I should have said “The 200 MA” that 60 minute chart of the SPX, which is around 1980 today, but falling. So tomorrow it could be 1970-1975 SPX. That’s the actual level I’m looking to be hit. But after it’s hit (or close to being hit) I do expect the market to roll back down and continue down into Friday. So yes, I’m still bearish for this weeks’ close.
For me it’s more about the time of day, the TA setup, falling and rising trendlines, etc… and less about that actual price level. Level’s rise and fall as time passes, so calling an exact level is tough. I’ll just say that “if” we gap up tomorrow and hit one of my many trendlines (and the other TA agrees… like overbought MACD’s, Sto’s, etc…) I’d look to short it regardless of what level it’s at.
For example, I see another falling trendline the SPY right now that’s coming in around 195.50 but could be around 195 even by the open tomorrow. That’s only about 1950-1955 SPX, and if we gap up to that level and the other TA stuff shows overbought I’d short from that area.
Meaning… I’m not waiting on some hit of the 200 MA tomorrow. The TA’s will tell me to short when they line up, and I’ll short no matter what the level is at.
Right now they are desperate to save yesterdays low at 1929. So far the low has been 1932. If they can’t hold us over 1930, we will indeed be visiting 1913.
By the way guys, I’m NOT suggesting a long here. This is more speculation on the move up to 1980 SPX. If wrong then we could barely move up and/or drop again tomorrow.
Again, I don’t like to play wave 2’s, 4’s, and B’s. I just look for the sure thing C wave and 3 wave. Right now we completing some wave down that could be a 2, 4 or B… nothing I want to gamble on. Elliottwave is best used “after the fact” and not for predicting the next big move.
Always use Technical Analysis first and fit the wave count into it… then you can see when a BIG move up or down is lining up. Right now I don’t see any BIG move up or down that is a “sure thing”. The only “sure thing” move was DOWN from last Thursday’s FOMC meeting. That was a 99%’er in my view. Now we are chopping around waiting for the next 90%’er plus to appear.
sold for quick lunch money.
ES Futures Morning Update: September 24th, 2015: http://screencast.com/t/2c1cvkWCL
Every day
I should have said “The 200 MA” that 60 minute chart of the SPX, which is around 1980 today, but falling. So tomorrow it could be 1970-1975 SPX. That’s the actual level I’m looking to be hit. But after it’s hit (or close to being hit) I do expect the market to roll back down and continue down into Friday. So yes, I’m still bearish for this weeks’ close.
For me it’s more about the time of day, the TA setup, falling and rising trendlines, etc… and less about that actual price level. Level’s rise and fall as time passes, so calling an exact level is tough. I’ll just say that “if” we gap up tomorrow and hit one of my many trendlines (and the other TA agrees… like overbought MACD’s, Sto’s, etc…) I’d look to short it regardless of what level it’s at.
For example, I see another falling trendline the SPY right now that’s coming in around 195.50 but could be around 195 even by the open tomorrow. That’s only about 1950-1955 SPX, and if we gap up to that level and the other TA stuff shows overbought I’d short from that area.
Meaning… I’m not waiting on some hit of the 200 MA tomorrow. The TA’s will tell me to short when they line up, and I’ll short no matter what the level is at.
Right now they are desperate to save yesterdays low at 1929. So far the low has been 1932. If they can’t hold us over 1930, we will indeed be visiting 1913.
copy.
I took NUGT for a quick trade. I have the feeling before end of Oct she will be trading at ~15-20.
Is anyone reading my blog anymore? Post a comment to let me know you are alive out there people. Thanks.
By the way guys, I’m NOT suggesting a long here. This is more speculation on the move up to 1980 SPX. If wrong then we could barely move up and/or drop again tomorrow.
Again, I don’t like to play wave 2’s, 4’s, and B’s. I just look for the sure thing C wave and 3 wave. Right now we completing some wave down that could be a 2, 4 or B… nothing I want to gamble on. Elliottwave is best used “after the fact” and not for predicting the next big move.
Always use Technical Analysis first and fit the wave count into it… then you can see when a BIG move up or down is lining up. Right now I don’t see any BIG move up or down that is a “sure thing”. The only “sure thing” move was DOWN from last Thursday’s FOMC meeting. That was a 99%’er in my view. Now we are chopping around waiting for the next 90%’er plus to appear.
ES Futures (and SPX) Midday Wednesday Update September 23rd, 2015:http://screencast.com/t/VDjBDrDixC
ES Futures Morning Update: September 23rd, 2015: http://screencast.com/t/QXhEwpFwe