Monday, May 27, 2024

So Far So Good…

So-Far-So-Good-by-Bryan-Adams

Looks like the market rallied a little today as expected.  I don't have anything to add today, as I explained it all in my weekend post.  I'm looking for another flat to slightly up day tomorrow, and Wednesday.  I'm still looking for a fall to 108.00 SPY by Friday (or Monday).

I expect the market to sell off either Wednesday afternoon, or Thursday.  It should hit the 108.00 level by Friday or Monday, and then I expect a 2-5 day rally.  Nothing much has changed from my weekend post.  So far everything is following the plan.  Of course life is never that easy, and it wouldn't surprise me if something happened too throw the plan off.

Hmmm... what could it be?  At break of the 108.00 SPY level would cause a huge sell off to occur!  Let's hope it holds on the first hit, and rallys back up.  I'd like another opportunity to get short again from a higher level.  So for now, I expect the level to hold and produce a bounce.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Red – I am afraid too many people think this for it to come to fruition. Right now, the futures have had a large selloff and it looks like we are going to gap down tomorrow morning. But, I hope you are right!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Monica, if that happens… then 108 spy will be hit and a multi-day rally will occur. Then once it's done, you will have the perfect opportunity to get short.

Don't pay too much attention to after-hours, as the price can move a lot more then normal hours. I've seen it down 10 at night, and wake up in the morning and it is up 10.

Right now it's trading overseas, and that's why it's down. Wait to see what it's at in the morning. I don't see any big moves down until after the 2:30 pm est Wednesday FOMC meeting, and then later at night the State of the Union address… about 8 pm (I think?).

Then Thursday and Friday should sell off to 1080 spx, and maybe even pierce it intraday to lure in more bears. Don't be fooled. It's really good support at that level and should hold on the first hit (90% chance of a 2-5 day bounce).

If you want to get short, then look for the high on Wednesday. They might run it up into the FOMC meeting, and then go flat until Obama speaks at night. Of course the markets will be closed and you will need to get a position before the close.

They could sell off after the FOMC meeting, but I really think they will wait until the next day, so they can hear what Obama says.

Look for 111.50-112.00 spy as the high on Wednesday… if it gets there? I don't know if it does or not, but it shouldn't get through it. So, if it comes close to it and it's getting close to 2:30 on Wednesday, that might be the best place to go short for a move down to 108.00.

Be prepared to hold it until about Monday at the latest. If it hits 108.00 at anytime before then… get out and take your profits. Sit in cash for the following week as it will bounce higher… but not worth going long on.

I'm still short google and will get out when the market hits 1080 spx or so. The hardest thing for me to learn was to have patience and not to sell when I see the first little bit of profit.

You have to stick to your plan. I'm sticking to mine, and I know that 1080 has the highest probability of a bounce. Therefore, I will close my shorts only when it's hit.

You shouldn't go short unless you feel the market is high enough to profit from if it falls to 1080? If it falls tomorrow to 1080, then you missed your opportunity, and you should sit on the sidelines until the market retraces back up… which will take a week or so.

Don't chase this move down! Let me repeat that… Don't Chase this Move Down! If you miss it, stay out. If it retraces back up into the FOMC meeting, and you think it's high enough then you can go short, and hold until 1080.

Red

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, you are so cool to take the time to write this response to me. I will listen to you and if I profit from you, I will send you a slice! I will not chase and I will be patient. I got long today and sold after the close for a profit but I won't do that again as I can't stand being long.

I guess my biggest fear is that I have been short forever. Now that i have finally covered I am so scared that market is going to fall off a cliff right before my eyes. If we drop below 1080 tomorrow I am going to cry!

Anyway, your post at least makes me feel good enough to go to sleep!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Sleep tight then… I'm going to bed myself. Good Night

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Buenas noches!

Romaitas
Romaitas
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Wow Red… Thanks for the confidence building post.

Sweet dreams

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Awesome post Red – so imp for those of us new to this 🙂

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Monica, Nice play on the TNA. I know you are glad to be out. I still like TNA better for day trade.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

Well, I think we might actually pop today and I may get back in. But, it did allow me to sleep last night as the futures were caving in. Seems we always hit keep support levels in the overnight market so then it's hard to decide what to do the next day!

Crash Gordon
Crash Gordon
14 years ago

Thanks for all this again Red

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

GM, Red

Seems like a nice place to hang out until Anna get things figured out.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

GM, Red

Seems like a nice place to hang out until Anna get things figured out.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Monica, Nice play on the TNA. I know you are glad to be out. I still like TNA better for day trade.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Well, I think we might actually pop today and I may get back in. But, it did allow me to sleep last night as the futures were caving in. Seems we always hit keep support levels in the overnight market so then it's hard to decide what to do the next day!

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago

Awesome post Red – so imp for those of us new to this 🙂

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