Too Many BEARS...

The market has failed to pullback like I had hoped it would do, but instead has chopped sideways to frustrate both bulls and bears alike. Now we have too many people looking for that pullback to get long at, so odds are super low that it will happen. Instead we are likely to grind higher, out of this range, into early next week.

Then a pullback into the same range again into next Friday, May the 8th... which will be the last spot to get long before the non-stop grind upward happens into June 5th or so. It will be a slow but stead grind and will frustrate everyone on both sides. It will be designed to put everyone to sleep, and once we see 7600+ we'll see the bears finally give up and become bulls.

Then once everyone starts calling for 8000 we'll top out before reaching it, and then the top will finally be in. When we finally see it do its' first decent pullback the bulls (and bears) will "buy the dip" expecting 8000, but it should only bounce small to put in a lower high and continue down again. At some point it will complete a sneaky, not noticed "A Wave", and the B Wave up will be short lived, and possibly only 50%... which is uncommon in bull markets as they usually do at least 61.8%, but it won't be a bull market at that point.

The pattern "could" be like the 2020 crash, which saw the A Wave down retrace to the sideways chop zone back then, and bounced maybe 50% for the B Wave. If that happens we'll see a drop back down into this 7100's area, then a fast 3-4 day bounce, and then the C Wave down will start and take us into July where I think we'll see a new FP on the SPY of 600.14 get hit. Notice how that will be lower then the March low, which will be similar to the 2020 low being lower then the prior big low in December of 2018.

I don't know for certain that it will follow that pattern, but the cover of the 2026 Economist does show a sharp drop after the final high, so it's going to be fast and will be follow one pattern from the past, or another that has a sharp drop. For now though I'm just sitting on my hand, (wishing we had a good pullback), looking for the May 8th pullback to get long at.

Have a great weekend.

Nothing has changed as the market is topping out right now and still has a good pullback coming, which will likely happen over the weekend from the looks of it. The target is still the 670.53 FP on the SPY from 4/13, and of course it should pierce through it by some amount. I know that seems deep but in reality it's a normal percentage of a pullback, which will be around 50% or so. I posted a chart on X this Monday showing what I think is coming, and below is that chart.

The last few days we've seen the market pullback tiny, go back up for a lower high, pullback tiny again, and other lower high. It may or may not make a slightly higher high, but it doesn't matter as there's not much left on the upside (if any?) compared to the downside. What will be the reason for the pullback you ask? I don't know? But maybe Trump bombs Iran one last time over the weekend, or some other news spooks the market.

The real reason is in the "cycles", which suggest there is a pullback coming into the end of the month. With the FOMC next week on the 29th it could be used for the reason to drop the market too... or it could be used for the bottom and we rally from it, which is my thinking. If they drop the market to the FP into the meeting then something will be viewed as positive from the meeting and we'll start "The BIG Squeeze" up afterwards.

Possibly the Fed decides to do a surprise rate cut? Anything is possible, but "what" the news will be is unknown. I can only say that the cycles point to a low around then and a super strong rally to start after... which should be Medium Wave 3 up, and the first rally will be Small Wave 1, which should end in early May, where a brief (and likely small "in points" pullback) should happen for Small Wave 2 into around May 8th.

After that we'll see Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 3 up, and that should be a non-stop, day after day, squeeze on the bears into a top around June 5th. What happens after that will feel like a crash, and probably look like one too. But we'll cover that once we get there.

Have a great weekend.

We should be finishing up Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave 1 today, or Monday at the latest. The rally has been quite strong and surprised a lot of traders I'm sure. Many shorted the double top only to see it keep on grinding higher, and now I'd say most of given up and turned bullish.

But there's still another pullback coming next week for Medium Wave 2 down, which will likely be an ABC move with the C wave happening on Thursday or Friday. I say that because the cycle window of time for the low is between the 22nd-25th, which is later in the week. It could end in the beginning of that window I guess, hard to pinpoint the exact day. Cycles don't always repeat that perfectly, but they get close. Now, how low will it go you ask? That's a hard question that I con only guess at. I posted on X a few days ago of a chart of a new FP on the SPY of 670.53, which would be close to a 50% pullback from the March low, and right in line with typical wave 2's (or 4"s).

But it doesn't have to go that low, as the only thing that has high odds is that the cycle will produce a pullback of some degree with the ideal low being next Friday. It's at that point where Small Wave 1 inside Medium Wave 3 up should start, and it should last until early May before a tiny pullback for Small Wave 2 happens.

That cycle window points to a low around May 8th, but again, the market will be in a strong Medium Wave 3 up, so Small Wave 2 might be a one day event, and possibly only a 100 points... who knows for sure? After that Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 3 will last until around the end of May, and I think we'll see 7300+ in that move. Then Medium Wave 4 will chop everyone up for a few months before Medium Wave 5 up finishes in July, possibly August, where we should see 7600+ happen.

Hard too know what the level will be on any of the waves, so keep in mind they are estimates. Medium Wave 3 up could hit 7400, or more, I don't for sure? But there's big resistance up around the 7600 zone that area should be the final high zone. Could it reach 7777 for some ritual event? Of course, but when July and August comes, and the market is up around 7600+, I will not be calling for 8000 like everyone else. That will be when I'll start looking for the Big Short.

Have a great weekend.

We finally got the big squeeze up I was looking for, and while I don't think it will be straight up to 7600 or wherever, I do see this move up lasting for longer then many expect and a new all time high happening. Why? Because we got too oversold on the short term and everyone and their brother is mega bearish now. So they have too turn bullish before we get another big drop, and that means a double top at minimum, but more likely a blow off top to 7600+ is a MUST in my opinion. Plus we have the cover of the Economist telling us that it will retest the highs (again... a minimum). Below is a zoomed in image of it in case you haven't seen it.

As you can see we do have a small pullback around the midpoint of the rally up according to that chart. Again, I don't have a long enough track record of the prior years covers to know how accurate they are or not, but I do think the message is clear on this one... bottom in the first quarter, massive squeeze back to double minimum, and then another drop that fails to retest the prior lows but gets close. After that we get up and downs into the elections and appear to have the start of the next biggest drop afterwards, which will likely carry into the first quarter of 2027 where we will eventually fill the 5339 gap on the ES... but that's for another day.

April 2nd, 2026 wave count below...

For the present I'm looking for a little more up to finish Medium Wave 1 up, not M3 as posted on the chart from April 2nd.  I've changed that wave count a little as I this rally will last into late May or even June, and then Medium Wave 4 down should follow, but again... it doesn't look huge on the chart from the Economist and from a technical point of view it should only be deep enough to suck in some more bears looking for another big drop.

That Medium Wave 4 should be the choppy topping process that could drag out into August before the last push up to finish it all... then we get the crash drop into the fall like many prior big drops happen.

New Update Wave Count...

Anyway, for the short term, we should end (could have already happened?) Small Wave 3 up soon, then a quick Small Wave 4 down, and finally a Small Wave 5 up, to end Medium Wave 1 up. This could all happen within the next 2-3 days with the 6900 zone as a magnet.

It's Medium Wave 2 that could be a decent pullback to lure in some more shorts before the last hurrah up to a double top or new high into summer, with some flexibility on the time line (meaning it could end early, like May/June, or drag out into August) based on how high it goes and how may waves get completed. Plus we need to see the bears give up and go all in long.

Back to the short term... after Medium Wave 1 ends (in a few days at most), Medium Wave 2 should be an ABC that drags out into late April (with the 19th-24th as the ideal zone) where the end of that move happens, and so should the war in Iran.  This will be the period that frustrates the most traders as Medium Wave 2 will not take out the current lows but will tease everyone with fast drops that get bought up but make you think it's going lower.

After Medium Wave 1 up finishes (this week), we should see Small Wave A down into early next week, then Small Wave B up (OPEX week rally) and Small Wave C down the following week.  Somewhere in that period we should see the bottom of this ABC correction for Medium Wave 2, which will align with the war finally ending.

It's at that point where we'll see the mega squeeze up on the market that tricks the masses looking for the old "Sell In May, And Walk Away" pattern to play out, as it should be a non-stop rally for Medium Wave 3, and it could reach 7600+ into the end of that wave, then do the choppy Medium Wave 4 (an ABC) into August where we might see some last "higher high" up to some ritual number, like 7777 or something?  That will end Medium Wave 5 up and Large Wave 5... and then all hell breaks loose.

Have a great weekend.

The low is most likely in now. The March 30th low should have ended my Extra Tiny Wave 5, inside Tiny Wave 5, inside Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave C, inside Large Wave 4... whew, what a mouthful (LOL)! I posted a chart of the wave count on X Monday Evening showing this wave count, and suggesting that we drop to the 627.03 FP on the SPY to finish all those waves. But that's looking less likely now as that Extra Tiny Wave 5 likely ended that day at the 6353 low on the ES. Below is that chart again...

Now, let's talk about the move up from that low and what should be coming next. That move up is likely some degree of a wave 1 inside Large Wave 5 up, which right now I'm going to label as Medium Wave 1, but that is subject to change. Therefore, the pullback currently in play now should be Medium Wave 2 down. You'll notice that it's making a beautiful Inverted Head and Shoulder with this pullback, which will be the Right Shoulder of it. What's coming next week should be the start of Medium Wave 3, and of course it should subdivide into 5 smaller waves. Below is a chart of it...

Have a great weekend.

The market looks weak, so another move down into the end of the month does look likely. It might be a higher low or lower low... I'm not sure? With those multi-FP's put out on February 6th, 2026 there's still a possibility that we make a lower low to hit them. I'm going to go over the wave count for both a higher low and a lower low. I do not know which one will play out but I would lean toward a higher low (a medium wave 2) if it wasn't for those FP's still not being hit and fulfilled. But with the history of FP's I have to lean toward a lower low to hit them. Those FP's are below again...

Ok, let's look at the "higher low" wave count, which basically has a small C wave down, inside a medium wave 2, happening most likely into the end of the month, which is next Tuesday. Then we start small wave 1 up, inside medium wave 3 up. Here's that chart...

Next will be the flush drop for the lower low to hit the multi-FP's and complete large wave 4 down. It would make more sense from a wave count it would be an tiny wave 5 down inside small wave 5, inside medium wave C, inside large wave 4. Here's that chart...

Notice how clean looking in would be to have 5 tiny waves down from the high of small wave 4 on March 10th. From that high there's only 3 waves down to end that small wave 5 down. It looks like it's missing one more move down, which the rally last Sunday, on March 23rd, would be the tiny wave 4 up, and then we would be in a tiny wave 5 down now, which would subdivide into 5 extra tiny waves most likely. The drop last Monday, March 24th, would have put in the low for extra tiny wave 1, then the rally up from it would be extra tiny wave 2, and we would still need to see extra tiny wave 3, 4 and 5 still to come... which would complete tiny wave 5, inside small wave 5, inside medium wave C, inside large wave 4, and that completes everything.

If this plays out I'd look for the low to be into the end of this month and for the FP's to be hit and pierced. Which one? I don't know? I'll just be looking for the waves to finish up and for the "time" to run out, and "ideally" for the FP's to get hit. I've taken 3 stabs at some longs and will take one more long if this plays out into next Tuesday. I don't want to risk a short as I know we are on the tail end of the bearish period. We will start a major squeeze in April, so I want to get a great position for that long, which is why I keep buy longs with plenty of time to play out. We shall see.

Have a great weekend.

Yesterday was a "dud" with NO mini crash like so many people were looking for. I got caught up in it myself but I'm trying to "shake it off" as time is running out for the bears and there's really not any more known news event that could cause such a big drop to play out before the end of this week.

So I think that's all we are going to see on the downside and that we are in the process of turning back up and starting the big rally. For that reason I took another long yesterday near the close of the day, and I'm targeting April 30th now for my expiration, and 7400+ as the level I think we will be at by then. Next week should be a strong one for the bulls, and this week we should have put in the low in the Sunday futures and from here on out we should continue to see higher lows.

The VIX had its' big move up and has come down quite nicely from that spike high, so anymore moves up on it should be for lower highs to keep the divergence intact between it and the SPX cash index, which made a lower low yesterday then the 3/13 low or the 3/9 low. The VIX made its' high on 3/9 and has made lower highs since then. This is a positive divergence between the two of them and should setup the market for a strong rally up into May where 7600+ is very possible. We shall see...

Have a great weekend.

The market has one more window of time where a low should come in, which is the 17th-20th of this month. It does not need to be a lower low, and in fact I think the odds of that happening are super low.

It should be a higher low as I think it's pretty clear now that we are in a wave 2 pullback from the face ripper rally high from wave 1 that ended on March 10th. Since the time window for the low is next week I have to think this wave 2 is going to unfold in an ABC pattern whereas we are in A down from that March 10th high, and will do the B wave up next, that could last into next Monday or Tuesday.

It should be a lower high then the March 10th high of wave 1 up. Then the wave C down inside wave 2 should follow. It should bottom between the 17th-20th next week and produce max fear. Crash callers should be everywhere, which will provide the fuel for the wave 3 up to follow. Between now and the bottom of this wave 2 is the shakeout period where bulls bail out and bears load up for the slaughter from the massive squeeze for the wave 3 that will follow.

This should all last into late April or May to have all 5 wave unfold, which will complete a much larger wave 5 up. Then an ABC down will happen that will look and feel like a crash as it should fill the gap on the ES at 5339 from last year before the end of 2026. An early guess here is that the A wave will be from May to July, and then the B wave will go up into August (or September).

Then the C down is into October. If you can catch it there will be massive money to be made. But it won't be easy, nor is the rally up to the 7600+ that is currently dragging it's feet. I'm still long and will look to add to my position next week when I see the ABC down play out. Nothing to do now but wait for that to happen and take another shot at riding the bull.

Have a great weekend.

The market fooled me last week as I thought it had already bottomed, but it didn't. It decided to go hit the 660.08 FP on the SPY after all in one more flush out drop into the Sunday futures. The window for the expected low was March 3rd-5th, but clearly that was off as it has carried into 8th, but I bought plenty of time with my longs I got last week, so while I'm frustrated that I didn't see this coming, and actually catch it, I still am confident that we will see a massive squeeze to 7600+ into April-May.

I'm trying a different trading method by only taking trades with high odds of playing out on the medium term and not focusing that much on the short term. Why? Because the short term moves are too hard to figure out and get right. I'm not sweating this drop as I still have lots of time for the expected rally to play out. In fact, I expect the down move from last night to get fully erased by the end of this week to put in a long bottoming tail candle on the weekly chart. This drop is the fuel needed for the bulls to squeeze the bears for the next couple of months. Don't get sucked into thinking we are crashing as we aren't... we are bottoming.

Have an blessed day.

The bearish period has ended as March 3rd-5th was the expected bottom zone as far as "cycles" go. Meaning the low is very likely "in" now and we should be starting a move up to 7600+ into mid-April or May. Of course we could see some pullbacks along the way but once we breakout to a new high those pullbacks should be small as we'll be in some degree of a wave 3 up during that period.

On the big picture here's what I see on the weekly chart...

Right now we are in the early part of the move, but by OPEX week we should see the big squeeze start   I exited my shorts on Monday and got long, which I plan to hold into April OPEX.  So I will ride out all the up's and down's as I have my goal and I'm not going to try to go in and out as it usually screws me.  As for a daily chart, here it is...

I really don't have much to say as the short term moves up and down are hard to figure out. I'll only say that it's highly likely that the lows are in and that we should start the next big rally up soon, and it should last into mid-April or even into May, with a target of 7600+ on the ES/SPX.

Have a great weekend.

The market is setting up for a fast drop to end this multi-month correction. It should happen next Monday to Wednesday, and still can (and should) reach the 200 day SMA on the daily chart as that's where the multi-FP's are around on the SPY, which is roughly the 640 zone. On the chart it should be a C wave down and once the FP's are hit the market should rip non-stop into mid-April. I know the rally yesterday makes it look like the bottom is in, but the cycles say we have one more pullback coming into early-mid next week. I guess it could be a higher low, but I seriously doubt it as it should be a C wave down and it's "needed" to get everyone super bearish so they can be used as fuel for the big squeeze that will follow afterwards. Here's the short term wave count below...

As you can see it's looks very much like a wave 3 of C is coming next, and that "next" could start this Friday, but the worst of it should be next Monday-Wednesday. If you are looking for a chance to make a bunch of fast money I do think we'll get that chance into a flush out low early next week, and then even more money on the way back up into mid-April. No long post here as while it's dragging it's feet it's "overall" doing as I expected for the bigger picture.

Have a great weekend.

The market has rallied up in front of next Monday/Tuesday when I thought we'd see this move play out. I was thinking that we'd chop around the early lows from this week, into this Friday, and then rally next week. But the market has other plans it seems as it's been grinding higher each day now since the early week low.

It's looking like it's waiting for some "event" to make the next move, and with today being OPEX it could go either way. I could make the case that the rally is done in a one wave move and that we are going down from here.  Or I can make the case that we are in an ABC rally up and the A up finished Wednesday, and the B down followed.  That leaves the door open for a strong move up into next Monday or Tuesday for the C wave.

My thoughts are that "if" we can get the C wave up today, to make higher high from the Wednesday high, I think that will end the move up and next Monday we should rollover and start the move down to the 660.08 FP on the SPY, or even the multiple FP's in the 640's, which would be close to the 200 day SMA on the daily chart.

If instead today goes down more, but doesn't take out the recent low, then I have to lean toward an ABC move up carrying into next week where we are in the B wave down and that Monday/Tuesday could see the C wave up to take out the high from this Wednesday, and possibly hit the falling trendline from the 1/28 high that connects to the 2/2 high and 2/11 high.

That would be into the 6950's area probably. So the close today is important.  If we go lower I can't short it (unless it's a flush to the FP's?), as then I'll have to wait for Monday/Tuesday to see if the C wave up happens.  If we go up and take out this Wednesdays high (to run the stops on the shorts) then I think Monday starts the down move. Bottom line is that what happens today is important. If we get the move up I think we could see an ugly move down next week.

It's a flip of a coin on which way it's going first as the cycles point to a high next Monday/Tuesday, but that would suggest that we do not make a run to say 6950 or so in some C wave squeeze move.  The Supreme Court could make a decision today at 10am EST about Trump's Tariff's, which if they rule them as unconstitutional then the market will tank.  But odds of low of the decision for today, and higher for next Tuesday or Wednesday.  If we don't get a big squeeze today then we could still go up into next Tuesday (assume no war with Iran over the weekend) where we top out and then they rule against Trump... which will be the catalyst for the market to fall off a cliff.

Have a great weekend.

My target date zone between the 9th-12th failed to play out, and we saw the low hit the 5th instead. I was looking for a low this week and then we go up into OPEX next week, with the 20th being the ideal date for the high. I have that FP on the SPY of 660.08, which I was thinking we would see this week. Since then, they have put out some new FP's that are much lower.

Multiple FP's show a high of 695.77, which was hit on this rally this week. The other FP's on the screenshot from February 6th show downside targets of %642.83, $640.13, $627.03, $640.13, $642.83 and $639.11... which is much lower then the 660.08 prior FP. I'm puzzled on when they are going to hit, and which one? Since the cycles point up next week, into the 20th (maybe into the 23rd/24th), I can't see the move down to the FP's starting until after that date. Below is those FP's again...

This FP was put out on January 14th...

The New FP's were put out on February 6th...

Between now and the 20th-24th I have to think the market is going to frustrate bulls and bears alike without breaking out huge to SPY 700 and not breaking down hard either. Could we see the 700 level hit before then? Of course. It's still a big magnet with tons of calls at that level.

It will be super hard to get through it, but it's also pulling the market up to it. Possibly we see chop next week and one last "hurrah" move up to finally hit that 700 magnet. They won't make this easy or obvious. Cycles say next week is bullish, but with that wall of calls around the 700 level there's not much left on the upside... if it gets there at all? Most likely we chop with only small pullbacks, which get bought up fast, and then some last move up between the 20th-24th to hit the 700 SPY level. Once all those calls are sold that magnet will go away and then we can see the next move down happen into around March 2nd-4th, where we could (should) see "at least" that 660.08 FP on the SPY.

The BIG Picture...

The Medium Term Picture...

I posted a chart on X yesterday near the low, which is still valid.  We should go up into next week.  Here's that chart again...

Have a great weekend.

We are close to a short term bottom I think, but it looks like the last low will be late next week. The market did rally this week and put in the high on Monday, 2/3... which was a little earlier then my target date of 2/4. But I did short it as I just felt that it wasn't going to make a new higher high for a final 5th wave as posted on my chart from last Friday. When I did that chart I labeled that final wave 5 up as "T5", which would end "S1", and then we should start the ABC correction down to the 660.08 FP on the SPY. But the low on that chart for ETC inside T4 got taken out on 2/2, and "that chart" with that wave count, was screenshot and created on 1/30, where the low wasn't taken out. That chart is below for reference.

Wave Count From 1/30/2026

What does it mean you ask?

It means that it moves the projected high for S1 back to the T3 high, as that's where we hit 7043 on the ES, which was on 1/28/2026.  I have bounced back and forth between that being the high, or one more higher high into around 2/4, and it turns out that it was indeed the high as the 2/3 high was a lower one.

I also did a daily chart showing the possible wave count from that post last week on 1/30/2026, which of course also projected a higher high for T5 inside S1, into the 4th of this month.  Then I showed TA starting down, and into a low that should happen next week.  But I projected it as a "higher low" then the low for TC expected to happen into early March.  Here's that chart below...

Wave Count From 1/22/2026

So where are we now you ask?

Well, the move down for TA is "in play" right now, but we are already at the 1/21 prior low for T4, and have taken it out in the futures right now as I type this post up Thursday night.  So I think the TA and TC levels are going to flip, where the low (660.08 FP on the SPY?) will be hit next week, and it will complete TC as TA likely already ended at the low on 2/2, with the rally up into 2/3 being TB.  Here's the current wave count below...

As you can see on that chart we should be in the last moves of a wave 3 down of some degree.  On the chart I suggest it's the black wave 5 inside the blue/green wave 3, but that could be wrong?  We could also be in the blue/green wave 5, inside the red wave 3 down.  if the open Friday is another gap down I'll have to think we are in that larger wave count and that the red wave 3 will end early in the trading session to allow a red wave 4 rally to start, which will probably last into next Monday/Tuesday.  Then the last drop for the red wave 5, inside black wave C plays out into next Thursday/Friday where we "ideally" reach the 660.08 FP on the SPY.

Keep your eyes on the VIX today as if we get a nasty spike up, like to the 28-30 zone where a triple top would happen, then there's high odds for a bottom for the red wave 3 today, and a strong bounce for red wave 4 should last into as late as next Tuesday... but could end all in one day (today) if it retraces back up enough.

How much is unknown but if we saw a move back up to 6864 low for black A wave bottom on 2/2 I would re-short it as that's too fast and won't hold in my opinion.  Meaning that if we gap down at the open Friday I'll likely exit my short.

Back to the VIX... you know that if we see a move up to the 28-30 area it will be rejected and will then put in very high odds that it reverses back down hard either Friday or Monday to put in a strong rally for the ES to make the red wave 4 up.  Then the red wave 5 down should be a 5 wave drop into late next week for the final low to complete the black wave C and the entire ABC correction... which should be a Small Wave 2 I think.

The Big Picture...

After that low (assuming it reaches the FP on the SPY) the rally up into OPEX week should be very strong, but it should NOT make a new all time high.  However, it could be so strong that it makes you think it's going to breakout, but it should not happen.  It should only be the start of Small Wave 3 up, and of course it will have 5 Tiny Waves inside it.  My best guess is that it completes 5 Waves up into OPEX and then does an ABC down into the end of this month or early March for some kind of wave 2 pullback.  It's going to setup a massive wave 3 combo up that will start early March and will go non-stop into April/May where 7600+ is possible.

Have a great weekend.

The drop yesterday was a surprise to me, but it changes nothing. There still should be one more higher high next week before the drop to 6800, and possibly the 6650's into the end of February, in an ABC move. As for the short term wave count, here's what I see below...

Basically the move down from the 7043 high was an ABC for a wave 4, and we should be in a wave 5 up now, which will subdivide into 5 smaller waves. We appear to have completed the wave 1 up of it yesterday into the close, and are in the wave 2 now. It leaves a wave 3,4, and 5 up into next week to complete a bigger wave 5, and once that is done we can get the ABC down to (hopefully) the 6650's into the end of February.

Zooming out a little to see the medium term we have everything on the downside finished up by early to mid-March, as after that we should see a massive non-stop rally start that will last several months. Below is that chart.

Have a great weekend.

The market has likely bottomed for the A wave of an expected ABC decline, which will likely drag out into mid-February. There should be another pullback today or tomorrow to make a "higher low" as there's a new FP on the SPY of 677.58 that appeared after the close yesterday. I suspect the rally up from yesterdays low was a smaller degree A wave inside an ABC to make a bigger B wave up.

That B wave will probably last into early February, and we'll probably see an A up (in play now from yesterdays low), then a B down (the move to 677.58), and lastly a 5 wave move for the C wave... which ideally fills the gap on the ES around 6975. Below is a chart of the wave patterns.

As you can see the best opportunity will be around the end of this month, or first week of February, where a short for a C wave down can be taken with a known target of 660.08 on the SPY. At that point I'd look for some wave 1's up and 2's down of various degrees into the end of February to setup the explosive wave 3 up in March.

That month should be a super powerful, non-stop rally that defies logic and reason. I get the feeling that the chart of the Economist for 2026 is showing the first low in mid-February as the expected C wave down to 660.08 on the SPY. Then the rally up to new highs will be the blow off top squeeze to 7600+ into April/May. After that, the crash like drop will be the move down to retest the coming lows next month. Best guess is that it's a large A wave of some degree, and the move back up the rest of the year (like into October/November?) will be the large B wave.

Following that is the large C wave down into the end of the year. It doesn't show it taking out the early low, but again, I don't have a long enough track record of following the Economist to see if the chart is forecasting higher highs, lows, etc... or if it's just a directional thing. Maybe it's not about price at all, and only the "turns"? I just know that at some point we will see the ES fill the gap at 5339 from last year. When is unknown? Maybe it's the summer drop, or the one into the end of the year? We'll just wait and see. (no post tomorrow)

Have a great weekend.

Chop, chop and more chop. The market has been grinding its' way higher since the November low from last year with smaller pullbacks along the way. The market is in the final part of that move up, which should conclude sometime next week. Once it does we should see a pullback to the high 6600's on the ES, and it should be a higher lower then the November low from last year.

The pullback should finish into mid-February where we'll see a move back up start from, but it's likely to have some up's and down's until the first week of March to gather enough energy to start the massive squeeze up to 7600+ into April or May.

Meaning I'll only be looking for short lived moves up after the mid-February low, and will not be looking for a longer term position to take until the first week of March. Then I'll look to get long and stay long targeting the mid 7000's into April or May. Once the big squeeze starts no one will believe it and will just keep shorting as it goes higher and higher in a blow off rally for a crazy new high, which could even top at 7777 for the ritual... who knows?

I've been given a new FP on the SPY of 660.08, that came out on January 14th, 2026, so I'm pretty sure that's the downside low that's coming into mid-February. First though, we need to reach the 700 SPY level where there's a massive about of gamma volume that is acting like a magnet for the market. Since the ES is running a lot higher then the SPX/SPY now the current ratio between them would put the ES at 7063.50 when the SPY hits 700.00, so that's a slightly higher high then the current all time high of 7036.25, and should be hit next week. Then we should see the pullback to 660.08 over the coming 3-4 weeks, which would put the ES around 6659.86 (roughly).

So, in summary we should be on the look out for a new all time high next week that hits the 700 zone on the SPY, and that should be where the top is at and the pullback to the FP of 660.08 should follow into mid-February.

Have a great weekend.

A very choppy week we've had as the market finally put in a new high, but has pulled back since then. It looks like it's just burning time to setup a big squeeze up from some kind of news event or other trigger. Most likely next week will be a big rally week, but I don't know how high it's going to go? Maybe it makes it up to 7100-7200 instead of 7200-7300? I only can say that I'm expecting a strong rally up of a few hundred points before we get a good pullback into mid-February.

Basically, we need to see a big stop run on the bears, once that is done we can get a nice pullback, which could easily retest the November lows, if not deeper? I'm likely this more relaxed posting of once or twice a week as I'm not a day trader and doing daily posts is just not needed currently. Maybe at some I'll post more but for now once a week is all that is needed. Let's look at the likely wave count now...

As you can see the chart above the market is setup for a massive squeeze... "if" the wave count is correct? Of course I could be totally wrong it, but I'm still staying long and will hang in there to see what happens. The move should be a powerful squeeze that by the 15th-20th all the waves should be complete to end Large Wave 5, and that will setup a very nasty drop into mid-February. Nothing more to add.

Have a great weekend.

Going into next week we should pullback to fill a gap on the ES from 12/19 at 6895.25, which is close to the 6828 SPX level that is equal to a FP on the SPY of 680.59, so there's lots of reasons to think that will be the target low. Today should make the high of Small Wave 1 and then Small Wave 2 down plays out next week with the ideal low on the 31st, possibly Friday January 2nd. After that low we should see a non-stop rally for 3+ weeks in January. Below are my charts with the wave counts.

Have a great weekend.