I did a long update over the weekend and posted it Sunday afternoon, so I'll keep this one short and just refer you to read that long update for the bigger picture. For the short term I lean toward an early rally this week up near the all time high, but I think it fails to take it out and instead makes a lower higher.
Odds favor that happening today and then some choppy action the rest of this week that drifts lower, with the bottom being put in next Monday morning (or Sunday night, the 25th). From there it's up to around 5307, which I think will happen into the March 22nd turn date. After that a nice pullback of some decent amount. How much I don't know but I'd think it could be that 7-10% pullback that everyone is looking for, but it might be less... hard to say right now. I covered all the past periods where the pattern appeared and we had different percentages on each one.
It was anywhere from 3% to 9% going back 20 years, so I'd think somewhere in the middle would be the zone. If it's 5% for example then from 5300 we'd pullback to about 5035, but I'd think they might want to pierce through it a little to make everyone think the high is in... which it might be, but studying the past it wasn't the last high the majority of the time. But I'm getting ahead of myself, so let's just focus on the short term. That is up early this week (today) to try and make another higher high, and then down into the 25th/26th.
Have a blessed day.
