Rocky Gets Back Up Again…

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Once again, the market stays afloat.  I don't know how many fingers Bernanke and team have, but it's seems that they managed to keep the dam from busting one more time! I guess Spain isn't a big enough country to be of enough significance to cause any panic in the market, as they had their credit rating lower today, but the market ignored it.

rocky_and_bear

I've never seen such a long time period where the market just won't go down.  It's like Rocky Balboa or something... you keep punching it, but it keeps getting back up! It's time to retire Rocky!  Give it up man!  You're old and tired, let someone else step up and take over... like the "BEARS" for God's Sake!  These Bullish Bulls are too full of Bullshit, and need a good lesson given too them.  Sheessh, I'm getting tired of working so hard just to get the crooked government to come in take my money again.

Argggh...

This market should already be on it's way down, but I think they might hold us in this stupid sideways channel until the end of year, or decade... or maybe until every last Bear is dead!  Hell, I don't know?  Regardless, once again I'm staying short!  Time definitely isn't on my side, as options' expiration is next Friday, but I still see a fall coming before then... if this dead horse will every die?

Moving on...

The Financials are now getting bought up as the money moves out of commodities and into the banks again.  That, plus the constant selling of the dollar (from "The Three Stooges" of course) seemed to get the market back up again.  I borrowed the chart below from "The Chart Pattern Trader", and once again I added my thoughts in Yellow.

The-Chart-Pattern-Trader-spy-60-minute-12-09-2009

I'm looking for a possible break out (but just another "Head Fake") of the top downward sloping trend line tomorrow, and then a big gap down by Thursday or Friday to take out the 1085 support line, and to fall all the way to the bottom downward sloping trend line... which should be around 1070 by then.  But, for tomorrow... we have to wait for the MACD to rise up above the zero level and curl back lower by Thursday or Friday.

It should be a lower tower then the one just before it, around December the first.  This will create a negative divergence, and that along with other indicators should cause the gap down to occur.  Of course some future news event will be blamed for it, but it's coming... with or without the news.

Red

176 COMMENTS

  1. Tomorrow “IS” Thursday. Maybe you meant work its way down Thursday and/or gap down Friday. Cheers. Thanks. Keep up the good work.

    • Yeah, your right…

      I forgot what today was. I meant that it will go up tomorrow (Thursday) and then reverse on Friday or possibly Monday. It could be blamed on the retail jobs report Friday, or something over the weekend to cause it to gap down Monday.

      Regardless of the news, it should fall within a few days. The 1070 area is the target I'm looking for. Then, I expect it to rally back to about 1090 by OPX.

      Red

    • Last news I know of….

      PEORIA, Ill., Dec 09, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ — The Board of Directors of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) today declared a quarterly cash dividend of forty-two ($0.42) cents per share of common stock, payable February 20, 2010, to stockholders of record at the close of business January 20, 2010.

      • Thanks Leo much appreciated although i was referring to their chart – looks to me like they have broken a long term line of support and i am tempted to take a big short position but i am a just a newbie and would like the assurance of knowing what a pro thought!

        • Looking at the chart, it looks like it's ready for a bounce, as it just hit the 200dma. That candle from yesterday shows indecision. I wouldn't go short unless it closes today below yesterday's low.

          That would be a conformation of a lower move to come. You also have about 6 days down in a row. That tells me that it should bounce back up from here. Look at the previous times it fell 4-6 days… it bounced.

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cat&p=D&yr=0&m

          I wouldn't go short at this point. Too oversold, and hasn't confirmed a break of the 200dma. It's needs 2 days in a row closing below it, with the 2nd day closing below the low of the 1st day.

          Red

        • ….and 'newbies' shouldn't be taking 'big' positions of ANY kind (other than cash)…..even 'oldbies' are well advised toenter a trade gradually as it performs as expected, exiting rapidly if it does not.

          • Thanks for your concern and advice which also is much appreciated – Fear not though I think that my idea of “big” might vary somwhat from your own.

            Leo was on the nail though – i have got a top of Trendline at @7,000 do you think it will get there?

  2. Firstly, what I think is big vs what you think is big does not matter. If you're the trader & it feels big to you, then IT'S BIG. So please go back & review my first piece of advice(this is some painful experience talking here). Enter the position slowly, adding to winners.

    re: top of Trendline @ 7000, you HAD been talking about CAT. Are you now talking about the Dow? I'm assuming Dow – my long-term objective is probably around 4500 or lower…….UBER Bear here.

    • Point taken will heed!
      Sorry i meant $70 – wish i knew how to post charts here it would be much easier but ive got rising parallel trendlines for CAT bottom is at @$60.88 and top at@$70 because we had shot so low beneath the bottom i thought it was heading south but from what Leo says it sounds more like going to $70

  3. ….and 'newbies' shouldn't be taking 'big' positions of ANY kind (other than cash)…..even 'oldbies' are well advised toenter a trade gradually as it performs as expected, exiting rapidly if it does not.

  4. Thanks for your concern and advice which also is much appreciated – Fear not though I think that my idea of “big” might vary somwhat from your own.

    Leo was on the nail though – i have got a top of Trendline at @7,000 do you think it will get there?

  5. Firstly, what I think is big vs what you think is big does not matter. If you're the trader & it feels big to you, then IT'S BIG. So please go back & review my first piece of advice(this is some painful experience talking here). Enter the position slowly, adding to winners.

    re: top of Trendline @ 7000, you HAD been talking about CAT. Are you now talking about the Dow? I'm assuming Dow – my long-term objective is probably around 4500 or lower…….UBER Bear here.

  6. Point taken will heed!
    Sorry i meant $70 – wish i knew how to post charts here it would be much easier but ive got rising parallel trendlines for CAT bottom is at @$60.88 and top at@$70 because we had shot so low beneath the bottom i thought it was heading south but from what Leo says it sounds more like going to $70

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