Once again the Federal Reserve Board did nothing. Â Not that I was expecting them to raise rates, but it's more about what they say, then what they do (or don't do). Â I'm sure everyone expected them to leave the rates the same, but what are their plans for the future?
The answer is... nothing much! Â In other words, they didn't say anything to give the market hope, or to cause a sell off. Â That was one of the reasons the market was basically flat today (small up, but nothing like the down day on Tuesday). Â This was too be expected, as most Fed Day's are UP day's.
However, even though the market did go up a little... it looked VERY Weak today. Â Every time the market tried to rally today, it would quickly sell off. Â This is one tired Bull, and I look for it to continue selling off this week. Â Possibly another flat day tomorrow (Thursday), but I really doubt it on Friday. Â I can't see many traders holding over the weekend with all the bad news out in the market today.
Greece is still in trouble and other countries are too. Â Any trader that holds over the weekend, with another possible bad news event being released while the market is closed for 2 days, is gambling with fire. Â Fear is back in the market and most people will sell first, and ask questions later.
While another sideways day is still possible tomorrow, I think we will fall to the 117.50 spy support level by Friday. Â It could happen tomorrow, if the job's numbers aren't viewed positively? Â Either way, the odds of a large up move are slim now, as the Bears have gained back a lot of power.
Best of luck to both the Bulls and Bears...
Red
Nice post. Thanks.
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1192 – 1205. A swing to 1270 is underway.
1178–1192 actual yesterday (14 points)
1198.50 high last night
1192-1205 estimate for today (13 points)
1197 currently, so estimate is -5 to +8 from here (A bit Bullish)
Looks like we melt higher again… I don't think it will hold though.
Considering the PRICE action today I would have expected this advancing volume to fly. Hummmm
Whats your opinion on this RED.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV
You know… when I was looking at the charts yesterday, the MACD's were clearly oversold, and looking to go up today. But, when the MACD's are overbought and looking to go down, the market doesn't sell off.
It just rallies more and the MACD's get more over bought. So, I expected the same when the market finally did sell off, as I was looking for more of an “oversold” MACD, but it's didn't happen.
It seems that when the market is oversold, and pointing back up, it will roll back up like it's supposed too. But, when it's overbought, it won't sell off like it should.
Meaning that the MACD overbought/oversold charts only seem to work in one direction… Bullish.
Kind of like the old saying… Heads I win, Tails you lose!
You just can win being a Bear in this market. The Bulls never die it seems. They are like Zombies! Quiet sickening if you ask me.
WooHoo! Carl is back in the game!
Carl just went Long one unit at 1197.25
Sometimes I feel like I'm rooting for the “Bad News Bears”…
Holy Cow!
Carl just went Long second unit at 1201.50
Carl is one gutsy trader… I really think this is just a blow off top. But, I guess that doesn't matter if you are day trading.
Red,
Seems like a lot of considerations go away when day trading. I can see why people get attracted to it.
Only downside is all the money that's lost from getting it wrong 🙂
Seems almost impossible to swing trade this market. Day trading or trend trading is about the only way to succeed it seems…
Here is a nice clue. Notice the huge gap on the today-yesterday VIX? Looks like it needs to close the gap on this one and soon. Looks like a revisit to the down side soon.
APPL closed the gap today as well
I guess filling those gaps what the market what's too do first. Let's see if they get them all filled today. I still think this is a fake out, and we will have more selling coming.
FTSE is underperforming the SPY today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#chart1…
It's clearly not participating in the rest of markets' rally. The market seems so quiet now, and the blogsphere seems dead. It's like all the bears are asleep now.
Kinda like being in the eye of a storm…
Carl at day’s end:
1192-1205 estimate for today (13 points)
1195.75–1206.25 actual today (10.50 points)
Close enough.
Trades:
In /ES at 1197.25 & 1201.50 – did not sell. Currently 1205
Grade: B (looks like money gets made tomorrow)
TZA opened down 2.2%. TZA was down 0.3% at the high, and closed down 6.3%.
A gap from $5.82 to $5.80 remains unfilled.
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold signal for today. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed at $5.45, so this trade is now down 1.6%
Volume for TZA today was average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 8.3% with TZA down 6.3%. No divergence.
TZA was down four days then up two, and now down two. Bad for TZA.
The low for TZA was from two days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.44, 2.6% higher.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator fell from 37 to 35 while TZA closed down 6.3%, no divergence technically, but the reading of 35 held up very well considering how far TZA fell. Seems like a bit of a divergence. Bad for TZA, but might be positive at some point.
MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up a bit, but no rise today. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday’s long black candle closed below the upper Bollinger band after two closes above it. MACD is aggressively rising. Seems to be working towards a $RVX sell signal. I need to research this.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle moved towards the upper Bollinger Band, which is flat. Looks like the possible resumption of the up trend. MACD rolled over (down) yesterday, but seems to be recovering. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): the black candle of 2 days ago was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band (This last happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days) and today closed well above it. I need to research this.
TZA had a lower high, much lower low and much lower close – Bad for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 685 million flowing out of the market on a big down day 2 days ago.
$ 1,404 million flowing out of the market today on a down day yesterday.
$ 1,276 million flowing into the market today on an up day.
Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TZA.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA had a Wait signal, was up a lot today, and has a highly reliable BUY-IF for tomorrow. The TNA sell was at $69.05 (AB price), and the close today was at $69.53, up 0.7% since the sell. The candlestick today was a Long White Candlestick (strong buying pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bullish Kicking Pattern.
TZA had a Hold signal, was down a lot today, and now has a highly reliable SELL-IF signal for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.44, down 10 cents since the buy. The candlestick for today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bearish Kicking Pattern.
Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
Buy at $5.54, down 1.8%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until the last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, sell at $69.10, up 22.3%
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +8
Hold: GLD(gold, up 2.2%), EWU(England, down 4.1%), SLV(silver, up 7.0%), UCO (2x oil)
New Confirmed Buy: QQQQ, DIA, SPY, USO(oil)
Transition to Market Positive:  +6
Possible Buy: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), IWM(1x), EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), AMZN,
Transition to Market Negative:  none
Market Negative: -8
Wait: GOOG, ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), AAPL, IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), GS
Comment: Somewhat Bullish overall, Bullish Oil, Bullish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possible sell of TZA, possible buy of TNA
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA had a Wait signal, was up a lot today, and has a highly reliable BUY-IF for tomorrow. The TNA sell was at $69.05 (AB price), and the close today was at $69.53, up 0.7% since the sell. The candlestick today was a Long White Candlestick (strong buying pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bullish Kicking Pattern.
TZA had a Hold signal, was down a lot today, and now has a highly reliable SELL-IF signal for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.44, down 10 cents since the buy. The candlestick for today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bearish Kicking Pattern.
Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
Buy at $5.54, down 1.8%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until the last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, sell at $69.10, up 22.3%
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +8
Hold: GLD(gold, up 2.2%), EWU(England, down 4.1%), SLV(silver, up 7.0%), UCO (2x oil)
New Confirmed Buy: QQQQ, DIA, SPY, USO(oil)
Transition to Market Positive:  +6
Possible Buy: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), IWM(1x), EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), AMZN,
Transition to Market Negative:  none
Market Negative: -8
Wait: GOOG, ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), AAPL, IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), GS
Comment: Somewhat Bullish overall, Bullish Oil, Bullish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possible sell of TZA, possible buy of TNA
TZA opened down 2.2%. TZA was down 0.3% at the high, and closed down 6.3%.
A gap from $5.82 to $5.80 remains unfilled.
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold signal for today. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed at $5.45, so this trade is now down 1.6%
Volume for TZA today was average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 8.3% with TZA down 6.3%. No divergence.
TZA was down four days then up two, and now down two. Bad for TZA.
The low for TZA was from two days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.44, 2.6% higher.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator fell from 37 to 35 while TZA closed down 6.3%, no divergence technically, but the reading of 35 held up very well considering how far TZA fell. Seems like a bit of a divergence. Bad for TZA, but might be positive at some point.
MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up a bit, but no rise today. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday’s long black candle closed below the upper Bollinger band after two closes above it. MACD is aggressively rising. Seems to be working towards a $RVX sell signal. I need to research this.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle moved towards the upper Bollinger Band, which is flat. Looks like the possible resumption of the up trend. MACD rolled over (down) yesterday, but seems to be recovering. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): the black candle of 2 days ago was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band (This last happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days) and today closed well above it. I need to research this.
TZA had a lower high, much lower low and much lower close – Bad for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 685 million flowing out of the market on a big down day 2 days ago.
$ 1,404 million flowing out of the market today on a down day yesterday.
$ 1,276 million flowing into the market today on an up day.
Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TZA.
Carl at day’s end:
1192-1205 estimate for today (13 points)
1195.75–1206.25 actual today (10.50 points)
Close enough.
Trades:
In /ES at 1197.25 & 1201.50 – did not sell. Currently 1205
Grade: B (looks like money gets made tomorrow)
Here is a nice clue. Notice the huge gap on the today-yesterday VIX? Looks like it needs to close the gap on this one and soon. Looks like a revisit to the down side soon.
APPL closed the gap today as well
I guess filling those gaps what the market what's too do first. Let's see if they get them all filled today. I still think this is a fake out, and we will have more selling coming.
FTSE is underperforming the SPY today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#chart1…
It's clearly not participating in the rest of markets' rally. The market seems so quiet now, and the blogsphere seems dead. It's like all the bears are asleep now.
Kinda like being in the eye of a storm…