Sunday, May 26, 2024

What Happened To Bullish Monday?

the-end-is-near

It seems that "The End Is Near" now, as the usual Bullish Monday failed for the first time still the stone age was around... or it least it seems like it's been going on for that long.  Seeing a down day, (even if it is only a few points), on Monday is so rare that I can't believe it actually happened today.

Not that it means anything of value, as the trend UP is still intact.  No damage has been done to the Bullish Charge, that's been going on since February the 5th, 2010.  So, I'm not expecting any large down move tomorrow... so don't get all excited on me.

Yes, yes... it's a POSSIBLE end to the UP trend, but only slightly possible.  We Bears should know by now that this is most likely just a small tease, and not the start of the correction we have been waiting for.  However, it could be the top, but I really doubt it.

They are so close too reaching the 61.8% fib. level around 1228 SPX, that I don't expect big sell off until they hit the target they are looking for.  They told us with the fake print of 118.16 DIA (about 11,816 DOW, and I'd estimate 1270-1280 SPX) several weeks ago.  I thought that we would go down to the other fake print at 107.38 SPY (also DOW 10,000) first, but it looks like they are going up first.

The markets seem to be getting more and more boring everyday as the VIX settles into a low range, making trading options about worthless.  Without some volatility, it's hard too trade them the way I like too do.  Still good for day traders of course, but that's just not my cup of tea.

Anyway, at this point, I'm not expecting any large down move tomorrow.  It's looking like it might sell off some, but only based on what the 60 minute chart shows.  It might only sell some in the morning, and rally back on light volume in the afternoon, as it always does.  So I guess we can expect more of the same, until the dam finally breaks.

Yawning now...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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SC
SC
14 years ago

After reviewing additional data, the revised estimated market top is early Dec 2010. The correction projected to occur in the Summer, is unlikely to be THE top. The top will most likely come in Dec 2010. And the aftermath will be a trail of tears and broken dreams for years to come.

The current market condition is similar to that in the eve of 1929, 1973, 1987, 2007. THat kind of makes things sucky. Because the market price momentum, the breadth momentum, the volume momentum etc are all supporting a historical pattern of no decline exceeding 10%, yet the extreme over valuation, extreme bullish sentiment, extreme overbought condition, with rising yield pressure, and the mother of all macro economy mismanagement, we have on our hand a perfect shit storm.

This perfect storm is too treacherous to chart a course and set it on auto pilot. That means no long term bets. We need to navigate this on short term basis and hope that we survive this.

All short term trend indicators are positive. But we are very extended. So a pullback is in the card. My VST tools should pick up the trend change. I have my May 119-108 put spreads as lottery play and a hedge for the longs I have in some biomedical stocks that I have fallen in love with. Barring unforseen external events such as the Middle East war, or Red's stargate at the sea bottom, south of Yemen opens up (LOL), I plan to load up on super high growth stocks after the overbought conditions reset (via a pullback in the market) and have one last rocket ride to the moon before packing it in before Xmas.

Cavaet: Everything subjected to revision upon new development, or the effect of Cognac wears off…whichever comes first.

P.S. My recent forecast has been wrong and the reasons sorted out and correction made. I shall try not to make the same mistake twice. The ghost in this business is the tendency to overrule your own work in favour of those from people you hold in high esteem. To be successful, we need to exsocise our ghost.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

LOL…

You haven't been any more wrong in your forecast then I have… so welcome to the club!

As for December, that would certainly allow Obama to try and help out his fellow Democrats with the elections in November. So, it's entirely possible that we could just churn higher, and sideways until then.

However, I think it will turn down in late September, early October. Nothing too serious, but a wave one down, and a smaller wave two back up just before the elections. Then the shit storm hits the fan after that.

For tomorrow… who knows? Heads they win, tails I lose!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

….tomorrow the market will go down. if the market goes up instead, then it will go down sometime in the future…..

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Boys and girls, this is the way to make forecast. You are always right. hehe

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Edit for typo: The put spread is May 119/118, not 119/108.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

I really don't have a time bias for the top, however numbers will often point you in the correct direction.

$SPX is currently up 82.94% in 14 months
During the 02-07' mkt, it took the $SPX 50 months to go up 82.94%.

That's a serious compression in time, if we continue to follow the same compression the top will be in the first part of July.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

Weekly setups:
the $DJI is in the top 1 percentile for a weekly close below it's open of 11,205.11

*IF* no higher highs this week, then the $SPX is in the top 15 percentile for a weekly close near it's lows.

Last week $VIX had it's 2nd consecutive weekly close above it's TL that had been suffocating it since 12/08'. Higher highs are coming on the $VIX (above 19.70)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45570

Did anybody else notice yesterday closing $SPX number of 1,212?
Why are the operators drawing your attention to the boiling pt. of 212?
Pi : Sun Ritual (666/Pi = 212)

In the next 21.2 months the capital markets will reach their boiling pt. co-relational to the macro reaching it's boiling pt. during 2012.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

there's the higher high on the $VIX

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I just sold my VIX calls. Hanging onto my SPY puts with an order to sell 1/3 of them soon.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

good trade!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Well that move in the VIX happened faster than i thought it would! Unfortunately, my calls don't move up at the same pace.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

That's why I never trade VIX calls. Great idea in principle, sucks in reality.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Interesting comments this morning. Thanks guys! Still kicking.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

i have 1 family member that was born on 4.28 & one good friend that was born on 4.29

What's your due date?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Due date is 5/1 but all signs are ago that it will be before then. Are your family and friend normal?! 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL! Now that's funny!

What is “Normal” anyway Monica? … The Blue Pill takers?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I guess I should have said nice! Nice is better than normal and I don't know anyone normal.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL! Too Funny!

By the way, what is “Normal” anyway? … The Blue Pill takers?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

the one that was born on 4.28 is extremely successful in the business world (4.28 = 2.4.8 sequence)

the one that was born on 4.29 is really nice & fun to be around

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

OK great! I'll take either of those.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Hmmm? A RED pre-market… I think I've seen a albino tiger.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I just can't decide whether to cover at 1195 or so or let it ride. We are due for a bigger correction based on Sundancer's calendar day limit but the problem with the options is the time decay. I did buy more 122 puts at the high yesterday. Probably should cover half.

jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

Hi Red
Missing a march debacle was disappointing
BUt Im looking for a REPEAT of April 2000 within the next 10days
May 4th to 6th has a harmonic energy cluster that should see what is commonly called a CLIMACTIC ending when you get 3 severe down days in a row
From that, the mkt should regain legs from such NEGATIVE sentiment to continue its journey back UP till Mid june and or Mid july
Again, take a look at y2k for similarities to 2010
and 2001 = 2011
then 2012 = 2002
Jay

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jaywiz10534

Thanks for the update Jay…

I sure hope you are right. I'm growing more and more gray hairs everyday, waiting on the “correction”… but it seems to defy logic, and gravity too!

I hope you got you troll problem under control on your site. I've been pretty lucky not to have any real issue with them. I know it sucks when you work so hard every day, just to help people out… and then they bad mouth you!

I guess they think you are perfect, and will get every call correct… and that you will give them those calls for FREE! LOL! If I was that good, I'd damn sure be charging for the information.

Anyway, nice to hear your thoughts and forecasts.

Red

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1198 – 1210. A swing to 1270 is now underway.

1207.50–1216.50 actual yesterday (9 points)
1200.75 low last night
1198-1210 estimate for today (12 points)
1205 currently, so estimate is -7 to +5 from here (neutral)

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

We shall see Carl – looks to me like we have a bigger move down.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

what's the media using as an excuse for this harvest of speculative capital?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

What's the odds of this move continuing down, and closing lower by the end of the week? The reason I ask is because my put spread is about even now, and I'm thinking of closing it, but if we continue falling throughout the week, I'm staying short.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Think we still have a lot more downside but cover some just in case.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

kaching! Nice trade!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Dow Drops Over 100 After Portugal Downgrade

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Wow! I'm the best “contrarian” indicator there is… All I had too do, to get this market to sell off, was give up!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yeah lets make more bullish posts. LOL

dreadwin
14 years ago

Bought DRV yesterday at 6.65. Sold 1/2 at 6.93.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

kaching! Nice trade!

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Thanks! I'm hoping to hop back in to DRV when $SPX retraces to 1200 or so.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I think a retest of 1200 is likely too Dread, and I plan on shorting at that point too. I'm not sure if it will reach that level today or tomorrow, but I hope today.

The fed's speak tomorrow at 2:15 for the rate decision. Not that I think they will raise rates, but “what” they say might be the reason for more selling.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Sold the rest at 7.01. Still bearish, but can't watch the position closely for the rest of the day. Decided to take some gains. +5% ish.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

$SPX % setup
1219.8 = 16.78%
16.78/4.56 = -3.679% (1174.93)
OR
16.78/1.245= -13.47% (1055.5)

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Seen anymore fake prints? That 1174.93 level matches up with the 50ma (on daily chart) of the SPY, coming in around 117.50-117.70 area… which is also a horizontal support level too.

That would be a good bounce place certain, and could end the down completely, or just a bounce before a further decline happens.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

when was the fake print?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

I didn't see anymore fake prints. I was asking if Sundancer has seen anymore. So far, we only have the 10,000 Dow print that Sun caught, and the 107.38 spy I caught.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

the SPY 119.12 de-lever tick from 4.22 gave us our first reaction
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45583

there is a SPY 117.61 tick from the week of 4.12.2010

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

If we hit it. I will buy bigtime. My indicator tells me 118-117.5 as the buy. You're info is a nice confirmation.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thank you.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

2007 uni-directional thrust ended @ 81 CD
This uni-directional thrust ended @ 80 CD
2007 counter-move came @ 3.75 mult.
16.78%/3.75 = -4.74% (1162)

The $SPX daily consecutive close sequence will give clues as to what mult. may stop the counter-move.

Diablos
Diablos
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Hi Sundancer,

If u don't mind, where does 4.56 and 1.245 come from?

Thanks in advance

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

I posted this a couple weeks ago, this will answer your question

if you look back @ the $SPX before it's 2007 terminal high
the final reaction turned out to be a 1.18 mult.
upthrust = 14.07% : 11.9% downthrust = 1.18 co-relational to our last 2 reactions of 1.22 & 1.27

whenever the $SPX stops it's reaction will either be extremely shallow or extremely deep
#1
$SPX 3.6.2009 : 6.11.2009 = 43.41%
$SPX 6.11.2009: 7.8.2009 = -9.09%
43.41/9.09 = 4.77
#2
$SPX 7.8.2009 : 9.23.2009 = 24.25%
$SPX 9.23.2009: 10.2.2009 = -5.57%
24.25/5.57 = 4.35

AVG. of 4.77 : 4.35 = 4.56
#3
$SPX 10.2.2009 : $SPX 10.21.2009 = 7.98%
$SPX 10.21.2009: $SPX 11.2.2009 = -6.54%
7.98/6.54 = 1.22
#4
$SPX 11.2.2009 : 1.19.2009 = 11.76%
$SPX 1.19.2009 : 2.5.2010 = -9.21%
11.76/9.21 = 1.27

AVG of 1.22 : 1.27 = 1.245

Current high on $SPX = 16.22%
16.22/4.56(AVG of 1:2 reaction) = 3.55% (1170.92)
16.22/1.245(AVG of 3:4 reaction)= 13.02%(1055.92)

SC
SC
14 years ago

I should make more predictions. After I said any decline should not exceed 10%, the market started with an opening salvo of -1.75% and going! Yay! “IN YOUR FACE, dude!”

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

Nice action today. Gap filled on the qqqq, spy and spx. No reactionary play to fill the gap in the coming days. We may pop up abit tomorrow but it should resume a few more down days IMO

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

$VIX de-leverage pt. = 24.63

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Was that a fake print, or just the area you charted?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

this is it's de-leverage pt. originating from it's 2.5.2010 high

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

this is beautiful to watch speculative capital get harvested!!!!!!!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

At this point, I know if there will even be a bounce tomorrow morning?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

speculative capital is lined up 100 wide with the exit door being single file

all those suckers that thought 4.19 low ended the “reaction” are ignorant of basic mathematics

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl at day’s end:

1198-1210 estimate for today (12 points)

1177.50–1208 actual today (30.50 points)
Carl did ok on the high, missed the low. Didn’t anticipate the news event.

Trade: No trades today.
Grade: C (made no money)

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

hip hip hooray is all I have to say! Finally! Sold 3/4 of my SPY 119 puts but still have all of my 122 puts.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

here was the setup that gave the $SPX the powerful move into the close
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45581

yellow containment held $SPX during 4.22 low, backtest of yellow containment & the subsequent flush

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Well, I panicked and sold my put spread early, at the first low of the day. I'll be looking to get back in on a bounce… if we have one tomorrow?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

the 195 min setup is getting real close to a long setup

$SPX currently has 4 consecutive lower closes than opens on the 195 min

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I was thinking we might go up to 1185-1186 tomorrow, and then fall on down to that 1175 area… at which point, that should match up with your 195 min long setup. Am I figuring that out correctly?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

pretty close
*IF* the $VIX prints 24.63 & $SPX gets in the 1175 area I would definitely lighten up highly levered short positions

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

Volume off the top on the IWM
5 mil short of it's 2.5.2010 low
trumped 4.16 volume

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

When we hit that 1175 area, and get our bounce, do you think you will be able to tell if it's the end of the correction… in which case we go higher into the summer months, or only a bounce and a continued move down is likely?

I just see so many more open interest contracts on the May Puts, that I find it unlikely that they will want to pay out on all of them.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

the time element may help us here

the shortest downward thrust of the current bull was 9 CD
the longest downward thrust of the current bull was 27 CD

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Think we will have a similar scenario to the last drop in Jan. Maybe that will get us to the fake print in 2 weeks (around 1080)?! And then we can go back up to the 11816 number which should take a while. I am not getting long for a while.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Going to cover the rest of my shorts tomorrow. Red, I believe it will be another down day but Thursday you will probably get an opportunity to short again.

midasportugal
midasportugal
14 years ago

Supports breaking all over the place, has i told yesterday. Now i am looking also @ some forex crosses, namely shorting AUD against some other currency, maybe usd maybe jpy. I will update the crosses when i enter the trade in the next few days. I updated the index charts from yesterday. Hey Ho Let´s Go.

http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/

And btw please click on follow blog 🙂 i would like having you follow my work. Thanks.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  midasportugal

Well, I can't read Spanish, but I think I'm now following you? I just guessed at the buttons and text.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, if he is from Portugal, that would Portuguese!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Sorry, my mistake…. I should have figured that out by the name. But, I can't read Portuguese either.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

$DJI closed right on brown containment that has been holding it since 4.12.2010, could get rather interesting should the brown containment fail
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45582

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Well, at least that gives me a little hope that it will bounce from it tomorrow, and give me a chance to go short again.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

What is the price tarhet of the blue line?
I need one more down day… just one more come on.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

Exactly what I was about to ask bear/bull!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I just watched those 2 video's Monica and they explain it well. If you haven't seen them, you should watch them. That why I mentioned many weeks back that you should always short the 2x/3x Bull/Bear funds, and never go long.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yep – I watched them as well. Red, look at the downward move that started on 1/19/2010. Pretend today was 1/21/2010. Perhaps we will have similar movement for the next two weeks as we did then. That would probably take us to the 1080 level.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Maybe? I just hope we get a bounce tomorrow, so I can get back in.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Good reasons for a bounce tomorrow:

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/04/04

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

here is another view

Bullish for tomorrow

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV

IMO it should be short lived

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

blue is mid 10,800's
red is mid 10,700's

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Alright, I cover tomorrow at 10867 (if we get there) and then reload later in the week.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

thanks

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

Important and interesting video.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

Thanks Bear Bull. It is interesting but Earl of might be able to shed more light on the how the leveraged ETFs work. He has a really good understanding of them.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Monica,

My standard pitch: People who want to trade the 3x ETF's should trade them carefully, as the price on them changes constantly 🙂

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

TZA opened down 1.2%. TZA was up 7.5% at the high, and closed up 6.9%.

We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA. We had switched to TNA, as it was going up, and TZA was not. However, as of this moment, TZA came back to life, so we are back to TZA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a SELL-IF signal for today, and TNA sold this morning at $69.10 (opening price on a gap down). The TNA buy was at $69.05, so the TNA trade was up 5 cents at the end. AmericanBulls had TZA with a BUY-IF signal for today, and TZA bought this morning at $5.54 (opening price on a gap up). TZA closed at $5.85, so this trade is now up 5.6%

Volume for TZA today was 2nd highest in the past 55 days.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 16.5% with TZA up 5.6%. No divergence. Good for TZA.

TZA was down four days then up one, and now up again today. Good for TZA.

The low for TZA was from yesterday at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.39, 1.7% higher. Good for TZA.

Two days ago, when TZA fell 3%, Ultimate Oscillator rose from 22.9 to 24.2, a divergence. The next day (yesterday), the divergence played out with TZA up, and today it was up 5.6%. Today, TZA rose and reading went from 28 to 36. Good for TZA.

MACD on the monthly chart has been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days now, with a slight uptick today. Neutral for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s very very long white candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger band. MACD is aggressively rising. $RVX seems likely to fall tomorrow. Bad for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long black candle is away from the upper Bollinger Band, and looks like the beginning of a trend down. MACD might roll over (down) tomorrow. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band. This last happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell (generally) for 9 days. Good for TZA.

TZA had a much higher high, higher low and much higher close – Good for TZA.

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$2,305 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 17 million flowing into the market today on a down day yesterday.
$ 685 million flowing out of the market today on a big down day.
Good for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, it looks good for TZA.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

oh the operators make me laugh
yesterday they closed the S&P @ 1,212

today QQQQ -2.12%

yep the boiling pt. is getting near……..

Pi : Sun Ritual (666/Pi = 212)

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I really have a feeling that we are going to the lower target of 1060-1080 area, and not just 1175.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

this chart of AAPL may hold some clues, it hit it's speculative capital ENV last week
the last time AAPL hit the speculative capital mania ENV was during the 10.19.2009 week
we know what happened after that
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45590

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

More downside to come but limited thats for sure. WE are going to new highs in the next couple of weeks…. before opex may. imo

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

You know what… I'm very much in agreement with you on that. I remember that last sell off to 1044.50, and how they pushed the market up every day into the option expiration date.

I expect the same thing to happen here, as there are a whole lot more put contracts on the SPY, then call contract. I know that they won't pay out all that money. So at some point, I expect a run up into OPX.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The Greece and Portugal situation is pure BS. IMO There are so many analysts on wall street you don't think they would have figured that out weeks ago. and today its a big surprise??? LOL shaking the tree IMO

C C Rider
C C Rider
14 years ago

Anyone ever played FSLR on an earning's play? I was leaning bearish, but am now bullish. I'm looking at May 140 call options. My obvious concern is IV crush. Earnings are after close tomorrow.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

I recall looking at it in February. The IV crush was so bad that only in-the-money-puts were able to take advantage of the big plunge. Haven't taken a look at it since.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

Hey C C…

As Dreadwin mentioned, the IV crush will kill the value of the call. The only way I play options anymore is by doing a spread. It neutralizes the IV that way, as both the call you sold and bought both lose value together.

So, when you go to buy back the call you sold, it will be much cheaper… assuming the stock price went in the direction you wanted it too.

Hope that helps…

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA had a SELL-IF signal, was down today, sold at the open, and has a Wait for tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50, and the sell was at the opening price of $69.10, up 22.3% since the buy.

TZA had a BUY-IF dignal, was up today, bought at the open, and has a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.85, up 5.6% since the buy.

Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
Buy at $5.54, up 5.6%

For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until the last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, sell at $69.10, up 22.3%

Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +0
Hold: GLD(gold, up 2.5%), EWU(England, down 5.4%)

Transition to Market Positive:  -1
BUY-IF: GOOG

Transition to Market Negative:  +2
SELL-IF: UCO (2x oil), SLV(silver),

Market Negative:  -17
Wait: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), IWM(1x), QQQQ, AAPL, DIA, SPY, EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), AMZN, USO(oil), GS

Comment: Very Bearish overall, Bearish Oil, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: none

C C Rider
C C Rider
14 years ago

Thanks to both of you! The better play may be to short or long after the move. I'm looking at monthly BB squeezing and essentially a basing period for the last 18mos. I last saw this in AMZN before it moved from 80 to 140.

C C Rider
C C Rider
14 years ago

Thanks to both of you! The better play may be to short or long after the move. I'm looking at monthly BB squeezing and essentially a basing period for the last 18mos. I last saw this in AMZN before it moved from 80 to 140.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA had a SELL-IF signal, was down today, sold at the open, and has a Wait for tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50, and the sell was at the opening price of $69.10, up 22.3% since the buy.

TZA had a BUY-IF dignal, was up today, bought at the open, and has a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.85, up 5.6% since the buy.

Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
Buy at $5.54, up 5.6%

For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until the last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, sell at $69.10, up 22.3%

Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +0
Hold: GLD(gold, up 2.5%), EWU(England, down 5.4%)

Transition to Market Positive:  -1
BUY-IF: GOOG

Transition to Market Negative:  +2
SELL-IF: UCO (2x oil), SLV(silver),

Market Negative:  -17
Wait: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), IWM(1x), QQQQ, AAPL, DIA, SPY, EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), AMZN, USO(oil), GS

Comment: Very Bearish overall, Bearish Oil, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: none

C C Rider
C C Rider
14 years ago

Anyone ever played FSLR on an earning's play? I was leaning bearish, but am now bullish. I'm looking at May 140 call options. My obvious concern is IV crush. Earnings are after close tomorrow.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Hey C C…

As Dreadwin mentioned, the IV crush will kill the value of the call. The only way I play options anymore is by doing a spread. It neutralizes the IV that way, as both the call you sold and bought both lose value together.

So, when you go to buy back the call you sold, it will be much cheaper… assuming the stock price went in the direction you wanted it too.

Hope that helps…

dreadwin
14 years ago

I recall looking at it in February. The IV crush was so bad that only in-the-money-puts were able to take advantage of the big plunge. Haven't taken a look at it since.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

oh the operators make me laugh
yesterday they closed the S&P @ 1,212

today QQQQ -2.12%

yep the boiling pt. is getting near……..

Pi : Sun Ritual (666/Pi = 212)

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I really have a feeling that we are going to the lower target of 1060-1080 area, and not just 1175.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

More downside to come but limited thats for sure. WE are going to new highs in the next couple of weeks…. before opex may. imo

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

You know what… I'm very much in agreement with you on that. I remember that last sell off to 1044.50, and how they pushed the market up every day into the option expiration date.

I expect the same thing to happen here, as there are a whole lot more put contracts on the SPY, then call contract. I know that they won't pay out all that money. So at some point, I expect a run up into OPX.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

The Greece and Portugal situation is pure BS. IMO There are so many analysts on wall street you don't think they would have figured that out weeks ago. and today its a big surprise??? LOL shaking the tree IMO

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

this chart of AAPL may hold some clues, it hit it's speculative capital mania ENV last week
the last time AAPL hit the speculative capital mania ENV was during the 10.19.2009 week
we know what happened after that
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45590

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

TZA opened down 1.2%. TZA was up 7.5% at the high, and closed up 6.9%.

We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA. We had switched to TNA, as it was going up, and TZA was not. However, as of this moment, TZA came back to life, so we are back to TZA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a SELL-IF signal for today, and TNA sold this morning at $69.10 (opening price on a gap down). The TNA buy was at $69.05, so the TNA trade was up 5 cents at the end. AmericanBulls had TZA with a BUY-IF signal for today, and TZA bought this morning at $5.54 (opening price on a gap up). TZA closed at $5.85, so this trade is now up 5.6%

Volume for TZA today was 2nd highest in the past 55 days.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 16.5% with TZA up 5.6%. No divergence. Good for TZA.

TZA was down four days then up one, and now up again today. Good for TZA.

The low for TZA was from yesterday at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.39, 1.7% higher. Good for TZA.

Two days ago, when TZA fell 3%, Ultimate Oscillator rose from 22.9 to 24.2, a divergence. The next day (yesterday), the divergence played out with TZA up, and today it was up 5.6%. Today, TZA rose and reading went from 28 to 36. Good for TZA.

MACD on the monthly chart has been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days now, with a slight uptick today. Neutral for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s very very long white candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger band. MACD is aggressively rising. $RVX seems likely to fall tomorrow. Bad for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long black candle is away from the upper Bollinger Band, and looks like the beginning of a trend down. MACD might roll over (down) tomorrow. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band. This last happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell (generally) for 9 days. Good for TZA.

TZA had a much higher high, higher low and much higher close – Good for TZA.

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$2,305 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 17 million flowing into the market today on a down day yesterday.
$ 685 million flowing out of the market today on a big down day.
Good for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, it looks good for TZA.

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

Important and interesting video.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Thanks Bear Bull. It is interesting but Earl of might be able to shed more light on the how the leveraged ETFs work. He has a really good understanding of them.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Monica,

My standard pitch: People who want to trade the 3x ETF's should trade them carefully, as the price on them changes constantly 🙂

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

$DJI closed right on brown containment that has been holding it since 4.12.2010, could get rather interesting should brown containment fail
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45582

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

What is the price tarhet of the blue line?
I need one more down day… just one more come on.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

blue is mid 10,800's
red is mid 10,700's

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

thanks

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Alright, I cover tomorrow at 10867 (if we get there) and then reload later in the week.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Exactly what I was about to ask bear/bull!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I just watched those 2 video's Monica and they explain it well. If you haven't seen them, you should watch them. That why I mentioned many weeks back that you should always short the 2x/3x Bull/Bear funds, and never go long.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Yep – I watched them as well. Red, look at the downward move that started on 1/19/2010. Pretend today was 1/21/2010. Perhaps we will have similar movement for the next two weeks as we did then. That would probably take us to the 1080 level.

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