration is Monday and I don't see much happening until later next week as traders try to figure out what's next after it's over with.

Also, the market will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day, and it just happens to be inauguration day too. So everything suggests we'll complete the 5th wave today for what is likely a bigger wave 1, and that leaves wave 2 to chop around most of next week. Then, "if" I'm right about the blow off top, we see the wave 3, 4, and 5 take the market up to 6500+ into the first week of February to end the bull market.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterdays CPI sparked off the short squeeze as the bears didn't get that last flush out move lower first. I do think it continues, even "if" we get a pullback from the jobs numbers this morning, which we may or may not get?

This rally is strong and can continue up today and tomorrow until it hits a brick wall at one of the resistance zones overhead. It's more of a "feel" on which one will stop the bulls, as the 1/7 high of 6068 on the ES is the first magnet but then we have the 6105 high from 12/25 and finally the current all time high. The rate at which the market is moving suggests the first resistance won't hold and that the bulls will push through it, meaning the 6105-6163 zone is where the most resistance will be and we could see it reached by the 20th.

Here's a chart I posted on X (Twitter) yesterday...

If so, everyone is going to short it as it's a double top area, and unfortunately it's just too early for that to "mark" the final top and the start of the next big move down... which isn't expected to start until early February. That means there's a lot of time left between the 20th and around 3rd/4th of next month.

This tells me that any pullback after the coming double top zone should NOT be the start of the big move down, as it should be reversed back up into the first week of February... and it's going to get tricky after the double top as I need to see how far it pulls back to try and figure out how high the rally will be into the 3rd/4th.

I'm going to remain open for the blow off top to 6500+ to play out as with that much time left it's possible that it could happen. Of course if the pullback after the 20th is deep enough then maybe the move back up will just make a triple top? It's really hard to know for sure... especially this early on in the move. First we need to see the rally reach the double top zone into the end of this week (roughly), and then we need to see the pullback.

That's the big picture, and as for the short term I'm still looking higher today and tomorrow, even if we get a quick drop after the Jobs Number.

Have a blessed day.