The ES Futures has now rolled into the March, 2026 contract as the December, 2025 has ended. Of course it's a big gap up when this happens and causes the SPX Cash to be 50-60 points lower, so keep that in mind going forward. Nothing has changed as far as my thoughts go. I see see a choppy December with a slight downward bias into at least the 24th, and possibly right into the end of the month.
Usually there is a Santa rally right after Christmas but I suspect there won't be one this time around. I stay that because the cycles suggest that, and don't suggest the next big rally will start until January. We'll have to let this play out as if we get a good enough pullback into the 24th, like to a strong support level (the falling white trendline), then maybe we get some kind of move up the week after, but I still don't think it will be the typical "Santa Rally" that everyone expects.
Or maybe it goes up some and pulls back for a "higher low" into the 31st? The bottom line here is that the big squeeze rally move should not start until January, and it should be a wave 3 up where we will blow through 7000 like it wasn't even there. Currently we are just in the process of carving out a wave 2 down pullback, and that should take all month to finish. I have no interest in trying to time it and take it as the easy money will be the wave 3 up in January.
Have an blessed day.
