A choppy day yesterday with a negative bias. The 443.44 FP on the QQQ was hit and pierced, so it's done now. The new upside FP almost got hit but came shy a little and the lower FP of 441.00 is still out there and will be hit at some point. Here it is...
Looking at the technical picture we should go lower before any strong rally up, which leans toward the downside FP being hit today, maybe Wednesday, but I think it hits today. As for the upside FP... well, it might hit in the morning session first and then we drop for the lowest FP. If so, I'd say the RSI and MACD will be oversold enough on the 2hr chart to put a bottom in and allow another good move up, which again... might make another higher high, or fall short.
Once we hit that lower FP I think we'll be oversold enough to produce a strong move up, which should last into the end of the week this Thursday. Then we have a long 3 day weekend ahead, and I would not be surprise to see another pullback into the first week of April. The solar eclipse is on the 8th, and I do think that could cause some shakiness in the market until it's past by.
It would be a great time to pull the rug out on the bulls... especially if they hit my FET of 5334 and pierce it this week. Personally I'm only interesting in going long on the hit and piece of the downside FP on the QQQ at 441.00, which could be around 5250 or so on the ES. No shorts for me right now... not yet at least. Maybe if there's a new all time high to my FET by this Thursday close, as by then I'd think we'll be overbought enough to get a deeper pullback. And I'm sure all the bears will be toast if this happens.
Have a blessed day.
