It's looking and feeling like we have topped with that fast overnight stop run to pierce 6000 in the futures. No way to know for certain until support is lost of course. As for today, I don't expect much, unless some news events comes out that causes a sharp move in the market... which could be up or down? But I think the up move from a news event (NVDA earnings) has already happened, so the move should be down I think. I was looking for that stop run to happen late next week, and for it to go higher, like to 6050-6100, but it happened early instead. And it didn't have as many stops to hit as I thought (bears) as if there were more we would have seen those higher targets hit.
Anyway, there's not much to here until it does breakdown. I think we've topped, so I'm short, but we still have an up move likely into late next week. If we drop first though (an A wave) that move will be a lower high (a B wave), which is what I think will happen. Mid-June is still where the biggest panic should happen, so that's where the bottom should appear. Whether it has topped already or will make one more move higher next week is unknown, but in the end we should be going down afterwards, so I'm taking my chances.
After hours yesterday the market broke out and is now running stops overhead. This tells me the odds of topping this week instead of next week is much higher. Basically, it's more of a "feeling" on when to short, which will be based on when one thinks all the stops have been hit on the bears and the market is exhausted.
We could see one more higher high today (or not?). Somewhere between 6050-6150 is where I think the market will run out of gas and rollover, which can happen this week from the looks of the market right now, but it doesn't have too. We could have already topped, at least for now. Meaning we could pullback from here and go back up to that higher area late next week. Or that expected rally is a lower high. The daily closing candle will be important today.
Target on the downside is still around 5500 (or lower) into mid-late June. It really should fill the gap lower down in the 5300's but that's not guaranteed. Nothing more to add, so I'll end it here.
Still a lot of resistance overhead that the market is bumping into now. We could pullback small into this Friday another time before we get the breakout move higher to finally reach 6000+ on the ES, and try to get up to a double top. There's not much on the news front for "events" coming up the rest of this week. However, we have the non-farm payroll report next Friday, June 6th.
If I had to guess I think that will be the last date before the market starts the real decline. What it does between now and then is hard to figure out. If, some how, we blast through this 6000 resistance zone this week then I'll have to think we will end the 5th wave up and the decline will start next week.
But if we fail to get through it, and pullback small this week, then next week should be the last attempt for the bulls to get through and make a run for the all time high. My lean is that we don't get through this week and pullback small, and then do the final move higher into late next week. It could just be barely higher then the 6000 level, or all the way up to a double top.
There's no way to figure that out right now, so we'll have to just let it play out. Basically, I'm looking for this final 5th wave up to subdivide into 5 smaller waves where the (wished for) pullback into this Thursday/Friday is the wave 2 down, whereas the move up from last Friday (into now) is the wave 1 up. That would setup a wave 3, 4, and 5 for next week to finish the final 5th wave up.
Looking at the various charts and time frames for clues I lean toward the market bottoming in the next couple of days. I don't see much more on the downside either. The max might be to 5700 or so on the ES, but it doesn't have to go that low. It might have already put in the bottom last week? Regardless, this still looks and feels like a wave 4 pullback that should be done in a few more days.
Then we should see a wave 5 up into next week, which may or may not make a higher high? Odds are it does, as the market loves to hit stops on the bulls and bears (bear stops this time) before it makes a new trend move (down).
If we do make a higher high I still think that will will stop short a of double top as that's the area every new bear will want to short at, so the market most likely won't allow them the perfect double top to short. It should be 50-100 point lower then the current all time high of 6166 (in hind sight that was such an obvious top with the ritual 666 in it). So, with next week being the first week of June I think it will be the week where this 5th wave up happens.
If so, that should be it on the upside and we should decline into mid-late June where we should fill some gaps below. I don't know if we get all the way down to the 4/22/25 gap fill or not (5339.25) as that seems like a lot, but that gap will be filled at some point. Possibly it gets filled later this year in October? It's an unknown at this point. The other gap is from 5/9 (5715.25), and I'm pretty sure they will fill it.
That pullback will be some larger wave 2 I believe and will make a perfect Right Shoulder in an "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern where 3/13 was the Left Shoulder and 4/7 was the Head. From that low we should explode higher into August/September for the 655.66 FP on the SPY... at least I'm hoping it hits this year.
It's possible I guess that they save it for next year, after we pullback hard this October for a nasty low that should be below the current 4832 low. But, they could also top this year instead and that early high that's expected in the first quarter of 2026 is only a "Lower Higher"... meaning the 655.66 FP on the SPY is the highest high before the bear market starts. With the obvious ritual 666 in the FP I have to think it will be a major high that last a long time. Maybe they hit it this year on 9/9/2025, which is a 999 and an upside down 666 ritual number? Remember that satan does the opposite of God and using the number of man (6) upside down is still a ritual for him.
Anyway, for today I don't have much to say as where the market is going. I'm focusing on catching the next short, which I lean toward it showing up next week (June 6th 2025 is a 669).
The market is continuing to slowly pullback, which is perfect for both paths I covered yesterday. If we turn back up next week and top into the FOMC there's a new intraday FP on the SPY of 591.93 that will be a magnet to get hit. On the downside there's a 564.61 FP from May 13th that might be the pullback low if instead the market declines into the FOMC, whereas then I'll look for the rally back up to the upside FP to hit the following week, which is the first week of June. That's the two paths I see, which is to either hold this zone today and go back up into next week for the upside FP (a lower high) or to decline more early next week to the lower FP and rally back to the upside FP into the first week of June.
The pullback yesterday looks like an ABC move (so far) and might have ended already? It's really hard to say for sure but whether it has ended or not everything still points to next week for the best shorting spot. The end of most months has a turning point on them and this one should be no difference.
It's never some exact date but around the last week of any month or the first week of the next month. With the FOMC minutes next Wednesday I don't see much happening until then. And next Monday the market is closed for Memorial Day. so there's not likely going to be much volume until after both the holiday and the FOMC passes by.
The common pattern is that if we have weakness into this Friday then early next week we should see the opposite. That means a move up into the FOMC is likely, and the Fed doesn't have to say anything really. Just don't add anything positive and allow the overbought charts to do their work. As for today and Friday, if we continue to pullback I'd look for the 5700 zone to be the target. Then we would make one more attempt next week to reach the 6000 level. Whether we make it or fail is unknown but it's the best short in my opinion.
The Alternative Path...
If we don't see the move up next week to try to hit and breakthrough the 6000 zone, and instead we have pulled back into the FOMC, then more time is needed as that missing 5th wave up would just be delayed and pushed out into the first week of June.
This might happen if we have pulled back to say the 5700 zone into next Wednesday and the Fed leans at something that the market like, which would cause a move up afterwards, and it would likely try to hit a double top at 6166, but I don't think it will get through it. There's not much difference in either path as both say we need a pullback (in play now) and a final move up. Just in this case the pullback will last into next Wednesday and the final wave up will go into the first week of June.
In the first path the pullback will be finished by this Friday and we will rally up into the FOMC next week to (probably) fail to get through the 6000 zone. Maybe it pierces briefly but with the shorter time to do the move the amount up should be weaker too. Whereas a pullback into the event would give more fuel for stronger rally up into early June.
In each case I plan to just be patient and left the market decide which one it wants to do. Let the short come to me basically. Just give the market whatever extra time it needs to finish that 5th wave up as that's when the best opportunity should show up.
Nothing to add here as the market is still doing nothing. "Time" is the important thing and next week is the most likely period where the time runs out for the bulls and the market should start down with mid-June still being the likely period for the low to come in at. It's at that point where it's going to be harder to figure out as while the market should start back up into the end of the month there's no way to know if it's just going to be a lower high, with another leg down in the month of July, or if that's the big rally up to the new all time highs. We'll just have to let it play out first... no point guessing right now.
Another snooze fest yesterday as the market refused to fall much, but didn't go up much either. It's very clear that the market is super tired here, but bulls don't die easily. We can linger around for another week inside a 300-400 range, like between 5600-6000 basically. We are at the top end of it, but at some point soon we'll see a pullback to the lower end, and then back up next week for another try to reach the all time high, but I don't think it will happen.
Once the first pullback is done (a wave 4) the wave 5 up next week can go a little higher then the peak this week, or it can truncate short with a lower high. Remember that next Wednesday we have a reading of the minutes of the prior FOMC meeting. While I don't expect anything to be added the market still tends to "just hang out" in a range until after it passes "just in case" the Fed does say something new.
Therefore I still think the best opportunity to short will be next week. Possibly we pullback this week to the 5600 zone, and then go back up to 5800-5900 next week? The after the meeting we start down in a more steady decline to see if the 5600 zone of support can break.
If it breaks then the 5400 area where that gap is at will be the target. If it gets hit late next week or early the following week there will be too much "time" left for the market to decline, so while we should bounce from there that "bounce" will need to hold all the way into mid-June for the bearish period to expire. Can it hold that long? I don't know? If it does then look out for a big squeeze up into early July for the blow off top to play out (as covered in my prior Bullish Wave Count and/or the "If 2020 equals 2025" chart).
However, if that zone breaks we could be back to the Bearish Wave Count where a new low is coming into mid-June. I don't know which one will happen, but I'll be paying very close attention to how much time is left in the bearish period, as that will tell the real story of where it's likely to go. As for today, I don't have any foresight to whether or not we will pullback or chop more. But a pullback to the 5600 zone this week is still likely.
Last week was a "Bear Destroyer" as the market ran up to the 586.86 SPY FP and paused before grinding higher into the close on Friday without giving the bears any way out. I'll look for another short late this month after I see a pullback and one more move up. But for now I'm not doing anything. There's just no way to short this strength and think you will win. You have to allow the first pullback to get bought up by the retail traders expecting new all time highs. It will be the 5th wave up, and it will fall short of the double top.
Why? Because there won't be anymore bears left for fuel to hit their stops as those bears will have flipped to become bulls looking for the double top to try another short. The market won't give them the double top of course, but will tease them to get them fully long before the real pullback in June. I posted another chart on Friday on X with another wave count that I think is more likely now. That chart is below.
As you can see once we start down in June everyone will look for the 4/22 gap to be filled, where they will take a long. It's just too obvious of a target, so there's only 2 options to screw those traders. ONE: You fall short of hitting it as I've show in the above chart, which is what I think will happen. TWO: You drop lower then it to hit the new stops placed by the bulls buying that gap fill, which would then put us back in the Bearish Wave Count I posted on Friday, and re-posted below.
Why do I think that won't happen you ask? Because I think we could see a massive blow off top into July 4th, to hit the 655.66 FP on the SPY, and there's just not enough time left to go that deep on the Bearish Wave Count and run back up to that level by the 4th of July. It needs to be a more shallow pullback so that we can reach the FP in time. Now I don't know for certain that we will reach it by then, but if we drop too low I'll then say that the FP won't be hit until August or even later.
Remember this post about July 5th 2025 from people that had visions of a Tsunami hitting Japan?
Guess what? Now we have a new video from Bo Polny who talks about July 4th as an important day where something is going to happen. I don't know "what" of course, and he doesn't either, but something is likely to occur. If the visions/dreams/prophesy is right from the video on that prior post then I pray for the people in Japan.
Now I'm guessing here that we hit the FP on the SPY of 655.66 into that date, as I could be wrong there, but I find it awful interesting that Bo Polny mentioned it too. He talks about September 18th, 2025 as an important date as well, and these are all Biblical calculated dates from the Bible.
Something I find interesting about that date is that it's a 666 date (999 upside down) as September is the 9th month, 1+8=9 for the 18th, and 2025 is a 9 year (2+0+2+5=9). I remember the last time we had a 999 day we had a large one day drop. It was on September 9th, 2016, which was a nasty drop for just one day. The market wasn't in a correction at that time as the charts were bullish, but the satanists made sure they honored that date with a quick one day drop. If we top in July, pullback in August for a wave 1 of some degree, and go back up into September for a wave 2, then we could be in a wave 3 down around that date, and it could be a lot worse this time around then the last one.
Just something to keep in the back of your mind, that's all. The Bo Polny video is long but well worth watching.
I didn't do a post yesterday as nothing has changed. The market is still around the same zone, even though it went a little higher and is still grinding higher this morning. This should be the wave 3 up and will end at some point soon and we'll a wave 4 pullback. That pullback should be next week and the following week we should see the wave 5 up.
Now... that's where it gets tricky. I do not know if it's the end of a 5 wave up C wave, which ends a larger B wave (my bearish count), or if it's the end of a 5 wave up 3 wave, which would be inside a larger wave 1 up (the bullish case).
Below are those charts...
As you can see there's not much to do until the last week of May where a top for either the bullish case or the bearish case will give traders a good shorting setup.
The FP on the SPY of 586.86 was successfully hit and pierced yesterday, so that should be it on the upside. But I don't think we are going to just fall off a cliff here as there's a lot of support below that will need to be hit, bounced from, hit again, bounce again, rinse and repeat. It means we could see the rest of May doing a lot of chop, and then in June we should start down steady to retest the lows.
Again, I don't know if we go through it hard, double bottom or just make a higher low? I just have to give it more time to let the first series of waves unfold and get a better feel for what could happen. Short term, we should pullback in the coming few days to retest the week long support in the 5650-5700 zone. This might drag into next week, and then we go back up again for a lower high the following week. I don't see any good setup for a short now as we need to allow the market to get the series of wave 1's down and 2's up until support get much weaker and we get a wave 3 of 3 setup form.
This could take a couple of weeks. Yesterday is kind of like the 3/25 high, that pulled back and went back up into the 4/2 lower high, which then setup the big drop that was a wave 3 of some degree. I think we are going to do something similar but it should take 2 weeks this time around, whereas back then it was only about 1 week. Basically, the last week of this month is where we should see that bounce high like the 4/2 high. Nothing more to add as we just have to be patient to allow the pattern to setup.
The market just grinned sideways yesterday after a gap up at the open. It got really close to the FP of 586.86 through out the day but never hit it. After hours it got even closer. It's looking like it might hit it today, and with the CPI out before the open that would be an easy move up to hit from the current closing price from yesterday.
But, if for any strange reason, it does not hit it and it goes down instead, then it's the ol' FP trick again that it's done in the past many times. It will get close to a FP (up or down) on the first attempt and fall shy of hitting it. Then it will go the other direct for awhile (weeks, months?) and come back later to hit it. While I don't think it will do that this time around (because it's so close) I can't rule it out.
Many traders these days see these fake prints just like I do and they wait for them to be hit to take a position. So the market just might trick them and head south without hitting them. If this happens you can just sit back and wait for the end of this month for the FP to get hit on the expected move back up, which then will be followed by a large drop into mid-June, which should take out the current low but that's unknown of course.
The two FP's of 483.07 and 483.62 from last year were hit on that decline (and pierced) so those FP's are fulfilled, so there's no clues on the downside of where the market might go to? I don't know if it's going to be a higher low or lower low but the "time window" for it is mid-June. We'll have to just see where the market is at when we get there I guess. For now those my lean is that we hit (and pierce) the 586.86 FP (in regular hours) and then rollover for the A wave (or wave 1) of the next leg down. It should be over with by the end of this week and then we do the B wave up (or wave 2) into the end of May. I still think about a 50% retracement is possible but it's going to take some bad news to cause it at this point it seems.
WOW! I got fooled again it seems. Even though I knew about the 586.86 FP on the SPY I didn't believe it could hit it, but it's very obvious now that's exactly where it's going. After that though the pullback should happen.
I would think we would see about a 50% pullback from the move up from the low, which ironically is around where the gap fill would be at (roughly 5300). Then, if all goes well, we will rally back up into the end of the month to put a slightly lower high then last weeks high. A move like that should fool everyone into think the low is in and that we are starting a wave 3 up with the pullback this week being the wave 2 down.
It's the perfect bull trap that sets up the next big move down, which should take out the low to hit the stops on the bulls. Most likely it will be a wave 3 inside a C wave, and should end right into the FOMC meeting on June 18th. Then we start a huge rally up with the final target being the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which should be in August I suspect. Nothing more to add.
It went a little higher yesterday, which doesn't change anything. We should still go down next week as covered in yesterday post. This is just the typical bullish to flat bias that seems to follow every FOMC day, where the Thursday and Friday afterwards don't do much of anything, and typically hold the current price or float a little higher. It's always the following week where the real move happens, which could be up or down, but in our case it should be down as we rallied up into it. As for today, I don't have much opinion, but I don't see anything big on the upside. We should start down into next week, and at least fill that gap from 4/22.
Lot's of moves up and down intraday yesterday to go nowhere. But I think we have topped now and we should start down into next week to start the wave 1 inside of the C wave, which means we topped this past Friday, May 2nd for the B wave rally from the 4/7 low (the bottom and end of the A wave). I've changed the wave count a little as I don't think we have bottomed yet and will make a lower low into mid-June, which should be the end of the C wave down.
It should unfold in 5 waves and the move down into mid-late next week should be the wave 1 inside the C. Then we go back up into late May for the wave 2, and finally we drop in the wave 3, 4, and 5 into mid-June where we should reach at least 4600 I think, maybe a little more? That entire move from the all time high will complete a larger ABC down, inside an even larger wave 4, which leaves a 5 wave rally up for the final wave 5 into August probably. That should be where we hit the big upside FP on the SPY of 655.66. I suspect that the 586.86 FP will be hit on the first move up from the June low. Just a guess there, so don't hold me to it.
Today is the day. Big move coming after the FOMC today. I still think we go down and down hard... but I still think there's a good chance that we'll see a squeeze up first, which should hit the FP on the SPY of 586.86, and then we reverse. That seems crazy as it's quite a good move higher to reach that level, but we seen more then that on 4/9, which was almost 700 points!
So there's no reason to think we can't do 200-250 points today after the meeting. If you are a bear you want to see the squeeze so that current shorts are taken out, as that will open the door for a bigger drop with not many shorts left.
I'd prefer to see the move up "front run" the meeting so that it can disappoint and the market can then reverse hard right afterwards, but the more common pattern is to continue then choppy range into it, and then make a big move.
Now... there's also equal odds that they don't run up to the FP first and then drop. I've been in this spot before where I was looking to short the hitting of an upside FP but it never came and I missed the move. So I have to be aware that the high might already be in. There's no way to know the "when" part for any FP hitting. Only that they do hit at some point. Ideally we hit it going into the meeting, but so far the market is still in the same chippy range here before the open as it waits on the meeting.
Nothing more to add here, so I'll keep it short and end it here. Good luck to all the traders too. I hope you all catch the big move coming.
A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market chops sideways waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow. I do not know if they rally into the meeting and collapse afterwards, or rally after the meeting to "hit the stops", and the collapse... but everything tells me we will hit the upside FP on the SPY of 586.86 (around 5900 ES) before we rollover.
It's coming, and it's a massive shorting opportunity in my humble opinion. I still think it will be a "fall off a cliff" type drop into the end of next week. But, I do think that after this flush happens we'll see a move up on Friday the 15th to put in some kind of bottoming tail candle on the weekly chart. All that is needed (in my opinion) is to take out the prior low to "hit the stops" on the bulls. Then we should explode higher in a massive rally into July, with the 4th being the possible date where we could see the 655.66 FP hit on the SPY.
I pray that the video I posted yesterday is wrong, as I don't want to see innocent people die, but we've had floods here in America recently that were really bad (The North Carolina one last year the the recent Kentucky one), and fires that are truly epic in California... plus Hurricanes in Florida last year as well. This doesn't account for the one's in other countries of course. I do believe we are experiencing "Earth Changes", but it's not from "Climate Change" that the deep state keeps pushing. It's Biblical in my opinion. This video below explains it...
There are many other signs that suggest we are in the end times, and Jesus in coming soon. There's never been a more important time then now to get saved and accept Jesus as your savior like I have. It's going to get really bad in the coming few years, and if the map is correct then I pray those living in the areas that might disappear are able to go to another state that's not affected before it happens. Moving is out of the question for most, but many have family and friends in other places, and should get prepared. The chart talked about in the video is below.
The World Future Map
Future Map Of North America
Have an blessed day.
Geccko... email me so I can setup an account for you. I had to install a captcha to stop all the auto bots from spamming me with daily fake comment. The system caught them so they never posted and stayed as "pending" but I'm tired of deleting them daily. Just need for you to setup an account and you can post again.
As of the close Friday, the ES is around 200 points away from the FP on the SPY at 586.86, and with the FOMC coming up this Wednesday I have to think we will top right into the meeting and hit (and pierce) the FP at the same time.
Then we fall off a cliff hard and bottom into around the 15th of May where we retest the low (and pierce though by a hundred points most likely), which then should have everyone calling for the top to be in and that the market is in a recession. Bears will load up massively short and the market will squeeze all the way up to the 655.66 FP on the SPY into the 4th of July.
Sadly, there are forecasts/dreams/predictions out there that says Japan will get hit with a Tsunami on July 5th and that it will be 3 times bigger then the March 11th, 2011 one. It is expected to kill millions and 2 new land masses will rise up out the sea from the plates shifting under the ocean. Needless to say that "if" we hit the upside FP just beforehand that horrible event to Japan will cause a massive crash in the stock market in Japan (Nikki) and of course affect the rest of the world too.
I hate to be so "doom and gloom" but there are others out that that say this will happen. My focus will be on the 655.66 FP of course, and I pray that the good people in Japan do not get hit with this event. These world-wide disasters are a sign to me that we are in the end times. Some think Jesus will return around 2030-2031... no one knows the day or the hour of course but that period "might" be something Bible Scholars can estimate. I pray that all my readers say a pray for Japan as I really don't want anyone to die like that. I'm way off target here in this post but I just had to get it off my chest, so to speak.
Back to the market, this is probably the simplest forecast I've done in awhile. No fancy wave count, just a move up to the 586.86 FP into this Wednesday, a big drop intl the 15th, and then a massive rally into July 4th where the FP of 655.66 will be hit.
That FP came out on 12/16/2024 and you can see the obvious 666 code in it. It's very likely to be the high before we crash into October probably... we'll see.
I think we topped yesterday for the final 5th wave's to end large wave 1 up. I say that because the gap filled on the VIX from 4/2-4/3, so there's not much left on the upside that I can see. We hit the 61.8% retrace level too, so again, the market is running on fumes here. But, I don't think we start down hard today.
It's Friday so we'll probably hold up with light volume and not go down much, or up much. I still think that next week we get the wave A down and B up, leaving the wave C down into the following week to complete large wave 2 down. Most likely we bottom the week of OPEX, and I'd lean toward it bottoming mid-week so that it can reverse back up hard into the end of the week to make all the put holders expire worthless.
Plus, they will want a nice bottoming tail candle put in on that weekly chart to support the big squeeze afterwards. This suggests that the FOMC next Wednesday will disappoint and fail to give the market what it wants (a rate cut). That's just speculation on my part but if we get an A down and B up into that FOMC I have to think we'll take afterwards in the C wave. It will fool the most people I think as everyone seems to think the Fed will cut soon. Maybe they don't? I don't know what the reason will be but something will happen to cause the drop and we won't worry about the reason as that's not important.
Well, the market is still grinding higher. It never an exact science on these turn windows. I still think we will revisit the low before we blast off to new high all time highs. But it's taking longer then I expected to give up and rollover it seems.
I will say that since the month of April has now closed out with a long bottoming tail candle odds are quite strong that the coming move down will not be a blow out deep new low. Odds are it will be a slightly higher low, or just a hair low... like a double bottom? It should be deep enough to scare all the bulls out and suck in the bears looking for a crash. But it won't be, and instead it will turn back up in a wave 3 most likely with the pullback being the large wave 2, and the current rally the large wave 1.
On the short term we are probably in a small degree wave 5, inside a medium degree wave 5, all inside a large degree wave 1 up. Once finished we should see an ABC down for the wave 2 and the A and B waves should start soon, with the C wave likely being next week from the looks of things. Here's a chart...
The moves have been very hard to figure out, but I think this is the most likely plan going forward the next week or so.
