Wednesday, June 19, 2024

ES Morning Update June 16th 2016


Bulls failed to get past resistance yesterday and dropped into the close, and this morning are still dropping.

MACD's oversold on this 60 minute chart as we'll as most all the other time frames too.

The Fed's decided to not raise rakes yesterday at the FOMC meeting.  The bulls had their chance to rally from the announcement but couldn't get through the resistance overhead... this is not good.  The daily, weekly and monthly charts are also very bearish and with the failure of Janet to rally the market yesterday it's clear the Fed's are out of bullets now.  This means any rallies we have will just be good shorts as odds are very good now that the high was put in last week at 2120.

The market broke-down yesterday before the close and started the move down, and I must say that I was a little surprised as I didn't expect it to happen without a little more upside first.  I missed that move and now we are 20+ points lower.  I think a lot of traders missed that move down as well.  And now, it's hard to short at this level due to how oversold we are on the short term charts.  But considering the fact that we'll be below the low on Tuesday now at the open we might be near a short term bottom?  Not sure on that but they might have cleared out all the bulls now and want to squeeze some bears.

Support on the ES Futures is 2055 and then the 2043-2045 zone.  Chartwise we should continue down today as there's plenty of pressure now from the daily and weekly chart... and the 60 minute chart (as well as the 2, 4, and 6 hour charts) are clearly having a hard time trying to rally back up against the larger time frames.  I feel like I missed this shorting opportunity as I wasn't expecting this drop late yesterday, but everyone misses them from time to time.  So I'm not jumping on the short side at the open as my gut tells me that's what SkyNet wants all the bears to do as the bulls got their stops hit now and are out of the trade.

Also, there's some positive divergence forming on the MACD's of the 60 minute chart as well.  I'm just going to wait for a clearly picture to form as I'm uncertain today about the direction.  Missing that down move yesterday before the close has made me re-think about what the market is trying to do here.  When I'm uncertain I'll say it... and that's how I feel today.  Charts say down but gut says we'll rally some into Friday as I think they just took out the bulls and will now work on squeezing some bears.  There's also a possible upside FP on IWM that I'm concerned about (which I posted in the chatroom last night).

Author: Red

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