The drop yesterday was a surprise to me, but it changes nothing. There still should be one more higher high next week before the drop to 6800, and possibly the 6650's into the end of February, in an ABC move. As for the short term wave count, here's what I see below...

Basically the move down from the 7043 high was an ABC for a wave 4, and we should be in a wave 5 up now, which will subdivide into 5 smaller waves. We appear to have completed the wave 1 up of it yesterday into the close, and are in the wave 2 now. It leaves a wave 3,4, and 5 up into next week to complete a bigger wave 5, and once that is done we can get the ABC down to (hopefully) the 6650's into the end of February.

Zooming out a little to see the medium term we have everything on the downside finished up by early to mid-March, as after that we should see a massive non-stop rally start that will last several months. Below is that chart.

Have a great weekend.

The market has likely bottomed for the A wave of an expected ABC decline, which will likely drag out into mid-February. There should be another pullback today or tomorrow to make a "higher low" as there's a new FP on the SPY of 677.58 that appeared after the close yesterday. I suspect the rally up from yesterdays low was a smaller degree A wave inside an ABC to make a bigger B wave up.

That B wave will probably last into early February, and we'll probably see an A up (in play now from yesterdays low), then a B down (the move to 677.58), and lastly a 5 wave move for the C wave... which ideally fills the gap on the ES around 6975. Below is a chart of the wave patterns.

As you can see the best opportunity will be around the end of this month, or first week of February, where a short for a C wave down can be taken with a known target of 660.08 on the SPY. At that point I'd look for some wave 1's up and 2's down of various degrees into the end of February to setup the explosive wave 3 up in March.

That month should be a super powerful, non-stop rally that defies logic and reason. I get the feeling that the chart of the Economist for 2026 is showing the first low in mid-February as the expected C wave down to 660.08 on the SPY. Then the rally up to new highs will be the blow off top squeeze to 7600+ into April/May. After that, the crash like drop will be the move down to retest the coming lows next month. Best guess is that it's a large A wave of some degree, and the move back up the rest of the year (like into October/November?) will be the large B wave.

Following that is the large C wave down into the end of the year. It doesn't show it taking out the early low, but again, I don't have a long enough track record of following the Economist to see if the chart is forecasting higher highs, lows, etc... or if it's just a directional thing. Maybe it's not about price at all, and only the "turns"? I just know that at some point we will see the ES fill the gap at 5339 from last year. When is unknown? Maybe it's the summer drop, or the one into the end of the year? We'll just wait and see. (no post tomorrow)

Have a great weekend.

Chop, chop and more chop. The market has been grinding its' way higher since the November low from last year with smaller pullbacks along the way. The market is in the final part of that move up, which should conclude sometime next week. Once it does we should see a pullback to the high 6600's on the ES, and it should be a higher lower then the November low from last year.

The pullback should finish into mid-February where we'll see a move back up start from, but it's likely to have some up's and down's until the first week of March to gather enough energy to start the massive squeeze up to 7600+ into April or May.

Meaning I'll only be looking for short lived moves up after the mid-February low, and will not be looking for a longer term position to take until the first week of March. Then I'll look to get long and stay long targeting the mid 7000's into April or May. Once the big squeeze starts no one will believe it and will just keep shorting as it goes higher and higher in a blow off rally for a crazy new high, which could even top at 7777 for the ritual... who knows?

I've been given a new FP on the SPY of 660.08, that came out on January 14th, 2026, so I'm pretty sure that's the downside low that's coming into mid-February. First though, we need to reach the 700 SPY level where there's a massive about of gamma volume that is acting like a magnet for the market. Since the ES is running a lot higher then the SPX/SPY now the current ratio between them would put the ES at 7063.50 when the SPY hits 700.00, so that's a slightly higher high then the current all time high of 7036.25, and should be hit next week. Then we should see the pullback to 660.08 over the coming 3-4 weeks, which would put the ES around 6659.86 (roughly).

So, in summary we should be on the look out for a new all time high next week that hits the 700 zone on the SPY, and that should be where the top is at and the pullback to the FP of 660.08 should follow into mid-February.

Have a great weekend.

A very choppy week we've had as the market finally put in a new high, but has pulled back since then. It looks like it's just burning time to setup a big squeeze up from some kind of news event or other trigger. Most likely next week will be a big rally week, but I don't know how high it's going to go? Maybe it makes it up to 7100-7200 instead of 7200-7300? I only can say that I'm expecting a strong rally up of a few hundred points before we get a good pullback into mid-February.

Basically, we need to see a big stop run on the bears, once that is done we can get a nice pullback, which could easily retest the November lows, if not deeper? I'm likely this more relaxed posting of once or twice a week as I'm not a day trader and doing daily posts is just not needed currently. Maybe at some I'll post more but for now once a week is all that is needed. Let's look at the likely wave count now...

As you can see the chart above the market is setup for a massive squeeze... "if" the wave count is correct? Of course I could be totally wrong it, but I'm still staying long and will hang in there to see what happens. The move should be a powerful squeeze that by the 15th-20th all the waves should be complete to end Large Wave 5, and that will setup a very nasty drop into mid-February. Nothing more to add.

Have a great weekend.

Going into next week we should pullback to fill a gap on the ES from 12/19 at 6895.25, which is close to the 6828 SPX level that is equal to a FP on the SPY of 680.59, so there's lots of reasons to think that will be the target low. Today should make the high of Small Wave 1 and then Small Wave 2 down plays out next week with the ideal low on the 31st, possibly Friday January 2nd. After that low we should see a non-stop rally for 3+ weeks in January. Below are my charts with the wave counts.

Have a great weekend.

As we close out the week the market hasn't really done a whole lot of anything. It's had some good intraday moves down and back up but overall it's still trading in a big sideways range. I not expecting anything to change until we get into January, and between now and then we'll likely see more confusion as the market tries to trick and trap both bulls and bears alike.

We could rise some next week but I'm still looking for another move down into the end of the month. It may or may not take out the 6771 low from yesterday... I'm not sure? If we rally up some next week could see a new high, and if that happens I'd think the pullback into the 31st would be a higher low then the 6771 low. But if we don't make a higher high next week then I'd lean toward that rally being a B wave up of some degree and a C down into the 31st for a lower low then 6771.

The low put in yesterday does appear to be a C wave from a clean ABC down from the 6932 high on the 15th, so maybe that's all there is for the wave 2 pullback? If that's the case then the 6932 high ended the wave 1 up from the 11/21 low of 6525 and we should just start carving out a series of wave 1's up and 2's down inside the larger 3 up, which would setup a breakout to start January 2nd. That's fine with me as there should still be a low into the 31st where a great long setup can happen. Of course it would be a higher low in this scenario.

If instead we get a lower low then the first ABC down to the Monday low was just an A wave and next week we get the B wave up, and finally the C down into the end of the month to end a bigger ABC down for a wave 2 down. Several possible ways this could play out be everything points to the best entry for a long, to start a big wave 3 up, is around the 31st or so. Until then I'm just waiting and watching as I'm not a day trader and I'm not interested in the chop we see each day that still has several weeks left before a trend starts.

Have great weekend.

The ES Futures has now rolled into the March, 2026 contract as the December, 2025 has ended. Of course it's a big gap up when this happens and causes the SPX Cash to be 50-60 points lower, so keep that in mind going forward. Nothing has changed as far as my thoughts go. I see see a choppy December with a slight downward bias into at least the 24th, and possibly right into the end of the month.

Usually there is a Santa rally right after Christmas but I suspect there won't be one this time around. I stay that because the cycles suggest that, and don't suggest the next big rally will start until January. We'll have to let this play out as if we get a good enough pullback into the 24th, like to a strong support level (the falling white trendline), then maybe we get some kind of move up the week after, but I still don't think it will be the typical "Santa Rally" that everyone expects.

Or maybe it goes up some and pulls back for a "higher low" into the 31st? The bottom line here is that the big squeeze rally move should not start until January, and it should be a wave 3 up where we will blow through 7000 like it wasn't even there. Currently we are just in the process of carving out a wave 2 down pullback, and that should take all month to finish. I have no interest in trying to time it and take it as the easy money will be the wave 3 up in January.

Have an blessed day.

I'm not expecting much today as while the market is waiting on the FOMC, and it might produce a good swing up or down... or both, I don't lean toward a big squeeze to 7000 now because the market is in a bearish period until next Monday from "cycles". Now, that bearish period is not something that I think is going go cause a big drop, just a pullback as I covered in yesterdays video.

Of course I could be wrong and maybe get some blow off squeeze... who knows for sure? I only know I can't trade it, but if it happens I'll be looking to short it. But... that's ONLY if it happens today after the FOMC, as if instead we do the pattern I talking about yesterday then we won't see 7000+ until after the Santa Rally starts, and it won't stop at that level at that point, so I'll only be interesting in going long the rally, not shorting it.

If nothing surprising happens today I may or may not post tomorrow (and or Friday?). Basically if there's nothing to add that hasn't already been said I could just skip posting that day. This might happen lot this month if there's nothing to add. We'll see.

Have an blessed day.

The market finally got a pullback and put in a red day, which was a much needed rest if it plans on going higher soon. It could continue down into next Monday and then make another run up to try and hit the 7000 magnet. If it does, then I'd look for the falling white trendline to be the support and likely target.

It will be around 6750 next Monday, and as long as any move up in the next day or two fails to take out the recent 6905 high the I'd say the pullback yesterday was an A wave and the move up would be the B wave, with the C wave down into the 15th. This is probably what's going to happen as I really don't expect the Fed to say anything at the meeting tomorrow that will surprise the market enough to squeeze up to new all time highs... but who's knows for sure?

That could still happen as it would shock the most traders I suspect as most are expecting the pullback to continue with last weeks 6905 high being the top of the move. And it could happen? Logically, it does look more likely to pullback from here then to stage some squeeze move.

I'll just say that I can't do much at this point but watch as we are in a choppy period, which might last all month. I'll be very interested in the expected low into Christmas as that's where I'll look to go long for the Santa Rally. Nothing more to add as it's just not very clear what's going to happen this week.

Have an blessed day.

The bulls are running out of time as there should be a pullback into the 15th but it should be short lived too. We could still see the 7000 level hit before then, as the market might be waiting on the FOMC this week to do that last squeeze before a move down. As we all know the market commonly chops around on the Monday and/or Tuesday prior to any meeting, so if it can hold this zone and not lose support they might do that squeeze after the meeting to take out the shorts?

Then a pullback into next Monday could happen from a higher level so as to keep the market in a strong uptrend and not lose critical support below. But if they don't do that squeeze by the Fed meeting then I think we won't see 7000 hit until the end of the month during the Santa Rally after Christmas. That's all I have to add as there's nothing to do but wait.

Have an blessed day.

Nothing new to add as the market continues to grind sideways without breaking out or breaking down. I still lean bullish versus bearish as the more time that goes by the more the short term overbought charts get reset back to neutral, which opens the door for one last squeeze up before a pullback starts sometime next week.

I could be completely wrong though and the market tanks, but even if that happens I doubt if it's more then a couple of hundred points. I really don' see the falling white trendline on my chart getting taken out and it's only a 100 points lower or so. But I'm sure many bears (and bulls) would love to see that happen first... then a rally to 7000+ occur. The market though is very cruel and unforgiving.

Usually it doesn't allow the bears an exit like that, and an entry for the bulls. Most of the time it keeps the bears trapped and won't allow the bulls a good pullback to get long. The more common move is a big squeeze up to hit the stops overhead on the shorts... and then it pulls back. I still think it's coming but I don't know when. Maybe today or maybe Monday, but it's close I think.

Have a great weekend.

Another day of strength for the bulls yesterday as the early pullback was bought right back up. The bull flag is mature now and could breakout any day now. Maybe today, tomorrow or even Monday? I suspect though that it will happen this week as by mid next week the bullish cycle fades and the bearish cycle come into to play and last until Christmas roughly.

But again, if we make new all time high my wave count from Monday will be toast and the pullback the next couple of weeks should be mild. If we reach 7000 this week I will take a conservative short that will be small and will only look for about a 50% pullback into the first part of the following week, which is OPEX week.

I'd expect to see a move back up into Friday the 19th though as most monthly OPEX weeks are bullish. Then one more pullback into Christmas for a test of the prior weeks low. After that of course is the Santa rally, but I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's see first if we get a breakout this week to hit 7000 or so.

Have an blessed day.

Another sideways day yesterday, which again increases the odds of a new all time high this week, and it would make my wave count fail. Yes, after this week we'd still get a pullback for 1-2 weeks, but it should not take out the recent low on 11/21 but instead would be a higher low. Why? Because the move up from that low will no longer be a B wave but a 5 wave pattern for a new high (7000).

In fact, since I still see 7600+ into April/May of next year for the final high, we could be in a wave 1 inside a 5 wave move up for a final 5th wave to that 7600 target, and the wave 1 ends around 7000 this week. The sideways chop the past few days would be a smaller degree wave 4 with the move to 7000 being the smaller degree wave 5, which would then complete a medium degree wave 1 inside a larger degree wave 5 to 7600+.

Meaning the expected ABC pullback over the next 2 weeks would be a medium wave 2, and I doubt if it goes much more then 50% from the coming 7000 high and the 6539 low on 11/21. This is all just speculation right now as I don't know yet if we are going to make a new all time high by this Friday or next Monday.

If we don't, and we instead go sideways, then I'll be open again to the bearish wave count on Monday's charts that calls for a lower low and this move up being a B wave. I just want to remain open to whatever the market is going to give me and NOT get biased to one side or the other. I exited my short yesterday for a tiny loss and even took a small long targeting 7000 this week.

I did that because of how much volume there is at the 700 SPY level on the Call side. It's like a magnet and should cause the market to rally up into it. But it must happen this week, or Monday at the latest. Otherwise we are back on the bearish wave count with the rally up just making a lower high. Keep in mind that "time" is super important here as if the bulls plan to kill that bearish wave count they MUST do the new high by Monday at the very latest. Next week the cycle flip to bearish, but again, if the bull hit 7000 then that "bearish cycle" will likely just be a 50% pullback (ABC) of the rally up from the recent low, and it will take the next 2 weeks to play out. Then comes the Santa rally.

Have an blessed day.

We did get a tiny pullback yesterday but it wasn't down to the FP on the SPY like I had hoped it would be.  Who knows for sure?  Maybe it's not a real fake print but just a late fill?  Regardless... today is the last chance for that to happen I think before one more move up to "try" to make a higher high.

I have it on my chart from yesterday as only being a lower high, as that's what happened back in 2022... but it's not an exact match for price, so it could make a higher high going into the end of this week.  There's a large amount of volume on the SPY at the 700 strike price for the calls, which means there's still a chance we could see that hit into this Friday.

The pattern basically suggests that Thursday/Friday are up days, whereas back then it made a lower high then what would be equal to last Friday. But that doesn't mean we will do the same this time around, as we could make a new all high as we are only a 100-200 points away now.

Bottom line here is that I'll be looking to short whatever price we reach into this Thursday/Friday. If for some crazy reason they do decide to hit 7000+ I'll short it hard as it will be a perfect short in my opinion.  Or if it's only a lower high I'll still short it as the pattern and cycle suggest next week we get a pullback.  I'd just love to see that last squeeze to take out all the shorts first.

In summary, the best shorting spot should be this Thursday/Friday in my opinion... no matter if it's a lower high or higher high.

Have an blessed day.

We got the 30-50 point move up on Friday as I thought was possible. I did take a short and will get another one early this week if given another good spot to take one. The rally that we had last week was very similar to the 3/17/22 to 3/30/22 rally, but not equal in "time" though. That entire decline looks similar in "pattern" as there was an ABC move down from the high on 1/4/22 to the first low on 1/24/22. Of course it's not "day for day" an exact match but it sure looks like our decline from 10/29/25 to the low on 11/21/25. Look at the charts below...

Even the about of the pullback was similar as that first ABC down in 2022 was roughly to the 23.6% Fibonacci Level when starting from the 2020 COVID low up to the 2022 high. If you start at our April 2025 low (which also was similar to the COVID crash in "pattern") and go up to the current high, then the decline we had few shy of the 23.6% level, but was close. After the big bounce that happened in 2022, which is similar to last weeks bounce, the next decline went down to make a new lower low on 2/24/22, which if we did that again I think we will be looking for roughly the 200 Day SMA around 6200.  Look at the charts below...

If the pattern remains similar we could see a quick 1-2 day pullback early this week, then a move back up for a slightly lower high this Friday then last Friday, which is like the two highs on 2/2/22 and 2/9/22. If this happens again it will be next week when we see the bigger drop, which carries into the following week as well. It could bottom right into Christmas if the pattern continues to repeat. Even the Santa rally is in that prior chart, and it would be one that fools everyone as back then it rallied from the 2/24/22 low until 3/2/22 (which could be equal to January 2nd 2026?) and the dumped for a couple of weeks to dance around the prior lows but not break them. Then a big rally back up followed, and that might be equal to a second half of January 2026 move? If it repeats February and part of March will be ugly for sure.

But I'm getting ahead of myself as while the pattern has been tracking recently it doesn't mean it will continue. We'll just have to take it week by week, and for this week I'm looking for a wave 1 down inside a C wave to play out, and a wave 2 back up. Again, that's similar to the 2022 pattern as well, whereas last weeks rally was a bigger B wave up, with the ABC down from the all time high being the bigger A wave down. We should be starting the bigger C wave down this week and end by Christmas. That entire move will be an ever larger A wave, and the rally back up in January will be a larger B wave.

So, for the short term, I see a 673.72 FP on the SPY that was put out last Friday. I'd say that will hit early this week and it will be my wave 1 down. Then we bounce into this Friday for wave 2 back up.

Have an blessed day.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving yesterday. I enjoyed it for sure. Oi, back to the market. Oddly we still haven't seen any red day for a week now where the market "paused". It's just been a grind up day after day with no way to get out if you are a trapped bear. I have to think that if the bulls plan on making a new high they need a red day.

Today would be ideal as the markets close early at 1pm EST and they could keep it as a small one. But if they decide to go up another 50 points (or whatever) they are going to exhaust themselves I think. Meaning they won't have anything left in the tank to make a new high next week. Pullbacks are healthy and if done right they get new bears to short and then those bears are fuel for the next move up.

But right now I fear they are running out of bears as a non-stop rally like this has most bears throw in the towel on shorting and then they become bulls and start taking longs. When that happens you know we won't see 7000+, or even just a slightly higher high as when everyone is long there's no more buyers to get it up higher.

So if we see another good up day today I fear will will not see a new high and will rollover next Monday to start the next leg down. If we get a decent red close then we can go higher again next week. I'd love to see 7000+ to short but without a "pause" day (slightly red) those odds go down quite a lot. If we see another nice green day today I'm going to be looking for a short.

Have a great weekend.

Well, the bulls did pause for the first couple of hours yesterday but the dip was bought and we saw the market grind higher afterwards, and into the close. Maybe today pauses some? It doesn't have too of course, as it could continue to have intraday pullbacks that reverse back up afterwards, but we should see more resistance when the falling trendline on my chart is hit today or Friday.

That will be the likely spot where bears short again I suspect. It's roughly 6820-6830 if hit today. If there's a pullback I think it will only be to backtest the 6780 zone from yesterdays high, as that's a triple top zone from 11/16 and 11/20, along with 11/25 of course. It should be support and from there we should continue higher into next week. Don't forget that Friday closes early at 1pm EST and of course we are close tomorrow.

I may or may not post on Friday.... probably not as there's no reason to do so. I think next week is up early on with a fade late in the week. I also think we top next week and start another leg down into late December, which a lower low is likely. Whether or not a new all time high is made next week is unknown, but again, if they do... the drop will be deeper.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

Short term charts are pretty overbought now (2 hour and below), so today could be a "pause" day where we might close slightly down or slightly up. But as long as it's not a big pullback it should be bought back up as the market is still in the bullish cycle period until as late as the 4th of next month. It doesn't have to go that far in time but I have to think that we should at least stay up into next week to work off some of the extreme bearish readings. Meaning it might not make a higher high, but should chop around whatever higher level it reaches for awhile before rolling over in the second week of December. Personally I think they will reach a new high to take out the stops on the bears that are shorting now, and those that have stops above the current all time high. But I don't see it reached this week... as it's likely going to drag into next week due to this week being shorten due to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Not more to add, so I'll keep this update short.

Have an blessed day.

Last week was wild with all the big swings up and down but as we enter this week of Thanksgiving, and into next week, the bulls have the ball again according to the cycles. I said last week after the surprise big drop that odds were low that the bulls would make a new high, but really that's not the case.

With so much time left the bulls could still reach the 7000+ level into next week as it's really not that many points higher when you really look at it. Bears are going to be focused on the backtest of the falling trendline of the triangle, which is an obvious target for a move back up to end and rollover from. It's also a picture perfect right shoulder for a head and shoulder pattern. But with the Fear and Greed index buried so deeply in extreme fear I just don't think it's going to be that obvious and easy. Now if the bulls spend all of this week and part of next week to just reach that zone, then yes, that's likely all she wrote for them.

But I suspect we'll see that falling trendline hit this week, and the expected pullback from it won't happen like the bears are expecting. Sure, there should be some reaction there, but I think any pullback will be only be done to trap more bears before the squeeze through it. New all time highs are still possible into next week if the bulls want them.

We could then see a negative divergence setup on the MACD's of the daily chart of the ES and SPX, and even positive divergence on the VIX if it makes a higher low. That would be the perfect trick on the bulls and bears both to hit 7000+ into late next week when the bears will finally give up and the bulls will be thinking the Santa Rally started early and 7400, 7500, or even 7600+ is coming in December. But that is the trap on those bulls as they will be fully long and all the bears will have capitulated after the new highs.

It's a sneaky setup for a large drop to 6000 or so in front of Christmas, when no one is expecting it. It happened in 2018 and it could happen again this December, and I suspect that whatever high we get into next week will remain the high for several months as after the real Santa Rally happens January should have another drop even lower. Ultimately the ES is going to have to close the gap at 5339, but that might not occur until February or March of next year. After that we should see one final blow off top rally into April or May where 7600+ is likely... then the bear market starts.

Have an blessed day.