Last Friday's update played out fairly well as the market did rally early in the day to hit the top of the falling channel, and actually pierce through it. However, it failed to hold into the close and rolled over instead and erased that entire move up from the open. I had thought it would hold into Sunday futures and that's where we'd see that drop, but the market was weaker then expected and dropped early.

This makes me think it's diverging from the prior pattern back on 10/4-10/6 that I compared the current period when I cover it in Fridays post. To me, this weakness suggests that the up move expected from today isn't going to be strong enough to make a new high with my FET of 6009 being ideal price target. Instead I think we are going to remain in a choppy period from now until the election and neither make a new higher high or go much below 5800 (possibly 5750?), which really makes the most sense with traders being uncertain about who's going to win. While I would love to see another higher high to short I just think that's less likely now. Below is last Fridays Daily Chart Wave Count...

If the market does not make a higher high in the coming week or so then the wave count will updated to mark the ending point for Tiny Wave 5, inside Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave 3 at the 5927.25 high on 10/17 and the pullback I have shown on that chart as Tiny Wave 4 will actually be Small Wave A down inside Medium Wave 4. That means that all the chop we get from that low will be part of Small Wave B up. This assumes Small Wave A already ended a the 5801 low last week, but it could be retested and a slightly lower low first.

If that happens then the move up from there, which I don't see as much lower (maybe 5750?), will start Small Wave B, but I lean toward the market already being in Small Wave B now and that it will end as we go into the election. It sets up days following to have a large and fast drop for Small Wave C inside Medium Wave 4, and I still lean toward it reaching my Fake Print of 533.01 on the SPY, which is roughly 5388 on the ES. That's basically a double bottom with the 9/6 low of 5394, and that will be big support for a strong move back up. Below is that undated wave count...

Keep in mind that wave counts are not really that important and need to be adjusted all the time. Whether we make a slightly higher high like the wave count on Fridays update, or a lower high, like the wave count above, doesn't matter.  The technicals on all the different time frames are more important, as well as turn dates and Fibonacci's... and let's not forgot how accurate the FP's have been over the past 14 years since I first discovered them. I just never know the "when" part on them, but they always hit at some point and with technicals current suggesting we are in a pullback period for awhile, and the "shock factor" with the election, I have to think that mid-late November we'll see the 533.01 FP hit.

If this happens we should rally hard afterwards and it should last into early December where a new all time high is hit. We should reach either my Fibonacci Extension Target of 6082 or 6189 at that time, and every bear will become bullish thinking the low is in and it's off to the races for 7000, 8000, whatever.

Let's face it, for years December is rarely super bearish and there's always a late month Santa Rally on top of that. But I think this December is going to shock everyone with surprise bigger drop to hit my FP's on the SPY of 483.07 and 483.62, which I rarely get two fake prints around the level, but I did this year. It's double conformation to me that we will that zone this year before it's over, and doing it in December will take everyone by surprise. Isn't that what the market always does anyway?

I mean, if it was easy to figure out everyone would rich from trading it, but not how it works. December of 2018 is a perfect example of traders being caught off guard. I think that's coming again, the rally up after it will make many more all time highs. I think 2025 could setup just like 1987 did... a blow off top before a crash!

Have a blessed day.

The market held up as expected yesterday, but today and into Monday could go either way. Monday is a turn date, so if we go into it with a high then it should be a top, and if we go into it with a low it should be a bottom. I think it will be a low but I'm not sure if it's going to take out the Wednesday low or not? It might be a higher low, or just slightly lower (meaning not anywhere near 5700). I say that because the short term charts are bottoming on their RSI and MACD and look like they are just a few days away from a strong turn back up. Let's start by looking at the 1hr chart below.

As you can see it made a higher low on its' RSI and MACD from Wednesday to Thursday, so it's trying to hold the low and push up. For today I'd like to see it get overbought on the MACD (and RSI too, but less likely), which would be similar to the 10/4 to 10/6 period. In fact, I kind of think the market is going to follow that pattern. Next let's look at the 2hr chart below...

On it you can see the RSI and MACD have bottomed and are grinding higher up from that Wednesday low. This upward pressure should continue but it doesn't have the strength to last too long as the 4hr (and 6hr) haven't turned back up yet. Let's look at that chart next...

Now you can see what I'm talking about the MACD is still pointing down ot the 4hr chart and while the RSI has made a bottom, and came off of it, I think it needs to make a higher low on it before a strong turn up can follow. But it's getting very close now to a turn back up that will last awhile, and with Monday being a turn date I have to think that's when it will happen. And now let's look at the 6hr chart...

It never quite got fully oversold like I had hoped it would, which a move to 5700 would have done it, but I don't think that's as likely now. We'll know on Monday what the low will be but I suspect it won't break below Wednesday low of 5801 as the technicals look very similar to the 9/26 to 10/7 period, and I further think that we are not in Small Wave 4 down now.

I think it's only Tiny Wave 4 and that we'll go up after Monday to make another higher high (but not 6100+ yet... that's later in December), which should top around the election. That's where Tiny Wave 5 should end and complete Small Wave 5 inside Medium Wave 3, and then we can have a good pullback for Medium Wave 4, which will likely be an ABC and last into mid-late November. Possibly around the 22nd or so? Let's look at Wave Count below on the Daily Chart...

There is a Fibonacci Extension Target of 6009.50 that I think will mark the high into the election.  While you can't see it on the Daily Chart you can see it on all the other time frames, so just look at other charts to know what I'm referring to.

Think about how hitting that target and dropping for Medium Wave 4 would fool everyone into thinking the market has topped and it going to start a recession now.  But it won't be finished yet on thee upside and from whatever low we get there we'll have one more rally to the FET of 6082.46 or 6189.54 into early December.  That move will squeeze out all the bears and get everyone thinking the low is in now and it's off to 7000 or more... but that's shouldn't happen.

If I'm right that last move up will top out Medium Wave 5, inside Large Wave 5, inside Extra Large Wave 3, and a surprise drop in December will shock the market for Extra Large Wave 4, which can easily be a 20% drop, and that should reach my FP on the SPY of 483... and that might be right into Christmas again like 2018, who knows?

If this plays out then Extra Large Wave 5 up will take the market to crazy new highs into the 3rd quarter of 2025 before topping out... and then a crash can follow, as well as a recession.

Lastly, as for the low of Medium Wave 4, I have a FP of 533.01 on the SPY that "might" be the target?  If so, it's a massive "buy" for the last move up to either my FET at 6082.46 or the one at 6189.54, and that should be right into the first week of December.  With all the war stuff going on in the world right now I would not be surprised to see another False Flag happen on December 7th (Pearl Harbor) to blame the expected drop for Large Wave 4 down.

Have a Great Weekend.

We got the breakdown I was looking for, which is getting close to oversold on the short term (6hr chart) and did get oversold on the 1hr and 2hr charts. With the election just a few weeks away I do think we will remain in a rangebound area as the uncertainty of it should keep both a big breakdown or breakout from happening as traders wait for the results. For the short term, a possible wave count could be the following...

Because the 6hr chart is close, but not yet fully oversold, I have to think the downside from yesterdays low is not too much further. Most likely the drop was a wave 3 inside a C wave and the bounce into the close was a wave 4, which leaves a 5 wave down still left, which should get the RSI oversold enough to complete the 5 waves down for the C, which is inside a bigger A wave.

Then we should rally on Friday (even start late today if we drop early?) that might carry into Monday of next week (not sure there on the day?). Once that bigger B wave is over with a C wave down should follow to (most likely) take out the stops below the 10/3 and 10/7 lows (around 5730), meaning we could hit and pierce the 5700 level?

Another possible wave count is below, which has the same results of hitting the 5700 zone by next Monday to end this pullback.

At that point I have to think the pullback is over with and that we'll start the last move up to 6100+ into mid-late November.

That Medium 5th Wave will have subdivide into the 5 Small Waves, and those will subdivide into Tiny Waves of course. I lean toward the top into the end of November, into Thanksgiving when volume will be really light. That will setup Medium Wave 4 down in December, which I think will hit my fake print on the SPY of 483. but we'll have to cross that road when it gets there.

Have a blessed day.

Chop, Chop until we Drop! That's the mood the market seems to be in right now. It's frustrating both bulls and bears equally I think, but a move is coming and it should be to the downside. I don't think this market is ready yet for the last squeeze up to 6100+ until after the election, and if it gets delayed for weeks as the demoncrats try to fake enough votes then we might not get any real winners until late November.

I see it in the charts that the high should happen into Thanksgiving, which is at the end of next month. Between now and then I think we will see some wild swings but not really go anywhere. I don't see much lower the "maybe" 5700 and I don't see much high then "maybe" 6000, and I still think we see the downside target this month. I posted yesterday on Twitter a chart that I do think is possible. Here's that chart...

As you can see it suggests a move down early today and back up late today, and then a breakdown tomorrow after the Jobs Numbers. Maybe it plays out like that or drags out a little longer but technicals still suggest we will have a pullback before a strong rally to the upside target of 6100+. Nothing more to add.

Have a blessed day.

A very stubborn market it seems as it continues to stay in a tight range, but a breakdown is very near and could last into the 28th-31st window where "turns" are most common. I posted the follow chart yesterday on Twitter, which "might" be the path?

But there's also a chance we could make one more high to hit some stops overhead first, and then start a nice pullback to the falling white trendline of support. The very short term chart do support an up move but the 6hr and daily do not, so it's anyone's guess here on whether we do that first or just go down from here. Either way though a pullback is coming before the big squeeze to 6100+ into some date in November.

Have a blessed day.

Friday held up as expected and closed green on the day. Nothing has changed with my thoughts from the posts last week. I still expect a pullback this week with the target areas around 5700 or so on the ES, and then we rally up into the election, and probably past it as I don't think we are going to repeat election night in 2016.

This time will be different. We know that the results of it could be drug out for many days afterwards as the deep state have to figure out a way to create enough votes to cheat and put Kammie in as the next puppet. I don't think it's going to happen though as I think God will intervene and Trump will win, but "when" they actually announce it and said it's final is unknown? Maybe it's just a few days after the election or maybe it's a week or so afterwards?

Regardless, the upside target is still the same to me, which is the preferred FET of 6082.46 on the ES, but it could reach the 6189.54 target if it's a really big squeeze. I think that's less likely as I don't think there is enough time left to get it up there before the election, or even after it with some last gasp squeeze from a Trump win. That's only a 100 point difference so we can just call it "that zone" is where the market should top out at.

However, I don't think we are going to just fall off a cliff the day after the results, but instead we will likely have some wild swings up and down for a few weeks as bulls see a Trump wins as a reason to buy the pullbacks while the bears short them looking for the correction to start because the election is over with.

That fighting could last for a few weeks and look similar to the up's and down in September and October of 2018 before the plunge into a Christmas low. I suspect we are going to get some kind of repeat of that, but exact of course. The downside target I still think we reach is the 483 fake print on the SPY and from 6100 on the ES that's only about a 20% correction, which the 2018 one was just under 22%, so they could be close in that area.

My point here is to "expect the un-expected" and a surprise drop in December will fool the masses... especially if we repeat the first drop back then, which was 12% that was followed by a strong rally with everyone thinking the low was in. But it wasn't and we could see that same thing happen this time around too.

Possible Scenario...

And if nothing much happens after the election we could see the market put in the high going into the end of November, which would fool everyone thinking whatever wild swings we had after the election was all there was, and that it's off to the races again in the bull market.  But instead we get a surprise large drop in December like 2018 to catch everyone on the wrong side.  I think this is very possible, so keep an open mind here as the coming drop won't be easy to trade.

Have a blessed day.

We went a little higher then I expected, which put in a slightly higher high. Nothing much has changed really as I'm still expecting a pullback into next week. That higher high yesterday was likely some final 5th wave up, instead of it ending on Monday like I previously thought it did. Basically, it looks like the chart I did on October 13th, which I'll post again below...

At that time I was looking for Tiny Wave 3 to have already topped that Sunday night at 5868.25, which I thought was the end of Extra Tiny Wave 5 (not labeled on the chart above but you can see 5 waves), but it went higher on Monday the 14th to reach 5918.50.  It was obviously still not done previously, but it completed at that point. Then the drop on Tuesday was Tiny Wave 4 (as all the Extra Tiny Waves completed Tiny Wave 3), and the rally up from there was Tiny Wave 5, which peaked at the current 5927.25 high.

If this holds we completed Small Wave 5 up at that high and also Medium Wave 3 up. This puts us in Medium Wave 4 down right now in play, which should unfold in an ABC to make up all 3 of the Small Waves. Small Wave C should have 5 Tiny Waves inside it, and should complete by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week (best estimate). Below is that chart...

As you can see I've drawn some new Fibonacci Levels on it, which if we pullback to the 38.2% level from one of them, then that's somewhere between 5618.88 and 5723.55, depending on the starting point you do the measuring from.  I don't think we will follow the Fibonacci Chart that starts at the 5120 low but I added it anyway.

That was the rally up from the 5120 low of Large Wave 4 to the high for Medium Wave 1 (5669.75), which was followed by a pullback of around 50% to the 5394 low for Medium Wave 2 down. That calculation was done using just the full length up of Medium Wave 1, but I've drawn both a calculation of just the length of Medium Wave 3 up and both Medium Wave 1 and 3 in total. I think the proper way to calculate is just using Medium Wave 3 only to see what Medium Wave 4 could be, just like using just Medium Wave 1 to calculate Medium Wave 2 down.

On it we have the 38.2% pullback level at 5723.55 and 50% at 5660.63, so I think that zone is our target area for the bottom of Medium Wave 4 down. Obviously, if they take out 5723.55 they are taking out the multi-bottom support and they might not want to do that... I don't know? But if they do it will be fast and ONLY done to hit the stops that the bulls have placed below that area. Then the 50% retrace level could be hit before we start back up for Medium Wave 5 into the election.

As for today I would like to see the 5850 low from Tuesday get taken out into the close so that we can open Monday down in the 5810-5830 area where there's support from 9/25-10/6, but that might be just wishful thinking as most Fridays are bullish.  However, if that zone is hit we should bounce there as it's probably going to complete Small Wave A down, so maybe we see it reverse back up at the open Monday for Small Wave B?

Then (hopefully) it rolls back over near the close that day to start the final 5 waves down for Small Wave C, and that could last into Wednesday I'd say, maybe even Thursday?  It really depends on how fast all this plays out as we could see another "one day wonder" where we drop a 100+ points to scare the crap out of everyone, and then that's all there is... it's finished!

That's really the smartest move by the bulls as it would lure in a ton of bears, which will be fuel to squeeze up to 6100 or so into the election.  I'm just going to try my best to find the 5 waves inside the C wave down so I'll know where to get long at for the rally afterwards.

Have a great weekend

We got the bounce I was expecting yesterday and it never took out the 5900 level. I think it will continue to hold and that we are in the early part of the pullback to 5600-5700 on the ES, which could be over quickly (by Mon/Tues) or drag out slowly into the end of this month.

I lean toward it happening quickly as it's not very far down and there's not a lot of time left for the rally back up to 6100 (roughly)... that's "if" it's going to top out into the election? The election could drag out as the Deep State try to delay it until they can create enough votes (out of thin air) to steal the election. But I don't think they will be able to as I think God will stop them and put Trump in for another 4 years.

Call it divine intervention basically, but I just don't see satan winning this battle. Meaning we could chop around up at the top area for a week or so after the election. It's setting up the rest of November and part of December to drop hard to hit my FP on the SPY of 483, which could be right into Christmas like 2018 did? This is what I see as possible based on the time remaining and the technicals.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, we finally got some supports break and it's looking like we have topped short term and we are starting the pullback for wave 4, which on my Main Wave Count is Small Wave 4 and on my Alternative Wave Count it's Tiny Wave 4.

In both cases the pullback should be to around the falling white trendline, and that's roughly the 5600 level on the ES. Maybe we stop shy and only reach the 5700 level where all the lows are at from the 10/2-10/7 period but usually they will hit the stops on the bulls first to shake them out and lure in bears looking for a deeper drop. From there (below 5700 down to 5600) they can bottom and then rally hard to over 6000, and that could very well be right into the election.

I think it will reach either the FET at 6082 or the FET at 6189, and that will complete a 5th wave up, which on both wave counts it will mark an important top that should be followed by a drop to my FP on the SPY of 483 in November/December. After that is where the wave counts diverge with the Main Wave Count marking the high as "the top" and a bear market to follow and the Alternative Wave Count having one more higher high first, like to my FET of 6435... then a bear market.

We'll cross that road when we get there. For the short term I'm looking for any bounces today to just be shorting spots as we drop into the 5600's for wave 4, which should unfold in an ABC pattern, and then a squeeze to new highs into the election with 6082 as the most likely target.

Have a blessed day.

This market is just not looking like it's going to give the bears any chance at getting out with a small pullback. It's possible that the wave 4 down that I keep thinking is coming has already played out over the last couple of weeks as a sideways wave. If so, we are in the final 5th wave up now and any pullbacks from here will be small, like maybe 30-50 points? Below is the 2 hour chart with those adjusted waves on them.

With this main wave count we are in the final 5th wave up, which suggest it will top a little above 6000, like at my FET of 6082.46, but it just doesn't feel right. I think there's too much time left in the month and that we will go higher. Below is an alternative wave count that explains it better.

In this alternative wave count we could "pause" around the FET of 6009.50 with a brief pullback for Small Wave 4 as Small Wave 3 up is still in play (which I had it completed on the main wave count). That pullback should be quick and afterwards we'll get one last squeeze for Small Wave 5 up, which possibly hits my crazy FET of 6435?

That FET is based on shorter moves of course, and may or may not be the level it stops at before a pullback for Small Wave 4, which the other FET of interest is 6082, as I covered on yesterdays long post.

I've added in some Tiny Waves and Extra Tiny Waves to guess at how it could unfold. The FET's of interest for possibly tops of S3 are at 6009 and 6082. One of those targets should be where this market stops at and pulls back for S4. Then S5 will follow and depending on how much "time" is left will give better clues as to whether we end it all at the 6189 FET or the 6435 one.

Lastly I want to point out that the Nasdaq, both cash and futures, are quite close now to making a new all time high.  The coming double top with them is likely going to line up with the ES hitting one of my Fibonacci Extension Targets, which I'd lean toward the 6082 one, possibly the 6189, but I give it lower odds.

So, once we see the NDX and/or the /NQ hit (slight pierce) a new all time high we should be close on the ES to the FET of 6082, and that should be the point where we (finally) get a pullback for wave 4, and then one more squeeze up into the end of this month (or the election?) to reach either my FET at 6189 or 6435.

Have a blessed day.

(Note:  I've changed the degree of the waves some in this update as I was wrong on them the last several weeks.  I was labeling expected Small Wave 4 down as Medium Wave 4, which is now corrected on new charts).

At this point I'm starting to think that we will NOT get any pullback  until either right before the election or right after it. Meaning they are going to chop everyone to death in a tight range (a hundred or so points?) until at least the end of this month, which is where we might drop into the election for Small Wave 4 down.

Or we wait until the day after and that's where we get the drop, which will be very fast and end by the middle of the month. Then we rip to 6000+ into the end of the year to reach one or more of my Fibonacci Extension Targets, which all of them are above 6000.

So, will the market reach 6000 before the coming pullback? I personally don't think it will because it's too obvious of a magnet. I think it falls short of it and does the drop first... then the year end rally takes us to 6000+ for the final blow off top. Between now and the election we should chop with some fake out drops that last a day, then reverse back up to the same level.

The 1 Hour Chart...

Then at some point, which I think will be right before the election, we'll get the drop for Small Wave 4 down.  I think it will be a higher low then the September low (around 5400).  Usually wave 2's and 4's of ALL degrees are some Fibonacci Level (23.6% or 38.2% are common and sometimes 50%) and they are simply calculated from different points based on their degree.

Meaning that the pullback for that Small Wave 2 down was calculated from the August low, which is Medium Wave 4, up to the first high inside Medium Wave 5 for Small Wave 1... which was the early September high.  The pullback there was about 50% for Small Wave 2 down and from that low we've been in Small Wave 3 up ever since.

The 6 Hour Chart...

Once Small Wave 3 up finishes, which should be before the end of this month I think (maybe this week?), or it could drag out right into the election, (I doubt it though as that's too obvious as it's a repeat of election day in 2016), we should see Small Wave 4 down happen.  It should be some Fibonacci Level retracement from the start of Medium Wave 5 up, which is at the August low of 5120.

If for example we top at 5920 in the next few weeks that's an 800 point rally up, so at most we could see 400 points down for the pullback if it's a 50% retracement, or less if it's only 38.2%, and even less if only 23.6%... which is not even 200 points down.  It's certainly possible that we see only a small amount of points, but I think we'll at least take out any stops below the lows of the last several weeks.  That's roughly the 5700 level, so I think the target is somewhere between 5500 and 5700 for the coming pullback of Small Wave 4 down.

After it's finished we should rally hard and fast to reach much higher levels above 6000 as you know they won't stop right at that obvious target.  I don't know how long that will take though as it depends on when we get the pullback for Small Wave 4 down.

If it comes this week then the big last squeeze up could go right into the election, who knows for sure?  I'm just focused on seeing that pullback for Small Wave 4 at some point soon and then Small Wave 5 up is the blow off top that will last as long as it last.  It might drag into the end of the year and nothing much happen around the election?  I doubt it though as it's super important and should cause the market some kind of volatility.

Now this thought is a "wildcard" one but what if we get the pullback for Small Wave 4 this week and rally up to 6000+ into the election to complete Small Wave 5, Medium Wave 5 and Large Wave 5?  That would setup the election as the big top before a very large drop, which could very well be down to the two FP's on the SPY from earlier this year?  But the rally up afterwards would only be for a lower high into early January and NOT the start of another bull market run that lasted for several years after election day in 2016.  So it would be different afterall.  Remember that it was not even a one day drop back then as it was in the futures market basically.  If we drop to the 483 level that will take a week or two to happen as it will be from 6000+ and that kind of a move down can not happen in one day.

Ok, that's my thoughts going forward into the end of this year.  It's subject to change of course as it's always just a best guess.  I'll add one more thing that could happen, which is more of a "big picture" scenario.  While everyone is expecting a recession (or depression) in 2025 I think they could all be wrong and right but be tricked on how it unfolds.

The Daily Chart...

I've drawn some alternative paths that could happen into the end of this year and early 2025, which not many will see coming.  If we drop to the FP on the SPY of 483 after the election then everyone will short the rally back up.  But if we haven't hit the FET of 6435 before that drop (and I don't think we will) then we could squeeze into early 2025 to reach that level, and then drop to sub-4000 the next half of the year.

That would fool a ton of people as if you get close to the 2022 low of 3502 everyone will think it's going to be taken out.  But if I'm right we should bottom before that level for Extra Large Wave 4 and then have one more 2 year rally for Extra Large Wave 5, which might reach 8248.90 (a new calculated FET if 6435 is hit).  This is all just more "food for thought" but it's very possible that it plays out something like this, and the chart below shows the alternative wave count.

The Alternative Wave Count...

Have a blessed day.

Yesterdays rally up to a new high fooled me. I was looking for that move last week after the non-farm payroll report but instead they just did it as we go into the CPI this morning. It's now ran a bunch of stops above the prior high, and could go a little higher to hit more with some knee-jerk reaction from the CPI, but after that I just don't see the move continuing to 6000+ without some kind of pullback first.

Obviously this changes the short term wave count as now this new all time high is the Small Wave 5 up inside Medium Wave 3, which I had moved to have topped at the 9/26 high. Clearly that's not the case and the sideways chop the last week or so has been Small Wave 4 and we are in Small Wave 5 up now. Once it completes, which should happen after the CPI's shakeout, fakeout moves, Medium Wave 3 will finish too, and we should see Medium Wave 4 down follow.

I still think the move is coming before 6000+, and that it should be very short lived, like 2-3 days max. The downside target is still the same, which is somewhere between 5550-5600 on the ES. We've seen drops like this before and it could all be finished in one day, I don't know? But the faster it happens the more bears will short it and that means the move up afterwards will be that much stronger as well. Let's just see what happens.

Have a blessed day.

List Of P-Diddy's Guests...

We had the move up yesterday for Tiny Wave 2 inside Small Wave C down, which stopped just shy of the 10/6 high of 5808 that ended Small Wave B up and started Tiny Wave 1 down inside Small Wave C down. We hit 5806.75 into the close yesterday for Tiny Wave 2, and this is all setting up a large move after the CPI this Thursday.

I think it's down of course but it could be up too. I'll take my chances though as I just don't see the move up to 6000+ until we get a pullback first. We also have the minutes from last months FOMC today at 2pm EST, which might cause some movement? But usually nothing much is said new so I think the most important event to cause a big move is the CPI on Thursday  Here's a chart...

What I'd like to see for today is a slow move down into the close that stops just above the horizontal support from yesterday to lure in some bulls looking for a break higher on after the CPI, but that might be wishful thinking, who knows? If the wave count is right though we should be starting Tiny Wave 3 down, and again, that might subdivide into 5 smaller waves.

So the perfect scenario would be down early in the day for Extra Tiny Wave 1 and and small bounce back up into the close for another lower high for Extra Tiny Wave 2 up. Maybe something like a move down to 5750 early and back up to 5800 later on. It would keep everyone guessing on the next direction as not many would see the bearish wave count. Will that play out? Who knows? We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

Since yesterday failed to rally up to a new high I have to think Medium Wave 3 is finished. I've moved the Tiny Waves around a little bit to mark the finishing point for Small Wave (and Medium Wave 3) at the 9/26 all time high of 5830 on the ES. From there Small Wave A down inside Medium Wave 4 starts, and it completed a the low on 10/3 of 5725, which was the end of Tiny Wave 5... then the Small Wave B up ended at the bounce high of 5808 on 10/6.

The decline today is just Tiny Wave 1 inside Small Wave C down, and of course all C waves unfold in 5 waves and the 1's, 3's, and 5's inside them could subdivide even more. But since this is only a smaller degree wave it's likely just going to be 5 waves, which will be tiny waves.  Here's a chart below...

Once this first Tiny Wave 1 completes (might already be done?) we should get a small bounce for Tiny Wave 2, and if I had to guess this entire move should be over with by the end of this week. Now Tiny Wave 3 down "might" subdivide into 5 waves, which will be Extra Tiny Waves, and I only point that out because the CPI is this Thursday and there's a lot of time between now and then, so it might need to subdivide to eat up that much time.

Whether or not we drop into the CPI is not known.  We could top from some bounce and drop hard for the Tiny Wave 3 of Small Wave C, or we could be going into it with a low, but either way once the FP on the QQQ is hit I think the bottom will be in for Medium Wave 4 down and Medium Wave 5 up will follow and last into the end of the month (most likely).

It could be faster I guess but I'll be looking for a big blow off top to happen. I really feel strongly that the satanists that run this world will hit a ritual number again like they did at the 2009 low when they hit the 666.79 on the SPX. Meaning we could hit 6066 on the ES or SPX, or 606.66 on the SPY, but I do think they will do it.

So if you are short already you know the downside target now to exit at, and to get long for the last rally before the big drop happens.

Have a blessed day.

The Non-Farm Payroll Report did give the market the rally was I looking for, which faded after the open into midday and then went back up into the close, but it never did make a new high, so it could end up being a "truncated" Small Wave 5 up. It's hard too say for sure but I still think we will go down this week for Medium Wave 4 with this Thursday or Friday being the most likely time for the low, but if they still want a new all time high first it should happen early in the week, like today or Tuesday at the latest.

As for the coming pullback, it should be fast and short lived as the A and B wave will probably look small and not be noticed, which traps bulls before a dump.  Meaning we could stay in a range between the low around 5700 up to the all time high until the Small C Wave sets up.  That might last into this Wednesday, which then you could see a quick 5 wave move down into Friday to hit the new FP on the QQQ from last Friday's post.  We have the CPI on Thursday, which could be blamed for the drop?

That will be the scariest move and will perfect for getting the bears to call for a crash. Of course that's also when they will get trapped and be used as fuel to be squeezed hard right back up for the last rally before a bigger drop.  It should last for several weeks, and could be right into the election?  They never make this easy. It's always tricky, so for me I'm just focused on the down side target to be hit as that's the bottom for the move and next will be the final rally up.

Have a blessed day.

Today is the big day, at least I think so. If I'm right we will have a fast squeeze up after the NFP Report this morning, which ideally we run the stops above the 5830 level, but of course that's not guaranteed. Maybe it's only a slightly lower high, or I'm completely wrong and we tank.

But usually there is a fake out move first, and up would be the biggest trick I think, and then down the rest of today and into late next week. Now, thanks to a member of the blog who sent this to me, I have a new FP that should mark the low of this coming pullback into next week. Here it is...

That is a slightly higher low on the QQQ then the September bottom. If the ES/SPX drops the same in percentage then 5.68% down from the close yesterday will equal about 5415-20 on the ES, which is a slightly highly low on it too, when compared to the 5394 low on September 6th.

On the SPX though it would be slightly lower then it's 5402 low as 5.68% equals 5377 from yesterdays close. Now I doubt if that prior low gets taken out, so most likely the drop for the ES/SPX won't be the same 5.28% on the QQQ, but slightly less. But it certainly gives us the target to exit shorts and go long for the last rally up to 6000+ into late this month.

Get read as today and the next several weeks are going to be wild.

Have a blessed day.

The market most likely finished Small Wave 4 down early yesterday, which puts us in Small Wave 5 up now. Of course it will have 5 Tiny Waves inside it, but it's not worth trying to macro manage (guess) on those kinds of moves... in my opinion at least. I think it's better to just wait for Small Wave 5 to finish, which will finish Medium Wave 3 up too.

Again, I think it will make a slightly higher high to hit the stops above 5830 on the ES and odds still suggest it will happen after the Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday. And we could see the early part of the day hold up there around that new high in the cash market for awhile (remember that the report is released an hour before the open so the squeeze will play out then). But that rally up should NOT hold all day and should rollover and start down into the close. It might not be a lot but it should be back down in the 5750-5800 area, and of course that move will just be the start of Medium Wave 4 down.

Naturally it will unfold in an ABC move, so the first drop will be the A wave down, which will be a Small Wave. On a smaller scale it should unfold in 5 Tiny Waves, and most likely will be finished by next Monday or Tuesday (best guess of course). After that would be a fast squeeze up for the Small B Wave, which I don't think will last more then one day. Lastly will be Small Wave C down, which might have 5 waves inside it (Tiny Waves) but many times they are hard to count as C waves can look more like a straight line down when on the small and tiny scale.

The drop into the 8/5 low to complete Large Wave 4 was Medium Wave C down, and it looks like one long wave, so I have to think it could look similar for a small wave too. This looks like it might complete by next Thursday (or Friday) and then we rally up into OPEX the following week to start Large Wave 5 with 6000+ as the final high... and that could be right into the election?

The next FOMC meeting is the day after on Wednesday November the 6th, so if there's ever going to be a large drop will be after that time period as both events will be blamed for it. As for the coming low price target for next week I still think it will be higher then the 5394 low on 9/6 as Medium Wave 4 should not go lower then that low for Medium Wave 2.

If I had to guess I'd say we'll pierce 5600 and hit the mid-5500 zone and that's all. After that should rally but again, it will be choppy for a week as the Small and Tiny Wave 1 up and 2 down carve out, which will align up a Wave 3 later this month, and that's all inside Large Wave 5 up. I think this month is going to fool a lot of people as while I still think we have a fast "crash like" drop coming I think it won't happen until after the final high of 6000+, which should be into the election.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday I posted a chart update on Twitter with an updated short term wave count, which showed yesterdays drop as a Tiny C Wave inside a Small Wave 4. Below is that chart again...

Once that completes, we should see a strong rally up to above 5830 for Small Wave 5 up inside Medium Wave 3, which might be into Friday? Meaning we should start today to get the Tiny Wave 1 up and 2 down out of the wave, which sets up Tiny Wave 3 up to happen after some positively viewed Jobless Numbers on Thursday.

I'm just looking at the technicals first and adding in the "events" to get things going as I really don't care what the numbers are. It's about the charts, not the "events", but they are sparks to get things going and that's why I'm mentioning it. If this plays out then Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report should cause the top and drop, which since it's out before the open the high in the SPX cash "might" happen Thursday into the close?

Now keep in mind that the market might also rally up Friday and hold into the close to make everything look rosy for the weekend. Then something negative comes out and we drop for Medium Wave 4 early next week, and if that happens the market will need to hold above the prior low for Medium Wave 2, which was 5394 on the ES. As long as that happens then it can still go back up to 6000+ the rest of the month or right into the election.

It's going to be a wild October with many moves up and down I think, but at some point late in October, or possibly ealy November, the top will appear and then the market will fall off a cliff, which I think will hit my 483 FP on the SPY and that will put in the low for this year. Then a December rally and another larger drop in the first quarter of 2025 with 3800 SPX very possible.

As for today, again I'm looking for some chop down around the low with the Tiny Wave 1 up and 2 down getting finished to setup Thursday for a squeeze.

Have a blessed day.

We got a small pullback yesterday but then a late day squeeze came in and stopped horizontal support from breaking. This might continue all week long and turn the wave 4 pullback into a sideways correction, which will still be a valid wave but a frustrating one for any bears that are trapped or bulls wanting a pullback to get long at. It could also be just an A wave inside an ABC pullback for wave 4 that could still have a C down later this week to that falling white trendline of support.

This market feels more like it's just waiting for some kind of news event to rally higher (or sell off?), which might be this Thursdays Jobless Claims number or the Employment Situation on Friday (more commonly called the Non-Farm Payroll Report).

If we go into it with a low then I'd look for the NFP Report to cause another rally after it.   Of course if it's at a high into it then I'd look for a pullback.  Or, we go into it sideways, which would be the hardest to figure out.  I lean toward that happening as it will keep everyone guessing.  If that happen the market won't rally much from it most likely because it won't have pulled back first to get short term oversold.  I'd then look for 5850-5860 to hit the stops above 5830 to be the target.

Then we should reverse back down and start either the wave 4 that I'm looking for, which would be to the falling white trendline, or to start the big drop to possibly the FP on the SPY at 483 as the top "could" be in at that point?  There is no way to really know for sure on the move to 6000+ that many are looking for.  If we drop to the support zone, where the white falling trendline is at,  into next Monday or Tuesday it will be up to the Fed to say something positive on Wednesday the 9th at the reading of the September meeting.

Of course Powell and leak something out at any point really but the market will want to hear that they are doing more rate cuts to get going up strongly again with that 6000+ target in mind.  If they disappoint and say no more rate cuts the market will fall off a cliff and the top will be in I think.  Bottom line her is that I think we need more time to pass before it will finally exhaust itself.  Then a pullback should start of some degree.

Have a blessed day.