The Coming 2016 Stock Market Crash That Will Be Bigger Then 1929 Was


Date: September 20th, 2015

The recent mini-crash we had on August 24th, 2015, as forecasted in the movie Lucy on Scarlett Johansson's passport expiration date, and told here in the previous post 2 months before the event will be just a blip when compared to what is coming in 2016.

(to watch on youtube:

While I'm not positive on whether we have already topped already this year in 2015, or if we have one more slightly higher high coming in 2016, I will say with 100% confidence that we are in for another crash next year.

This coming week we have the Evil Reptilian Pope coming to visit the White House on September 22, 2015 ( which I can't see as anything positive.  This satan worshiping snake is surely making some kind of evil deal with our gangster run government leaders.  What it is, I don't know?  But it's clear to me that we are nearing the ending period for this stock market as when these people meet it's never good for us sheep.  I'm not saying we are going to crash right after he meets but it's coming soon thereafter... like within a few months.

Over in China we have their government banning shorting their stock market back in July of this year (, which spells disaster in my mind.  When you don't let traders short the market you don't have any bears to squeeze, and that means you don't have any way to rally a market up from a sell off except for tricking the sheep into buying, and that's probably not possible after you scare them with a big drop.

Next to the sheep buying you have the big institutions buying the sell off, but they aren't dumb either and won't buy it without seeing some trapped shorts to squeeze... which of course gets the market going up big time as they all have to cover at a loss.  This is exactly how over here in America our government has keep they market up as high as it's at now.  Without shorts in the market to squeeze you will go "no bid" and just crash... and that is precisely what's been happening in China.  And I don't think it's over with yet.  When America crashes next year China will go down again.

There's your clues in the news that tell you the stage is set to crash in 2016!

Looking at the technical picture we have the monthly chart now looking a lot like it did in 2000 and 2007 before it crashed the following year.  The rising channel lines drawn on that chart point to about the 1820 area for the lower rising blue trendline to be support if this month of September were to go down further.  So, we should expect that level to hold on a monthly close on it's first hit of that trendline.


With the current down trendline being labeled Primary Wave 4 down by Tony Caldaro I'll continue to refer to it that way as well since his Elliotwave count seems to be the most accurate I've found.  Not that I trade off of it on a day to day basis as I find it mostly helpful in seeing what's behind us and not too predictive for the futures due to it's many alternative wave counts.

However, on the bigger picture it's pretty good and looking forward.  Basically we started Primary Wave 1 up from the 666 SPX low in March of 2009 and ended that wave in May, 2011 at 1370 SPX.  Then Primary Wave 2 down happened into the 1074 low in October of 2011.  Following that we had the super long Primary Wave 3 up that ended in May of 2015 at 2135 SPX.  Currently we are in Primary Wave 4 down that should end around the first week of October, 2015.

Once it ends we will be starting Primary Wave 5 up, which should last 2-6 months, and may or may not make a new all time high.  If it does make a new high then I'd expect it to last closer to 6 months and top out just above 2200 SPX.  If it doesn't make a new high then I'd expect it to last closer to 2 months and would then be called a "truncated" Primary Wave 5... which is common and what I expect to happen.

Since I focus mostly on the technical analysis side of charting and not so much on the Elliotwave side I will say that from a TA side I don't see any new high coming and instead think we'll make a lower high on this Primary Wave 5 rally.  In fact, I would not be surprised if they don't have some tricky big squeeze up for the month of October, peaking in early November for this final wave up.

That would then end the entire 5 wave series since the 2009 low and start the next cycle of waves down, that should erase 50%-80% of the entire market over the next couple of years.  Should it only be 50% or so then we will likely stop and hold around the 1050-1100 SPX area where a rising trendline of support comes in at.  It started at the 1974 low of 62, then the 1982 low of 101 SPX and connects to the 2009 low of 666 SPX.  If that fails then we will find ourselves falling to another rising trendline from the 1929-1932 Stock Market crash low that connects to the 1942 low.  That rising trendline is pointing to the low 400's on the SPX right now.  Yeah, that's one scary low!

Of course we'll find support a the 2009 low of 666 first before it finally breaks and drops to the low 400's on the SPX, but that's too far out to predict right now.  We only know that the evil gangsters who run the world want to create their insane New World Order where we sheep are even bigger slaves (and much poorer) then we already all.  They want full control of every aspect of our lives, and crashing to the 1050-1100 SPX area doesn't seem too me to be deep enough to get the sheep into putting chips in their head or hands for the "Mark of the Beast" as foretold in the Bible.

But crashing to the low 400's on the SPX should would...

It would scare the sheep into giving up all their last freedoms to be saved from the severe poverty state that Satan's minions would put them into with a stock market wipeout like that!  Naturally I don't want to see that happen, but I can't control it... I can only warn people that it is possible.  It's possible from not only a charting point of view using technical analysis, but also from an "end times" model that we appear to be in right now... or at least those that rule the world think we are in.

Moving back to the short term I think we'll have a low in the market in the first week of October of this year.  It should be a lower low then the recent 1867 SPX low on August 24th, but I'm not expecting something crazy like 1700 or so... like many others are forecasting due to the Shemitah September 28th date and the Blood Moon that happens too.  I'm thinking in the low 1800 area for that bottom into early October.

Then we rally into mid to late October, topping out early November and dropping again the rest of that month with some bottom near the end of it and then the December Santa Claus rally starts until the first of 2016.

How low we go in November is not known yet?

Since Primary Wave 5 up should take 2-6 months I'd think we don't take out the expected Primary Wave 4 low around the low 1800's, but some massive squeeze up to 2100 SPX in October could change my mind?  I'd rather see some steady 3 wave (ABC) pattern up to 2100 by the end of this year instead, because that would line up more inside the 2-6 months window for Primary Wave 5 up.

Doing the entire move in one month (October) would be very unusual and should then lead to a drop in November well below 1800 with the 1700's being the target zone.  I personally don't think that will happen though, but I did want to point it out as "possible".  Just visit this blog post daily to see new updated comments to stay up to date.

What would make more sense to happen is some low in the 1800 area early October or late September.  Then start the A wave up for Primary Wave 5 up, that should top out mid to late October.  Then down early in November for the B wave down inside Primary Wave 5 up, which should of course make a "higher low" then the start of the A wave up.  Follow that by some C wave up in December to end the Primary Wave 5 up in early January, 2016 (or late December, 2015) that I think will hit 2100 area making a lower high then the Primary Wave 3 up all time high of 2135 in May of 2015.

While it's possible to make a new "higher high" for Primary Wave 5 up I just don't see it in the charts... from a technical point of view of course.  The only thing that would make me believe we could see a "higher high" for Primary Wave 5 up is for the month of September to close above 2000 SPX, and I just don't think that will happen with the next 2 weeks being so bearish as seen in this chart below.


We just had the Fed's big September FOMC meeting where everyone expected them to raise interest rates and they announced that they wouldn't be doing that just yet.  We sold off from that positive news, and that's not a good sign.  If there was anything that should have been used to rally the market up to above 2100 by the end of September it would have been that good news.

Instead they did the announcement in the middle of September knowing very ware that the market would sell off after the news and drop lower into the end of the month.  If they planned to extend this stock market higher into next year they would have made sure to give out some positive news near the end of this month to close it above it's 20 Month Moving Average... which is currently at 2000 SPX.

Here's a post done by Amateur Investor showing what happened in the past when the market makes 2 closes below the 20 Month MA.

Weekend Analysis


As I talked about last weekend there have only be "5" times since 1900 when the following conditions have been met.

1.  Dow or S&P Composite dropped 10% in 5 Days or less.
2.  Dow and S&P Composite were within 4 months of an "All Time High"
3.  Shiller PE was 20 or above
4.  The 20 Month Moving Average was tested.

Prior to the most recent event these conditions were met in January of 2008, April of 2000, August of 1998 and October of 1929.  This month will be pivotal for the S&P 500 depending on whether it closes a 2nd Month in a row below its 20 Month Moving Average or not.

Let's see what happened with the prior "4" events and the 20 Month Moving Average.  Starting with the last event in late 2007/early 2008 there were "2" monthly closes below the 20 Month MA in January and February of 2008.  In this case the S&P 500 rallied back to its 20 Month MA which was then followed by another significant drop (points A to B).

The next case was in 2000 as the S&P 500 closed below its 20 Month MA "2" months in a row in November and December.   Once again notice the S&P 500 rebounded back to its 20 Month MA before selling off again (points C to D).

Meanwhile in the Fall of 1998 notice the S&P 500 failed to close below its 20 Month MA in September and October although it did briefly drop below it two months in a row (point E).   This was then followed by another significant rally through the Spring of 1999 (points E to F).

Finally the last event was in the Fall of 1929 as the S&P closed below its 20 Month MA in October and November.  In this case the S&P rallied back to its 20 Month MA before another sharp sell off occurred (points F to G).

Currently the 20 Month MA in the S&P 500 is at 1999 sp this value won't change much over the next three weeks.  Thus this will be a key level to watch by the end of the month and may have significant implications for the market in the future depending on whether the S&P 500 closes above or below it.


Clearly you can see that odds are very low that we'll make a higher high with Primary Wave 5 up when you have 2 monthly closes below the 20 Month MA... which I think we'll see by the end of this month.

To summarize, I'm looking for this week and next week to go down to make a lower low (then the 1867 SPX August 24th low) to complete Primary Wave 4 down.  Then a rally into mid-late October for the first wave A up of Primary Wave 5... which should be somewhere in the 1950-2000 range I suspect.  After that we should see a B wave down (inside Primary Wave 5 up) to lure in some more bears and scare the bulls out.  This should NOT break the low of Primary Wave 4 down.  Possible targets are 1850-1900 area.  This should end in mid-late November.  Finally we should have a C wave up (inside Primary Wave 5 up) that I suspect will reach around 2100 by the end of this year.



    • By the way guys, I’m NOT suggesting a long here. This is more speculation on the move up to 1980 SPX. If wrong then we could barely move up and/or drop again tomorrow.

      Again, I don’t like to play wave 2’s, 4’s, and B’s. I just look for the sure thing C wave and 3 wave. Right now we completing some wave down that could be a 2, 4 or B… nothing I want to gamble on. Elliottwave is best used “after the fact” and not for predicting the next big move.

      Always use Technical Analysis first and fit the wave count into it… then you can see when a BIG move up or down is lining up. Right now I don’t see any BIG move up or down that is a “sure thing”. The only “sure thing” move was DOWN from last Thursday’s FOMC meeting. That was a 99%’er in my view. Now we are chopping around waiting for the next 90%’er plus to appear.

    • Right now they are desperate to save yesterdays low at 1929. So far the low has been 1932. If they can’t hold us over 1930, we will indeed be visiting 1913.

      • I should have said “The 200 MA” that 60 minute chart of the SPX, which is around 1980 today, but falling. So tomorrow it could be 1970-1975 SPX. That’s the actual level I’m looking to be hit. But after it’s hit (or close to being hit) I do expect the market to roll back down and continue down into Friday. So yes, I’m still bearish for this weeks’ close.

        For me it’s more about the time of day, the TA setup, falling and rising trendlines, etc… and less about that actual price level. Level’s rise and fall as time passes, so calling an exact level is tough. I’ll just say that “if” we gap up tomorrow and hit one of my many trendlines (and the other TA agrees… like overbought MACD’s, Sto’s, etc…) I’d look to short it regardless of what level it’s at.

        For example, I see another falling trendline the SPY right now that’s coming in around 195.50 but could be around 195 even by the open tomorrow. That’s only about 1950-1955 SPX, and if we gap up to that level and the other TA stuff shows overbought I’d short from that area.

        Meaning… I’m not waiting on some hit of the 200 MA tomorrow. The TA’s will tell me to short when they line up, and I’ll short no matter what the level is at.

  1. 9/23/15 turn date was a few days late…stable through October and collapse November is how I’m reading it. Not sure they could hold it together for a month, but will see. As stated in prior posts. Long Gold, Oil and playing Fear(VIX) positions. By the way, I think the Janet’s speech last night was a significant sign we are in a “Clear and Present Danger” stage of the financial game. Unfortunately, I believe she has suffered from a nervous breakdown from the stress..BE VERY CAREFUL.

  2. We have the whole blood moon thing Tomorrow night, but closing near the lows like yesterday usually leads to bounces. A big ripper monday would destroy bears

  3. It feels like it wants to flush out today. But right now it’s in between an 1870 SPX double bottom level to go long at for a decent multi-day rally, and a small 20-30 rally up then a drop to 1870 area. Either one is possible, but flushing out first… down to the 1870 area would probably hurt the most traders, and SkyNet loves to do that you know.

  4. From Richard Russell when the SPX was 2100 something?
    Theory #1 is in play and I really think everyone should be looking down in stead of up.( You haven’t seen TRUE FEAR yet)

    I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
    see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
    percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
    expected ten percent correction.

    But the general market continues to
    decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
    rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
    continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
    correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
    shares with him.

    The other scenario that I envision is
    one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
    a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
    for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
    market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
    previous closes and a bear market is on.

    • The 3rd scenario seems to be in play… but mixed with some shake out rallies along the way. So part is the 1st scenario with the jagged see-saw pattern, but the other part is the 3rd one as I do see a big gap down crash in the future coming.

    • There’s a falling trendline on the SPX that’s around 1925 today and will probably be around 1920 tomorrow. That would be the first level of resistance I’d think it will pause at. Maybe that will be an A wave up? Then a B wave down to come close to retesting the lows but actually it should put in a higher low. That would setup the C wave up to squeeze out the bears shorting at the bottom of the B wave down. Just speculation there of course.

  5. Russell 2000 was down 6.66 pts today.

    Anyway, ideally I am expecting for the SP to test its 8-24 lows tomorrow and then finish mildly down then bounce hard the following day. Or it could bounce hard tomorrow….really a reflexive bounce play off the lower BB…..or it could crash into 10-2 but I think that is the least likely scenario.

    My Nikkei 1990 scenario could still be in play though the current market has deviated from it somewhat. That spike off the double bottom low would see a fierce bounce to the 1960 area. But that is just one scenario.

    They’re also making it look like the 2011 scenario is playing out but we should have seen one more bounce up to the 50 day average before heading to the final lows ala Oct 2011.

    Then there is the South Sea Bubble scenario which would see one whopper of a rally tomorrow.

    • Consider how high we have rallied so far I’m only looking for a small pullback. Probably in the 1990 SPX area, or as low as 1890 SPX… but not much lower I don’t think. Either way, it’s likely a B wave down with the gap up being the A wave up. So we should see the C wave up into later today and tomorrow.

    • Ok… from the looks of the charts right now we need the Non-Farm Payroll report (released tomorrow morning before the open at 8:30 am EST) to be view positive and cause a squeeze up to above the high this morning on the ES Futures, which was 1930.

      Since this event is about the only “market mover” news (nothing the rest of Friday to move it much), it must take out 1930 to force a rally from bears shorting today. Failure to do so mean the top of the rally was the 1930 level and there’s not likely going to be any move higher to 1940-1950 anytime soon.

      There is another falling trendline around 1925 ES right now, that will probably be around 1920 tomorrow morning. If it breaks that with the NFP report news then possibly the rally continues. If it doesn’t break it then again, the top of this rally was likely in today at the 1930 ES high (1927 SPX).

      I’m NOT looking for any longs as the upside is limited in my opinion. I’m only looking for the right shorting spot, which could be at the open tomorrow if we don’t breakthrough the falling trendline of resistance (again, about 1925 now and should be 1920 tomorrow).

      So we look to short tomorrow’s open if they can’t get a bear squeeze going and take out today’s premarket ES Futures high of 1930 (which should then push up to 1940-1950). If they get the squeeze then we look for that higher level to short. I’d just say that we are 90-95% done with the rally up and should be looking for short entries into a low that I think we’ll see next Thursday or Friday.

  6. This sell off has been tracking the 2011 correction very closely. Back then around this same period the market made it’s final drop to make a lower low of 1074 SPX before the 4 year rally. This time around I don’t think they will repeat it. I think we are going down into this Thursday/Friday to make a higher low (1890-1920?) and then start one more powerful rally up into mid-November before topping again.

  7. Congrats on the Cubs. It looks like they are going to fulfill the Back to the Future 2 prophecy of the Cubs playing in the 2015 World Series.

    The Pope visited Philly a couple of weeks ago after giving his speech to the UN to exorcise the Curse of Tebow from the Silver Lining Playbook Eagles who have been floundering under the 1987 born new QB #7. It managed to produce a win the following day for those Eagles but they resorted to their losing ways last week.

    Interestingly, I saw the then pope back in September 1987, the last time he visited my neck of the woods.

    Tomorrow is 10-9 or 26 Tishrei or something close to that number which generally isn’t a good day for the stock market during swoons but it looks it has a date with destiny with another historical date. But tomorrow the Sun is doing a Tsquare with Pluto and Sirius and then a square with Uranus on Monday.

    SP is retesting the Sept Fed high and might make a divergent high tomorrow ala lower RSI on the 60 min and smaller time frames. The Dow has already exceeded that high and formed a classic Bwave topping pattern although we could see some dojis or shooting stars tomorrow.

  8. Red, remember we still have this fake print on VXX to contend with…. I believe soon. Also take a look at the SKEW index….Highest as of yesterday for the year, Another Black Monday is around the corner.

  9. Cubs made it to the next step in their quest to appear in the 2015 World Series as foretold in Back to the Future 2 as they beat the 100 win STL Cards in the first round of the NL Playoffs.

  10. Great post.

    this guy is rediculosuly accurate with his market calls, and said to watch the high yeild charts at the moment =>

    What we do have to remember is that every time those margin call charts keep getting posted on zerohedge, as in the SHORT INTEREST ones, we rally really hard two weeks later.

    Janet yellen, is smelling and reaking of 3 day old booze people. So the games will continue. When QE4 and QE5 comes, then what will people say?? That will be funny.

  11. Important to remember: “Back to the Future 2” they went forward in time to the date of October 21st, 2015, which is tomorrow. Could be a top? Could mean nothing? Don’t know but it’s worth paying attention too…

  12. Well, the dollar needed to start rallying to get the next leg down going ie overseas corporate earnings getting hammered.

    It looks like we should spike up to the 200 day average tomorrow. The 200 day average was a potential target for this rally and the B wave topped in June 2008 at the 200 day average.

    Also having been comparing the recent activity to the 1937 action and the B wave then did rally for 2 months into August of that year for something around 42 trading days. So far this counter-trend rally has done an initial 17 day bounce followed by an 8? day decline followed by a second bounce of 17 tds into today for a 42 day pop. Tomorrow also is the 708 year anniversary of a certain little event if measured by the Gregorian calendar.

    I do see an astro-catalyst now in the offing.

    The Steve Jobs movie is now out. Officialy, it was scheduled for release tomorrow Oct. 23 but it has already had a limited release. A nice harbinger of the upcoming tech bubble bust. Its the second JOBS movie now; they seem to have some fascination with him. This one, though, was penned by the Social Network writer so it should have some nice occultic tidbits. It was also the flick that was predominately referenced in the hacked Sony emails last December. Also directed by the director of 127 Hours and who later was responsible for the controversial London Olympics Opening Ceremonies so that should give it an extra occultic punch.

  13. From a technical point of view (and Elliottwave) we should pullback a little after the FOMC meeting today (probably top and drop on Thursday) and then rally back up Friday and into early next week to top out in the 2100 SPX area (+/- 10 points?).

    Funny how well this technical analysis lines up with the government running out of money. Is everyone just expecting that the debt ceiling will be raised again just because it has been raised 74 times since 1962?

  14. CFTC reports from Friday:

    Commercials present positions:
    DOW – 9% more on LONG
    S&P – 7% more on LONG
    NAZ – 22% more on SHORT
    $VIX- 4% more on LONG

    DOW they added to SHORT mostly
    S&P they reduced there LONG mostly
    NAZ they added more SHORT then LONG
    Flipped from more Short to Long on VIX

    $Doug OUT!

  15. Ok, I suspect now that the 20-30 point pullback I was expecting is NOW happening. We are over 20 points down from the high Tuesday. So now we need one more run up to make a higher high, double top, or slightly lower high (which would be a “failed” 5th wave up… called “truncated”)

  16. from a technical measure, the S&P full stochastics (measured by K 14,3 D 3) have crossed and are pointing lower. The RSI stochastics are curving over, and close to crossing. The MACD ( moving average convergence/divergence) is at 2.9 heading towards the zero line. Breadth is horrible.

  17. This happened right before the devalued the dollar in 1932

    Looks like they are trying to steal the sheep’s “Real Money” just before they destroy the value of the “Toilet Paper Money”. More evidence to me that the plan to crash this market like 1929 is still on will happen next year. Of course any fool turning in his/her gold will hate themselves after the devaluation of the paper money happens and gold and silver goes through the roof.

      • Yes… two scenario’s: One – Gap up Tuesday morning and make a run for the 2070 area to get very overbought and then top out. That should lead to a drop from there afterwards. How low… don’t know? Two: We open down Tuesday and pullback all day, which will then likely be some B wave down with a C wave up into Wed/Thurs to top then at a higher level then previously thought (maybe 2080-2090?). Then we rollover into Friday and the week after.

  18. Haven’t posted in awhile since I didn’t want to jinx anything but since the indices popped back to their 13 day emas and subsequently went above them, there is no reason to worry since they shouldn’t have reached them if a sustained downtrend was beginning. The indices bounced off their lower BBs last week and now the BBs are tightening and now the lower BBs should level off for the next sign of a top. The high a few weeks ago should have been the top since it came right on cue for a consistent trading day cycle I discovered as well as creating the identical proportion of the initial sell off and bounceback wave from a quaint little time back during the lesser grand ritual.

    There is a logical date for the next high based on a Gann turn/ astro setup but I could see a sustained flattish move for awhile as well similar to August.

    • My website was down for awhile Geccko so you didn’t miss anything. I’m having trouble with hosting company as I’m using up too much resources. I plan to move the site to a new host soon and will have a new look as well.

      As for the market, I do see a nice pullback soon but I don’t see the 1867 low being broken. Late November and early December we’ll a move down, and then a Santa Claus rally as usual into the first week of January. The final high should be in the first half of 2016 and then we crash in the 2nd half. Don’t know if it’s a lot higher, just a little or double top? But there is more up coming after a pullback.

  19. Sidenote: in Ghostbusters 2 there was a guest on the TV show that Bill Murray interviewed that said she had an alien tell her the end of the world was February 14th, 2016… and that movie was done back in the late 80’s. Very interesting for sure…

    As you know many factors tell me we will crash in 2016, but the big one isn’t expected until late that year. However, I do expect mid-January to be down with a bounce in February and then more down into March. Summer rally after that and then the big crash late in the year.

    So I don’t know if that date of 2/14/2016 that was mentioned in the movie is important or not but I did want to get it noted so I wouldn’t forget it.

  20. Technically there does not seem to be too much damage
    at the moment, we are in one of those crawling along type moves.
    BUY the dips!

    • I could see a rally tomorrow to 2080 area or so, then probably another move down into next week for the typical Thursday/Friday low the week prior to the monthly option expiration.

  21. Well take a look at this…

    WFC first to increase prime rate. Will affect: Credit card APRs, home equity lines, etc. Will NOT raise deposit interest rates.

    So they’re going to charge YOU more for credit, but won’t be giving you more on deposit. They know the middle class is toast, now their game is to just “save the system”. That was one of the reasons I predicted that we’d get a hike this year. They have to give the guy in the street the illusion that all is well, while at the same time taking care of their criminal banks.

    well…the fact is that America the Nation is being systematically dismantled. The globalist elites out of Brussels want a new world reserve currency, first based on the SDR system.

    The US dollar is going to be REMOVED as the world reserve. There’s going to be a “reset” and the SDR will be the world reserve. Yes we’ll still have dollars. But nations won’t have to acquire them to do trade in foreign lands. They’ll exchange their Rubles and Lira for SDR’s.

    Today’s rate hike in the face of recessionary economic reports is just another step towards their goal. I know how conspiracy nut that all sounds. But if you take a deep breath and really think about it…you know that it is what it is.

    • “conspiracy” — definition is:
      a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful.
      the action of plotting or conspiring..

      Sounds a lot like what the criminals do to the sheep. The sheep that tell the truth are label as “conspiracy nuts” while the truth is that what is say on the “Main Stream Media” is the TRUE “conspiracy”. Funny how everything in life is the opposite of what we think it is.

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