Sorry gang, I had a busy afternoon. Just a video update again, as I’m to tired to write up a new post. Plus, not much has changed, except we are one more day closer to the coming crash.
Red
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Monday Update…
We hit our target area of 1080 in the morning reversed hard off of it. That might be all we’re going to see? If you’re already short, I’d stay that way even if it rallies tomorrow or Wednesday. People are now talking about the Hindenburg Omen, and that it was confirmed on Friday.
We’ll, if I had to guess I’d say we are going to see it happen this coming Friday as panic sets in. We could open up tomorrow with a gap down very easily. Will it happen? I don’t know, but any rally is just a shorting opportunity now that we reached 1080 and technically fulfilled a wave 2 retracement back up.
We are in a period now where the best thing to do is to hold on to your shorts and not try to swing trade in and out of the market, as you might not get another good re-entry spot again. If we bounce any at all, the 1070 level is now going to be resistance, and would be another good shorting spot.
Ok, that’s about it for now. As I said in the video’s below, after we rally up for the wave 2 the rest is a down hill ride. We hit our target area today, so now it’s time to look out below…
Red
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Lookout below, an avalanche is coming!
Yes folks, the much anticipated Wave 3 of 3 of 3, etc… is here now. The next few weeks should see the market fall down to a low of Dow 8300, and it will probably end around the Legatus Pilgrimage meeting. It could bottom in the middle of it, but I’m leaning more toward the end of it… maybe even the end of September.
After the bottom is in (not the final bottom of course), a major wave 2 back up should happen and continue until the end of the year I believe. Why so long? Because I think the Illuminati members coming out of the Legatus meeting will implement another Stimulus package to rally the market.
This will be done as a political move by the Obama gangsters to try and win the democratic majority with the November elections coming up for the house and senate. Anna and I were discussing this and it makes a lot of sense from a political stand point. There is also the possibility that Obama will extend the Bush tax credits that are due to expire at the end of the year.
This should rally the market higher, as many long term investors won’t have too sell this year to keep from being taxed at a higher rate on long term capital gains. The republicans will be happy too, which would help Obama too.
Moving on the technical side of things…
The TA’s say that we are rising back up the 60 minute chart, and should continue to rise until Tuesday or Wednesday. At that point, I expect us to fall into a minute wave 3, of major wave 3 of primary wave 3… which is the bulls’ worst nightmare!
So gang, I’ve said just about everything I can think of in the video’s above. I think we will rally a small amount into Wednesday and then fall off cliff after that. Maybe 1080 area, or a little higher… but regardless of how high it makes it, Thursday and Friday should be heavy selling. Just look for the 60, 30, and 15 charts to peak out around late Tuesday or early Wednesday would be my guess.
Then hop on the inter-tube (or ski’s for the brave) and ride it down the snow slope from hell…
Red
P.S. I’ve been waiting for this wave 3 ever since I started this blog. It’s finally here and I don’t know how to act… it’s that ironic?
Just a simple video update for Friday. I’ll have more on my weekend report by Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend everyone….
Red
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But don’t count the bulls out yet…
Well gang, I’m bummed out. I missed the call yesterday, as I really expected it to pop up to 111.17 first… and then sell off. I guess that will be the high for next Thursday or Friday now, as I certainly don’t see that happening tomorrow.
That’s the only problem with the FP’s… you never know when they are going to hit. But, at least some of you were able to make some profit on the move down. I know Jim said he was 40% short, and I’m sure many of the rest of you were also positioned short.
For me, I’m looking forward to the next turn date as I think it will make today’s move down look chump change. If it is a wave 3 down, then it’s going to be really ugly! That would mean that we are now going down into the Legatus Pilgrimage, instead of up.
So, coming out of the September 9th-20th meeting you can expect some type of new stimulus package to rally the market back up. How high is anyone’s guess. Let’s first see if we are indeed in Primary wave 3 down or not? With that DIA 118.16 print still not fulfilled, it is still possible that they run the market up into the end of the year and hit that level before ending P2.
Yes, it seems highly unlikely now, but anything is possible. Getting back to tomorrow, I’d say we have a quiet day ending flat or up at the close. Remember, tomorrow is opx day and they will likely pin the spy where it benefits them the most.
So, as long as the double bottom holds, I’d expect a move up into the afternoon session. I seen an afterhours print of 109.79 spy, but that could have been a late fill. It seems pretty unlikely that we rally that high after a move down like today, but again… anything is possible.
The 15 minute chart ended today forming a bear flag and with the histogram tower rolling over. I would expect it to sell off quickly in the morning, maybe down to retest the double bottom, and then roll back up throughout the rest of the day. The 60 minute chart will be rising up too, supporting the 15… so that should give the market a little lift into the afternoon. Add in light volume, no more economic data or news, and traders leaving early for the weekend… and you have a decent chance of closing positive tomorrow.
Next week will be something I’ll cover in the weekend report…
I think the top is just about in now gang. I see one more pop higher tomorrow… to the 111.17 FP level, and then the selling to begin. I don’t have any idea if it’s going to be a really big move down or if that will be next week on the turn date of the 26th-27th, but I see some serious selling coming soon… be ready.
And then larger wave 3 of (Possibly) Primary wave 3 is ready to start. It’s the wave that you might see once every 90 years or so… well, at least to the magnitude this one is! While I’m not positive that we are in Primary wave 3 down yet, as many others still think we are in Primary wave 2 up.
And I can’t rule that out, as I still have unfulfilled upside FP of DIA 118.16, but they is no telling when we will hit it. Could be next year or longer, who knows? But, the charts tell me that we are likely to head down into the Legatus meeting instead of up.
Maybe they cashed their checks back in April, and are now waiting for any great buying opportunity to happen. Certainly they could find some great bargains in the market if we go down to Dow 8300 into the meeting next month.
Think of it like this, if you tank the market now (when no one is expecting it), then you can rally it in October, when everyone is looking for a crash to occur… and steal the masses’ money of course. LOL
So to sum it up…
I see a move up to the FP of 111.17 spy tomorrow, and then a possible flat to slightly down move into Friday. However, should they not be able to spin the data positive on Thursday morning, it could start the wave 3 down before the end of the week. We know they want to hold it there to squeeze out the bears letting their puts expire worthless, but can they?
Holding this wave 3 back isn’t going to be easy too do… especially if the reports on Thursday are really bad. But, you should never underestimate the power they have to control this market. As I mentioned at the end of the video, there is a turn date on the 26th-27th that looks very powerful according to the chart on the spiraldates.com site.
There is a less powerful turn date on the 19th, which would make more sense since this is opx week. Maybe we peak at 111.17 tomorrow and slide back down to 109 area by Friday? That’s not a big move down, but would reflect a small reversal as indicated by the chart only having a “1″ spiraldates score.
However, I don’t fully understand the chart, and the “score” could simply mean that it has “x” amount of chances of turning on that date, but doesn’t indicate the strength or power of the move occurring. So, if a turn date has a “1″ for it’s score, and it does actually turn on that date, the intensity of the move isn’t known or reflected in the chart. Hopefully that makes sense to you?
Not much to add, but I thought I’d just share a few feelings mainly. The charts could go either way at this point. Be careful in both directions…
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So what’s next you ask?
This coming week should be a tricky week as they will likely rally up to squeeze the bears at some point, before finally falling off a cliff into a large wave 3 down. Early Monday morning could produce a sell off to fulfill the bear flag that was made during Thursday and Friday’s trading session.
Should it play out, then I could see us falling to around 1070 to fill that gap made on the 22nd of the month. That would also fulfill the FP of 107.35 spy that we still haven’t hit exactly. While we did come close with a 107.59 print, we might not have gotten close enough to call that print “fulfilled”?
If we do fall, I expect it to be bought up and a rally to start with an upside target of around 1100, before we start back down again. This is opx week, and they will squeeze some bears out before taking it down really hard into wave 3, which could start as early as this coming Thursday or Friday. While they could also delay it until next week, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start it this week.
In the past, they would pretty much have all the positions closed out by Wednesday of opx week, and Thursday and Friday would just trade sideways with light volume, closing out the week with little movement past Wednesday. But that was during the last years’ run up to the April high. The market was trending higher then, and the stimulus money was still being pumped into the market.
Now the market is trending down and the stimulus money is being taken out of the market. Traders are now more on edge and quick to hit the sell button, should the usual data on Thursday and Friday not be viewed as good. I’ve noticed that Friday’s haven’t been so boring ever since we peaked in April.
We have the Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, and Philadelphia Fed data on this Thursday… all of them should move the market. So, if we rally for 3 days straight, and hit the 1100 area target on Wednesday, then Thursday could send the market back down again.
However, if we don’t rally ahead of that data, then I would expect the data to be spun as positive, and therefore cause a relief rally to put in wave 2 back up. But, I’m leaning more toward a rally starting on Monday, after a possible early morning drop to key support and gap fill around 1070 spx.
So, down to 1070 Monday morning, then turn back up and run for 3 days to 1100 or so… and finally start the wave 3 back down on Thursdays’ disappointing data. Will it happen like that? Probably not, but that what I see in the charts right now.
Of course there is always the possibility that we continue selling off all next week, with very little bounces. But the fact that it’s opx week tells me they will likely squeeze these new shorts out of the market before tanking her hard. I just don’t know if it will start late this week or be pushed off to next week. That daily chart looks oversold right now, and could take longer then I expect to reset back up and be overbought again. We’ll just have too take it one day at a time.
For now, I give it a 50/50 chance of the bear flag playing out Monday morning, but whether it does or not, I expect a rally to start back up toward the 1100 area asap. Too many bears on board now, they aren’t in the business of giving them a free lunch. If you are short and haven’t sold yet, you might get your chance early Monday morning to get out.
If you can wait out the ride back up to 1100, then great… but most bears will likely exit and sit on the sidelines until another shorting opportunity is available. Just be careful there bears as nothing goes straight down. However, with that being said… this large wave 3 coming should be a bear feast. I hope everyone is ready and makes a killing from it.
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