Thursday, August 28, 2025

ES Morning Update August 5th 2025

Not much to add today other then the market appears to have completed the ABC down fo the wave 4 already and the C wave doesn't need a final wave 5 down inside it as it's finished. It suggests we are in a wave 1 up and have completed 4 out of 5 waves inside it.

Once it's done (probably today), we should see the wave 2 down play out into this Thursday. It should be an ABC but of course doesn't have to play out like that. It could be a one wave move, but odds are low because of how much time is left until Thursday. Either way, once it's finished we should start a wave 3 up inside a bigger wave 5, that should complete sometime next week.

I suspect it completes midweek and does a smaller degree A down and B (or 1 down and 2 up?) going into next Friday so that it's ripe for a nasty drop starting the week of the 18th, which is where I think we get the pullback to the 588.79 FP on the SPY. It's leaning now toward September 18th being a low, which would be the large wave 4 correction that we've been looking to happen for months now.

If it plays out this way we'll see a massive blow off top for the last wave 5 to 7000-8000 happen in the following months. We should top out in early 2026, like in the first quarter, and then the real bear market starts. All just speculation for now, but the short term should be easier to figure out, and that's a pullback for a higher low into this Thursday.

Have an blessed day.

Red
Author: Red

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