We got the move back to the 50% retracement zone at 1875. It would be even better would for a 61% retracement back to about 1850.That would give us the kind of extreme conditions that could spawn a final blow on phase over the next 3-6 months.
Hopefully no one took me serious on going long MCHP after it gaped down. As for the market we sure look like we flushed out today into the close. While we could (and should) gap down Monday I suspect it will reverse hard as the ES Future will have re-hit the 1890 low from August.
And the SPX will likely pierce through it’s current low and bounce too as it puts in a double bottom. There’s the 200dma at 1905.35 and the prior low at 1904.78, so surely they will hit them and possibly pierce through them and the even number 1900 level to lure in the last bear.
Then we should see our bounce into the rest of the week. I’m not looking for a lot but 1950-1960 is possible. There are a ton of puts expiring in the 195 and 190 strike prices this coming Friday that the market makers won’t likely want to pay out. I’d estimate there are 5 to 10 times the normal amount of puts at those levels and more then normal at other levels too.
Monday the market is open but bonds aren’t because it’s a holiday. It’s Columbus Day so the volume should be light in the 2nd half of the day and only heavy at the open when everyone expects it to crash. Naturally if everyone expects it to happen it’s not likely going to. But the weeks following this coming week I expect the market to fall off a cliff.
Sorry about the video being locked on the new post guys. I accidentally set it to private when it should have been set to public so everyone could see it. I fixed it now. Try it again (http://reddragonleo.com/2014/10/12/will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash-in-2014)
From “where” to “where” are you talking about Scott? What’s your starting point and ending point for your call?
We got the move back to the 50% retracement zone at 1875. It would be even better would for a 61% retracement back to about 1850.That would give us the kind of extreme conditions that could spawn a final blow on phase over the next 3-6 months.
TVIX Update: http://screencast.com/t/1BUFkwjUOVw
Should bounce from the lower blue trendline in this chart I’d think: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/335493930;
Fear index at extreme yet market still doesn’t want to bounce: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
SPX Update for Tuesday October 14th, 2014: http://screencast.com/t/COGLwtdJCR
New Post: http://reddragonleo.com/2014/10/12/will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash-in-2014
Hopefully no one took me serious on going long MCHP after it gaped down. As for the market we sure look like we flushed out today into the close. While we could (and should) gap down Monday I suspect it will reverse hard as the ES Future will have re-hit the 1890 low from August.
And the SPX will likely pierce through it’s current low and bounce too as it puts in a double bottom. There’s the 200dma at 1905.35 and the prior low at 1904.78, so surely they will hit them and possibly pierce through them and the even number 1900 level to lure in the last bear.
Then we should see our bounce into the rest of the week. I’m not looking for a lot but 1950-1960 is possible. There are a ton of puts expiring in the 195 and 190 strike prices this coming Friday that the market makers won’t likely want to pay out. I’d estimate there are 5 to 10 times the normal amount of puts at those levels and more then normal at other levels too.
Monday the market is open but bonds aren’t because it’s a holiday. It’s Columbus Day so the volume should be light in the 2nd half of the day and only heavy at the open when everyone expects it to crash. Naturally if everyone expects it to happen it’s not likely going to. But the weeks following this coming week I expect the market to fall off a cliff.
Time to go long now if Goldman Sucks is telling everyone to sell… http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Goldman+Sachs+Sees+15%25-20%25+Downside+Potential+in+Semis+%28ADI%29+AVGO%29+%28MXIM%29+%28NXPI%29+%28ONNN%29+%28TXN%29/9902945.html