The futures are down a little this morning but nothing huge. I guess Trump didn't do anymore tweets over the weekend... LOL. This week I do think we are going to see tradeable setup appear. Maybe today, but I'm thinking more likely tomorrow. We either need a couple of more days down to flush out all the bulls so a strong rally can start, or we need to to a fake out, short lived rally today and tomorrow. If we flush out into tomorrow then I'm a bull and if we fake out I'm a bear.
A bounce today and tomorrow is a short I think as there's too many bulls still buying this drop. And there's not really as much bearishness as you'd think. Even the bears are thinking a bottom is near and not shorting it. This move down has been a steady and well controlled one. The "fear drops" don't seem to exist much anymore.
Probably due to the fact that everything is now 100% computer traded with no floor exchanges anymore. This is also (most likely) the reason that there's not enough bearishness currently from this drop since the May 1st top.
I don't know how it's going to play out but if we get two days up in a row (into tomorrows close) I do believe that will be a fake out on the bulls and another large drop will follow. But if we drop again today and tomorrow then I think SkyNet is going to take it back up later this week. However, with that scenario I think the move back up will be very choppy and last about 3 weeks to frustrate both sides. It would make a nice bear flag on the daily and should retrace at least half of the move down.
So the 2850 zone at least should be reached if this is the plan by SkyNet. Personally though I'd rather see it do another large drop to get this over with so it can start a rally up to new all time highs the rest of the year. But SkyNet never gives me what I want so more then likely we'll drop some today and tomorrow and then start a choppy 3 week rally back up before this larger drop occurs and takes us down to my 2450 SPX target zone. It sure would be nice to get it started later this week with a fake out two day rally up but I'm not holding my breath on it. Regardless of which one happens today isn't likely to be too exciting. Have a great one.
