Sunday, May 26, 2024

ES Morning Update May 3rd 2016


Market is showing signs of weakness as it failed to rally up again on it's first up thrust to hit the falling trendline.

MACD's rolling over and "should" turn back up at some point today making a "higher low" then the prior -5 area low.

Yesterday I suggested we'd go up in some kind of ABC pattern to hit or come close to the falling trendline.  I still think that's possible, even with this morning having a gap down open.  While this could be the start of another big move down, or just an extension of last Thursday/Friday's C wave down, I think it has one more move up yet to come.

I'm looking for a move down this morning that should NOT break the prior low of 2045.75 last Friday which then should turn back up into Wednesday and/or Thursday for the completion of this ABC up.  At the open I suspect we'll see some early dip buyers that move it up a few points quickly, then we should go back down retest the premarket lows (currently at 2057.25) to lure in the bears.  It should go lower to take out those "stops" long the futures before the open but again, should NOT take out last Friday's low.  This is my higher odds forecast.

In the event we take out last weeks' low then the next support level is around the 2035 area from prior lows back in early April.  That horizontal support zone should hold the fall on the first hit of it.  Also we have a new falling trendline that is in that same 2035 zone (if the market fell today to make new lows).  That's your downside targets should my primary scenario fail today.  If not, then we should top out on Wednesday or Thusday for the ABC move up that I'm thinking has the highest odds of playing out.

Author: Red

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