The market grinded higher yesterday and pretty much did a double top into the close. Today we could see a breakout that rallies up (finally) to hit the FP on the SPY of 655.66, which it should piece by some small amount just like it did with the April low. Remember that the FP's I had back then were for 483.07 and 483.62 on the SPY.

Rare to get two of them but they did mark the low of the correction. The downward pressure was strong then and the pierce through those FP's resulted in a low of 479.47 on the SPY, which is roughly 40 points on the SPX/ES. If we do that again we could see the 6600 area hit, but it's been my experience that "pierces" on the upside tend to be less then "pierces" on the downside. Maybe we only do 20 points through it... I'm not sure? But when we finally hit 655.66 on the SPY it's "Go Time" for me on shorting this pig.

If it goes a little higher I'm fine with that as it shouldn't be a whole lot. If we see it today it would be a perfect trap over the weekend to keep the bulls long seeing the breakout to a new high as bullish. They will all be looking for much higher prices, but for me I trust the FP's as while I may not know the "when" part on them hitting they have proven to me to be very accurate for "turns" in the market. If hit today I'll be shorting it. I still think the first low will be around the 11th/12th next week, which will be the A wave.

Then a choppy move up into OPEX with the FED day on Wednesday being the main focus the market will have. But it should be just a B wave up and the C down into the 22nd-24th should follow. It doesn't matter what Powell does, or doesn't do. The market will find a reason to continue lower and rate cut or no rate cut will be spun as bearish. If you have been patiently waiting like me for the upside FP to short then you need to stay alert today as we might see it.

Have a great weekend.

The market held its' move up yesterday from the low on Tuesday. I don't know the "when" part but I still think we will hit the 655.66 FP before we top. Possibly it hits tomorrow or next Monday? Those dates are the most likely as the market tends to pullback into the 2nd Thursday/Friday (next week) of each month to put in some kind of low before a move up into the 3rd week of the month where OPEX is at.

Now again, I'm not looking for much on the downside next week if we get the top early next week, but it could turn out to be an A wave. Then we get a B wave up into OPEX week as the market will likely be in a choppy mode into the FOMC on Wednesday the 17th. That B wave could trick everyone thinking that if Powell does a cut the market will rally, but if we hit the 655.66 FP beforehand I have to think any rate cut will cause the nasty C wave down into the 22nd-24th where we "could" hit the 588.79 FP on the SPY? At least we should hit the 6100's I think. As for the short term, I don't have much to add. We should float higher into tomorrow or Monday where we should (hopefully) reach the 655.66 FP on the SPY.

Have an blessed day.

Horizontal support held yesterday and we rallied back up half the decline. It's hard to figure out the wave count but I suspect we ended a wave 4 of some medium degree at the 8/4 low and we have been in a final wave 5 up ever since then. It's final target should be the 655.66 FP on the SPY but it's been chopping up and down on the way up to frustrate bulls and bears alike.

Possibly the pullback yesterday was a small wave 4 inside a medium wave 5 up? Or it's just part of a small wave 3 up from that 8/4 low where medium wave 5 up likely started? I'm just guessing that the small wave 1 up ended at the 6508 high on 8/15 and the pullback from it was a small wave 2... leaving the market in a small wave 3 up now. But it could have ended at the 6523 high, I don't know?

That would be a truncated wave 3, which I don't think is likely as it's not long enough when compared to the small wave 1 up. It was from 6251 to 6508, and that's 257 points, so if small wave 3 up started from the 6364 low on 8/22 then it would have to hit 6621 for small wave 3 to equal small wave 1, and that would hit (and pierce) the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which should complete the entire move.

But, small wave 4 down and small wave 5 up would still be needed to complete medium wave 5, and large wave 5 (from the April low where it all started. I guess that's possible as there's no rule with FP's that say they can't be hit once and retested again later. Meaning we could double top basically with small wave 3 and 5 both hitting and piercing the FP. Anyway, nothing to do (at least for me) but wait as I'm not shorting until the FP is hit.

Have an blessed day.

Very frustrating to get so close to hitting the FP to mark the top to stop shy and pullback. This non-sense is designed to trick bears into thinking we are starting the much excepted correction, but this is not it. We will hit the 655.66 FP before we see a 10% correction, but I have no idea on the "when" part? I continue to just patiently watch and wait as I can't successfully swing trade this market. I will say that the week after OPEX in September is typically a bearish one. This assumes we continue to chop the next few weeks and not hit the FP this week as then the correction should already be in play going into the end of the month, so it would be a bottom. But right now it's looking like we are going to see the market continue this slow dance for awhile longer.

Have an blessed day.

I want to examine the past a little today as while (again) I never know the "when" part that any real FP gets hit they eventually hit, and a "turn" happens the majority of the time. Some turns are big and others small but turns do happen. I have to use technicals to guess at how big the turn will be and I think it's obvious to everyone now that this market is very overbought now so the turn coming should be a big one.

When you look at the chart above you can see that the two FP's on the SPY from last year that I found on the Yahoo site did finally hit, and they hit perfectly and reversed hard afterwards. I have no reason to believe that the upside FP of 655.66 isn't going to be hit either. I don't know the day, but it should be this week. Maybe before NVDA earnings this Wednesday after the close, or after it? I don't know which but once it's hit we should see the market peak and rollover for the next 2 weeks. Patience is key here and those that wait will be rewarded.

Have an blessed day.

We didn't get the flush out first and squeeze afterwards that I was hoping for unfortunately.  I would have loved to have got long on it last Friday if it would have happened.  But the market just went straight for the squeeze. That's fine with me as I've been waiting for weeks now for the FP on the SPY to get hit and it's looking like it will be hit early this week... maybe today, who's knows?

It's a big short in my opinion as my history of these big FP's (one's that are way away from the current price when they come out) are that they are pretty much guaranteed to produce a turn. The intraday FP's are hit and miss... some hit the next day and some don't do anything as the market just ignores them.

They are "late fills" in most cases when they are close to the price level the market was at a day or so prior. But FP's that are no where near the current price levels are real "fake prints" that will be hit at some point in the future. This 655.66 FP came out on December 16th, 2024 and the price of the SPY was nowhere near it at the time, so it was (and "is") a real FP.

It's finally going to get hit this week it seems and we will get a "turn" back down from it. How much is anyone's guess but I think we could pullback to the FP from June 24th, 2025... which is 588.79, and when it came out the market was in an uptrend and had not see that price since June 2nd, 2025. This mean it's NOT a "late fill", as I've never seen a late fill that was done 22 days later.

No... they are always done with 24 hours (maybe 48 hours), but never 22 days. That is a real FP in my opinion and "could" be the target for the coming pullback? Again, I don't know the "when" part on any FP's but the market is ripe for a nice correction that gets the bears all woke up again and calling for a crash. But if this move down happens fast enough it will get the charts nice and oversold and that tells me it will be the end of the down move and that last rally up to 7400+ should follow.

NVDA has earnings after the close this Wednesday, so it could be used for that last move up to the FP on the SPY... that's assuming we don't hit it beforehand as then it might be used to tank the market.  Either way, once the FP is hit it's GO TIME for the Bears as we can see a 10% pullback happen before it's all done.

Have an blessed day.

Today could be a wild day with Powell speaking at Jackson Hole this morning at 10am EST. We could see some fake out moves, and my thoughts on that is that we see a sharp drop first to retest the 8/1 low, and then a big squeeze the rest of the day and into early next week where we could see the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY finally hit? Interestingly there's a 621.72 downside FP on the SPY from 8/4 (about 6266 ES), and if they do try to trick traders today (don't they always?... LOL) then we might see the first reaction after Powell is to go down hit that FP and then reverse hard the rest of the day.

It will trap all the shorts and take out all the longs in one fast move down, then up. It should also give the market the needed fuel to rally up to the 655.66 FP into next week. That will destroy the last bear as you know they have stops just above the current all time high (647.13 SPY), so another 80 points (ES/SPX) above that level will kill even the most diehard bears. Once that happens we can then get the much needed correction into the first 1-2 weeks of September where we "might" see the 588.79 FP hit on the SPY?

If we get a pullback from the 6600 ES zone to the low 5900's that's a good 10% and more then enough to work off a ton of overbought charts on various time frame. It will then allow the market to rally hard the rest of September and into October with everyone looking for another big drop. But it won't happen and instead we'll see 7400+ in a meltup that will end at some point with a crash. But who knows when that happens? For now let's just get past today and next week.

Have a great weekend.

Everything is looking good for one more move up to hit the FP on the SPY, which will probably happen into early next week.  Today will probably be a "pause" day as the market waits on Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at Jackson Hole.  Bulls will want the short term charts to get oversold so they can use anything he says as a reason to squeeze the bears.

Meaning a retest of the lows from yesterday would be ideal, and even piercing them would be fine too... just nothing too deep.  Patience is the key here as we know the upside FP will be the target high and we must just let it happen.

Have an blessed day.

The market is just too tired it seems to hit the FP this week as we are in a tiny pullback mode right now. I think this will end by this coming Monday and then we'll make the last move into mid-late next week, or at worst early the first week of September. I don't think it goes into September but it's possible for sure.

Right now we are close to the 20 day SMA on the SPX cash and right on top of it on the ES, so I think this zone will hold into Monday to frustrate all the bears (and bulls). Chop basically into Monday and then we finally get a strong move up that makes a new high to hit the FP on the SPY. After that I think it gets ugly as I'm now thinking we will drop hard into September 18th in what will feel like a crash move. But one step at a time. For now we are still in a chop mode into Monday most likely.

Have an blessed day.

The market is clearly waiting on some news event to breakout... what that is I don't know? Maybe it's some kind of peace deal that Trump puts together? Whatever it is we should see a fast move up to hit and pierce the FP of 655.66 on the SPY, and then the top is in and a nice pullback should follow. We are so close to it now that I just can't see it being put off into next month or the month after. We should hit it this week and then get just as fast a first move down for what should be the A wave. The B up will be a torture probably but the C down should bottom on September 18th I think. I could be wrong and that could be a top, but right now there's too much time left for just an A down and B up. It's more then enough time to complete the entire ABC I think. Now, if I'm wrong then we would then top on the B wave up into the 18th and start the C down afterwards. That's possible, but I first want to see the A down start and finish, so let's just give it more time to play out as we won't know until the first move is out of the way. That's all I have for now... nothing has changed. Still waiting on the FP before shorting.

Have an blessed day.

We should see some action this week as we will likely breakout of this range, whinch I think will first be up to the FP on the SPY of 655.66 to take out the shorts and trap the bulls. Then a sharp pullback the rest of the week and probably into early next week. I think we will see the 6245 support zone tested, and probably pierced before we turn back up for a bounce into the end of the month.

If this goes as I think it will "that bounce" will be a lower high for a B wave with the drop this week into early next as the A wave. Then the C wave will drag out into September 18th where I think the low will be put in. How low can it go you ask? I don't know but since I don't think we will top until the 1st quarter of 2026 (the final high before a bear market), I suspect the ES will want to fill the gap at 5300 or so.

Now that's the dream pullback. We could also just pullback to the 588.79 FP on the SPY, which is roughly where the 200 Day Simple Moving Average is at (and will be into 9/18). One of these two scenario's should play out. Then it can start the massive rally to 7000-8000 with tons of bears shorting every move up thinking the April lows are going to be taken out... but they won't. That's the big picture, and it's not changed really from last weeks' thoughts. As for the short term I remain looking for the FP to get hit before we rollover, and ideally it happens early this week.

Have a blessed day.

I wasn't able to do a post yesterday as a storm knocked out my power and damaged my Windows 8.1 computer that has all my notes and stuff. I spent most the day trying to get my newer Windows 11 computer to connect to the internet as while it would boot up just fine (unlike the Windows 8.1 that won't boot at all) I could not get back online. My old Windows 7 computer was the only one working just fine... LOL.

I never have figured out what happen but I think some electrical surge much have went though the internet line and (it's hard wired) and caused the "No DHCP Server Found" problem. I tried installing a wireless card but it wouldn't work either. Finally I went to Best Buy to get a USB Wireless one and it worked for my Windows 11 computer that I do the charts on.  I'm still working on the Windows 8.1 computer that I write the posts on and do my research, but should have it back up over the weekend.

Once I got my charts back up I see that I didn't miss anything yesterday in the market. I don't really have anything new to add. I still think we won't top until the 655.66 FP is hit, and that could be any day now. We are close and that's all that matters. I'm just waiting for it so I can short it.

Have a great weekend.

The grind continues as every early pullback gets pushed back up throughout the rest of the day. If I didn't have the FP as the target I would have already shorted this market I'm sure. Now we have a new all time high on the ES and Nasdaq. The DOW is close but I don't know if it's going to make it or not? My focus is still on the 655.66 FP on the SPY, and of course we should pierce it a little.

Everything is lining up nicely now for it to be hit this week and top out the market. I don't know which day of course but it should hit before the week ends. There may or may not be some exhaustion fast squeeze... I don't know? Many times tops just quietly happen and no one really notices them.

That could be the case here as we are basically only about a 120 points or so away now since the high on the SPY as I write this post Tuesday evening is 643.24, which is 12.42 SPY points away and that's roughly 124 or so points on the ES/SPX. Next week is still looking likely to cause a nasty pullback, which could last into my September 18th ideal target date... who knows? I only know that's a ritual day and should be a top or bottom, and right now it's looking more like a bottom.

That could change of course as maybe the first leg down last into the end of August (the A wave) and then the B wave rally back up tops on the 18th of September? I tend to think the entire ABC pullback will end into that date but I could be wrong. We need to see how fast the first pullback happens to gauge the time needed for the B wave rally. For now though I'm just patiently waiting on the upside FP to get hit so I can short the pig.

Have an blessed day.

Nothing to add really as the market chops in a range not breaking down hard, nor breaking out. While it could breakdown instead of up I still think it will breakout and run to the FP on the SPY. But if it's going to happen it must be this week as next week is a panic week, which should be down, not up. Yes, it could be a panic up but with the market already up this high I have to think it will be down.

Have an blessed day.

This week still has the best odds I think of the FP of 655.66 on the SPY getting hit. OPEX weeks are typically bullish or choppy as market makers pin the price level to some area to inflict maximum pain on option holders. What that level is I don't know? But again, they usually focus on making "puts" expire as they tend to be sellers of them. It's next week where we should see a correction start. As for today, I don't have much to add that hasn't already been covered last week, so this update is a short one.

Have an blessed day.

The pullback yesterday looked like wave 4 of a smaller degree and from that low yesterday we should be starting the final wave 5 up, which will probably breakdown into 5 smaller waves. If all goes well we will hit the FP sometime next week, which should make the bears capitulate. Then we can see a real correction happen, which at least the 588.79 SPY FP should be hit (5900's ES), or if it wants a deeper one we should fill the gap around the 5300's on the ES. All of this should play out into September 18th I think. That correction will be the bigger wave 4 that everyone has been looking for. From there we face rip the rest of the year.

Have a great weekend.

Well... my wave count got busted yesterday as the high of my wave 1 got taken out, which now opens the door for the market to be in an ABC up now for a larger B wave... which might reach a double top? Then we get the C down to take out the low to complete a larger degree wave 4. My wave count from yesterday had the wave 4 completing already at the low last week but now it's looking like it's subdividing into an ABC that should put in a slightly lower low in the coming days. Here's that new chart below...

Now I'm also covering the other possibility that the larger degree wave 4 did bottom last last week and we are in a wave 3 up inside the final wave 5, which is shown in RED on the chart. It's very similar to my chart on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, except it ended the smaller wave 2 pullback already, whereas I was thinking it was going to unfold in an ABC down and that we should have a C wave for a higher low still coming. I thought we'd see it Thursday/Friday, but that can't happen now as it will be a different wave if we get any pullback at all today and/or tomorrow.

It's going to be hard to figure this out going forward but we should pullback at the double top for some amount to give us a clue. If it happens early next week then I think it will be shallow and that we will be on the wave count in RED, whereas the move down is a wave 4 and a wave 5 up will take us to the 655.66 FP on the SPY into next Friday or sooner. But if the pullback starts today or Friday we might get the C wave down to end the wave 4 where we could reach a slightly lower low. If that happens I don't see the FP on the SPY hitting by the end of next week, but I guess anything is possible?

I get the feeling we will hit the FP into early next week, then pullback small for a wave 1, and back up for a wave 2 into Friday. Then we'll get a much bigger drop starting the week of the 18th, which then could reach the 588.79 FP on the SPY. The wave 5 up (in RED) will complete an even bigger wave pattern where we then drop into a low on September 18th to complete a much larger degree wave 4 (ABC probably), and the gap fill around 5300 is very possible. Then the final 5th wave up to 7500-8000 starts and goes into the first quarter of 2026.

The point here is that many people are now looking for a C wave down in the coming days to complete a wave 4 so they can get long for the wave 5 up... which most assume will be a major new high. But I have the FP of 655.66 on the SPY (6600 ES?) for an important top, and it might be at that level that the real wave 4 down starts that most think is already in play now. Yes, it's a smaller degree wave 4, but many people are looking for that wave 4 that goes to the 200 day SMA and/or the 5300 gap fill level. That should come, but probably after we hit the upside FP on the SPY first so that the smaller degree wave 4 and 5 can complete to allow a bigger (abc) wave 4 pullback to play out.

Have an blessed day.

Again, the market is doing as expected with the waves, but it rarely works out this smoothly. There's usually some tricks that try to get traders trapped on the wrong side before the real move, which too me is the squeeze for the wave 3 inside the wave 5 up.

It still should start from a low this Thursday but of course I could be off a day and maybe it happens on Friday? But for now we appeared to have ended the wave 1 up inside wave 5 and started the ABC pullback for the wave 2 down. We "might" have finished the A wave and if so, there's a B up coming that should not take out the recent high for wave 1 (6377 ES), which then leaves the C down to follow, which then will complete the wave 2 down.

Oddly, this is lining up for the ol' "Pit Bull Low (coined phase by Marty Schwartz)" where back in the old days (before daily options, when there was only the monthly one's) it was common to see the market bottom on the Thursday/Friday of the week prior to OPEX week. Market Makers would sell "puts" to the retail and then squeeze the market back up into the 3rd Friday (again... OPEX week) to make all the puts expire worthless. Then the market would do the best pullback after OPEX week ended, which is usually the last week of the month. This is lining up to happen again it seems as (if) we hit the upside FP of 655.66 into OPEX week the following week should have a really nice drop. How much I don't know?

But if it's slow then the 588.79 FP is probably all we'll see. If that is hit too fast, like into the end of the month, I'd look for another drop later in September to the 5300's to fill that gap on it. From there we should rally hard into the rest of the year. Several different paths the market could take but this is looking quit possible.

Have an blessed day.

Not much to add today other then the market appears to have completed the ABC down fo the wave 4 already and the C wave doesn't need a final wave 5 down inside it as it's finished. It suggests we are in a wave 1 up and have completed 4 out of 5 waves inside it.

Once it's done (probably today), we should see the wave 2 down play out into this Thursday. It should be an ABC but of course doesn't have to play out like that. It could be a one wave move, but odds are low because of how much time is left until Thursday. Either way, once it's finished we should start a wave 3 up inside a bigger wave 5, that should complete sometime next week.

I suspect it completes midweek and does a smaller degree A down and B (or 1 down and 2 up?) going into next Friday so that it's ripe for a nasty drop starting the week of the 18th, which is where I think we get the pullback to the 588.79 FP on the SPY. It's leaning now toward September 18th being a low, which would be the large wave 4 correction that we've been looking to happen for months now.

If it plays out this way we'll see a massive blow off top for the last wave 5 to 7000-8000 happen in the following months. We should top out in early 2026, like in the first quarter, and then the real bear market starts. All just speculation for now, but the short term should be easier to figure out, and that's a pullback for a higher low into this Thursday.

Have an blessed day.

Last Friday continued the pullback and lost the support of the 6250-6350 zone briefly but closed back inside the lower range. I'm still unsure on whether or not this support is taken out and we go deeper to the next support down around 6100 or so, but time-wise we should see a bottom by this Thursday roughly.

From that low we should rally up into OPEX week and there's still good odds that we hit the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which will be roughly 6600 on the ES. Now if we fall off a cliff this week and hit the 588.79 downside FP into Thursday everything will change as then I'll have to look for the upside FP getting hit in September. But right now there's still good odds of this happening.

On a short term we probably have declined in an ABC where the B wave up did a slight "throw-over" an inched out a slightly new higher high. From there we dropped in the 1,2, and 3 waves inside the C wave. The 2 wave wave quite small and short lived, so possible we get a longer drawn out wave 4 followed by a wave 5 down to end the C wave. Here's a chart...

If this happens we could see the wave 1 up and wave 2 down into this Thursday to put in the last important low before we squeeze one last time for the wave 3, 4, and 5 to end some larger degree wave 5, inside an even bigger wave 3. I say that because the pullback coming to the 588.79 should be a wave 4 of a larger degree, so therefore the 655.66 coming top should end a wave 3 of a larger degree.  Here's the bigger picture chart..

The move down to the 588.79 FP could be just an A wave of the 4 down? I don't know yet as the speed of the decline will tell me as if it's a slow decline I'd look for that FP to hit on September 18th, but if it's fast, like it hits in late August, I have to think we'll bounce for a B wave and go lower again for a C wave into September 18th to complete that wave 4, which then the door will be open to fill the gaps on the ES with the lower one around 5300 or so. It's too early to know which one will play out, so for now I'll keep it simple and jut look for a low this Thursday to appear and then a rally up into OPEX for the hitting of the 655.66 FP on the SPY.

Have an blessed day.