Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Going Down…

Bear-going-down-in-elevator

What a beautiful day it was in the stock market, as reality finally slaps some sense into it.  When bulls finally run out crack, they sure do come down hard!  It was certainly long overdue, I'm I glad to see it happen.  It gives us option traders the volatility that we need to make some decent money trading them.

Not that it can't be done in a up market, but it's harder to do as the time decay kills you, due to the market moving up so slowly.  The down moves are fast and furious, but don't last long enough to make me happy.

Anyway, I'm looking for a small bounce tomorrow to get short again, as I closed out my put spread today around the first low of the day.  I missed out on a little more money, as it continued lower into the close.  But, nothing goes straight down... because "Down" is a bad word in the stock market, and "UP" is all that's allowed to move continuously without dipping.  (Not really, but it's sure seems like that).

Moving on...

Let's just focus on the key support levels for now, so we know about when to bail out on our short positions.  Tomorrow is tough day to call.  The best thing to expect is a "pause" day, meaning that after a large sell off, there is usually a day that the market goes sideways, to slightly up or down.  That's what I expect for tomorrow, but it's not a guarantee as it could continue selling hard.  (The futures are about flat now, so that tells me a bounce is more likely).

Assuming there is a bounce tomorrow, I plan to use it to take another position on the short side, as I don't trust any long trades at this time.  That's because I don't think we have sold off far enough to get a several day bounce in the market yet.  (Day trading is different of course, but I only swing trade).

So, the support levels going down are at 117.50 spy (horizontal support line), 116.25 (50 dma), and 115.00 (horizontal support line).  I expect the several day bounce to come in at either 116.25 or 115.00 level.  If we make it down to that 115.00 (1115 spx) level, I would expect a decent bounce.

But, we might stop on the 50 dma around 116.25 currently.  We just have too take it one level at a time for now.  Let's not forget the fake print of 107.38 spy from last month, and the DOW 10,000 fake print Sundancer caught too, as that might be our final target, before a summer rally?

However, I don't know if we are headed down to that area first, and then a rally into the May option expiration, or a rally into opx from a higher level (then the fake prints), and then a sell off to the fake print areas after opx is over.

Time will tell I guess...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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newbear
newbear
14 years ago

Such a good day for bears and it's quiet everywhere, what's going on?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Bears are out getting drunk and throwing bear bottles at the bulls probably…

Al
Al
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hahaha…that is what i gona do. hope this not a one day thing…

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Al

You guys are bad… Ha Ha!

I'm actually just playing around on the computer, looking a different wordpress themes. I'm thinking about changing Anna's for her… to give HOB a new look.

Plus, I'm looking for one's for this site too. I'll have to custom edit the graphic's and all, but I did it with both sites the first time, so I can do it again.

Just something to occupy my time I guess…

Baby Dragon
Baby Dragon
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

red want to make some cash….
buy the dips man….

It is a super trap for bears….
Think of it
Not even 200 MA is broken. it is just one day of 200+ point crash.

There is no heart or guts left in bears to short anymore…

I am a bear by heart with trailing stops on action.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Red – I don't think I will be here today. If you want to short then do it today at SPX 1189 (if it gets there) and get out (today) at 1165 SPX (tomorrow should be up). The next few days after today should be chop with a downward move starting again next week. This is coming from someone who has been right on the money (not me).

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1174 – 1189. A swing to 1270 should begin from a low near 1175 today or tomorrow.

1177.50–1208 actual yesterday (30.50 points)
1176.75 low last night
1174-1189 estimate for today (15 points)

1188 currently, so estimate is -14 to +1 from here (Very Bearish)

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

I wish I could trade this I would make a fortune.
Looks like a setup for more down side tomorrow?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

You mean upside, right?

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

downside on equities

AAPL looks like it wants to fill the huge gap. That would correlate well with the spy at 117 which is my target. If it does hit 117 I'm going long til opex. I expect the greece decision to be over the weekend. Monday it should rally hard.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

Just looking at the charts — the days with those big down spikes seem to be followed by one day with downside, then the market goes up. Small sample size — just what's on your chart.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

I'm looking at appl to give me clues. Iy looks like it wants to fill the gap for it to go higher

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

Now GS needs to fill the gap too

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gs

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

too many people are over complicating the current market dynamics

the market just finished a uni-directional 80 CD thrust & people are already looking for a bottom 2 days later

the hardest thing to do is nothing!!!!!!!

don't let the simplicity of this game complex your mind!!!!!!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

It is the scared bear syndrome. 😀

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Bingo! We have a winner!!!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Discretionary trading is extremely hard. Yet that is what most of the non-pros use. You don't find that many truly successful pros use discretionary trading. That is for good reason.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Sundancer the “fake print” of 117.61 that you saw awhile ago. Do you expect to hit it during regular trading hours? What about ES which is traded 24 hours. Do you keep track of that as well? What if AH we get a hit of 117.61 but not during the day. Have you thought of that possibility

SC
SC
14 years ago

Looking for a low sometime in the first week of May. If you have May puts, that would be your last get out of jail chance. If not, you should prepare your Puts for the afterlife. lol

I may pick up May Calls at around that time.

midasportugal
midasportugal
14 years ago

NASDAQ100 1950 HERE WE GO.

http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl at day’s end:

1174-1189 estimate for today (15 points)
1178–1192 actual today (14 points)
Carl was a bit high on the top & bottom. Didn’t anticipate the news event (Spain downgrade).

Trade: No trades today.
Grade: C (made no money)

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Red check this out. Did this hit your fake print?

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/ES/60

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

What fake print? The last one I seen was about a month ago. I haven't seen one since then.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

TZA opened down 1.8%. TZA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 0.5%.

We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold signal for today. TZA bought yesterday at $5.54. TZA closed at $5.82, so this trade is now up 5.0%

Volume for TZA today was average.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up yesterday 16.5%, and closed down 0.8% today with TZA down 0.5%. No divergence. Good for TZA.

TZA was down four days then up two, and now down today. Bad for TZA.

The low for TZA was from two days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.70, 7.5% higher. Good for TZA.

Today, Ultimate Oscillator rose from 36 to 37 which TZA closed down 0.5%, a mild divergence. Good for TZA.

MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday’s very very long white candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger band. Today’s smaller candle was entirely above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. $RVX seems hard to read here. Neutral for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s doji candle stayed near yesterday’s close, again far and away from the upper Bollinger Band, and looks like the beginning of a trend down. MACD rolled over (down) today. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): yesterday’s black candle was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band (This last happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell (generally) for 9 days). Today’s tiny candle closed right at the bottom Bollinger Band. Good for TZA.

TZA had a higher high, much higher low and lower close – Good for TZA.

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 17 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 685 million flowing out of the market yesterday on a big down day.
$ 1,404 million flowing out of the market today on a down day.
Good for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, it looks good for TZA.

Al
Al
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Thanks Earl, it is quiet here today.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Al

It's quiet everywhere Al… Must be the calm before the storm.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA had a Wait signal, was up a bit today, and has a Wait for tomorrow. The TNA sell was at $69.05 (AB price), and the close today was at $65.45, down 5.2% since the sell.

TZA had a Hold signal, was down a bit today, and has a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.81, up 4.8% since the buy.

Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
Buy at $5.54, up 4.8%

For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until the last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, sell at $69.10, up 22.3%

Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +1
Hold: GLD(gold, up 2.2%), EWU(England, down 5.3%), SLV(silver, up 4.7%),

Transition to Market Positive:  -5
Possible buy: GOOG, QQQQ, DIA, SPY, USO(oil),

Transition to Market Negative:  +1
Possible sell: UCO (2x oil),

Market Negative:  -13
Wait: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), IWM(1x), AAPL, EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), AMZN, GS

Comment: Very Bearish overall, Neutral Oil, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: none

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Any late night owls out there? If so, here's a funny joke for you all too laugh at…

The Riddle

Barack Obama met with the Queen of England. He asked her, “Your Majesty, how do you run such an efficient government? Are there any tips you can give to me?”

“Well,” said the Queen, “the most important thing is to surround yourself with intelligent people.”

Obama frowned, and then asked, “But how do I know the people around me are really intelligent?”

The Queen took a sip of tea. “Oh, that's easy; you just ask them to answer an intelligent riddle.” The Queen pushed a button on her intercom. “Please send Tony Blair in here, would you?”

Tony Blair walked into the room and said, “Yes, my Queen?”

The Queen smiled and said, “Answer me this please, Tony. Your mother and father have a child. It is not your brother and it is not your sister. Who is it?”

Without pausing for a moment, Tony Blair answered, “That would be me.”

“Yes! Very good,” said the Queen.

Obama went back home to ask Joe Biden, his vice president, the same question. “Joe, answer this for me. Your mother and your father have a child. It's not your brother and it's not your sister. Who is it?”

“I'm not sure,” said Biden. “Let me get back to you on that one…” He went to his advisers and asked every one, but none could give him an answer. Finally, he ended up in the men's room and recognized Colin Powell's shoes in the next stall.

Biden asked Powell, “Colin, can you answer this for me? Your mother and father have a child and it's not your brother or your sister. Who is it?”

Colin Powell yelled back, “That's easy, it's me!”

Biden smiled, and said, “Thanks!” Then, he went back to speak with Obama. “Say, I did some research and I have the answer to that riddle. It is Colin Powell!”

Obama got up, stomped over to Biden, and angrily yelled into his face, “No! You idiot! It's Tony Blair!”

AND THAT MY FRIENDS IS WHAT'S WRONG WITH OUR GOVERNMENT.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Any late night owls out there? If so, here's a funny joke for you all too laugh at…

The Riddle

Barack Obama met with the Queen of England. He asked her, “Your Majesty, how do you run such an efficient government? Are there any tips you can give to me?”

“Well,” said the Queen, “the most important thing is to surround yourself with intelligent people.”

Obama frowned, and then asked, “But how do I know the people around me are really intelligent?”

The Queen took a sip of tea. “Oh, that's easy; you just ask them to answer an intelligent riddle.” The Queen pushed a button on her intercom. “Please send Tony Blair in here, would you?”

Tony Blair walked into the room and said, “Yes, my Queen?”

The Queen smiled and said, “Answer me this please, Tony. Your mother and father have a child. It is not your brother and it is not your sister. Who is it?”

Without pausing for a moment, Tony Blair answered, “That would be me.”

“Yes! Very good,” said the Queen.

Obama went back home to ask Joe Biden, his vice president, the same question. “Joe, answer this for me. Your mother and your father have a child. It's not your brother and it's not your sister. Who is it?”

“I'm not sure,” said Biden. “Let me get back to you on that one…” He went to his advisers and asked every one, but none could give him an answer. Finally, he ended up in the men's room and recognized Colin Powell's shoes in the next stall.

Biden asked Powell, “Colin, can you answer this for me? Your mother and father have a child and it's not your brother or your sister. Who is it?”

Colin Powell yelled back, “That's easy, it's me!”

Biden smiled, and said, “Thanks!” Then, he went back to speak with Obama. “Say, I did some research and I have the answer to that riddle. It is Colin Powell!”

Obama got up, stomped over to Biden, and angrily yelled into his face, “No! You idiot! It's Tony Blair!”

AND THAT MY FRIENDS IS WHAT'S WRONG WITH OUR GOVERNMENT.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA had a Wait signal, was up a bit today, and has a Wait for tomorrow. The TNA sell was at $69.05 (AB price), and the close today was at $65.45, down 5.2% since the sell.

TZA had a Hold signal, was down a bit today, and has a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.81, up 4.8% since the buy.

Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
Buy at $5.54, up 4.8%

For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until the last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, sell at $69.10, up 22.3%

Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +1
Hold: GLD(gold, up 2.2%), EWU(England, down 5.3%), SLV(silver, up 4.7%),

Transition to Market Positive:  -5
Possible buy: GOOG, QQQQ, DIA, SPY, USO(oil),

Transition to Market Negative:  +1
Possible sell: UCO (2x oil),

Market Negative:  -13
Wait: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), IWM(1x), AAPL, EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), AMZN, GS

Comment: Very Bearish overall, Neutral Oil, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: none

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

TZA opened down 1.8%. TZA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 0.5%.

We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold signal for today. TZA bought yesterday at $5.54. TZA closed at $5.82, so this trade is now up 5.0%

Volume for TZA today was average.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up yesterday 16.5%, and closed down 0.8% today with TZA down 0.5%. No divergence. Good for TZA.

TZA was down four days then up two, and now down today. Bad for TZA.

The low for TZA was from two days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.70, 7.5% higher. Good for TZA.

Today, Ultimate Oscillator rose from 36 to 37 which TZA closed down 0.5%, a mild divergence. Good for TZA.

MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday’s very very long white candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger band. Today’s smaller candle was entirely above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. $RVX seems hard to read here. Neutral for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s doji candle stayed near yesterday’s close, again far and away from the upper Bollinger Band, and looks like the beginning of a trend down. MACD rolled over (down) today. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): yesterday’s black candle was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band (This last happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell (generally) for 9 days). Today’s tiny candle closed right at the bottom Bollinger Band. Good for TZA.

TZA had a higher high, much higher low and lower close – Good for TZA.

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 17 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 685 million flowing out of the market yesterday on a big down day.
$ 1,404 million flowing out of the market today on a down day.
Good for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, it looks good for TZA.

Al
Al
14 years ago

Thanks Earl, it is quiet here today.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

It's quiet everywhere Al… Must be the calm before the storm.

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