The low came this morning so today is not the best day to short I think. Thursday still looks to be the top as this strong move up was likely some kind of wave 3. There should be a wave 4 down and a final wave 5 up happen before we tank. I’m passing on shorting the wave 4 down as the risk/reward isn’t good enough for me. I’ll wait until Thursday now.
We should see a little bit more on the upside tomorrow (most likely in the first half of the day) and then rollover and go back down with a slightly higher high expected then the low today. Meaning if we get up to 1990-1993 SPX it’s a short down to just above 1978.
It should be safe to hold your short position into Wednesday morning for that low to be hit. Then exit for the rally prior to and after the FOMC minutes at 2pm. Thursday should rally up a little more then Wednesday and should also be higher then Tuesday’s high. Estimated high is 1995-1998 area (but I wouldn’t rule out some quick move up to hit 2000 one last time).
Another short can be taken in that high zone on Thursday and not sold until the end of the first week of October. By then I’m expecting a low below 1700 SPX before a one week rally to start.
I think the plans have changed now. It appears they are going to delay this drop one week. I’m now looking for next Friday to be the start of the big drop. We should bounce Monday and then slightly top on Tuesday. Then down into Wednesday morning, back up on Thursday to put in a double top from Tuesdays high… which could be around 1995 area.
Thursday appears to be the best day to take a short for a really big drop. I was expecting it to happen today and Monday but “they” aren’t allowing it, But a big drop is still coming and I’ll be ready to short again on the 18th. Until then it’s just short one day trades for me… in and out.
This whole choppy action of up down up down for the last 3 days is just a nice bear flag. The question is “When will it breakdown?” I still think we are going down as previously stated but they might hold the market up today and drop it into Monday.
However I would expect today to close down with the recent 1983 low holding (if they plan to hold it?). But there’s still a possibility that they will chop around all day and then tank it into the close after most traders have left for the weekend. They are very sneaky as we all know but pattern wise this big bear flag should breakdown by Monday or the close today.
EW is of course easy to label after the fact before the fact is hard too read sometimes. Others probably see didn’t counts then I do but if my count is correct we have just finished the wave 2 up or will finish it at the open tomorrow should it gap up.
The wave 3 down should start tomorrow and if it takes out the current low there’s not much support below that is really strong. There’s the 1970 area then the mid-1950’s but big support is of course at the 1905 double bottom.
However there’s a rising trendline coming in around 1942 so that might hold. Regardless, once it gets steam going down past the 1985 area of support it should drop hard and fast all day Friday. The key is when this wave 2 up ends? I see a clear ABC and hitting 1998 makes the C wave equal to the A wave.
But if the C wave is 1.618% then it could grind higher all day Friday and not drop until Monday. I don’t think that’s the case though as it just looks and feels too weak. And we are still under most moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud as seen in this chart:
You’ll only be called fool by some if they somehow run this sucker up to SPX 2100(ish) by the end of the month.- I don’t see that happening..but ya never know the way this market acts these days, We’re going to need ALL the key indexes to take a big killing at once..and see that VIX spike up to 20 or 25 to get the SPX below 1900 and much lower down to 1800 by the first week of Oct i think.- We shall see soon I guess.
SPY Update: http://screencast.com/t/ADiYnPn3
The low came this morning so today is not the best day to short I think. Thursday still looks to be the top as this strong move up was likely some kind of wave 3. There should be a wave 4 down and a final wave 5 up happen before we tank. I’m passing on shorting the wave 4 down as the risk/reward isn’t good enough for me. I’ll wait until Thursday now.
We should see a little bit more on the upside tomorrow (most likely in the first half of the day) and then rollover and go back down with a slightly higher high expected then the low today. Meaning if we get up to 1990-1993 SPX it’s a short down to just above 1978.
It should be safe to hold your short position into Wednesday morning for that low to be hit. Then exit for the rally prior to and after the FOMC minutes at 2pm. Thursday should rally up a little more then Wednesday and should also be higher then Tuesday’s high. Estimated high is 1995-1998 area (but I wouldn’t rule out some quick move up to hit 2000 one last time).
Another short can be taken in that high zone on Thursday and not sold until the end of the first week of October. By then I’m expecting a low below 1700 SPX before a one week rally to start.
SPX target after top on this Wednesday/Thursday: http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/ES-1679-mar9b.jpg Time frame: 2-3 weeks.
ES Futures Update: http://screencast.com/t/H6sIDYBbBLAj
I think the plans have changed now. It appears they are going to delay this drop one week. I’m now looking for next Friday to be the start of the big drop. We should bounce Monday and then slightly top on Tuesday. Then down into Wednesday morning, back up on Thursday to put in a double top from Tuesdays high… which could be around 1995 area.
Thursday appears to be the best day to take a short for a really big drop. I was expecting it to happen today and Monday but “they” aren’t allowing it, But a big drop is still coming and I’ll be ready to short again on the 18th. Until then it’s just short one day trades for me… in and out.
This whole choppy action of up down up down for the last 3 days is just a nice bear flag. The question is “When will it breakdown?” I still think we are going down as previously stated but they might hold the market up today and drop it into Monday.
However I would expect today to close down with the recent 1983 low holding (if they plan to hold it?). But there’s still a possibility that they will chop around all day and then tank it into the close after most traders have left for the weekend. They are very sneaky as we all know but pattern wise this big bear flag should breakdown by Monday or the close today.
Ok..thanks for the response and sounds good. I’d love to see the market get a good correction here. Looking forward to tmrw’s action. 🙂
EW is of course easy to label after the fact before the fact is hard too read sometimes. Others probably see didn’t counts then I do but if my count is correct we have just finished the wave 2 up or will finish it at the open tomorrow should it gap up.
The wave 3 down should start tomorrow and if it takes out the current low there’s not much support below that is really strong. There’s the 1970 area then the mid-1950’s but big support is of course at the 1905 double bottom.
However there’s a rising trendline coming in around 1942 so that might hold. Regardless, once it gets steam going down past the 1985 area of support it should drop hard and fast all day Friday. The key is when this wave 2 up ends? I see a clear ABC and hitting 1998 makes the C wave equal to the A wave.
But if the C wave is 1.618% then it could grind higher all day Friday and not drop until Monday. I don’t think that’s the case though as it just looks and feels too weak. And we are still under most moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud as seen in this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/335493930;
They could use the retail sales data Friday to gap it up or tank it. Either way I think we’ll have an exciting day tomorrow.
You’ll only be called fool by some if they somehow run this sucker up to SPX 2100(ish) by the end of the month.- I don’t see that happening..but ya never know the way this market acts these days, We’re going to need ALL the key indexes to take a big killing at once..and see that VIX spike up to 20 or 25 to get the SPX below 1900 and much lower down to 1800 by the first week of Oct i think.- We shall see soon I guess.