Saturday, July 20, 2024

Light Volume Rules The Market Again…

Man_Napping_in_a_Hammock_Cartoon

Just as I guessed would happen, the market was flat.  A sell off in the morning, and then the usual slow grind back up in the late afternoon.  This seems to happen day in and day out.  Yesterday the market gaped open, and then rallied up some more in the first hour, only to slide back down the rest of the afternoon into the close.  The end result was a flat day.

So, ask yourself this question... If this Friday kicks off the big holiday buying season, and the government wants you to believe that the worst is behind us, what do you think the stock market is going to do?  Crash?  LOL!  Not on your life!  What do you think a 400-500 point DOW down day would do to the confidence of the shoppers about to go spend a bunch of money on Thanksgiving... and start their Christmas shopping too?

The best we could hope for is about 100 points or so down.  But, I seriously doubt that will happen as the market is dead set on making that 50% fib level around 112.30-112.50 spy.  If there wasn't any major goal in the cards, then a small down day could occur.  However, I believe the news out tomorrow, on the jobs and everything else, will be "cooked".  That's right folks... the government will get out their erasers and fudge all the important data tomorrow, so the market will rally some more.

If we don't hit that 50% level tomorrow, then Friday, or even possibly Monday it should be hit.  If this market wasn't so controlled by the dollar, (which the government controls completely), then I wouldn't put so much effort into writing and focusing about how the news is spun and the dollar controlled.

The technicals do work, but they can be delayed by the obvious manipulation by the government.  Many times when we should actually retrace to a 50% or 61.8% fib level, the government intervenes by dumping the dollar, and the market only sells off to the 38.2% level.  This will eventually catch up to the market, as you can only take so many hits of speed before you crash... and you will crash hard!

But, for now, I still say that we will hit the 112.30-112.50 level before any sell off will happen.  We might even push a little higher intraday to an even level like 113.00?  That will be the ideal place to short for a nice 5% or more pullback in the market.  It should last 1-2 weeks, before a Santa Claus rally starts and pushes the market back up some to end the year.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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annamall
14 years ago

hahah how did you know I had a hammock like that 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  annamall

It matches your Indian costume… that's how! Where's your Tee Pee?

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago

Great one Red … 🙂

This is exactly what I have been saying – mkt is not going to crash before shopping season / Christmas … if people don't spend – we will see a lot more retailer go under under year and that all spirals down to more job losses …. and even lesser spending – its a downward spiral and you can bet that the mkt will not be allowed to crash – 10-15% before next year …

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Thank you very much. I was beginning to think I was talking to myself.

PRAMOD
14 years ago

Hi Red,

Don't you think the “rally to 1120 this week” and “Market never goes down the day before and after Thanksgiving” trade is too crowded now?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  PRAMOD

I'm going to post this over at HOB too, but I just listened to an interview that is very interesting…

So, just in case any of you were thinking about going short tomorrow, think again…

According to Larry Presvento, the day after Thanksgiving has the highest percentage chance of closing higher. It is the “Single Most Positive Day in the History of the Stock Market”, with the highest number of days closing UP that day.

74% of time the day after… which is this Friday, is UP! Do you really want to go short now?

To listen to the audio interview by click here…

http://www.tfnn.com/sti/rss.xml

Find the “Larry Pesavento 11-23-09” link. Then click on the “redirect.mp3” just below it, and it will play.

The part where he talks about it, is toward the end of the interview.

Red

humble1 (tm)
humble1 (tm)
14 years ago

great stuff on LP, RDL. he is one of my favorites.

moon
moon
14 years ago

good stuff! a post of appreciation for your work and efforts

Captain_Koons
Captain_Koons
14 years ago

Good Stuff Leo. I really enjoy reading the bog everyday.

jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

thanks REd, for your comment at the Jaywiz blog
thats WHY I have posted several times

BEST short opp will be Friday after the OPEN

There will be a LOT of overrun from the aspects of Today, and tomrrow which should spill over to Friday am
where at 8:30am there is a Moon 120 Sun, but its an ARIES moon indicating a DIFFERENT DIRECTION

See the blog for other reasons why NOV 30/Dec 1st offer
a pivot low
Jay
Jay

jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

FAILURE to BREAK above 1121 at this juncture would be very bearish
They can still make a stab at it Dec7th to 10th
and or Jan 15th to 22nd
provided they dont test qtrly support at 9800, or 9400

Jay

jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

FAILURE to BREAK above 1121 at this juncture would be very bearish
They can still make a stab at it Dec7th to 10th
and or Jan 15th to 22nd
provided they dont test qtrly support at 9800, or 9400

Jay

jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

thanks REd, for your comment at the Jaywiz blog
thats WHY I have posted several times

BEST short opp will be Friday after the OPEN

There will be a LOT of overrun from the aspects of Today, and tomrrow which should spill over to Friday am
where at 8:30am there is a Moon 120 Sun, but its an ARIES moon indicating a DIFFERENT DIRECTION

See the blog for other reasons why NOV 30/Dec 1st offer
a pivot low
Jay
Jay

Captain_Koons
Captain_Koons
14 years ago

Good Stuff Leo. I really enjoy reading the blog everyday.

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