From what I can tell yesterdays rally was a tiny C wave up inside a small wave 2, further inside a medium wave C down, inside a large wave 4 down. That's a mouth full of course, but if I'm right we'll see the start of a nasty drop today, which will be a small 3 down inside a medium C, inside large wave 4 down. It should complete by early-mid next week with a slightly lower low (50-100 points) then the October 10th low. Nothing more to add so I'll end it here.

Have a great weekend.

The market rolled over yesterday and did not put in a higher high, so it looks to me like the wave B up from the low on October 10th is finished. We should be in the wave C down now, and we most likely completed the first wave 1 inside it at the low Wednesday, with the start of the wave 2 up afterwards.

Once the wave 2 finishes we should see the wave 3 of C down... then 4 and 5 should complete that C by early next week I believe. It's continuing to unfold nicely with wave patterns. Today could start the wave 3 down of C, or the wave 2 up takes more time to complete. Possibly it subdivides into a small abc pattern and tops into Friday?

Hard too say but after that wave 2 bounce is done the wave 3 of C should produce a nasty drop. Naturally that wave 3 could subdivide into 5 smaller wave too, but there's no point at trying to figure that out now. Let's just see if it happens or not.

Have an blessed day.

A flat day yesterday as expected. Today should start the pullback but if this is a C wave down I'd only look for the wave 1 to play out with the wave 2 back up happening to the close or early tomorrow. It's setting up for a wave 3 down inside a C wave to happen on Friday, and if it double bottoms the October 10th low the wave 4 bounce should happen in the Sunday futures with Monday the 27th having the wave 5 of C to hit the stops below the prior low and then reverse hard back up.

I'd look for a rally all week if that happens, and a top into November 6th, which again... should be a higher high. How much I don't know but enough to take out the stops on bears that are likely right above the current all time high. It should be about the same as the coming low I guess, about 50-100 points to take them all out. After the stops are hit with that new higher high we should rollover for the crash wave. November 6th is a very important day, which I will explain in a future post if the market continues to track the current expected pattern.

Have an blessed day.

Ok, yesterday worked out well with a rally up to hit the stops on the bears. It's super close to a new high, but as I write this post after the close on Monday the futures are going sideways, so there's no way to know if they will make a new high or not? I don't lean that way, as I lean toward the new high being the rally going into November 6th, after a pullback to the mid-6400 zone into next Monday happening first.

But again, it's all just a best guess and you never know until after it's all over with. For now though I think we chop Tuesday without much upside, and maybe a little downside... but not much there either. The reason is the monthly VIX as the last trading day is today with it officially expiring all those monthly options at 9am EST on Wednesday, which is before the open so it can't be traded. Therefore I think "they" will keep the VIX flat or lower until after it expires, and that means the ES/SPX shouldn't do anything much today but chop.

If we make a new high, then the drop should be bigger I'd think, but assuming we don't then the drop should only take out the October 10th low by 50-100 points to hit the stops on bulls. The we rally into November 6th for (hopefully) a new higher high to kill the last bear alive. After that some kind of "event" should happen to cause a crash. I will explain more later if the current moves play out as I've forecast.

Have an blessed day.

This week I'm looking for more upside into Wednesday to get the VIX down lower as it expires Wednesday morning at the open, so Tuesday at the close is the last trading for it. Because market makers want it down, so that they don't have to pay out on the calls, we should not see the ES/SPX do much downside, (if any?) and should see more upside to take out bears currently trying to short it.

I posted a chart on it on X shortly after the open Friday as I felt my current wave count needed to be updated to one where there's more subdividing waves. That chart is below...

After Wednesday though the monthly VIX will have expired for October and therefore it can be pushed back up again, and that means down in the ES/SPX. There's still a good chance that the recent low on October 10th will be taken out into next week, and I'm not expecting a lot below it, but we could see 50-100 points below that 6540 ES low to hit all the stops on the longs.

Then we can see a face ripper into my target date of November 6th for a slightly higher high, which after that I think we could crash and fill the gap on the ES down around 5339, and that will have every bear in the world looking for the April low to get hit next. But if I'm right that won't happen and we'll turn back up in a major big squeeze from that 5339 zone, with a new high into January most likely.

As for today... up into Wednesday, but not a new high , just a stop run on the bears shorting the peaks last week.

Have an blessed day.

We rolled over yesterday to start what should be a wave 3 down inside a C wave. That wave 3 is probably going to subdivide into 5 smaller waves and with today being OPEX we could see the wave 2 bounce with yesterdays drop being the wave 1 down. If this happens we'll see the wave 3 of 3 of C down on Monday and into Tuesday where we could see the bottom of this move get hit, which I still think is around the 6400 zone.

Basically the market will want to break the low from last Friday to hit all the stops on the bulls, and after that the bears will be loaded up fully short and we should see a powerful rally back up the rest of the week. In conclusion I'm looking for a "pause" today that looks bullish but should hold support and not break it until Monday.

I only say that because today is OPEX and they might want the market to close around a certain zone to pin it for max profit of expiring options. The wave count is very bearish, and so are the technicals, which both support a bounce, but how long it holds is unknown. It might hold all day long and at the last hour rollover hard and keep going into next Monday. But I lean is that it holds all day to close the week out.

Have a great weekend.

I've modified the wave count a little as I think we are going to do part of the "My lean wave count" from yesterdays post, as market is looking like it's following that path the closest... meaning the "The crash wave count" chart now has low odds of playing out. The market could be accelerating the timeline some too as on the "My lean wave count" chart I think we could complete the larger C wave down by tomorrow or next Monday, instead of the last week of this month.

It's still the same target zone of 6400 on the ES, and should still complete the even larger wave 4 down. It will then setup the market for a powerful rally into the first week of November where we could see a higher high and complete the even larger wave 5 that everyone is looking for 7400+ to happen. I don't know if that is going to play or not?

I doubt it though as I think we'll be lucky to scratch out a slightly higher high, and the tariff wars between the US and China are getting more and more heated, and the government shutdown isn't looking likely to be resolved either. I don't think Trump is going to back down from China, and the Democrats aren't going to give an inch either. I suspect both parties are going to let the market fall apart and we won't see the Fed come in with massive QE until we are much, much lower.

Without it I just don't see a blow off top happening into early November. Assuming we drop to the 6400's in the next few days, I think the final wave 5 up will be a tough one that just uses trapped bears for fuel to keep the squeeze going. I don't think the smart money will buy, as they will most likely just wait for the double top to get hit (maybe a pierce high to take out the last bear?) where they will short the crap out of the market.

Anyway, that's all just guessing with the politics, but it does seem likely. Plus the technicals support it as the market is way more overbought on the bigger time frames and it's only going to be the shorter time frames that give the market the bounce after one more pullback. We could still see a crash happen, but not until after the last higher high. I have a good reason to think it will be on November 6th, but let's get past this week and next before I go into to much detail on it.

Have an blessed day.

So far, it looks like we are still in the smaller A wave up inside the bigger B up from yesterdays chart. I'm still looking for smaller B down to happen in the next few days, which should not take out the lows from last Friday, but should take out yesterdays low. It should be just deep enough to take out the longs from yesterdays low, which should get the bears all short looking for Fridays low to get taken out... but should not be. The chart below is what I'm think...

Next week is the tricky part, as if we only make a lower high for the smaller C way inside the bigger B wave up then we should have the bigger C wave down the following week to ideally the 6400 zone, and that will complete a bigger wave 4, and setup the market for a very large rally for the bigger wave 5 (like 7400+).

But, if instead the rally up next week makes a higher high (like between the 20th-22nd or so) then there's another wave count in play. That wave count is below...

As you can see it's much more bearish as that last rally up will then become the final 5th wave, instead of one that takes the market to 7400+, which should happen if the prior chart plays out. Why? Because if the wave 4 down takes more time to form and bottoms around 6400 or so, like into the end of the month, there will have been enough "time" pass by to allow the overbought charts to get reset enough to start a powerful, long lasting rally. But if you shorten the time for the bigger wave 4 down, by making it complete in one day last Friday at that low, and then you go make a higher high into mid next week to complete the bigger wave 5 up, there won't be enough "time" passed to reset the overbought charts.

So the market will then be ripe for scary crash drop to happen with some "event" that happens and it gets the blame for the crash, but it will be all in the technicals and cycles. Again, the cycles are bullish the second half of October and bearish as we go into November. They are only a "guideline" an to where the pressure it at. Meaning, it can go up in a bearish cycle or down in a bullish one, but when they are at odds neither move will be large. However, if you are in a bullish cycle, with the market going up, and techincals support it, the move can be explosive. Same thing during a bearish cycle, as if the market is in one, and it's going down, and it has bearish technicals, you can see very large drops.

So where are we now? We are a neutral cycle this week, but next week and the week after it bullish, and then late October, into late November is a bearish cycle. What about the technicals? I think everyone knows we are super overbought on the bigger time frames, like the daily and weekly, but short term we are oversold. This suggests chop this week as short term and long term cycles oppose each other, and the cycles are neutral now as the are leaving the bearish period and entering the bullish period.

To me, this suggests a strong rally next week to a new higher high is possible as we enter the bullish cycle and technicals will probably setup some kind of positive divergence on their shorter term MACD's and RSI's to support a strong move. Basically, a wave 3 or C up has the best odds of playing out next week, but problem the bulls have is that if they go too fast (meaning they make a new higher high) they will exhaust themselves right as they go into the end of the month, where the bullish cycle starts to end and the bearish cycle comes back again as November rolls around. That's not good for the bulls as they really should take more time to reset overbought charts by breaking the wave 4 down into an ABC pattern that puts in a lower low into the last week of this month around the 6400 zone.

If they do that they can get the short term charts oversold enough to go into the bearish cycle of November as already reset enough... meaning they will avoid a crash. They will fight to go up in November against that bearish cycle, but they could carve out a wave 1 up and 2 down inside a bigger wave 5 up, which the wave 3 up could happen in December and be supported by the bullish period in the last half the month.

In summery, the bulls should NOT put in a new high in the next week or so as that will take out all the shorts that they need right now to keep the market from crashing. If you see a new high happen I'll be looking for a much bigger drop to play out. If they keep the shorts in the market by NOT making a higher high, the bulls can control the decline and support in the 6400 zone should hold.

Have an blessed day.

The market held its' gains yesterday from the strong bounce, but there's still technical damage done, so more time will be needed to decide on whether or not the market is going to drop hard or base and rally hard. I still lean toward a lot more upside because the cycles are still in a bullish period and just don't favor a crash.

I don't think it's straight up from here of course, as we should see a retest of the lows, maybe a couple of retests? I think we will see the first retest later this week, and if it breaks we'll probably flush on down to the 6400's, and ironically there's a FP on the SPY of 640.44, which could be the low? However, this coming first retest may hold as well, and just put in a higher low or double bottom.

If that happens (it's my lean) then we'll see another strong bounce like yesterdays rally into next week, and then another retest of the low that will likely get taken out on that hit and go for the 6400's (and the FP). After that though I think we start the real rally back up that will taken out the current all time highs. I'd call that move up the start of some wave 3 up inside the final larger wave 5. But for now I think we go into a "big swing mode" where we drop again 2 more times and rally 2 more times... then the last one starts the real move up. If I'm wrong I'll be looking for the bearish wave count I covered on Mondays update, but I'm just not feeling it.

Have an blessed day.

WOW! I really wasn't expecting that kind of drop on Friday.  At this point we are not likely in Medium Wave 2 down anymore and have probably started that big wave 4 to 6000 that everyone is looking for, which I'll call Large wave 4.   I had hoped for a blow off rally into early November where we could see a crash happen, but that's looking less likely now.

This current drop has cut through too many support levels most likely, so while it's still possible to see the blow off top into November the odds are much less.  Instead, we should continue lower to the 23.6% zone first, which is big horizontal support in the 6370-6440 ES area.  That should end the A wave inside the Large Wave 4 down.  This should happen this week if we are truly topped for now with Large Wave 3 at the 6812.25 recent high?

I had given up hope on Large Wave 4 as the market just keep going and going and going.  I just figured I miss counted the waves some how and that it was some kind of choppy sideways pattern that already complete.  But it looks like we are back on track with what I posted on September 3rd.  Here's that old chart below...

Now I don't think we are going straight down as shown in that chart because the bearish period has passed for that to play out like that.  We are still going to have a super bullish period during the second half of October, which if we were to bottom around Fridays low the door would still be open for a blow off squeeze into early November where the bearish period will show up.

But, assuming we are in Large Wave 4 down now, and that we hit the 23.6% Fibonacci area this week (call it the low 6300's), then I think that will complete an A wave down inside an ABC for Large Wave 4 down.  However, it's going to be super tricky as there no way we will go straight to the 6000 zone with the super bullish period coming up the next few weeks.  Most likely we will see a long drawn out B wave up into early November that subdivides into an ABC with 5 waves in the A, 3 in the B, and 5 in the C.  In fact it could go all the way back up to put in what looks like a double top.  Below is a possible wave count...

This more complex move is more likely to happen now because of the cycles that just are not bearish, but instead are bullish for the second half of October.  The straight down type move could really only happen during a bearish cycle, which will show up in November.  This kind of move shown in the chart above will trick everyone thinking we are off to new all time highs when we retrace back up to "almost a double top" around the end of this month or early next.

But since November has a bearish cycle it's not likely going to just blast off to the moon like everyone thinks it will.  Instead we'll probably see a nasty Medium Wave C down inside Large Wave 4 that makes all the bulls puke and give up.  But then it will bottom into the 6000 zone and from there we'll see the big blast off into next year.

The Super Bearish Count...

However, my worry is still the same... everyone is looking for that 6000 zone for a wave 4 (of some larger degree), and from there we start the massive rally up to 7400 and beyond.  What if that 6000 zone is the bull trap area?  Maybe everyone goes long there?  It's so obvious that maybe it doesn't hold?  I know this sounds crazy but I think a lot of people have forgot about the two gaps on the ES, and they "rarely" happen on the futures, so they will be filled at some point... why not do it during this drop?

With November being a bearish month I have to be open to the idea that those gaps will get filled.  There's one at 5715.25 on May 9th, 2025 and the lowest one on April 22nd, 2025, which is at 5339.25... and let's not forget about the plans the government has to inject massive QE into the market at some point.  If they wait until those gaps are filled they will be able to avoid a crash in 2026 and can get another huge rally instead.  Forget about 7400 as if we hit 5300 we'll reach 8000 or more... it will be a crazy rally with an extreme high.

Anyway, that's just something to think about in the coming weeks as the market unfolds doing what it does best... trick bulls and bears alike.  Let's just remember this when we get back up to a double top later this month and everyone is all bulled up again.

Have an blessed day.

We might have completed Medium Wave 1 and started Medium Wave 2 down yesterday. If so, it could have bottomed for the A wave yesterday and will do the B wave up today. Then the C wave down should end by Monday or Tuesday I suspect, which would complete Medium Wave 2 down and setup the market for a huge squeeze for Medium Wave 3, and it might get started by late Tuesday or Wednesday.

I would think that some kind of positive news will come out next week to get that rally started. I know that many are looking for a big drop now, but the cycles are not bearish currently, and they will be super bullish during the second half of this month. I hate to say it but I think "they" (deep state?) are planning a massive drop in November, but they first want to get a massive high.

It should be so powerful that every bear will flip to becoming a bull and we'll see "extreme greed" on the Fear and Greed index. Now I hope I'm wrong on the "event" for the crash that will follow the massive rally up to a crazy top, but I fear it will happen. What you ask? A nuke going off somewhere in the world (False Flag) to get a war started.

When you ask? November 6th is my answer. I'll explain why in a future post if we get this massive rally into the end of this month. For now, just keep that date in mind. As for the short term, I think we are in a B wave up today inside Medium Wave 4 down, which the C wave down to complete it should happen Monday or Tuesday.

Have a great weekend.

Grind, grind, grind... the market continues to defy odds as it refuses go down. This doesn't surprise me as we are not in a bearish period, but a bullish one with the strongest part of the cycle starting in the second half of this month, so no amount of overbought technicals are going to work to cause a big move down.

Yes, we can (and should) still get another pullback before the big rally starts, which will likely happen next week some time. Between now and OPEX though we will probably just grind more to the upside and then have a "one day wonder" pullback that quickly gets bought up, which shouldn't be more then 100-200 points at most. I don't think we are going to see any large crash like drop until we first see the blow off top. I know that many people, including myself, have been looking for a wave 4 pullback to the 200 SMA and/or the 38.2% Fibonacci Level, but I don't see it anymore.

That window of time has passed in my opinion, and if everyone is expecting it you know it won't happen. The Fear and Greed Index is going to have to get buried into the "Extreme Greed" area before we top and today it's just "Neutral". When this market blows passed the low 7000's (like 7400+) we'll see massive greed, and if the market does this into the end of this month or early November no one will expect a crash afterward. Just my two cents.

Have an blessed day.

Yesterdays pullback was likely the Small Wave 4 on my chart posted Monday and Tuesday. When it ends (probably already has, but could unfold in an ABC?) we should start Small Wave 5 up inside Medium Wave 1, and I suspect that will end sometime next week, as it's OPEX and they are usually bullish. Now, it could end early in the week or late in the week, I'm not sure? But if reaches say 6900 or so, then the next pullback should be Medium Wave 2 down, and it might be 100-200 points.

I'm not sure about when or "if" it happens, but if it does it should make the bears think the top is in, and the crash is starting. Therefore we could see it happen into the end of next week so that everyone will be calling for the following week to be a big down one. But it should only be a bear trap, which will be used for the final rally up to 7400+ into early November, which will be Medium Wave 3, 4, and 5.

These wave counts are just my best guess of course, as the timing of the dates are really the most important as they relate to cycle work. My expected date for the final high is on November 5th, or 6th, and if we reach 7400+ I think the door will be open for a crash afterwards.

Have an blessed day.

The ES got close to a new high yesterday, but stopped just shy of one. It's possible that finished Tiny Wave 5, inside Small Wave 3 at that lower high? If so, we could see a small pullback for Small Wave 4, which might retest the 6750 zone. If that happens we should see it hold and another push up for Small Wave 5 inside Medium Wave 1.

That push up might reach 6850-6900 to end Medium Wave 1 up. I could see it happen into late this week. Then we could see a choppy ABC pullback for Medium Wave 2 into OPEX, or the first few days of the week after OPEX. It's from that point that I'd expect to see a strong rally start for Medium Wave 3, where we could reach 7400+ into early November. This big rally should be super powerful and just kill the last bear that will short the entire rally up. If I'm right we'll crash in November.

Have an blessed day.

We reached the 6800 level last Friday, so that level of resistance should produce a pullback of some degree. The problem is that the bearish window of time has passed now and we are entering a bullish window. Therefore any decline we get this week is likely to be small and probably a "1 day wonder". Unless some unknown event happens I don't see more then 2-3% (at the most), and it should happen early this week (if it's going to happen?).

The last half of this month is very bullish from prior cycles, so I'd look for it to produce the strongest move up, like a wave 3 inside a wave 5 or something. Basically after OPEX on the 17th we could see an explosive rally that takes us into the first week of November where a significant top could appear. We could see 7400+ into that period, and if we do reach those insane levels the market will be ripe for a crash in November.

In the short term we could see the market carve out a wave 1 and 2 of the bigger wave 5, into OPEX next week. As for today I don't really have any thoughts about it. All wave 1's and 2's are hard to figure out the day to day movement. If one was interested in catching a wave 3 up I think we'll see it after OPEX.

Have an blessed day.

The bearish window of time is ending now from cycle work. It could carry into Monday or Tuesday but after that it's very bullish from prior cycles. We could start the big move up to 7400+, and if we don't get a good pullback in the next few days (seems very unlikely), we could see those highs hit going into November. At this point, with time running out for the bears, I don't see any more then a 100-200 point pullback at the most. We are likely inside some kind of wave 3 up now, inside the final wave 5, which started at the 9/25 recent low. So "if" get a pullback in the next day or two that low should not be taken out.

Have a great weekend.

Well, we have new all time highs now, so it's not looking good for a pullback. I thought we could see some kind of move down, like maybe to the 640.44 FP, but it's not looking likely right now. The more the market goes in a sideways range the more the base forms and that leads to a breakout like we had yesterday.

Maybe it's a fake breakout, but it's not looking good for the bears now. I have now way of knowing if the Fed's have put QE into the market yet or not, but if they haven't then we could still see some kind of small pullback soon. I really can't get bearish here when I know the Fed is either already putting QE in the market or will do so soon.

If the bears get any pullback it might be just a 1-2 day wonder and will be bought up by the bulls that have missed this rally. Nothing else to add here, so I'll keep this update short. Next resistance is around the 6800-6820 zone that I've been talking about for quite awhile. That could be where we see the only pullback before the massive squeeze.

Have an blessed day.

Still in the middle of nowhere as the market looks like it's still in a B wave up with the A down from the all time high last week. It could breakout and do a stop run to take out the shorts to finally hit the 6800 ES level, and then rollover. And event could cause that fast squeeze, which is less then a 100 points from the the chop zone the market was at yesterday. Cracks in the market are showing up though, as covered in the video below...

I still don't know what the plan is... crash it from here and hold the 666 ritual on the SPY, and then inject massive QE at some point during the decline. But will that be a crash, or just a 10% or so correction? If they do that then we could see the 6000 zone hit (maybe the 588.79 FP?), and that's where they bring in QE to get the market squeezing hard for the last mega rally to 7400+ over the next few months.

If they do that they will shoot all their bullets and won't be able to stop the move down that will follow after the market finally exhaust itself from that last move. Who knows how high it could go? It might reach 7600, or 7700... and the top could drag into early 2026. I don't have any upside FP's for targets up there, but it's very possible if the massive QE covered in the video's I've posted the last few days actually come true. I mean, they don't have to let it decline any really.

They could chop all week to form a nice base and the launch the QE next week to start the big squeeze. The only thing that suggests we could get a good correction first (not a crash) is the 666 ritual. In 2009 the SPX bottomed there and never looked back as it rallied for years afterwards, so the 666 SPY closing price could be used to market a very important high before a crash drop (well over 10%... like 20%, 30% or more?), and then they put in the QE and we skip the bear market in 2026 as if we reach 30% or more in a drop this year the market will reset and can go up for several years before another crash like drop will happen. Then we'd see 10,000+ on the SPX/ES... who knows for sure? I'm just as lost on the next big move as everyone else. Only the insiders know where it's going, and unfortunately I'm not one of them.

Have an blessed day.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market still hasn't decided to make the next move. It's clearly waiting on something... probably the government shutdown news. I'm only leaning toward a quick pullback to the 640.44 FP on the SPY at this point, and then another big squeeze up in the market.

Another video I found is also talking about the possible injection of QE coming into the market soon. That video is below...

That's 2 different people talking about QE coming soon, and then we still have money coming into the market from oversea due to fear of a war and having their accounts frozen by the government. It's just looking more and more like we will chop this week to form a base before the next big squeeze higher.

We'll be lucky to get any good pullback to get long at from the looks of it. But with some events this week that could rattle the market we might still get a big one day drop of a few hundred points... who knows for sure? The big problem is that we don't know "when" this QE is going to be put into the market. Just like I said yesterday, they could put the money into the market to prevent any large decline, or let it tank big first and then put the QE at the bottom. Very hard to figure out here.

Have an blessed day.

The market is getting short term oversold, but should have another push lower before any good bounce. There's still a chance we haven't topped yet. Yes, I know we had a ritual number high on the SPY with the 666 close last week, which could be equal to the 666 low in March of 2009, but without some "event" to cause a sharp drop to break support the market might go back up higher again.

I watched a video yesterday that spoke about the Fed preparing for a large QE injection by buying long term bonds to keep the interest on them stable. What I don't know is... "do they plan on doing that to create the last big squeeze to 7400+?", or "are they preparing to do that after the crash at the bottom of the market?" If the QE is to fuel the last leg up from here we should know this week as the pullback will not happen this week that many are hoping for, and instead it will hold support.

Quite frankly this market is so heavily manipulated that it seems impossible to trade it. Every pullback we get is stopped magically just at support that if broken a very large drop would follow.   Also, let's not forget the common pattern that the market does around the end of each month, or the beginning... which is that it makes a "turn".

So if we hold support into tomorrow, and/or into the first then sadly I have to be open for the mega squeeze to happen the rest of this month, which is going into a low.  If we go up into tomorrow. Wednesday, or even Thursday, and put in a high (could be higher higher or lower) then we could be in a B wave up with a C down to follow.  At that point I'd be looking for the 6400 zone into next week.

I can't make the market do anything, and just have to be open to change if the does. Meaning... I don't think 6800 will be the high and hold the next move up if we see QE quietly come into the market, and instead I would have to think the 6756 high (ES) was "close enough"... meaning that rally was supposed to hit 6800 on that run but it failed on that run up, so it could be off the table now?  Or we hit it mid-week and the drop.

For any big breakout though I'd want to pullback one more time early this week to bottom around support and chop there all week to "base" before starting that next big squeeze.  Currently the market is looking more like the opposite will happen and we will rally up into mid-week, and that will open the door for a C wave down (even if we see a slightly higher high... 6800?).

Today and tomorrow should give us the next direction. If we chop, pullback small, and hold support (6600's) then short term charts will get oversold and I'll have to give up on the crash and look for the next big rally to start next week (Note: I don't lean this way, but have to cover it as "possible").

The market has been selling off in front of the government shutdown fears on the 30th, but that might not be enough to cause a crash.  It might take something else to cause it... who knows for sure what will be blamed?  The point here is that everything is a little too bearish with talks of crashes on social media, and we didn't get some big gap down this morning, so I'm losing my mega bearish bias and just focusing again on the technicals.

Yes, we could still see a nice correction in October, but not 50%... which would be a crash move.  It might be 10-20%, I don't know, but it should setup the next and final move up for the 5th wave, and then the crash can happen.  If we see at least a 10% correction then that final high should push out in time into 2026.

In summary... Plan A is that we continue higher into mid-week to make a B wave, leaving a C down to unfold into next week with 6400 minimum as a likely target (maybe more).  Plan B is that we will end some kind of medium (or larger?) degree wave 4 down with one more small pullback this week to complete the smaller 5 wave decline, which should retest the lows and build a base to launch the next big rally up next week (a larger degree wave 5?) that will reach 7400+ into early November.

One of the two plans should unfold here and if it's Plan A then the C down will be much welcomed and should be perfect to get a great long for the last wave 5 up into November, possibly December for the blow off top (depending on how deep of course as the deeper the pullback the more time will be needed for the last rally up).

Have an blessed day.