Just a hair until the July high now on the ES, so it looks likely that it will pierce through it to run some stops.  But I must point out that the market is still waiting on the FOMC tomorrow so we should not get any big moves until then.

And speaking of the meeting, the herd is expecting a 0.25 rate cut with a possibility of it being 0.50, which is part of the run up into it as people front ran the rumor.  It smells of a trap to me as if the masses all think the same thing what happens if they are wrong?  I mean... what if they don't do any rate cut, or cut more then 0.50?  I'm simply trying to take the other side of the herd and something is off here in my opinion.

Let's not forget the short term technicals that are now overbought with the weekly chart bearishly aligned and pointing down.  The daily is mixed so it's not giving any clues, which means it's just the short term right now and the weekly chart that is in focus.

Nothing really to do right now as we wait on the Fed tomorrow.  It's very possible that it will be a "sell the news" event.

Have a blessed day.

We are up against resistance from the falling white trendline and the horizontal prior highs around 5660-5670, so there's not much to do right now but wait until the FOMC this Wednesday and see where we are at. Too me, if we are still up in this range, meaning we don't pullback much, I have to think it's a sell the news event. If we pullback in front of it, to say 5550 or lower, then I'd look for some last rally into this Friday to attempt to make a new high again... but I really don't think we will get through it.

I feel like this market is setting up for a surprise crash like drop starting next week that no one will see coming. Others think we'll top out into mid-October but I just don't see it. I could be wrong but I think a big surprise is coming, and well before the November election. Not much more to add at this point as we wait on the FOMC.

Have a blessed day.

Moving up as expected, but we are getting close to major resistance again. We should NOT get through it on the first attempt, and we might not ever get through... who knows for sure? I move focused on "when" then "price", and I still think that we will have a last squeeze up after the FOMC next Wednesday. The price isn't something I can forecast.

Short term though the charts are getting extended on the upside, so while many Friday's have that bullish late day move it might get skipped today? Then next Monday and/or Tuesday is where I'd expect to see some kind of pullback in front of the FOMC. After the meeting though I think we get a squeeze that could pierce the current all time high, or fall shy a little and lure everyone into thinking the bottom is in.

But the technicals just don't support it from what I see. We could have some surprise event over the weekend of the 21st/22nd that would cause a "gap down and go" move... like a dollar revaluation possibly? I don't know what the event will be but something big is very likely to happen before the election, and I think it starts the week of the 23rd.

Have a great weekend.

P.S.  A friend sent me this video this morning...

While I can't disagree I tend to think we look like 2011.  Here's the charts...

The 2011 Chart...

The 2024 Chart...

We got the pullback I was looking for yesterday, which turned out to be a higher low, which is fine for a truncated 5th wave down inside wave 1 down, inside wave C down. While the squeeze up afterwards looks and feels like a wave 3 or C (and it could be?) I lean toward it just being wave A up inside 2 up of C down. Now... if this wave count is correct then this wave A up should have a B down at some point in the next few days. Or it goes sideways for a day or two, which will also qualify as a B wave pullback. Then next week we get the C wave up inside wave 2 up of wave C down. Here's that wave count, which again is called my Alternative Wave Count.

Now my Main Wave Count is pretty similar except that a new all time high would happen into the end of next week. The wave count would change a little but the end result would still be a large crash like drop would follow later this month. If a new high is made the C wave drop would just be delayed until October and the A wave would happen the week of the 23rd, which would likely bottom at the end of the month where we'd get a B wave up for several days around the first of October. It would then have the large crash like drop into the middle of the month or so. Here's that wave count.

While I'm still labeling the lower high scenario as the Alternative Wave Count, which means my lean is for a new all time high for the Main Wave Count, I can't overlook the 666 code that suggests the high is in now... at least for the SPX cash. Maybe the ES futures makes a slightly higher high but the cash doesn't? That's possible for sure. But either wave count points to a high at the end of next week.

Have a blessed day.

We could see some movement today as the CPI is out, so that could move it up or down. Then tomorrow we have the jobs number, which again could move the market. I don't have any foresight on which way it will go but I still think we'll have one more pullback before a rally into next Friday. My guess is that we are choppy until next Wednesday when the FOMC happens. So we might do some wave A up and B down in front of it and the C up happens afterwards, which would complete wave 2 up inside C down. That's all I see for now.

Have a blessed day.

A lot of nothing yesterday, which is to be expected. There's not much to add here as we could retest the low again, meaning last Friday was some small degree of a wave 3 and yesterday was a wave 4 bounce. If that's correct then we could see another drop for a wave 5 to finish this leg down, and then we rally next week for that wave 2 up inside wave C down.

Do we have to have another move down first? No, it could have been finished last week but usually there's a retest of the low for at least a higher high but usually a slightly lower low. Either way there's nothing to do in my opinion until the end of next week where I think we'll see the best short of our lifetime.

If the market crashes the week of 9/23 into October no one will see it coming but the insiders. Whether or not we do a reset in the currency is unknown but there's a lot of technical reasons to suggest a nasty drop too. Below is another video from Bo Polny that again points to that week. I see in the technicals, so something is coming...

Have a blessed day.

Today I'm going to go over the possibility that the market could have already topped. I do not lean this way though as the prior patterns and technicals really don't support it, but I'll cover it anyway. Let's look a the chart below...

Now while that chart does have a lot of things that seem to align up with the January 2022 high I want to go a little deeper and look at other things that point to another higher high coming after we get a lower low, double bottom, or higher low then the August 5th 2024 low... but the large "crash like" drop that could play out in October or November would be delayed until a new high happens first. Meaning we'd have another rally up to higher high again before we rollover for that "crash style" drop. Let's examine the chart below...

One of the biggest things that supports this is the fact that we are no where near the 200 day simple moving average currently, which back in February of 2022 that drop for the smaller wave 3 (and the smaller wave 1) was under the 200 SMA. When I study that weekly chart of the past we currently appear to be similar to the 12/15/21-12/20/21 pullback. While the market never repeats exacts the patterns do "rhyme" and I tend to think that's where we are right now. If so, then we have one more higher high coming before we drop like 2022 did.

Now let's look at another interesting clue on the monthly chart below...

Again, while the market never repeats exactly the technicals still suggest to me that there's one more higher high coming before we start a much larger drop, which could be similar to 2022 or follow some other prior correction like 2020 or 2018 even. That's too hard to forecast, so let's just focus on the short term for now.

Lastly let's look at the weekly chart below...

When you examine the daily, weekly and monthly chart all the technicals point to another recession coming soon in the market, which should carry into early 2025 from everything I can see. Only another fast crash like 2020 prevent the first quarter of 2025 from being bearish as otherwise this market is going to need 4-6 months to cool down the very overbought conditions on the monthly and weekly charts.

Have great weekend.

We got pretty much what I expected yesterday... chop. I still don't see anything bullish on the short term as the weekly chart is certainly in favor of going lower, and the daily chart could go deeper too. But price really isn't something that is easy to forecast. The technicals just suggests that this market isn't oversold enough to start a strong rally up to new all time highs again.

It looks like it should drag out into next week from what I see, but that doesn't mean it's going to go a lot lower. It just means that the upside rallies should not break the prior lower highs in that 5650-5670 zone. So if we get a decent rally up this Friday I don't see that zone breaking as it's strong resistance right now.

And on the downside there shouldn't be much left for today because the short term charts are getting close to turning back up from being oversold. I think we get some more weakness today but by Friday we rally up higher to try and hit the 5650-5670 zone. It might drag into next Monday but if it happens I'd still be bearish and look for another move lower later into next week. Because the bearish period has so much "time" left I do think we'll get some kind of ABC down before we end my wave 4, which will setup OPEX week for the start of wave 5 up.

Have a blessed day.

Boy, when the market decides it's ready for a pullback it really delivers. I was looking for yesterdays move to be drawn out over 3-5 days as that's the period of expected weakness, but yesterday was a nasty drop and has pretty much hit my target zone.

So, with more "time" left the market could go lower, but we are oversold on the short term. So I suspect there is little left on the downside before a bounce, but we might not see the low for this move until this Friday or early next week when this weakness people ends. If yesterday was an A wave then we should have a B up start soon, like possibly today. Many B waves are drawn out in time and full of traps for bulls and bears both, so it could last into this Friday?

If so then I'd look for the C down to happen into early next week to complete the wave 4, and it could drag out into next Thursday if it wants to fool the most. There's a lot of "time" left for this bearish window, and while it should be finished by next Monday or Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked to see it linger into Thursday. I don't have a target for the low but with so much time left I have to think we could reach 5400, which is roughly the 50% retrace level.

On another note, I want to put this out there as it just came to my mind yesterday. I was just thinking about those 2 Yahoo FP's from March and April this year, which were point to the 483 on the SPY. It reminded me of the 2018 FP that I found on February 27th, which was an upside fake print then. It took until September 20th of that year before it was hit, and it pierced by just 4 cents on the SPY.

Here's that old chart...

So what if that Yahoo downside FP takes about the same amount of time to get hit? It was roughly 7 months (205 days to be exact), so what is 205 days from the first FP on March 1st, 2024? It is September 22nd, 2024, which if I'm wrong on this pullback being just a small one before a larger rally (meaning we keep dropping), I'm going to be looking for that 483 FP to get hit around that date.

I don't expect this pattern to repeat though as I have NO prior history of such things happening. But the FP's "do" get hit at some point in time. So for now I'm just sticking with a small pullback and then another rally up into the end of this month or earlier October. Everything looks to me like we'll drop hard into the election, and if we get up to "just under 6000" prior to then, a drop to hit the FP on the SPY would be a very nice drop and totally possible. Just food for thought.

Have a blessed day.

I hope everyone had a good holiday weekend... I know I did. I enjoyed just taking a nap on my swing on the porch was the hot weather has broke and it was pretty comfortable outside in the shade. Moving on... this week will be a short one since the market was closed yesterday.

We did not breakout and make a new all time high into the end of the month but we did close out near the higher range, and I've pointed out many time that the market will commonly produce "turns" around the end of any given month. Since we were up near a high it suggests we will turn down this week, but I still don't think we are ready for a big drop. Most likely we'll just see the right shoulder created that I've talked about many times last week as likely.

I still think a new all time high is coming before the bigger drop, so if we get a pullback this week it's likely just a buying opportunity before another rally into mid-late September. It's very possible that we reach my FET on SPX and/or ES before we finish this strong multi-month rally. In fact, it's looking like we could bottom for that bigger drop in late October right before the November election.  Here's a chart...

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday almost broke though the falling white trendline but it held again, so change in the forecast. However, I do want to point out that between now and Sunday (in the futures), if we make a higher high on the DOW and SPX (I don't think the NDX can do it), then we will likely have topped as this is a turn window. But it requires a new high to trigger.

I don't think it will but it certainly could happen, and if it does I'd look for a pullback next week for the first leg down and a rally back up into the 18th for a lower high (the B wave?), and then the nasty C wave down afterwards. If this happens I'll adjust but right now it's looking like we'll breakout early next week and skip the "end of the month" turn window. Not much else to say, so have a great 3 day holiday weekend.

Have a blessed day.

No breakout from NVDA yesterday so it's looking like the market is going to put in a low into this coming 3 day holiday weekend. That's perfect for a medium wave 4, inside a large wave 5 up. Next week I'd expect to see medium wave 5 up start, inside large wave 5, and hopefully that takes us into mid-September where we put in some final top before we drop hard into the election. Nothing more to add as we close out this week. Everything points to a breakout next week. We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

Since there's nothing going on but chop I want to cover something else this morning, that I just find interesting. It's on the SPX chart and it's a rising white trendline from the 1929 high to the 2000 high, which is shown below...

Notice how close we got to hitting it at the 2022 high, which fell shy by about 300 points but looks really close when you zoom out on the monthly chart. Now guess what? We are again around 300 points or so shy from hitting it, so it's possible that they will hit this this time around. The first half of September is very bullish, so if there's ever a time for them to juice the market it will be during this period.

The bullish pattern is there, and still forming as we go into the end of this month, so all the bulls have to do is to keep holding the support zone until they get the right spark to breakout. That could be any day now, but it certainly should do it next week after Labor Day. Below is a close up chart of that same rising white trendline...

Notice that my Fibonnaci Extension Target (FET) is at 5982.39, and the rising white trendline will be in that zone into mid-September. Maybe it's all too obvious but it sure looks like we are going to top out into the September 18th FOMC meeting.

Have a blessed day.

Not much to add as the market continues to build a sideways base under the falling white trendline. It could breakout as it's technically forming a bull flag or even a "cup and handle" pattern. Both are bullish of course but I still lean toward a pullback, which is based a lot on the fact that early to mid-September is very bullish from the Seasonality Chart, so I think we rally nicely next week, which suggests this week should pullback... or go sideways more to further build that bull flag.

Either is fine I think as both pattern will allow one more move up into the FOMC in September. Again, shorting here is not wise as while we might pullback we could also go sideways. Better to wait for the last rally up to short or (if we get a decent pullback?) go long on a good move down.

P.S.  NVIDIA earnings are out Wednesday so that should be a market mover.  Will it be the pullback I'd like to see, or a breakout to new highs?  We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

Last week I covered the wave count that we should be in "if" we don't make another higher high, but today I'm going to cover what the wave count should be if we are going to make a new high. Let's look at it below...

It was bugging me for a long time that the A wave down into the 8/5 low only had 3 waves inside it, and most A and C waves have 5 waves inside them, not 3... so this new wave count makes more sense because wave 2's and 4's usually have 3 waves inside them, and with this new labeling as that decline being a large wave 4 it fits perfect with the 3 medium waves inside it that make the ABC.

Next let's look at technicals and patterns to see if there's some more supporting prior history that could project the future.  Below is the daily chart from the last move up into the 2021-2022 top as that's what it looks the most like right now.

Now does that look like the current daily chart?  I think it does, and while they never make a perfect repeat in time or price the overall pattern and prior position of the MACD's and RSI look very close to where we are today.  That chart is below...

Interestingly the Seasonality Chart has a strong move up the first half of September, which would also line up with the last wave up to complete the large wave 5 and a new all time high.

Now let's not forget that we have another FOMC Meeting on September 17-September 18, and many others are predicting the Fed will do a cut, or say they are going to do one soon.  History tells us that when the Fed's cut rates after the market has been rallying up during rates of increase the market always tanks.

You might think that cutting rates would fuel another strong rally higher but that's not what history shows.  It shows the market rolling over shortly after rates are cut, and when you add those high odds of that happening at this next meeting, and prior patterns similar to late 2021, plus MACD's and RSI's that are similar, you have the makings of an important top and big drop afterwards.

Looking at the weekly chart above, it too is getting weaker on the MACD's and close to overbought again on the RSI... while making a triple negative divergence.  And let's not forget that many of the big firms, banks, brokers, fortune 500 companies, etc... end their tax year at the end of the 3rd quarter, which is September 30th.  That's another reason to expect them to sell out their longs to close out their profit for this tax year.  It's a common reason that many big drops happen into October of any given year.

Have a blessed day.

I didn't do a post yesterday as there wasn't anything to add, but we did finally get a pullback started, so assuming the current high holds (and I think it will) we should start a decline into next week. Ideally it unfolds in 5 waves so that it's my wave 1 inside a C wave down. The zone to look at is the 5500 area, down to as low as the 5400 zone. Somewhere in that area is where I would expect to see this first pullback end at. Then an ABC up into the first week of September for the wave 2 in the C down.

That "squeeze" could hit the falling white trendline, and if it does, it will look super bullish to everyone as the pullback will be the "right shoulder". I covered all of that on my update from Tuesday, August 21st 2024, and so far we are looking good for following that path. As for today I don't have much to add as we could drift a little lower in the first half of the day and then do the typical bounce into the close.

Meaning, I don't think we'll drop too much deeper today as most likely that will be saved for next week. For me there's nothing to do but wait for the August 30th-September 4th period to look for that last squeeze up, as that should be the ideal short.

Have a great weekend.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday as bulls take a breather. A pullback of some degree is near and could start anytime now. But the most important period is around the Labor Day weekend where an important "turn" should happen. If the current high hold then the new falling white trendline will be resistance on the rally back up after the expected pullback. While it's really hard to know for certain where this rally will end it's possible that it's ending now and that we'll start down soon and bottom around the end of the month with a fast short squeeze up right after the Labor Day weekend for a lower high then this first rally up. Here's what I mean...

As you can see the pullback will make a nice right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder pattern. It will look very bullish as the next move up would trick a lot of bulls into looking for new all time highs from that pattern. But if it fails it will turn into a nasty wave 3 of C down, and catch a lot of bulls off guard. The best inverted head and shoulders patterns work when the market is near a bottom, not the all time highs. The October 27th, 2023 low was a beautiful right shoulder with the head on October 13th, 2022 and the left shoulder on February 22, 2022. That was a large inverted head and shoulders pattern from a low, which the right shoulder pierced the 200 days SMA, so odds were high it would breakout, and it did.

There was another inverted head and shoulders pattern closer to the low, which had the same head of course and a left shoulder on June 21st, 2022, and two right shoulders, one on December 22nd 2022 and the other on March 13th, 2022. The weekly chart was oversold at both right shoulders, but that's not the case right now as you can see below...

My point here is that "if" we do pullback for a right shoulder into the end of this month the technicals don't support the inverted head and shoulders being successful and breaking out hard. It's near an all time high and the MACD's are overbought still, and the RSI is close to overbought too. I don't know whether this will play out or not but it certainly could and something to watch for sure.

Have a blessed day.

The market continued higher again yesterday so I have to think the odds of any decent pullback are getting slimmer by the day and the odds of a choppy sideways move into the expected high between August 30th and September 4th have greatly increased. I don't really have much more to add as everything points to a double top or slightly higher high in the next 2 weeks, but what happens between now and then isn't going to be easy to figure out. I still think we'll get some kind of pullback, but it might be a one day event, hard too say for sure. It's a waiting game for the coming high now and I'm not too worried about the in-between.

Have a blessed day.

Friday went a little high but not much overall. I posted an updated wave count on Friday and so far it's still looking accurate. This week we should pullback early for a medium wave 4 of the large B up, which on the chart I projected it to around the 5400 area as that's about the 50% retrace mark from the low to the high with this rally, and a move back to that area would be deep enough I think to get more bears onboard to squeeze again into the end of the month, and I don't think there's current any bears left.

They were squeezed out last week as we went higher then most expected, even me. I was only looking for 61.8% but we hit 78.6%, so that was more the expected. It's also possible that we just chop sideways this week for the wave 4 pullback, which is fine too as bulls just need "time" to cool off the short term overbought charts.

The market never makes it easy so if they go sideways that will frustrate bulls and bears both, and it will form a handle for a "cup and handle" pattern, which opens the door for that last move up into Labor Day to make a higher high on the ES/SPX (most likely) but lower high on the NQ/NDX. One of these pattern will very likely play out... the sideways chop is the most frustrating, but don't rule out a fast pullback to make the right shoulder of an "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern and suck in some more bears.

I do not know which one will happen but since the wave 2 pullback was a fast and scary drop I have to lean toward the sideways pattern for the wave 4 as wave 2's and 4's commonly flip in how they unfold. But if it repeats the fast pullback I'd expect it to happen between Monday to Wednesday of this week as that's about all the bearish period that I see for now.

Have a blessed day.