Hopefully no one took me serious on going long MCHP after it gaped down. As for the market we sure look like we flushed out today into the close. While we could (and should) gap down Monday I suspect it will reverse hard as the ES Future will have re-hit the 1890 low from August.
And the SPX will likely pierce through it’s current low and bounce too as it puts in a double bottom. There’s the 200dma at 1905.35 and the prior low at 1904.78, so surely they will hit them and possibly pierce through them and the even number 1900 level to lure in the last bear.
Then we should see our bounce into the rest of the week. I’m not looking for a lot but 1950-1960 is possible. There are a ton of puts expiring in the 195 and 190 strike prices this coming Friday that the market makers won’t likely want to pay out. I’d estimate there are 5 to 10 times the normal amount of puts at those levels and more then normal at other levels too.
Monday the market is open but bonds aren’t because it’s a holiday. It’s Columbus Day so the volume should be light in the 2nd half of the day and only heavy at the open when everyone expects it to crash. Naturally if everyone expects it to happen it’s not likely going to. But the weeks following this coming week I expect the market to fall off a cliff.
While it’s possible they go back down one more time and touch the 200dma at 1905.31 SPX on the daily chart and either pierce it to make a lower low to fill the ES Futures 1890 low from August I’m leaning toward the low being in now and a choppy rally up the rest of the day and into Monday.
The heaviest selling pressure is usually in the first one or two hours and since it’s 11am now I get the feeling it’s about dried up. The noon time period could allow the market to float up some and hold the current low. While everyone is looking for that prior SPX low of 1904.78 to be taken out I find it’s common to either fall short of a target or pierce through it.
This time I think we are going to fall short of this target. This opens the door for another move down within a week or two to finally break it. However, on the next move down it should go past it quite a bit as it will be the 3rd time down and a pierce only it’s likely to happen.
I’ll be looking for the next level of support down in the1800’s to be the target once it breaks it. For now though I’m short term bullish for about a week with next Monday likely being up the strongest.
Looks like we’re going to find out about the 1905 part of it real soon. And a week ago..I didn’t think ebola could be a long term negative economic factor. Now I’m thinking it’s quite possible it might. Bad shit there. Folks cancelling flights and cruises and other stuff all over the world.
Fear index at extreme yet market still doesn’t want to bounce: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
SPX Update for Tuesday October 14th, 2014: http://screencast.com/t/COGLwtdJCR
New Post: http://reddragonleo.com/2014/10/12/will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash-in-2014
Hopefully no one took me serious on going long MCHP after it gaped down. As for the market we sure look like we flushed out today into the close. While we could (and should) gap down Monday I suspect it will reverse hard as the ES Future will have re-hit the 1890 low from August.
And the SPX will likely pierce through it’s current low and bounce too as it puts in a double bottom. There’s the 200dma at 1905.35 and the prior low at 1904.78, so surely they will hit them and possibly pierce through them and the even number 1900 level to lure in the last bear.
Then we should see our bounce into the rest of the week. I’m not looking for a lot but 1950-1960 is possible. There are a ton of puts expiring in the 195 and 190 strike prices this coming Friday that the market makers won’t likely want to pay out. I’d estimate there are 5 to 10 times the normal amount of puts at those levels and more then normal at other levels too.
Monday the market is open but bonds aren’t because it’s a holiday. It’s Columbus Day so the volume should be light in the 2nd half of the day and only heavy at the open when everyone expects it to crash. Naturally if everyone expects it to happen it’s not likely going to. But the weeks following this coming week I expect the market to fall off a cliff.
Time to go long now if Goldman Sucks is telling everyone to sell… http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Goldman+Sachs+Sees+15%25-20%25+Downside+Potential+in+Semis+%28ADI%29+AVGO%29+%28MXIM%29+%28NXPI%29+%28ONNN%29+%28TXN%29/9902945.html
While it’s possible they go back down one more time and touch the 200dma at 1905.31 SPX on the daily chart and either pierce it to make a lower low to fill the ES Futures 1890 low from August I’m leaning toward the low being in now and a choppy rally up the rest of the day and into Monday.
The heaviest selling pressure is usually in the first one or two hours and since it’s 11am now I get the feeling it’s about dried up. The noon time period could allow the market to float up some and hold the current low. While everyone is looking for that prior SPX low of 1904.78 to be taken out I find it’s common to either fall short of a target or pierce through it.
This time I think we are going to fall short of this target. This opens the door for another move down within a week or two to finally break it. However, on the next move down it should go past it quite a bit as it will be the 3rd time down and a pierce only it’s likely to happen.
I’ll be looking for the next level of support down in the1800’s to be the target once it breaks it. For now though I’m short term bullish for about a week with next Monday likely being up the strongest.
The last 23 of 30 Monday’s the week of option expiration week have be up so I do think we’ll rally after a flush out to 1900 area (probably tomorrow).
geno0010 • 10 hours ago
I’m predicting a flat market Monday
Truth_Doctors geno0010 • 10 hours ago
You might want to wait for Greed is Good to weigh in on that.
🙂
Yep… thank you Bill Gates for patenting Ebola and spreading to everyone to kill off some the population of the sheep.
Looks like we’re going to find out about the 1905 part of it real soon. And a week ago..I didn’t think ebola could be a long term negative economic factor. Now I’m thinking it’s quite possible it might. Bad shit there. Folks cancelling flights and cruises and other stuff all over the world.