The first reaction from the FOMC is usually a fakeout move. I think we’ll close green today and probably just under 1980 SPX by a few points. Then I think the jobless claims numbers will be bad enough to get us one more move down to that major support area of 1950-1955 SPX, at which point I’d go long into next week for a nice bounce.
But I’m not even thinking about going long today as this looks like the classic bull trap right now with the bear trap coming tomorrow morning with the expected gap down and fall to that zone. Then a reversal should happen and stick this time with a carry over into early next week before peaking out again.
No question now gang…. I missed the short. The C wave down should be over with by 2pm today I now believe as I suspect we’ll rally after Yellen. Hopefully some of you were already short. I’ll be looking to go long right before the meeting as I think that’s where we’ll bottom at.
When the market looks so bearish you almost don’t want to short it because you know a squeeze is just about ready to happen. It feels like they are letting the bears pile on short here and will trick us all and rally right after Yellen speaks today. Going down into the meeting knowing that FOMC days are in many cases (not always of course) “turn dates” you almost have to think they will do the opposite of what we all expect and rally back up to new highs?
Nothing to do here but wait until 2pm to hear Yellen yell… LOL The best I could see is a move up to around where we opened today, which assumes the opening gap up was some kind of smaller A wave and the move down currently is the smaller B wave. So a smaller C wave up (should be weak) into the meeting is possible.
That whole ABC move would then make some kind of wave 2 up with the entire move down from the July 29th high making up some kind of wave 1 down (which had 5 smaller waves inside it). These 2 waves are inside a larger C wave down I believe and this C wave should have 5 waves inside it.
So far I think we’ve see the wave 1 down and we’re now seeing the wave 2 up. If all goes well, we should see the wave 3 down after Yellen and/or all day Thursday. It’s tricky right now though as I don’t want to take a short until this meeting is over with. Actually I might take it just in front of the meeting…. but we need a bigger bounce I think. Might not get one from the looks of things now.
ES Futures and SPX update: http://screencast.com/t/HS1sTh9q33dH
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CROX+Interactive#symbol=CROX;range=my
SPX and SPY update: http://screencast.com/t/VUmrTH27i
The first reaction from the FOMC is usually a fakeout move. I think we’ll close green today and probably just under 1980 SPX by a few points. Then I think the jobless claims numbers will be bad enough to get us one more move down to that major support area of 1950-1955 SPX, at which point I’d go long into next week for a nice bounce.
But I’m not even thinking about going long today as this looks like the classic bull trap right now with the bear trap coming tomorrow morning with the expected gap down and fall to that zone. Then a reversal should happen and stick this time with a carry over into early next week before peaking out again.
the bozo rally spiked up quick but lost some traction almost just as quick. Curious to see the rest of this afternoon play out
Who thinks the fat lady has now sung and the down move is over with?
I’m looking for 1955 SPX to be a buyer at…
No question now gang…. I missed the short. The C wave down should be over with by 2pm today I now believe as I suspect we’ll rally after Yellen. Hopefully some of you were already short. I’ll be looking to go long right before the meeting as I think that’s where we’ll bottom at.
With that said…
When the market looks so bearish you almost don’t want to short it because you know a squeeze is just about ready to happen. It feels like they are letting the bears pile on short here and will trick us all and rally right after Yellen speaks today. Going down into the meeting knowing that FOMC days are in many cases (not always of course) “turn dates” you almost have to think they will do the opposite of what we all expect and rally back up to new highs?
Nothing to do here but wait until 2pm to hear Yellen yell… LOL The best I could see is a move up to around where we opened today, which assumes the opening gap up was some kind of smaller A wave and the move down currently is the smaller B wave. So a smaller C wave up (should be weak) into the meeting is possible.
That whole ABC move would then make some kind of wave 2 up with the entire move down from the July 29th high making up some kind of wave 1 down (which had 5 smaller waves inside it). These 2 waves are inside a larger C wave down I believe and this C wave should have 5 waves inside it.
So far I think we’ve see the wave 1 down and we’re now seeing the wave 2 up. If all goes well, we should see the wave 3 down after Yellen and/or all day Thursday. It’s tricky right now though as I don’t want to take a short until this meeting is over with. Actually I might take it just in front of the meeting…. but we need a bigger bounce I think. Might not get one from the looks of things now.