Wednesday, June 12, 2024

In the Eye of a Hurricane…

Eye-Of-The-Hurricane

Today was yet another flat day, as everyone is waiting on earnings to be announced.  It feels like we have been in the eye of a hurricane, and we're slowly moving out of it, only to move back into the storm!  Will the market survive?  Only the next few days will tell.

I tend to believe that the next few days will produce selling, not rallying.  Even though Intel beat estimates, and that the market is up in the after hours while writing this post, I still like the odds to the downside.  I don't think all the earnings realised over the next few days will be so rosy.  Plus, you have economic news too... like jobs reports.

I know... I know...  all that numbers will be made up, and everyone will beat earnings.  Maybe?  But, I still went short today.  Yes, it's a gamble... in a rigged casino.  But, sometimes you have to take a chance.  Everyone is talking about Dow 10,000 now.  Seems to be a given, doesn't it?  Wouldn't the market just love to give all that free money away to all those bulls?  NOT!

The market loves to hurt bulls and bears alike.  I don't see many bears left in the market now.  That leaves mainly bulls!  How would you hurt the bulls if you could?  Dump the market hard the next few days, regardless of what the earnings are.

Then, rally hard next week to punish the bears.  Hey... I'm just trying to think like the crooks on wall street.  Everyone and their brother is long this market.  They all expect 1100 on the S&P and 10,000 on the Dow.   Will it happen?  I really don't know.  But, I'm short again from 107 today.  If I wrong... well, I guess I'll just lose some money.  If I right, then I'll make some money.  It's just that simple folks.

This isn't a game for the conservative people, it's a game for the risk takers.  Be prepared to lose big, or win big?

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Turbo Tim
Turbo Tim
14 years ago

Thanks

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Turbo Tim

The guys over at Mr. TopStep are selling rallies, instead of buying dips (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGMPEbVY3pE).

Meredith Whitney also downgraded Goldman today too. Things may be changing?

It's all up to the earnings over the next few days. It's the bottom the ninth, 2 outs and the banks are up to bat. Can you say “swing batter batter…swing”

Red

LuvvinIt
LuvvinIt
14 years ago

Still looking for the full 15% or 20% correction?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  LuvvinIt

After the selling starts, it should the 995-1000 area before a decent bounce. But, yes 15-20% is in the cards.

Douala
Douala
14 years ago

Very creative and clever post Leo. +1
I agree with your thinking. I see you are a risk taker. Can't wait to see what you have posted tomorrow after the bell.
Byeeeeeeeee!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Douala

I have no idea… I'd like to see what I post too! LOL!

nbg
nbg
14 years ago

I came across some information that tutes are selling into these rallies, and I had already agreed to that. It was nice to see more validation of topping at least short term.

Keep it up RED – You the man with the plan!!

LuvvinIt
LuvvinIt
14 years ago
Reply to  nbg

Tutues?

steveo77
14 years ago

I like your Warrior Trader thinking, and my puts are siding with your idea that it is time to punish the bulls, scare them at least!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

The bulls time is coming… that's for sure! We are so close to a top it's scary. Futures are up more as I write this, but that all could change when JPM announces earnings in about an hour.

It's a mine field the bulls are walking through right now. Let's hope the step on one and blow off a leg… or two!

pramood
pramood
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

JPM earnings 0.82 vs consensus 0.52 cents.

This is what I wrote yesterday pre-market-

“Another Flat/ Doji day today is my guess. 1070-1078 range. Tomorrow, we have to see if we can break above 1080 or break below 1070 to 1050 level. Everyone is expecting a break above 1080 towards 1100 this week. hmm…..Can the market screw us by a quick sharp drop to 1050 enticing bears to pile thinking P3 has started and then cause a one final mf shortsqueeze to 1100”

GL

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  pramood

Agreed. It's just to obvious to get up to that 10,000 mark. If everyone is expecting, then the market should do the opposite. You know there has too be a ton of October calls that are expecting 10,000/1100 by this Friday.

If I were the market, I drop it to support at 1040 so I wouldn't have to pay all those calls. But, for all we know, they are the ones' with the calls, and want it at 10,000 by Friday.

It's extremely tough trying to figure out this market, with so much blatant manipulation in it.

I feel like this is the matrix, and I took the red pill while everyone else is high on the blue pill.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

The bulls time is coming… that's for sure! We are so close to a top it's scary. Futures are up more as I write this, but that all could change when JPM announces earnings in about an hour.

It's a mine field the bulls are walking through right now. Let's hope the step on one and blow off a leg… or two!

PRAMOD
14 years ago

JPM earnings 0.82 vs consensus 0.52 cents.

This is what I wrote yesterday pre-market-

“Another Flat/ Doji day today is my guess. 1070-1078 range. Tomorrow, we have to see if we can break above 1080 or break below 1070 to 1050 level. Everyone is expecting a break above 1080 towards 1100 this week. hmm…..Can the market screw us by a quick sharp drop to 1050 enticing bears to pile thinking P3 has started and then cause a one final mf shortsqueeze to 1100”

GL

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Agreed. It's just to obvious to get up to that 10,000 mark. If everyone is expecting, then the market should do the opposite. You know there has too be a ton of October calls that are expecting 10,000/1100 by this Friday.

If I were the market, I drop it to support at 1040 so I wouldn't have to pay all those calls. But, for all we know, they are the ones' with the calls, and want it at 10,000 by Friday.

It's extremely tough trying to figure out this market, with so much blatant manipulation in it.

I feel like this is the matrix, and I took the red pill while everyone else is high on the blue pill.

Luvvinit
Luvvinit
14 years ago

Tutues?

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