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... Geccko23

Today’s big pop was to be expected. The indices had been closing quite a bit below their lower BB for several days and a certain little component of a certain little indicator was quite oversold and didn’t have much more room to run to the downside. But today’s pop could be just a one day affair.

With last Friday’s big downday on the 100 year anniversary date, the SP, Dow, NYA closed below their 34 EMAs which also turned down which is a configuration that generally proceeds a fast hard move down. The Nasdaq hadn’t quite achieved that technical set up but it did on Monday as it also finally managed to break below its lower BBs as the other indices had done on Friday.

There was also the setup of the 9 EMA crossing beneath the downtrending 18 EMA which is the precursor to fast moves down. The MACD signal lines had also crossed from an extended level and were now downtrending at a steep angle. Basically the indices are in a technical setup which produces a pronounced downdraft from which it is difficult to reverse from especially from an abruptly bullish upday that just takes the index back up to the lower BB and near to the downtrending 9EMA.

Even if there is more of a followthrough to the upside the MACD is indicating that there will be a drop to a new low before the signal lines can crossover again. But a certain little indicator which just recently dropped below its lower BB is indicating this is probably just a short term pop since it tends to run quite awhile below its lower BB once it does drop below it and its current move is still in its infancy. MACD signal lines need to get quite a bit below the O line before a bottom can be considered. They’re currently around the 0 line.

Anyway, 12-19 and the new moon are approaching and I would look for a continued drop into those events. A move below the weekly Parabolic SAR is the most likely target which is around SP1940 but it could take another week of dropping below that target before a bottom is formed.
Or maybe we just remain on denouement watch in case all traditional rules are broken. 12-19 is a highly valued date but it will be hard to get to oversold enough levels by that date.

There was a Greek election today. The Dax certainly didn’t get as excited today as the US market did. (It did have its big bounce the day before….also popping off its lower BB having just arrived down to its lower BB.)

... Red Dragon Leo

Quite rare to see such a big down day on the Friday. Next week doesn’t look to be very bullish yet either as there’s a lot of market moving news out that could prevent the old “bullish as usual” crap. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday should certainly prevent anything positive happening on Monday or Tuesday. Maybe they can get something going later in the week but it’s not looking good right now.

... Red Dragon Leo

Odds are 19 of 30 that today closes green… and the charts agree with a rally into the close.

... Red Dragon Leo

We “might” have topped for the year? Not sure yet but it’s looking like we might be starting Primary Wave 4 down, which should be 200-400 SPX points over 2-4 months. So while I think we are going to rally some next week I’m getting the feeling it won’t put in another higher high and instead put in a lower one, which means we could see some much larger wave of selling occur starting the first of 2015.

... noclue

What in the world is going with the VIX? Acting like end of the world coming.

... Red Dragon Leo

Today looks a lot like October 8th…

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