Yesterdays drop screwed up the big drop expected for today as now too many others are super bearish I believe. It's like Trump knew the market was ready to collapse so he tweeted over the weekend the China news so the market would gap down Monday instead of crash on Tuesday... which I think could have happen if Monday would have opened up flat and went sideways all day to close slightly green.

Instead they reset the charts so they can make another push higher. All that is needed for another strong rally up I believe is to close red again today and tomorrow to lure in enough bears so that can squeeze the crap out of them Thursday and Friday and into next week. It's totally crooked, I know, but remember that the market is 100% rigged... and they want it to go up all the time. However, they must reset charts from time to time to get more fuel to climb higher.

Of course that fuel is bear meat. So they plan these one day events where the market falls off a cliff when no one see's it coming. They force the sheep to chase it and of course the sheep get sheered when they do. Shorting the open yesterday would have got you creamed as it rose back up all day long from that gap down low. While that wasn't a 100 point drop open on the SPX it certainly was a deep one. Maybe we call those kind of drops "Mini Flash Crashes" whereas a regular "Flash Crash" is limit down (which is a 100 points, and/or 1,000 on the DOW).

Regardless of their name there's been a lot of them over the past 5 years or so, and all so perfectly timed out. They do the Flash Crash and rip it back up at the open so no one can benefit from shorting it, nor can anyone short in advance as they make sure no one see's it coming. It's very frustrating for sure as just when you think you have a shot at a big move the game plan changes. They do whatever it takes, pay off the referee or umpire, injure one of your players... or even injure one of their own players to get a "time out" to buy them more time to stop the momentum that the sheep (finally) have going for them.

Anyway, that's just me frustrated and bitching because I didn't see that gap down coming and never made a dime from it. Today you can look at the charts to see where the resistance is at. There's a falling trendline now that should stop the bulls but it doesn't by any means suggest that there will be another powerful drop like yesterday. It just suggests that the up move should stop around there and rollover or go slightly down to sideways. Could we still fall off a cliff today via the passport code? Sure, but I'm not betting the farm on it.

Odds now favor the bulls. They just need to keep it weak for today and tomorrow to lure in more bears, which shouldn't be hard too do with all that overhead resistance above. My guess is that they drift down today small to close it red, then do it again tomorrow as well. But I don't see them breaking the low from yesterday... at least not today. I'd love to see it rally up out of this zone and close green today and tomorrow to do the reverse by squeezing all the current bears from yesterday and luring in the bulls.

Then it would setup a really nice short. But I don't see it happening as I know how rigged the market is for the bulls so luring in more bears to produce a stronger, longer lasting rally is more likely then just squeezing yesterdays trapped bears, as that might only produce a 2-3 day move up at best... and setup another big short. For today, if you are a bear, I'd go back to sleep. The bulls surprised you yesterday and got you all fired up, but today they will likely just tease you. Good Luck.

Sunday evening the futures gap down and this morning we see them barely up off of that low. Looks like clear signs of a top forming before a big correction starts. Will this drop get bought up and full reversed today like so many pullbacks in the past several months? Only time will tell. I've spoken many times about a series of drops and rips back up to happen before the next big plunge, and last weeks drop and rally as well as this mornings drop clearly qualifies.

I joked in the free chatroom on Friday that the only way I could see the market collapsing on Tuesday (picked because of the passport code) was for Monday to have a large "W" pattern happen to complete all the waves when referencing Tony Calaro's Elliott Wave charts, and here with this gap down it's actually possible. Still not likely but possible.

Basically this drop down would be his "Minute Wave 4" down, and a rally up from the open today to close the gap or get really close would be the "Minute Wave 5" up. After that another drop to retest the low, and/or pierce it would be his "Minor Wave 4" down, which would then need to be followed again by yet another rip back up into the close for the "Minor Wave 5" up to complete. Once that is done the entire rally up from the December 2018 low would have completed a large "Intermediate Wave 1" and a drop of 61.8% or 76.4% (or some other ratio to make a "higher low") would be next.

This would make "Intermediate Wave 2" down according to Tony's EW count before he passed away. Now Intermediate 1 up took over 4 months to happen from that December low so expecting Intermediate 2 down to play out in just one day is really insane. But the name of the movie is called "Non-Stop" and might just be referencing a crash move? We've seen "Flash Crashes" before where the DOW drops "limit down", or a 1,000 points in one day, but all of those moves stopped there and reversed back up afterwards.

What if this one doesn't stop after the first 1,000 points down? It's certainly a "wildcard" prediction so I'm not tell you or anyone to take a trade based solely on a passport code. I'll be watching closely today to see if Tony's EW count plays out with a "W" pattern today as I just described or if it takes days to weeks for that final Minor Wave 5 up to end... which is more normal of course.

All I can say is that I'm dreaming of such a move to play out and for the market to close green today so both bears and bulls are totally shaken out and/or fully confused. We need traders on the wrong side for a crash wave to happen, so bears must be out of the market and bulls must be fully long... which could happen if we rally up at the open and retest the lows for a double bottom as bulls should buy the crap out it. Then the rally up the rest of the day squeezes the bears and completes all the waves up from the December low. From there the market is ready and ripe to collapse on Tuesday. Dreaming again, but it's my story and I'm sticking to it. Good luck.

P.S. Strange coincidence I'm sure but we had a "Flash Crash" back on May 6th 2010... LOL

The last two days produced a decent little pullback in the market and it looks like a clean ABC wave 4 down to me. It held the rising trendlines of support and is bouncing back up nicely this morning. This 5th wave up is inside a larger wave 3 up and another larger wave 3 up (according to others that do EW better then me). This implies we'll need another wave 4 down, then 5 up... and then yet another wave 4 down and 5 up before all these wave 3's end.

This could easily push out into late May or longer... just depends on if these wave 5's up are the short kind or long ones. The bottom line here is that odds a flash crash next Tuesday are extremely low. It's just a dream as I said yesterday. These passport codes need to line up with other stuff to work I guess. Many wave counts need completed, technical analysis agrees with a large pullback, etc... and I know you might think that technical analysis right now suggests a big drop but when I look at the daily and weekly chart I don't see it that way.

Yes, they are overbought, but there's still room for them to go up higher. We're just not there yet. I want to catch a big move as bad as you guys do but it's just not showing up for me at the present. Day trading though as been fun for some I'm sure these past couple of days. Anyway, have a great weekend and lets see what Monday gives us. Maybe I can catch the next wave 4 down, who knows?

Looks like the market didn't like what the Fed had to say at yesterdays FOMC meeting as it sold off going into the close. This morning we see the futures slightly up, but basically about flat. I'm not sure what to think here so I'll just look for some technical setups to occur. If the bears can keep the market going sideways for several days, without letting the bulls get back up to yesterdays highs, then we'd have a bear flag formed and another drop should follow. How long does it need to form is the question?

Certainly today and tomorrow, probably Monday too, and maybe even Tuesday as well? Usually about 3-4 days of sideways movement with an upward bias is about all that is needed. That suggests Monday or Tuesday, and since Tuesday is the passport code it certainly would be nice if the bears could keep form this bear flag into the close on Monday and then drop it off a cliff on Tuesday. Odds don't really favor this as being the "big drop" down to that 245.29 FP on the SPY, but it's my dream scenario so just root for it please.

Reality suggests this move down is just some kind of wave 4 pullback and a wave 5 up is yet to come. This wave 4 down could have ended with just that one wave down into the close yesterday, or it could do an ABC move down whereas that bear flag I'd like to see happen would be the B up and the drop after that on Tues/Weds would be the C down (the A down would of course been yesterdays drop).

I think most are looking for the ABC move down to make the wave 4 and then back up after that for the 5th wave. No doubt this is the most logical pattern so me dreaming of catching another flash crash is just that... dreaming. Anyway, not much more to add then that. I do expect some kind of move up today, and hope it's a small one to start forming that bear flag. If large then the bears need to go back into hibernation again. Good Luck.

Oh what a beautiful morning it is here in southern Ohio where I live. But the pollen count must be high as my allergies are kicking my butt. Still though, it much much better then cold weather... especially when you don't even get the pretty snow to go with it like last year.

Anyway, I don't have much to add this morning other then "we are close"... meaning we could see a top this week if the market goes up today and tomorrow without pulling back much. If it closes down on either day then it's likely subdividing into smaller waves and could push up into next week or mid-May. I'm rooting for the bulls to just keep on stampeding upward these next few days so they can get it over with and let the bears have some fun.

Speaking of fun for the bears, as you know I've mentioned several times recently that I was expecting a 50-100 point pullback and then up again into the summer before a larger drop happens... like down to that "possible" FP of 245.29 on the SPY. I've been thinking a lot about that FP and I'm not a 100% that it's a real one. There is a chance that it's just a late fill from that day. It was put out on 2/7/19 of this year, which isn't an "eleven" date, so that's a concern of course.

I remember my first FP (which told the low for the year) was on 1/11/2010 and was on the SPX for a low of 1047, which is 111 as 4+7=11, keep the first 1 and drop the 0. Plus the day of the month had an eleven in it as it was on the 11th. The FP was also way out of the trading zone of the past several days before it, so it was certainly a real one.

The one I have from this January 7th, 2019 was trading in that zone just 2 days prior, so that has me a little worried that it could be a late fill by a market maker instead of a real fake print. But it does have the eleven code in it, a double eleven at that! So that is encouraging. Last year we had the upside FP for 293.90 on the SPY and it was hit and pierced slightly (common) on September 21st, 2018. That FP came out on 2/27/2018, which is a double eleven again. It's 2+2+7=11 and 2+0+1+8=11, or 11 11. The 293.90 part though is a 5 as 2+9+3+9+0=23 and 2+3=5.

Possibly (this is just me "thinking out loud", or in this case... thinking and writing) the 245.29 FP for this year just did a flip whereas it wasn't possible to get a double eleven code out of the date so they did it in the actual fake print? Basically this possible FP could still be a real one as it has the "eleven" code in the numbers... just not the date like last years FP. But since I'm not a club member of the insiders I have to guess at the correct way to read these prints.

Anyway, we'll cross that road when we start dropping hard, which might start this week? Don't forget about the passport code I have for next week. While every passport code doesn't play out the Lucy one certainly did, as that was the day of the flas crash on August 24th, 2015. Are we going to have another flash crash on this coming passport code date? Only time will tell...

Well, looks like another flat open with the futures barely up. Yesterdays open was hit with more selling by the insiders it seems. We are going on about two months now where some 80% (rough guess) of the opens each day are being sold. It takes time for them to unload all the tons of shares they bought at the bottom back in December as they can only sell small amounts at a time to the retail pubic... aka, "The Sheep" or "Dumb Money". These things aren't normal in my opinion, at least not for everyone just expecting a 50-100 SPX point pullback, and then another higher high to 3000+ by mid-summer. It doesn't makes sense that the big boys would spend 2 months unloading for such a small move down. It smells of a large drop coming... like maybe all the way down to the FP on the SPY from 1/7... which I'm not a 100% positive it's a real one as it did fall into the prior days' trading zone.

To get one that is 100% I'd want to see it go to a level that the market hadn't traded at in weeks or months. However, it's got the 11 code in numbers so that's encouraging at least. I'm going with 80% positive it's a real FP that will be hit before this year is over with. But will it be hit on this coming move down is the real question? I have to add that's there's a movie code coming up early next month, and we all know what happened on 8/24/2015, which was the date on the passport in the movie called "Inception" (2010) and "Lucy" (2014)... so that event was planned at least 5 years in advance. It had 2 movies, or double conformation.

This movie for next month is called "Non-Stop" (2014)... catchy name huh? I find the names of the movie also tell a clue as I believe it was sometime in 2015 when governments around the world started putting up statures to worship satan (Baal).  So the prior 2 movies could be read as "Inception of Lucifer". What does the name "Non-Stop" refer too I wonder? The move down on October 19th, 1987 was certainly something that could be described as "Non-Stop".

I'm not saying that's going to happen again but I am saying we have some weird clues that "hint" of something big happening very soon. Just be alert... very alert. The pedophiles might do another False Flag event to blame the coming move down on. I'm sure they will blame it on Trump too if they pull it off. Considering that movie was put out in 2014 and it's now 5 years later it certainly should re-assure you we live in the Matrix and it's a 100% planned out, controlled and executed exactly on time.

Ok, for the short term (today) I have no opinion. The market is in chop zone so I really don't have any clues on the direction today. But if the insiders don't hit the open again with sell orders then they might leave early for the weekend and let it float up all day and close green. Have a great weekend everyone and remember to question everything. Use logical to call out B.S., always remember that God is real. The satanist know satan is real, so logic say God and Jesus is real too.

Looks like another day of nothing to me, with no clear direction for the bulls or bears. But, we have the FP on Apple that is almost hit, so that should mark the top for it and possibly the market too. I will say this, the longer the market go sideways the bigger the next move should be. So if it does this crap again today, and tomorrow... and maybe part of next week too (doesn't seem likely but nothing is impossible) then whichever way it breaks out should start a very large move. If up then another strong rally should take us up to 3000 or 3100+ before it runs out of steam. But if it breaks down then the drop should much more then the 50-100 points that I've been guessing at for awhile now.

We have a passport code coming up in two weeks and we have some political stuff going on with China and a meeting with Trump on the 8th, so something is brewing for sure. Will it cause another melt up or breakdown is the question? Obviously I'm leaning toward a breakdown as the past several weeks we saw many gap ups that got sold into by the insiders, and they know the next big move. Since we've been going sideways for several days now those insiders might be finished unloading their longs to the retail sheep and are just waiting for some signal to go short.

I say that because the volume in the SPY is so low these past days that it's very unlikely the insiders are shorting it yet. This China news might be what they are waiting on? Maybe they don't know the outcome but suspect it's going to be bad news and if it is then they will jump in short with both hands afterwards. Between now and then I'd like to see a top put in and a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up start forming. Just a nice slow stair step move down with slightly lower highs on each bounce back up for the wave 2's.

If timed out correctly (and big moves always do as the market has always been rigged) then the layered wave 3's down should happen around the China meeting... or some other news event. I'm focused on the China event mainly because it's so close to the passport code for the 7th, but any bad news event could be the trigger. It's just that this China meeting has to do with money, and lots of it.... the kind that can shake the market.

Anyway, I have no opinion on the direction of the market today. Yesterday we did pullback some and closed at 292.23 on the SPY, so that was close to my 292 pin. But there's no options expiration for today so it's open to go up or down... or nowhere. For me, I'm just going to play the waiting game. Sometimes it's better to be in cash then in a trade (actually, a lot of times that's true... LOL).

Yesterday the bulls put another hurting on the bears as they squeezed them up all morning long and went sideways the rest of the day. Afterhours and premarket we see more sideways movement but with the open interest in the calls sitting at the 292 strike price I have to think we'll pull back today by the close to make them expire worthless. The big interest in the puts on the SPY is at the 290 strike price, so I just don't see this 293 zone holding all day long.

Odds say we'll pullback small before making another attempt at a new all time high. So far the futures have hit 2939.25 and I believe the all time high was 2942 and change, so while many other will just expect the bulls to just push on up through it today I really have my doubts. Will we make a new all time high? Of course we will but again, it rarely happens on the first attempt. Yes, the market is rigged, and yes it's changed now that it's near a 100% computer driven, (it was 84% in 2014 when the floor in Chicago was still open), but people still trade on emotions.

And since most sheep have thrown in the towel on the short side and are now likely long (just expecting the market to march on up to 3000+) you have to think the opposite. We should start getting a series of small pullbacks and then second, third and fourth attempts at a new all time high in the coming weeks. One of those attempts might make it through by a few points but the move to 3000+ should not happen until a decent pullback happens. I mean 50-100 points to lure in enough bears to make the squeeze back up easier. It might need to go deeper then that too so they can shake out the "buy the dipper bulls" as well.

The month of May has been picked up an old saying over the years called "Sell in May and go away". It referred to traders that were mostly bulls who went long at the first of the year and would commonly sell in May (but not necessarily go short... mainly they went to cash) so they could take the summer off and spend time with family or go on vacation.

This old saying really hasn't worked too well since the 2013 as every May from there up until now has been up or at least flat. Today we have more and more every day folks trading from home on their computers and this growth has certainly changed the game. The old floor traders that would take the summer off (if they could as some still had to work I'm sure) just aren't there anymore as the last exchange in Chicago was shutdown several years ago. Also added several years ago was the introduction of the weekly options now available on most ETF's that expire on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

Another old saying was to "buy the low on the Thursday or Friday of the second week of the month", which was because the market makers would commonly drive prices down that week to sell "puts" to the sheep and then run it back up on the third week going into the monthly option expiration on that Friday. This doesn't happen anymore much either as the weekly options now make that third Friday not much more important then any other Friday of the month.

Times have changed and traders have to change as well. Old saying don't always work anymore. So will we go down in May this month? I doubt if the actual monthly close does much more then end up flat, slightly down or slightly up. But intra-month we could certainly see a pullback. Short term I think today will close at the 292 strike price or below it. Happy Hump Day.

Another day of a flat looking open it seems. The more time that passes by the bigger the expected move to follow I believe. The question is... will be a breakout upside move or a breakdown? Only time will tell. But there's hope as clues can (and commonly do) appear before the next big move. Hopefully I'm able to spot them in advance. For this morning I don't currently see anything, but that could change by the close today and I'll of course post it in the free chatroom. The QQQ had an afterhours spike to 188.86 after the close yesterday, so that "possible" FP could be the high on it today?

If that's all we get on the upside for other indexes today as well then I'd have to lean toward a sell setting up by the close. Still too early to confirm yet but that's my hunch right now. Maybe it stretches out into Wednesday or even Thursday... possible for sure. But a sell to me has higher odds then a buy due to the selling we've seen by the big boys over the last several weeks. All of those times where they would goose the futures afterhours and premarket to hit the open with sell orders tells me it's just a matter of time before we see a nice pullback start. It could be at today's close or tomorrow or Thursday... maybe even Friday? I don't know yet but a nice move down seems way more likely to me then another 1,000 points (DOW) rally is.

It's true that we are really close to that all time high from last year, but as I've said several times now, it's rare to see the first attempt up at a new high just bust on through it without a decent pullback first. So odds still lean to the bears here but that doesn't mean it's ready to drop just yet. Possibly they do a fake out move up to squeeze some shorts that has a quick reversal back down (but still doesn't take out the all time highs... just gets closer). Anyway, I don't have much to add today as the market goes sideways trying to make up its' mind on the next big move. Good luck trading.

Finally... a pullback! Yesterdays pop and drop was a decent enough move for me to now believe a pullback is starting. Call it the A wave down yesterday and if we can get a tiny B wave up today then I can short it over the long weekend for that C wave down to start on Monday. Yeah, it sucks doing it over a weekend, and it's why many won't short. Which is also why SkyNet likes to pull those stunts over a weekend to trap traders on the wrong side.

Many times we'll see a last drop into the close on some Friday to trap short over the weekend when the following Monday it gaps up and squeezes them all day long. But this time I'm expecting the opposite to happen where SkyNet lures in the bulls into the close today and then gaps it down next Monday.

What I don't want to see today is a move up higher then yesterdays high... and I don't think it will happen. The big boys were clearly hammer the sell button at the open yesterday as you can see the volume was heavy the first hour or so. If you go back to the 8th of this month you'll see how it opened with a gap down where big boys had sell orders in for the open, then floated up the rest of the day.

On the 9th it gaped down again with heavy sell orders at the open but struggled the rest of the day to rally back up. On the 10th it looks like the big boys took the day off to let the market rally back up more. But on the 11th they hammered again around midday this time. On the 12th they had their gangster buddies put out some upgrades if I recall correct to cause a nice gap up that Friday morning... which again they sold into.

Then this Monday the 15th the market open up with a small gap up and once again it got sold into. Tuesday the 16th... another gap up! What a surprise... LOL! Of course it got sold into as well. Then yesterday (the 17th) more paid liars upgraded more stocks, and the market really did a nice gap up at the open. This time the big boys hit the sell button a lot harder as the market dropped quite a bit the rest of the day from that morning peak. Now looking at the futures this morning we see them up a little but still quite a way down from yesterdays high.

I suspect the big boys will take today off since they hammered the market so hard yesterday and we'll then see how strong (or weak) the market really is. If it manages to rally up to another higher high then yesterday I'd be shocked and take no position over the weekend. But I suspect it will struggle all day and gain very little due to the increased selling pressure by the big boys and the lack of buying by the retail sheep. If I'm right then we'll see a small B wave up and then a nice C wave down on Monday.

So I'll be looking closing for a short at the end of the day today and will of course alert everyone in the free chatroom if I do or don't take the trade. Look out for the unexpected over the weekend is what I'm thinking... news wise I mean. There's a gap on the futures at 2840.75 from 3/29-3/31, so I'm looking for that to get filled at the minimum... if this drop happens? The DOW is pretty important too as the "even number" level of 26,000 is something the bulls will want to make sure they don't lose on a closing bases when the drop happens. Have a great long weekend and may God bless you and your family (trading too... I know I need it).

Not much to say this morning that hasn't already been said. It's the same today as yesterday it appears. More grinding up. It looks like tomorrow could be the same too with more choppy sideways action. Remember that the market is closed on Friday so I expect more light volume today and tomorrow due to the holiday. I still don't see the bulls blasting on through to make a new all time high this week, or next... at least not on this first attempt. A pullback should happen first, but it's not looking likely for this week. For today... "same as it ever was".

The futures are up this morning into the 2920 area, so today will be an interested day as I suspect everyone will be getting super bullish here expecting a new all time high to be the next target. Will history repeat and therefore we'll see a pullback first and then a second run up toward that all time high, or will this time be different with the market just blasting right through it on the first hit? Only time will tell I guess but I'm certainly not interested in a long up at this level.

And I'm too scared to short it... LOL. But if we get a pullback I'd be interested in a long... and unfortunately so would everyone else. And that's the reason that I believe the pullback (if any happens?) will be deeper then most expect. Like 80-100 points instead of 20-30 where many will jump in long at. I'm going against the grain here as many good people see us in a wave 3 of 3 up right now, and who can disagree at this point? Day after day the market keeps going higher with tiny pullbacks intraday.

So it's obviously in some kind of wave 3 up. My question is... when does in end? And what if it's not a wave 3 and instead it's a wave 5? That could change a lot as then a pullback would be the start of a new ABC move down and not just a small wave 4 move. So I wait patiently each day to see if any sell setups can form. I'm looking for clean 5 wave moves that end with negative divergence on the daily chart and other time frame too. I'm also looking for resistance levels and Fibonacci ratio to line up. It's not just one thing I'm focused on.

Then there's code in the numbers, possible fake prints, and even passport codes. Unfortunately the only upside FP I have is on Apple for 209.95 and it's only around 200 right now. Possibly that FP will mark the high in the market too? The next passport code I have is for May 7th, so that's plenty of time for Apple to hit its fake print... which would certainly put the SPX at new all time high I'd have to think. Those things keep me on the sidelines for now as they are way more reliable then any wave count or technical analysis.

Maybe we do only get a small 20-30 point pullback here soon and then we blast on through that all time high so that Apple can hit its FP and top out the market? It's completely possible that it happens like that, which again is another reason for me to stay out of the market for now until something clearer forms. As for today... I don't have much to offer. Probably more sideways crap after the gap up open. Good luck.

Here we are again without a clue on where or when the market is going to reverse back down. I'm still thinking though that we won't take out the 2942 all time high on the first attempt and will rollover in the 2910-2920 zone (which we are inside that area now). The closer it gets to the all time high the more bears that will pile on short. That's why I think it will top and turn 20+ points early of hitting that prior high as SkyNet doesn't want the bears to catch the ride from the top and will likely want them to chase it down.

I'm not sure how it's going to play out but another sideways day today, then small dip on Tuesday and back up on Wednesday wouldn't surprise me at all. From there though I think we'll start to pullback into the rest of the week and the week after. There's a gap from 3-29 to 3-31 on the futures at 2840.75, so at the very minimum I expect that level to be hit and fill that gap. It should go a little lower I think and pierce the double bottom from 3-25 and 3-27, which was around 2790 or so.

This might take a couple of weeks with fast "buy the dip" rallies in-between but a move down is very likely coming soon. Could it just push on through the all time high and not look back? Sure it could but history tells a different story. First attempts at hitting an all time high and going through it rarely ever work. It's just the mindset of traders I guess that once such a level gets close they all just assume it will be hit and therefore they bail on shorts and go long looking for that new high.

Of course the stock market is rigged to take the dumb money and give it to the smart money, so when SkyNet see's this in the amount of puts and calls it is forced to go the other way. Remember that the market makers are sellers of puts and calls and NEVER want to pay out on them once they have been sold. Their job is to manipulate the market up and down to make sure those puts and calls expire worthless so they can keep the money.

They are just like insurance companies whose goal is to make sure they collect the monthly premiums but rarely ever pay out. They spend tons of money on slick lawyers to make sure all the fine print covers them to the maximum so claims made get paid out in a fraction of what should be paid (stipulations, caps and limits in legal documents) or never paid out (loop holes in the fine print).

A criminals job is to deceive you and make you think he's honest, and the stock market does just that. You are fighting against a super computer that controls the media (to brainwash you into getting on wrong side of the trade), see's the cards in your hand (knows the open interest of puts and calls), and see's where you placed your stops at.

Needless to say it's not an easy game to play. The cards are extremely stacked against you. And if you think there's some secret trading method that can make you rich then you are dreaming or believing those scammers doing internet ads on youtube like Jason Bonds, Kyle Dennis, Jeff Bishop, Petra Hess, or Mark Deaton. Trust me when I tell you that NONE of them have a secret formula that works.

Anyway, for today I again don't expect much action. I do think we are close to a nice pullback but it seems that most of the time the first few days of the week are boring and the bigger moves happen late in the week. So I'm still thinking that we could pullback small on Tuesday and back up on Wednesday to double top whatever the high is today. Then I think we'll start the move down. Happy Monday.

No surprise here this morning before the open really as the market is rigged to go up probably 80% or more of the time, so expecting a nice setup to form for the bears is like buying a lottery ticket sometimes. I'm just glad I stayed in cash as that saved me from being trapped short this morning. Of course I refused to go long as we are quite overbought up here and overdue for a nice pullback. So I'm forced to wait for a better opportunity, which might just be around the corner here soon?

I don't see anything big setting up on the sell side for today so other then some possible morning dip I'd expect this rally up to hold into the close and maybe grind up a little higher even. I've been thinking that the past several days of sideways action could be a wave 4 of some degree so it's likely this is the wave 5 up happening now. I suspect this will carry over into next week too so there's very low odds of me taking any short over the weekend. Could it top today and drop on Monday? Sure, but I don't see it as likely.

There's nothing in the "possible" wave counts to give me enough clues that a big drop is coming. Dip buyers are always around at a top, so the first decent pullback will undoubtedly have a move back up... and that's what I'm looking for to short at. We are up in that area (2910-2920) where a top could happen. Again, it's just too early to know right now. But remember that it's common for the first attempt at a new all time high usually fails, so a pullback late next week is certainly possible. We need to see some weakness first though, which I think could happen on Monday or Tuesday. For today though I don't see any high odds trade. Have a great weekend.

I took yesterday off guys and it looks like I didn't miss much. On Tuesday after the close there was a FP on the SPY pointing to 288.95 around 4:25 pm. Then on Wednesday the market started the climb up to hit that FP but fell about 50 cents shy by the close. Then afterhours yesterday the grind up continued until about 9:30 pm where the FP was hit, and a pullback followed from there. Then it's back up again this morning to re-hit that FP (288.99) around 7:10 am, so I'm not sure if it will be hit again during the normal hours session as I have seen a fake print in the past trick me by hitting it during the afterhours/premarket period and reversed from there. Anyway, the bulls are still in control here as this sideways action is making a bull flag. But time is limited so they need to breakout to the upside soon and clear 2900 (and possibly the all time high too?) or else they will risk turning the ball over to the bears.

Knowing how rigged the market is I have to think that we could see another day of this action tomorrow too just so they can release some news over the weekend to gap it up and over resistance or tank it down hard with traders trapped on the wrong side. If this was a game of football then each green close on the market (the DOW and the SPX, but the DOW is most important I believe as it "foretells" weakest or strength) would be like gaining some yardage for another down. So while we've certainly seen more then 4 green days in a row happen it's not an exact science that each one green close equals a 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down or 4th down. But I view today as being either the 3rd down or the 4th down... not sure which?

Put simply I think the bulls are running out of time here and need to breakout today or tomorrow or they will be forced to turn the ball over to the bears. If the bulls were smart here they would drop back some (small) to close red, which would be like them getting a penalty flag against the bears. I wouldn't go so far as to say they would earn another 1st down but the same down repeated over (to buy them an extra day) is certainly possible. It's weird to me why I even thought about comparing the market to football as I honestly don't watch it at all. I don't think I have in 10 or 20 years? Crazy!

But I did go to see the Jacksonville Jaguars 3 or 4 live when they first became a new football team back in 1990 something. It was their first year and I have to say it was a lot of fun at the time. I played a men's softball for about 10 years back then too and loved it... waaaaaay more fun then baseball as you get to hit the ball a lot more and never really strike out. More action is more fun. Anyway, for today I'll be focused on seeing if the bulls can squeak out a little more upside and hold it into the close today. If we do close green I'll be looking for a short, but my hunch is that we'd close slightly red today and then green tomorrow to fool bulls and bears alike so they will both be positioned wrong on Monday.

Then all you need is some news properly released over the weekend to get the next big move started. I still think it will be down and I wouldn't be shocked one bit if we didn't pullback small today and squeeze up hard tomorrow to get within 10-20 points of that all time high. If I were SkyNet that's what I'd do. Then everyone will assume we are going to take out that all time high next week and will be long. They will be thinking a nice pierce through it would put in a top and then they would want to short that double top zone.

However, SkyNet rarely gives everyone what they want. From my experience the first move up toward a prior high falls short of it by just enough points keep traders from taking a short position, and hanging out around 2900 is certainly well below that double top area. Even a fast squeeze tomorrow to say the 2920's is below that all time high enough to keep the bears from jumping onboard. So today at the close or tomorrow could be the short setup I've been waiting on. I'll let everyone know when and if I short in the chatroom of course.

Yesterday was showing some life by the bears at the open but it all faded away by the close. This morning we see the futures about flat so I have to think that if this continues into tomorrow the bears will likely be toast as it will become a nice bull flag for the bulls to launch higher from. Clearly there's a battle here at the 2900 even number level but bulls have the edge and while a significant pullback is long overdue it's not looking good right now. This week is still young but it's leaning toward a breakout to the upside right now.

Bears really need to drive the bulls back today if they want stand a chance on creating a nice pullback. I have my doubts on it happening though as if the bulls can just go sideways one more day they will run into a rising trendline of support where they can launch back up from to take out 2900 and then some. Now... will we hit a new all time high? I just don't know? Maybe, but usually new highs are NOT created on the first attempt up, so if they take out 2900 decently this week and make a run for that 2942 all time high then it should fail and fall short and pullback from it.

But if it just barely drops and holds above 2900 all week then it could certainly push through to a new all time high next week. Meaning that in that scenario it would have much better odds on a second attempt, but this first attempt is one that "usually" fails. I'm still in the camp of thinking that we'll see an 80-100 point pullback before a new all time high.

And as I'm writing this morning update about an hour before the open I see the futures rolling over now. Not much but not flat like before either. Maybe we drop to that rising trendline over the next day or so and then make another run back up? This is what I mean when I say that when the market gets close to a form all time high it will commonly pullback, and the futures did hit the 2900.00 exactly in the afterhours session, so that might be all she wrote for that attempt higher.

On the SPY I noticed that the futures hit a high of 288.93 in the weekend afterhours session but by the open Monday they gaped down. Then the rally back up into the close yesterday when as high as 288.91... just shy of that prior high. It means to me that the weekend high and drop to the Monday morning low could have been a small A wave down in some kind of ABC pattern.

Then the rally all day into the close to stop just 2 cents shy of the weekend high was the small B wave up. If so then the current early morning drop just might be the start of the small C wave down, which could go into the 286.00-286.50 area if correct? This was the pattern I was looking for yesterday and talked about all day in the free chatroom but that rally up into the close had me thinking I was wrong as it went so high. Now it's possible again. Still a "best guess" type of market right now. Good luck.

It's always hard to figure out Mondays lately as they seem to be pause days before the market decides the direction for the week. But we are getting up into that zone where a nice pullback is likely. The bulls now are expecting a double top or higher high as the bears have pretty much given up. I find that when you look back at the past you'll see many times where the market rallies up into a resistance zone where a double top hit is possible but it seems to fall short the majority of the times on the first attempt. Rarely does it blast up through it on the first go at it, so this time shouldn't be any different.

There's likely a pullback coming (I'd guess 80-100 SPX points) before the all time high is taken out. Since we are so close now I'd have to think this week will be when that pullback starts. What day it starts though is another story? So I'll just keep this update short and end it here. We are close for sure. Maybe we go up a little more but I'm not expecting any new all time high before a decent pullback happens first. Maybe it starts today, just don't know? I'll just take it day by day and so far I don't have any clues for this morning. Best of luck to you.