Nothing to add really as the market chops in a range not breaking down hard, nor breaking out. While it could breakdown instead of up I still think it will breakout and run to the FP on the SPY. But if it's going to happen it must be this week as next week is a panic week, which should be down, not up. Yes, it could be a panic up but with the market already up this high I have to think it will be down.

Have an blessed day.

This week still has the best odds I think of the FP of 655.66 on the SPY getting hit. OPEX weeks are typically bullish or choppy as market makers pin the price level to some area to inflict maximum pain on option holders. What that level is I don't know? But again, they usually focus on making "puts" expire as they tend to be sellers of them. It's next week where we should see a correction start. As for today, I don't have much to add that hasn't already been covered last week, so this update is a short one.

Have an blessed day.

The pullback yesterday looked like wave 4 of a smaller degree and from that low yesterday we should be starting the final wave 5 up, which will probably breakdown into 5 smaller waves. If all goes well we will hit the FP sometime next week, which should make the bears capitulate. Then we can see a real correction happen, which at least the 588.79 SPY FP should be hit (5900's ES), or if it wants a deeper one we should fill the gap around the 5300's on the ES. All of this should play out into September 18th I think. That correction will be the bigger wave 4 that everyone has been looking for. From there we face rip the rest of the year.

Have a great weekend.

Well... my wave count got busted yesterday as the high of my wave 1 got taken out, which now opens the door for the market to be in an ABC up now for a larger B wave... which might reach a double top? Then we get the C down to take out the low to complete a larger degree wave 4. My wave count from yesterday had the wave 4 completing already at the low last week but now it's looking like it's subdividing into an ABC that should put in a slightly lower low in the coming days. Here's that new chart below...

Now I'm also covering the other possibility that the larger degree wave 4 did bottom last last week and we are in a wave 3 up inside the final wave 5, which is shown in RED on the chart. It's very similar to my chart on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, except it ended the smaller wave 2 pullback already, whereas I was thinking it was going to unfold in an ABC down and that we should have a C wave for a higher low still coming. I thought we'd see it Thursday/Friday, but that can't happen now as it will be a different wave if we get any pullback at all today and/or tomorrow.

It's going to be hard to figure this out going forward but we should pullback at the double top for some amount to give us a clue. If it happens early next week then I think it will be shallow and that we will be on the wave count in RED, whereas the move down is a wave 4 and a wave 5 up will take us to the 655.66 FP on the SPY into next Friday or sooner. But if the pullback starts today or Friday we might get the C wave down to end the wave 4 where we could reach a slightly lower low. If that happens I don't see the FP on the SPY hitting by the end of next week, but I guess anything is possible?

I get the feeling we will hit the FP into early next week, then pullback small for a wave 1, and back up for a wave 2 into Friday. Then we'll get a much bigger drop starting the week of the 18th, which then could reach the 588.79 FP on the SPY. The wave 5 up (in RED) will complete an even bigger wave pattern where we then drop into a low on September 18th to complete a much larger degree wave 4 (ABC probably), and the gap fill around 5300 is very possible. Then the final 5th wave up to 7500-8000 starts and goes into the first quarter of 2026.

The point here is that many people are now looking for a C wave down in the coming days to complete a wave 4 so they can get long for the wave 5 up... which most assume will be a major new high. But I have the FP of 655.66 on the SPY (6600 ES?) for an important top, and it might be at that level that the real wave 4 down starts that most think is already in play now. Yes, it's a smaller degree wave 4, but many people are looking for that wave 4 that goes to the 200 day SMA and/or the 5300 gap fill level. That should come, but probably after we hit the upside FP on the SPY first so that the smaller degree wave 4 and 5 can complete to allow a bigger (abc) wave 4 pullback to play out.

Have an blessed day.

Again, the market is doing as expected with the waves, but it rarely works out this smoothly. There's usually some tricks that try to get traders trapped on the wrong side before the real move, which too me is the squeeze for the wave 3 inside the wave 5 up.

It still should start from a low this Thursday but of course I could be off a day and maybe it happens on Friday? But for now we appeared to have ended the wave 1 up inside wave 5 and started the ABC pullback for the wave 2 down. We "might" have finished the A wave and if so, there's a B up coming that should not take out the recent high for wave 1 (6377 ES), which then leaves the C down to follow, which then will complete the wave 2 down.

Oddly, this is lining up for the ol' "Pit Bull Low (coined phase by Marty Schwartz)" where back in the old days (before daily options, when there was only the monthly one's) it was common to see the market bottom on the Thursday/Friday of the week prior to OPEX week. Market Makers would sell "puts" to the retail and then squeeze the market back up into the 3rd Friday (again... OPEX week) to make all the puts expire worthless. Then the market would do the best pullback after OPEX week ended, which is usually the last week of the month. This is lining up to happen again it seems as (if) we hit the upside FP of 655.66 into OPEX week the following week should have a really nice drop. How much I don't know?

But if it's slow then the 588.79 FP is probably all we'll see. If that is hit too fast, like into the end of the month, I'd look for another drop later in September to the 5300's to fill that gap on it. From there we should rally hard into the rest of the year. Several different paths the market could take but this is looking quit possible.

Have an blessed day.

Not much to add today other then the market appears to have completed the ABC down fo the wave 4 already and the C wave doesn't need a final wave 5 down inside it as it's finished. It suggests we are in a wave 1 up and have completed 4 out of 5 waves inside it.

Once it's done (probably today), we should see the wave 2 down play out into this Thursday. It should be an ABC but of course doesn't have to play out like that. It could be a one wave move, but odds are low because of how much time is left until Thursday. Either way, once it's finished we should start a wave 3 up inside a bigger wave 5, that should complete sometime next week.

I suspect it completes midweek and does a smaller degree A down and B (or 1 down and 2 up?) going into next Friday so that it's ripe for a nasty drop starting the week of the 18th, which is where I think we get the pullback to the 588.79 FP on the SPY. It's leaning now toward September 18th being a low, which would be the large wave 4 correction that we've been looking to happen for months now.

If it plays out this way we'll see a massive blow off top for the last wave 5 to 7000-8000 happen in the following months. We should top out in early 2026, like in the first quarter, and then the real bear market starts. All just speculation for now, but the short term should be easier to figure out, and that's a pullback for a higher low into this Thursday.

Have an blessed day.

Last Friday continued the pullback and lost the support of the 6250-6350 zone briefly but closed back inside the lower range. I'm still unsure on whether or not this support is taken out and we go deeper to the next support down around 6100 or so, but time-wise we should see a bottom by this Thursday roughly.

From that low we should rally up into OPEX week and there's still good odds that we hit the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which will be roughly 6600 on the ES. Now if we fall off a cliff this week and hit the 588.79 downside FP into Thursday everything will change as then I'll have to look for the upside FP getting hit in September. But right now there's still good odds of this happening.

On a short term we probably have declined in an ABC where the B wave up did a slight "throw-over" an inched out a slightly new higher high. From there we dropped in the 1,2, and 3 waves inside the C wave. The 2 wave wave quite small and short lived, so possible we get a longer drawn out wave 4 followed by a wave 5 down to end the C wave. Here's a chart...

If this happens we could see the wave 1 up and wave 2 down into this Thursday to put in the last important low before we squeeze one last time for the wave 3, 4, and 5 to end some larger degree wave 5, inside an even bigger wave 3. I say that because the pullback coming to the 588.79 should be a wave 4 of a larger degree, so therefore the 655.66 coming top should end a wave 3 of a larger degree.  Here's the bigger picture chart..

The move down to the 588.79 FP could be just an A wave of the 4 down? I don't know yet as the speed of the decline will tell me as if it's a slow decline I'd look for that FP to hit on September 18th, but if it's fast, like it hits in late August, I have to think we'll bounce for a B wave and go lower again for a C wave into September 18th to complete that wave 4, which then the door will be open to fill the gaps on the ES with the lower one around 5300 or so. It's too early to know which one will play out, so for now I'll keep it simple and jut look for a low this Thursday to appear and then a rally up into OPEX for the hitting of the 655.66 FP on the SPY.

Have an blessed day.

Bummer... I really thought we could reach the FP this week but it looks like they are going to drag this out into the next week or the week after. This pullback looks like it will continue into early-mid next week and it could reach the 6250-6300 area, but I don't see much more. It's only going to tease the bears and get them all super short so they can use them as fuel for the last squeeze up, which the window for that top is of course going to be OPEX week.

The 11th/12th is the ideal top but with it being OPEX that Friday the 15th it might drag into that date. For this pullback it should end by next Thursday at the latest, and will probably be a choppy ABC mess. I'm not interested in taking any positions until the FP on the SPY is hit and that's up around the 6600's on the ES, which again, is not looking likely to hit this week.

I will continue to wait patiently as I know it's coming soon, and while it might happen in September I give that low odds now. I am now open for the September 18th date to be a bottom, instead of a top for a B wave bounce. I say that because if we top out in the OPEX week of August it will take about a month to do an ABC down, and that opens the door for September to be a low, which will fool the masses looking for an October crash.

The September 18th date WILL be a very important date... but maybe it's a low, not a high? I'm open minded to either but right now time is running thin on the top, the drop for the A wave and the rally for the B wave and another drop for a C... which all make an A wave, followed by an ABC up for a B wave, to all play out into that date.

I think I'm going to have to toss out the idea of an abc A down, abc B up, and 5 wave C to unfold and instead we will just see an A down, B up and C down that bottoms on September 18th. Sure, they will have smaller degree waves inside them, but my bigger ABC is on that would take about 3 months and would reach the 5300's to close those gaps on the ES. Now it's looking like this will unfold in a little over one month. I guess we could see drop that low but "time" is running out and if we only have a month, and we start at 6600+ the drop might only be to the 588.79 FP on the SPY, and the gap fills on the ES won't happen until after the final blow off top to 7000-8000 into early next year. Too much to speculate about right now for the big picture. I'll only say that I'm not doing anything until I see the 655.66 FP on the SPY hit.

Have a great weekend.

Yesterday did as expected, a drift lower in front of the FOMC, then the "wild swing" part, which wasn't too wild. Many FOMC meetings have big swings up and down in 1 minute candles, but this was just a pullback after the meeting that got reversed back up near the close. Then the squeeze started and if I'm right it will continue until we reach the 655.66 FP on the SPY. I don't know how fast it happens but with more earnings and the jobs number out tomorrow morning it could do it pretty quick. Wouldn't it be crazy to see it top into the close on Friday and go into the weekend with no one short. I have to think all the bears will give up if we go up another 150+ points today and/or tomorrow. I'm just licking my chops now at an opportunity to short the FP... if it hits this week.

Have an blessed day.

Nothing really to add today as the market will likely continue to chop all day until the FOMC, but it really won't be what the market wants to know. It's the earnings after the close and Thursday that should move the market. If I'm right we'll see a squeeze up to the 655.66 FP on the SPY and that should be the top. Then we pullback nicely. Will it happen? Who knows for sure but it will be hit at some point this year and this week has great odds.

Have an blessed day.

Yesterday did pretty much what I expected... sideways to slightly down. Again, this pattern of doing nothing but chop in front of FOMC meetings is the norm and it's playing out perfectly so far. Today should be a nothing day too... meaning a little up or a little down but go nowhere big. After the FOMC meeting is when the market tends to go up the following few days. Even if something viewed negative is said the market still (after some wild up and down swings possibly) doesn't tank.

Here is that FP again... and remember this was put out last year on December 16th, 2024, so "they" (SkyNet? "The Algo's?) put these out way in advance. 

It's like the Fed never want to be blamed for any sharp sell off in the market so the entire week of the meeting the market stays up. It's the following week where turns back down usually start. While I still don't know for certain that the FP on the SPY of 655.66 will be hit this week, it's certainly possible as it's not more then a couple hundred points higher on the ES/SPX and some good earnings from some major players this week might be all that is needed to cause the squeeze. Or something Trump says to spike the market? He certainly seems to know exactly when to tweet out some news to save the market at the exact spot needed.

Have an blessed day.

The window of time for a pullback has passed and now we go into August where we should see some volatility. It's usually a bearish month from a Seasonality perspective, and I'm starting to think that we are going to see the 655.66 FP on the SPY get hit before we pullback any. They are keeping the bears trapped and didn't even allow the small 3-4% pullback last week that should have happened.

That means the drop coming is not going to stop at just 3-4% and instead will be a 8-10% move instead. The 588.79 FP on the SPY from a week or so back would be my target low in an ABC correction where the A move reaches the 6150-6200 zone, then a strong B up for a lower high into mid-August, and then the C down to the 588.79 FP on the SPY finishes the move. But... "if" we hit the 655.66 FP into early August the rally up from the ABC pullback should ONLY make a lower high into my ideal target date of September 18th, and from that level we should see the C down to fill the gaps on the ES with the lower one being in the 5300's.

This scenario would destroy bulls and bears alike I think, and currently everyone is getting bearish, so a final squeeze up to 655.66 would kill the last bear. As far as "time" goes I'd say between August 1st and 8th would be the time window for this last move up to happen. I know, it's sounds crazy, but last week was the end of the bearish period from a cycles point of view and this week is not normally bearish. Plus, we are super close now to reaching that upside FP of 655.66, as it's just around 20 SPY points higher, which is roughly 200 SPX/ES points.

A move like that should be easy to do with any good news this week, and it should cause the DOW to make a new all time high as well... which I think they want to happen. Bottom line here is that everyone is expecting a pullback either "in front" of the FOMC this Wednesday, or after it. But most FOMC meetings (probably 80% of time I'd estimate) have a bullish outcome for that day and the rest of that week.

It opens the door for the move up to hit by this Friday, August 1st. Will it play out like this? Who knows for sure... only the insiders do. I have been guessing for months now on "when" the upside FP of 655.66 would be hit, and I thought it would happen either in August or September but I wasn't sure which. It now leans toward August, and early August so that the ABC down can play out to make the larger A wave. And then the larger B wave up into September 18th for a lower high should follow, which I thought might be when the 655.66 FP is hit, but now it's leaning toward that not happening as odds are shifting to the FP getting hit first in early August.

As for the short term... hard too say. The typical pattern is chop (slight "tiny" pullback) into the FOMC and up afterwards. Tons of earnings out this week on various companies, so we could see both directions for a change but probably not a lot on the downside until the last move up to hit the FP on the SPY is done.

Have an blessed day.

We did not see the exhaustion squeeze up yesterday that I was looking for on NVDA, as if we can see it happen in the first hour of today it should mark a high in it, and the rest of the market. I'm looking for about 6450 on the ES, and 177-180 on NVDA. A move like this will be a pierce of the rising trendline of major resistance, and I think it will only be to hit the stops before we rollover to start the much needed 300+ point pullback in the ES. With the FOMC next Wednesday we could bottom out right in front of it, and then squeeze hard afterwards. Below is the chart of NVDA...

As you can see we have already hit the rising trendline of resistance, and everyone likely shorted it. I'd guess that many more shorted it yesterday too, and you know the algo's are going to go after those stops before they drop it. The spike high on 11/21/24 was just that... a stop run on the bears. Then it dropped. Well, if we can get that squeeze today we should have the 3-4% pullback on it and the rest of the market. On the ES the target is 6450-6455, and if we can get that today, and an early squeeze up on NVDA in the first hour we should top and pullback into early next week. Will it happen? Who knows for sure! This market is super controlled right now so I'm probably going to be wrong again.

Have a great weekend.

The market pushed through the 6370-6400 zone yesterday with a late day squeeze that happen and more afterhours. It looks like an exhaustion move to me, but until it tops and does a fast 1-2 drop I have to just sit and watch as there's no way I'm chasing the market up higher from this level.

If it skips the pullback and goes straight up to the 655.66 FP on the SPY then that's fine as I'll just wait and short it there. Of course if we get a fast pullback of 200-300 points I'll get long on it and hold until the FP is hit. There's still a little time left, like today and tomorrow roughly. AFter that though, if we don't pullback, it's not likely going to happen until we reach the upside FP in August sometime.

Also, NVDA slammed right into a major trendline of resistance at last weeks high of 174.53, and it's looking like it wants one more crack at it today.   If it gets through it I think it will squeeze to 176-178 from all the shorts from the 174.53 high that placed stops overhead. Every trader see's the rising trendline that starts at the 6/20/24 high and connects to the 11/21/24 top.

It was an obvious short for everyone to take, so "if" the markets to dump it should take out the stops overhead first on NVDA (and the SPY/SPX/ES, etc...) in an exhaustion move, but I don't think it will stay above that rising trendline as the move up has been too parabolic and there's nothing but air below until the 150's. So, for today let's see if the bulls can do that last squeeze up and tank quickly with a 200-300 point drop into Friday or Monday.

Have an blessed day.

The market has pretty much ran out of time for a drop of 7-8% that I've been hoping for, which should unfold in an ABC pattern. That ABC would take a couple of weeks to finish I'd think and the bears really only have days left... meaning after this week end we should go back up again. So, what I think is going to happen is a short lived drop of 200-300 points, and then back up to new highs into August. My target is 6150-6200 on the ES, and I think we will see it before this week ends, but if we don't then window for the bears will close. Then we should go higher next week and start to look for August for the next pullback window.

Have an blessed day.

I had no internet yesterday, so the post I wrote wasn't posted, but it wasn't anything special anyway. Basically I said that I think we'll top on Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, between 6370-6400, which I see we did reach 6374. I'm not sure if that's it or not as they might make one more attempt today at that same zone, but it's looking likely that we will finally start a pullback this week.

How much is still not known as while I think we will eventually reach the 5900-6000 zone this first pullback might just be an A wave of an ABC. That means we "could" see the 6250's support zone hold on the first drop, which would be the A leg. Then the B up "might" drag out into the end of the week, followed by the C wave down into next week where (I hope) we go to the 588.79 FP on the SPY.

It's too hard to know for certain how it's going to unfold as any news event could change everything and we could see a panic flush in 2-3 days to complete the pattern. Anyway, that's what I see for now.

Have an blessed day.

Ok, so the new high yesterday killed the ABC pullback having already started. Clearly it NOT as we haven't topped out yet. My best guess is that yesterday was either the breakout move similar to 2/11/11 or 2/16/11, which if it's the 16th date then we should top next Monday, possibly Tuesday. If it's the 11th then we could drag out into the following week and top around Monday the 28th possibly?

The problem there though is that the decline would cause the month of July close with a nasty topping tail, and I don't think that's what the market has planned. More likely is that we are rallying back up that week after bottoming late next week, so that we can get a bottoming tail closing on the monthly candle. This will keep the bull market going into August and it's still bullish on the bigger picture as we will see that upside 655.66 FP on the SPY hit in August (or September) before we get a much bigger pullback.

For the short term I don't see much today as it's Friday and OPEX. I think we go up again (small) on Monday and possibly early Tuesday. Then I think we get a fast pullback of 2-3 days and while I don't know the level for the pullback it would benefit the bulls if it's a nasty drop to 6000 or so as it will wake up the bears so they will short the market and can be used for fuel for the squeeze afterwards.

Have a great weekend.

The next cycle low is next week on Thursday the 24th, so if we continue the choppy mess of small up's and down's into that date and don't really go anywhere I'd then expect that to end the pullback and start the rally up into August to run to the 655.66 FP on the SPY. From there we should see a 7-8% pullback, but again, I'm not positive on where we are at in the comparison of the 2010/11 pattern.

We might be in the early part of the 7-8% pullback now? If so, then we should hit the 588.79 FP on the SPY into the 24th, which will fulfill the 7-8% pullback. Then we rally hard the rest of July and into August for the 655.66 FP. It would then put in a nice bottoming tail candle on the monthly chart as that low would be retraced hard by the end of July, which would keep the market bullish on the bigger charts.

Of course if that pullback doesn't happen, and we just hold the 6200 lows (roughly) then the market is even more bullish then I thought it was. We'll have to just let it unfold but once the 24th (roughly) is here I'll be looking for a strong rally up to follow.

Have an blessed day.

The CPI yesterday did not cause some big drop, but we did see a small move down, which still looks like chop when you zoom out. Possibly it's the start of an ABC pattern similar to the 1/18/11 to 1/28/11 pattern? It won't repeat exactly of course but since I have the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY I know where the most important high will be at.

Between now and then we could continue to chop up and down for weeks until that final push to hit it happens. I don't know the "when" part but I still think it's early in August. For the short term, we could drift a little low to get the short term charts oversold and support below won't be damaged unless we break the recent lows around 6240, if that breaks we could drop to the low 6100's pretty fast.

I don't think it's going to happen, but anything is possible I guess. I've tried many times in the past several weeks to short this market but it never broke down and gave me the 7-8% pullback. So I've come to conclusion that it probably won't happen until we reach the upside FP on the SPY. So I'm just going to patiently wait for it to happen.

The Alternative Scenario...

If I'm wrong, on where we are currently when compared to the 2010/11 pattern, then we a little past the 2/18/11 high and starting the 7-8% pullback into a low like the 3/14/11 low.  That decline was an ABC and of course we would be in the A part now.  There was a choppy B wave from 2/14/11 to 3/4/11 back then before the C down happened.

The whole move back then was about 28 days, and if we are running about 3 times as fast now we could do it all now in 8-9 days.  But that's just a guess as we don't have to continue to repeat everything at 3 times the speed.  Patterns can repeat closer and it could take 28 days this time around too.

If we are in this spot instead of the 1/18/11 to 1/31/11 area then we might bottom for the C wave into the end July.  We'll have to just watch next week to see how the rally back up plays out.  If it stalls out and doesn't make a new all time high again, I'd have to start thinking we are indeed further along in the pattern and in this alternative scenario instead of the 1/18/11-1/31/11 period.

Have an blessed day.

So far, so good. We are still in a chop mode. This morning we see the futures grind higher.  We could see a 2% or so pullback anytime (100 or so points), and maybe that happens today after the CPI, who knows? But I still don't see much happening this week as it's OPEX and most likely it will remain in a tight range.

As I said in the prior post we appear to be tracking out the 2011/11 pattern again, but 3 times faster.  I'm not positive about where we are in that pattern but I think we are around the high going into 1/20/11, which was followed by an ABC sideways (tight range) pullback into around 1/31/11.  And that was followed by a rally up into the 2/18/11 high before a 7-8% pullback, which would be equal to roughly topping between August 5th-10th I'd estimate.

We could be going into the 1/31/11 top now and the 7-8% pullback is coming later this week and next, but I don't think that's the case.  I still lean toward that pullback happening in August, so we'll see.

I don't have anything else to add so I'll end it here with a short post.

Have an blessed day.