Isn't it amazing how there's always some kind of event that happens right around an important turn in the market? This Wednesday, which is before the turn window, other countries will be submitting their best offers to President Trump concerning the tariff's. It's perfect timing for the final wave 5 up to start... if that's the event the market is waiting on? The tariff's have been "front and center" the last couple of months concerning the sell off to the April low and the rally back up from it.
So other events, like the CPI, Jobs Numbers, Unemployment numbers, and even FOMC meetings have been meet with a yawn. The event really isn't important as when the time is up, (for bulls or bears) it's up. A top is near but the window for the turn is really between the 6th and 11th, so if we get a strong breakout of this zone this Wednesday the rally is likely to last into the 6th to 11th before it finishes and rolls over, which if it's later (like the 11th) we should bottom in late June, not mid-June.
The price level is very likely going to be around the 5500 zone as that's roughly equal to the FP on NVDA, but the timing of it is still a best guess. Since it's likely that this Wednesday we'll breakout to the upside that rally could last into early next week and we might even see a double top? I don't have any FP's on the upside, but there are several price levels that will be targets. One is 6032, then 6058, and 6077... and above that is a new high of 6213.
Those are just estimates of course, but if there's something rally positive that comes out about the tariff's I think we can see a new high. If this happens we should finally see the "Fear and Greed" get maxed out, which it's not right now. I think we need to see it reach extreme levels before we can get the pullback that everyone is looking for. I had thought that we'd just make a slightly higher high and then rollover, but with this tariff event coming tomorrow I think it's the planned "event" to get the market to new highs.
Have an blessed day.
