The market is looking pretty scared right now. It rallied a little, and then sold back off into the close. Tomorrow night is what the market is waiting on. Although I think we will go up into the events, it is possible that we sell off tomorrow in anticipation of bad news from Obama... (which never happens as he's a great liar) and then start the 2-5 day rally from the low tomorrow.
It's hard to guess at this point? I'd only recommend that if you are already short... stay short. We are either going down into the events (FOMC meeting at 2:15 and State of the Union after-hours) or down after them. Either way, I expect 108.00 to be hit. I will look to close my shorts there... assuming that it doesn't pierce the level with huge volume!
That's one of those "iffy's" as I'm only assuming that it will hold on the first hit. Now that's on a "closing bias", not intra-day. I do believe we could pierce it intra-day to suck in more bears, and then close right at the support level... which could setup a good place for a bounce... with "could" emphasized!
This is a tough place to be if you aren't already short. You Damn sure don't want to go long when it hits 1080, as it's way too risky! So, you hope for a rally into the FOMC meeting, or a rally on Thursday (after Obama yaps his jaws late Wednesday night).
I'm sure our smart President will save us from this mess we're in... right? After all, I know how Patriotic he and his wife are... just look closely at how well they honor the Pledge of Allegiance by holding their right hand over their heart (ops... that's their left hand! Must be a new trend to use your hand with your wedding ring on it?)
Red
I haven't gone short yet but am hoping for the run up tomorrow to jump in as I've been waiting for a window since the prior drop from 114.
GL and thanks Red
I'm really hoping that we go down to 108.00 spy or so by Friday and close out January in the red. Then run up the first week of February as I posted on my weekend update, and then crash around the 9th or so.
That would be perfect, as the cost for straight puts would be cheap due to the lower vix and time left until they expire. A 2 week down move into OPX is perfect! Let's hope it happens as planned.
Hi Red – nice post. Couldn't help myself. Got short at the highs today. Just rather be in it for the long haul even if I have to ride a wave up. That would be less painful for me then missing a leg down. Futures action looks like you may get your rally tomorrow but I just think things never happen the way we expect them to. Perhaps we will rally after the announcement?! If that happens, the shorts will start covering which will produce an even bigger rally?! It will be interesting to see. All I know is that I am staying short.
And by the way, I am not sure I like the way the government has been running things, but I don't think Obama is evil. I do believe he wants to the best for the country. His way of going about it may be off – that remains to be seen.
I don't trust him girl… he has too many middle-eastern friends! Let's just say that I'm still waiting for the first African American President. You're welcome to your opinion on him, and I have mine too.
Yes, I welcome your opinion and have friends who share it.
But, I also have many middle eastern and pakistani muslim friends as well and I happen to be Jewish and a supporter of Israel. So what does that make me?! Anyway, even if our political views are different, I appreciate all your help and value your opinion 🙂
Monica,
Some of his middle-eastern friends are suspected terrorists. I don't have anything against middle-eastern people. In fact, I feel really sorry for them, as they are kept poor by the ruling elite in all of those countries.
As far as Israel… don't be surprised if Obama turns his back on them, when they really need help. It's coming… it's says it in the bible that Israels' friends (that's America) will turn their back on them in the last days.
I think that many of those people are taught to hate Americans, only because they don't know any better. They just want the same thing we do… freedom!
I'm a slave here in America too… it's called a JOB, just like many of them are over there too. Yes, I'm fortunate to have a little safer life… and I'm thankful for that.
My issue with Obama isn't just one thing… it's all the little things that add up together. I didn't like Bush either… another liar, that stole our money and sent troops to fight a stagged war… for profit of course.
Anyway… enough about Obama.
As for you… you need to get out of your short if we go down to 108.00 spy tomorrow. There is a whole lot of support there. I think it will bounce back up for a week after it hits that level. Don't hold on to it, as the time decay, and lower vix will kill your option… even if we stay flat for a week.
I'm looking for a slow grind back up to… maybe 112.00 by February 8th-10th. And then the be sell off to happen.
Red
P.S. I'm a supporter of Israel too, and when they fall… so does the world I believe. And, I still like you 🙂
Ha ha Red! Have you always been a conspiracy theorist? I only have been as of late and it's probably from reading blogs like yours! My family thinks I am crazy. I hope what you are thinking doesn't come to fruition but I wouldn't be surprised if you are right. I don't have options. I only trade bearish indexes. What if we get through 108 on volume?
I used too be a conspiracy theorist, but since I've found out what's true and what's not true… I'm not one anymore.
If we get through 108.00 (on a closing bias), the next stop is 104.00!
What's up with that photo? Kind of creepy!
Yeah… it is! And it's real, not a doctored image. Notice where the buttons are on his suit jacket… they are on the right side, exactly where they are supposed too be for a man. A woman has buttons on the other side.
That shows that it's not a doctored image, as you can't do that with Photoshop. It would be too hard, and show very easily.
Then there is the wedding rings on both of their hands. Do you know of anyone that wears their wedding rings on their right hand? I don't…
This guy is evil… and doesn't support America or it views. He won't even salute the flag, or say the pledge of allegiance… and he was sworn in office officially (the second time) without a bible.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_…
Hmmm… and this guy represents who? Not the remaining 77% of America's that believe in Christianity. (Not preaching religion here, but the facts speak for themselves… and remember that America was built on a Christian Belief).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/117409/easter-smalle…
Thanks for the updates. I agree with Monica. You like to stir the pot with politics. I find it interesting to read. I don't take to much away from it. Keep up the good work you are doing here and the contributions you make at other sites I visit. You are now a bookmarked site for me.
Something tells me they are going to rally the heck out of this thing out of the announcement forcing everyone that has gone short here to cover, making the rally even more pronounced. It just seems too good to be true right now. I'm hanging onto my shorts regardless.
Monica… are you still short? Get out tomorrow on any pull back. We should have a dip at some point tomorrow. Probably to about 109.20-109.30 area. That's where we opened today.
I think they will take it up to about 112.00 over the next week, as I posted in my weekend update. You have too learn to sit on the sidelines if you miss the big move… which you miss by the way!
Don't be so stubborn! I've lost more money then I care to remember by hanging on and hoping. There will be a rally, and if you are still short… you will lose.
Would you rather get out with a small loss tomorrow, and wait for a week or so, to re-enter at 112.00, or almost all of it wishing?
Suck it up… throw pride out the window and take your loss like a professional! Stop trading like an Amateur! You're better then that. Plus you have many people like myself and Anna telling you and helping you along the way.
Get out! Sit on sidelines! Get back in when we finish rallying in about a week or so!
Red
Thanks Red Dragon! Didn't go short today. Went short at the highs yesterday so I am OK. I will cover tomorrow. But my question is, you said to short after today's rally during the FOMC meeting. So, why now are you holding off and speculating that the market is going to 112? My issue is that everyone is speculating that it will go to 112. I don't think the market is that easy. The drop will catch us all off guard when we least expect it to. Yes, now we have oversold indicators but when there is a crash, all the indicators will be reading oversold. Anyway, it's not about pride or being stubborn. I am wrong a lot of time (including this time) and I admit it. But, that is why I am more fearful of trading in and out rather than just hanging tight. I think we all have to define our time frames and mine is longer term. Problem is I don't know how long I can take it going against me.
Monica,
We hit an intra-day low of 1083… that might be close enough? So, we could have finished a smaller wave 4 up (inside of the larger wave 1 one down… from 1150-1083) on that pop higher to just under 1100.
If so, then the wave 5 down is finished too. That means that we could be starting the larger wave 2 up (from 1083 to ?… maybe 1120 area). This up move could last a week or more and chop around quite a bit.
So, your downside is severely limited right now. That's why I would get out and sit on the sidelines. If we're not finished with the wave 5 down move, then we could fall to 1080 tomorrow… but it's just not worth the risk (IMHO)
Red
Like the explanation – thanks Red. Watching State of the Union address. Anyway, whatever you think of him, he is a motivating speaker.
He's a great speaker Monica… but so was Hitler! (Not saying he's Hitler… just saying he's good). I like how he's going to take 30 Billion of the money the banks paid back, and re-give it back to them to give out more bonuses… errrr, I mean loan out more money! Yeah, right!
Well in all fairness, he said he would give the money to community banks, not investment banks. Still don't know how feasible that one is.
Monica… are you still short? Get out tomorrow on any pull back. We should have a dip at some point tomorrow. Probably to about 109.20-109.30 area. That's where we opened today.
I think they will take it up to about 112.00 over the next week, as I posted in my weekend update. You have too learn to sit on the sidelines if you miss the big move… which you miss by the way!
Don't be so stubborn! I've lost more money then I care to remember by hanging on and hoping. There will be a rally, and if you are still short… you will lose.
Would you rather get out with a small loss tomorrow, and wait for a week or so, to re-enter at 112.00, or almost all of it wishing?
Suck it up… throw pride out the window and take your loss like a professional! Stop trading like an Amateur! You're better then that. Plus you have many people like myself and Anna telling you and helping you along the way.
Get out! Sit on sidelines! Get back in when we finish rallying in about a week or so!
Red
Thanks Red Dragon! Didn't go short today. Went short at the highs yesterday so I am OK. I will cover tomorrow. But my question is, you said to short after today's rally during the FOMC meeting. So, why now are you holding off and speculating that the market is going to 112? My issue is that everyone is speculating that it will go to 112. I don't think the market is that easy. The drop will catch us all off guard when we least expect it to. Yes, now we have oversold indicators but when there is a crash, all the indicators will be reading oversold. Anyway, it's not about pride or being stubborn. I am wrong a lot of time (including this time) and I admit it. But, that is why I am more fearful of trading in and out rather than just hanging tight. I think we all have to define our time frames and mine is longer term. Problem is I don't know how long I can take it going against me.
Monica,
We hit an intra-day low of 1083… that might be close enough? So, we could have finished a smaller wave 4 up (inside of the larger wave 1 one down… from 1150-1083) on that pop higher to just under 1100.
If so, then the wave 5 down is finished too. That means that we could be starting the larger wave 2 up (from 1083 to ?… maybe 1120 area). This up move could last a week or more and chop around quite a bit.
So, your downside is severely limited right now. That's why I would get out and sit on the sidelines. If we're not finished with the wave 5 down move, then we could fall to 1080 tomorrow… but it's just not worth the risk (IMHO)
Red
Like the explanation – thanks Red. Watching State of the Union address. Anyway, whatever you think of him, he is a motivating speaker.
He's a great speaker Monica… but so was Hitler! (Not saying he's Hitler… just saying he's good). I like how he's going to take 30 Billion of the money the banks paid back, and re-give it back to them to give out more bonuses… errrr, I mean loan out more money! Yeah, right!
Well in all fairness, he said he would give the money to community banks, not investment banks. Still don't know how feasible that one is.