Games, games and more games. The market (SkyNet?) clearly knows the final high before the big drop is the 655.66 FP on the SPY and it keeps teasing everyone by getting close but stopping short by a few points. So far the high has come in on the 5th/8th as I guessed at on my September 3rd morning update.
A low should be around the 11th this week (roughly of course) and then we go back up into the next turn window of the 15th-17th... but the 17th is the FOMC, so that's most likely going to be the top. If they front run it though, and hit the FP beforehand, the meeting should be blamed for the selloff. The market loves to inflict maximum pain on both the bulls and the bears, and if it waiting until the 17th to start the selloff the down move will be over with very quickly as the expected bottom is between the 22nd-24th, which isn't much time from the 17th. I'd love to see it play out like this personally as it will create the most bearishness due to the speed of the drop.
And that will of course be even more powerful for the bulls as all those bears will get a mega squeeze put on them after the low is put in. I don't know what the low will be but my focus will be on the dates where a low should happen. If it reaches the 588.79 FP on the SPY from 6/24/2025 then I'll be super happy and will go long will both feet and hands. The move up should be explosive and reach new all time highs again before the end of October. I think we could even reach 7000 or more by then "if" we get this scenario. If instead we decline slowly into the downside FP it will be much harder to rally that fast. We need to see the short lived flash crash type move from the 17th to the 22nd-24th for the squeeze to happen that quickly, and I think we have a pretty good chance of that playing out.
Have an blessed day.
