The verdict is in now as the Demomcrats convicted President Trump on all count, but ZERO charges. They did not put him in jail, so the stock market is holding now. I gave it low odds of a flash crash and that's seems to be correct as even though they convicted him they did not have the guts to put him in jail.
Wise move as it already bad enough for them. This is going to rally more and more Americans to support President Trump and vote for him this November. The stock market should be close to a bottom now for this multi-day pullback. It's around the end of the month now too, which is where "turn's" commonly happen at.
I do not know though if the coming rally will be on to another new all time high or just a lower one. The daily chart is still overbought so I doubt if we get past the rising green trendline of resistance yet. The weekly chart is still overbought but it is trying to turn back up on the MACD's now. Problem is... today is Friday and it ends the weekly candle. So there would need to be a strong move back up today to get a bullish cross on it. I don't think it will happen.
I think we will go up next week but only for a lower high, or possibly a slightly higher one to tag the rising green trendline again. But I just can't see it getting through it yet as more time is needed to get the MACD and the RSI lower on both the daily and weekly chart before any really strong rally is likely to start. It's still looking to me like we are going to be rangebound for quite awhile into mid-late June.
Whether or not we hit that FP or not is just something I don't know? It's from a charting program (Yahoo's website) that don't have any track record of FP's being accurate. I have years of data for FP's showing up on Think Or Swim, so I know they work and are hit at some point. I'm just going to keep an open mind into June to see if we get a pullback that looks like it might get close. For though I'm just going to stick with a wide range bound trading area for several more weeks to allow the necessary time to pass so that the charts can reset from being so overbought.
Have a great weekend and God Bless President Trump.
I got sell signals on Monday and more have followed. We bounced off the 30 day average today. We probably have a few more days to a week of bouncing around.
The 30 day probably needs to catch up to a key shorter term moving average before we accelerate down.
Election years can be bad for the stock market when the presidential incumbent loses the election or can’t run for reelection and in 1974 when the incumbent is removed from office. It’s interesting that Trump’s sentencing will occur in July at a key astro time.
We’ve got a 12 year anniversary of the Fahrenheit 451 Venus eclipse of the sun next week. It was June 5/6 in 2012. Also the French Open will be taking place, a key setting for the LeCarre novel Our Kind of Traitor.
I think we’ll be rangebound for several weeks as the daily and weekly charts just don’t support a new leg up to 6000+ starting yet. I still think that at some point next month we’ll hit that downside FP and then we’ll start a real rally.
New moon on the 6th. Venus Sun conjunction on the 5thish. Also the first four trading months of the new month. Low or high?
There is the Fed meeting the next week. Drop first then rally up into the meeting?
Friday would have been the day for the market to make a high with my sells on and reverse ala November 22, 2022 but we already reversed the week before. Now we’re at a key resistance level for a key indicator so we could reverse back down once again. And this key indicator is in a downtrend and most likely is going to take awhile to reverse.
The 13 day simple moving average might be providing key resistance again like a little over a month ago.
As I texted: Putin’s America with its rigged show trials.
I’d say we’ve be at a high into the 6th, not a low. The 12th is the next FOMC meeting, so I suspect that we’ll pullback into it. The CPI also is out on the 12th, so we might chop with a downward bias into that date and then we should see a stronger move after it. Up or down, I don’t know? But it we pullback deep enough then it will be a buy of course.