We reached the 6800 level last Friday, so that level of resistance should produce a pullback of some degree. The problem is that the bearish window of time has passed now and we are entering a bullish window. Therefore any decline we get this week is likely to be small and probably a "1 day wonder". Unless some unknown event happens I don't see more then 2-3% (at the most), and it should happen early this week (if it's going to happen?).
The last half of this month is very bullish from prior cycles, so I'd look for it to produce the strongest move up, like a wave 3 inside a wave 5 or something. Basically after OPEX on the 17th we could see an explosive rally that takes us into the first week of November where a significant top could appear. We could see 7400+ into that period, and if we do reach those insane levels the market will be ripe for a crash in November.
In the short term we could see the market carve out a wave 1 and 2 of the bigger wave 5, into OPEX next week. As for today I don't really have any thoughts about it. All wave 1's and 2's are hard to figure out the day to day movement. If one was interested in catching a wave 3 up I think we'll see it after OPEX.
The bearish window of time is ending now from cycle work. It could carry into Monday or Tuesday but after that it's very bullish from prior cycles. We could start the big move up to 7400+, and if we don't get a good pullback in the next few days (seems very unlikely), we could see those highs hit going into November. At this point, with time running out for the bears, I don't see any more then a 100-200 point pullback at the most. We are likely inside some kind of wave 3 up now, inside the final wave 5, which started at the 9/25 recent low. So "if" get a pullback in the next day or two that low should not be taken out.
Well, we have new all time highs now, so it's not looking good for a pullback. I thought we could see some kind of move down, like maybe to the 640.44 FP, but it's not looking likely right now. The more the market goes in a sideways range the more the base forms and that leads to a breakout like we had yesterday.
Maybe it's a fake breakout, but it's not looking good for the bears now. I have now way of knowing if the Fed's have put QE into the market yet or not, but if they haven't then we could still see some kind of small pullback soon. I really can't get bearish here when I know the Fed is either already putting QE in the market or will do so soon.
If the bears get any pullback it might be just a 1-2 day wonder and will be bought up by the bulls that have missed this rally. Nothing else to add here, so I'll keep this update short. Next resistance is around the 6800-6820 zone that I've been talking about for quite awhile. That could be where we see the only pullback before the massive squeeze.
Still in the middle of nowhere as the market looks like it's still in a B wave up with the A down from the all time high last week. It could breakout and do a stop run to take out the shorts to finally hit the 6800 ES level, and then rollover. And event could cause that fast squeeze, which is less then a 100 points from the the chop zone the market was at yesterday. Cracks in the market are showing up though, as covered in the video below...
I still don't know what the plan is... crash it from here and hold the 666 ritual on the SPY, and then inject massive QE at some point during the decline. But will that be a crash, or just a 10% or so correction? If they do that then we could see the 6000 zone hit (maybe the 588.79 FP?), and that's where they bring in QE to get the market squeezing hard for the last mega rally to 7400+ over the next few months.
If they do that they will shoot all their bullets and won't be able to stop the move down that will follow after the market finally exhaust itself from that last move. Who knows how high it could go? It might reach 7600, or 7700... and the top could drag into early 2026. I don't have any upside FP's for targets up there, but it's very possible if the massive QE covered in the video's I've posted the last few days actually come true. I mean, they don't have to let it decline any really.
They could chop all week to form a nice base and the launch the QE next week to start the big squeeze. The only thing that suggests we could get a good correction first (not a crash) is the 666 ritual. In 2009 the SPX bottomed there and never looked back as it rallied for years afterwards, so the 666 SPY closing price could be used to market a very important high before a crash drop (well over 10%... like 20%, 30% or more?), and then they put in the QE and we skip the bear market in 2026 as if we reach 30% or more in a drop this year the market will reset and can go up for several years before another crash like drop will happen. Then we'd see 10,000+ on the SPX/ES... who knows for sure? I'm just as lost on the next big move as everyone else. Only the insiders know where it's going, and unfortunately I'm not one of them.
A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market still hasn't decided to make the next move. It's clearly waiting on something... probably the government shutdown news. I'm only leaning toward a quick pullback to the 640.44 FP on the SPY at this point, and then another big squeeze up in the market.
Another video I found is also talking about the possible injection of QE coming into the market soon. That video is below...
That's 2 different people talking about QE coming soon, and then we still have money coming into the market from oversea due to fear of a war and having their accounts frozen by the government. It's just looking more and more like we will chop this week to form a base before the next big squeeze higher.
We'll be lucky to get any good pullback to get long at from the looks of it. But with some events this week that could rattle the market we might still get a big one day drop of a few hundred points... who knows for sure? The big problem is that we don't know "when" this QE is going to be put into the market. Just like I said yesterday, they could put the money into the market to prevent any large decline, or let it tank big first and then put the QE at the bottom. Very hard to figure out here.
The market is getting short term oversold, but should have another push lower before any good bounce. There's still a chance we haven't topped yet. Yes, I know we had a ritual number high on the SPY with the 666 close last week, which could be equal to the 666 low in March of 2009, but without some "event" to cause a sharp drop to break support the market might go back up higher again.
I watched a video yesterday that spoke about the Fed preparing for a large QE injection by buying long term bonds to keep the interest on them stable. What I don't know is... "do they plan on doing that to create the last big squeeze to 7400+?", or "are they preparing to do that after the crash at the bottom of the market?" If the QE is to fuel the last leg up from here we should know this week as the pullback will not happen this week that many are hoping for, and instead it will hold support.
Quite frankly this market is so heavily manipulated that it seems impossible to trade it. Every pullback we get is stopped magically just at support that if broken a very large drop would follow. Also, let's not forget the common pattern that the market does around the end of each month, or the beginning... which is that it makes a "turn".
So if we hold support into tomorrow, and/or into the first then sadly I have to be open for the mega squeeze to happen the rest of this month, which is going into a low. If we go up into tomorrow. Wednesday, or even Thursday, and put in a high (could be higher higher or lower) then we could be in a B wave up with a C down to follow. At that point I'd be looking for the 6400 zone into next week.
I can't make the market do anything, and just have to be open to change if the does. Meaning... I don't think 6800 will be the high and hold the next move up if we see QE quietly come into the market, and instead I would have to think the 6756 high (ES) was "close enough"... meaning that rally was supposed to hit 6800 on that run but it failed on that run up, so it could be off the table now? Or we hit it mid-week and the drop.
For any big breakout though I'd want to pullback one more time early this week to bottom around support and chop there all week to "base" before starting that next big squeeze. Currently the market is looking more like the opposite will happen and we will rally up into mid-week, and that will open the door for a C wave down (even if we see a slightly higher high... 6800?).
Today and tomorrow should give us the next direction. If we chop, pullback small, and hold support (6600's) then short term charts will get oversold and I'll have to give up on the crash and look for the next big rally to start next week (Note: I don't lean this way, but have to cover it as "possible").
The market has been selling off in front of the government shutdown fears on the 30th, but that might not be enough to cause a crash. It might take something else to cause it... who knows for sure what will be blamed? The point here is that everything is a little too bearish with talks of crashes on social media, and we didn't get some big gap down this morning, so I'm losing my mega bearish bias and just focusing again on the technicals.
Yes, we could still see a nice correction in October, but not 50%... which would be a crash move. It might be 10-20%, I don't know, but it should setup the next and final move up for the 5th wave, and then the crash can happen. If we see at least a 10% correction then that final high should push out in time into 2026.
In summary... Plan A is that we continue higher into mid-week to make a B wave, leaving a C down to unfold into next week with 6400 minimum as a likely target (maybe more). Plan B is that we will end some kind of medium (or larger?) degree wave 4 down with one more small pullback this week to complete the smaller 5 wave decline, which should retest the lows and build a base to launch the next big rally up next week (a larger degree wave 5?) that will reach 7400+ into early November.
One of the two plans should unfold here and if it's Plan A then the C down will be much welcomed and should be perfect to get a great long for the last wave 5 up into November, possibly December for the blow off top (depending on how deep of course as the deeper the pullback the more time will be needed for the last rally up).
As we close out this week the high put in on Monday, with a 666 close on that day on the SPY, has held and we've been declining slowly ever since. Today should be a "pause" day where the market goes slightly up (like a small degree wave 4, inside the first A wave down), which should setup Monday for a wave 5 down to complete the first series of waves down.
I don't know where it will bottom but if it's a nice drop we should see a nice ABC up into mid-late next week, to make the B wave. Then the bigger C wave down should start and take us into mid-October. This could all accelerate into a shorter time frame though... "if" we get some kind of "event", and that could be a Biblical one, (which would cause a crash), or some other unknown event.
The market already knows about the government shutdown coming at the end of this month, so that's probably priced in now. But maybe they don't believe it will really happen and if it does the market will taken by surprise and tank... who knows for sure? It could be something else too, but whatever it is I can't foresee. I only know that something big is coming. The military has been putting up new fences around the White House, and apparently J.D. Vance called in tons of Admirals and Generals to the White House yesterday... for shat I don't know? But it sure seems like they are preparing for something big to happen soon.
Nothing to add really. The market is declining slowly here at first, and that's quite common. Time to just sit and watch and let it play out. I still think the top is in as that 666 SPY close on the day of the high is likely the ritual clue that we won't see 6800.
Today is the 24th and as you may have watched in yesterdays video by Bo Polny this is an important day. However, only God knows the exact day but it should be before September ends. I can say for certain that "if" millions of people disappear in 24 hours the stock market is going to crash. It's not going to hold at the 2 lower FP's I have of 640.44 and 588.79 on the SPY. Not in one day of course but we'll see a crash like move. Another interesting video is from Steve Quayle, who isn't a trader but was told by his sources that the market would crash within the next 1-2 weeks, and also Ed Dowd thinks the same thing. Steve still it will be a 50% crash, but again, he's NOT a trader or forecaster for the market. That's not his specialty. But I have to keep it in the back of my mind as "possible". Here's that video...
Now if we don't see a Biblical event then I'd assume we'll pullback to the 640.44 FP on the SPY, bounce and then drop again to the 6000's area where support is at. This could be blamed on the Government Shutdown worries (or "event" if it does really shutdown?). Something will be blamed on it, and guessing is pointless as it could CPI numbers, Job Numbers, Powell saying something the market doesn't like... who knows? I'm patiently waiting though as some big is coming, and this month is the most likely period for it to happen. If it's mild, and just a technical pullback, then we should see a bullish October with much higher prices. If it's Biblical then look out below!
Another squeeze yesterday on the bears and another ritual number close, but on the SPY this time, not the SPX. We closed at 666.84 on it, but I don't know if it means anything yet as the market just keeps going up and up and up with no pullbacks. After this week is over there's nothing bearish yet... meaning the month of October should start a very large rally that could hit 7400+ into November. Yeah, that's crazy but very possible... that's "if" we don't get a nasty drop this week.
I'm very puzzled as to why we haven't pulled back some already. But Martin Armstrong talked about capital coming to America from Europe due to them trying to get a war going with Russia, and when that happens they will lock down the banks so no money can leave. It seems like they have been pouring the money into the stock market now (according to Armstrong). Here's a video of him explaining it...
I thought we'd see some kind of nasty drop before these big move up that he's talking about, but if it doesn't happen this week then I don't think it will happen. It's super hard to figure this out as everything that I thought was going to happen just failed. The only thing left here it seems is some crazy unknown event like what Bo Polny thinks is coming. His video is below...
I don't have anything more to add that hasn't already been said already. It's this week for the pullback as time is running out for the bears. October is expected to be super bullish (yeah, that sounds crazy, but it is what it is).
This is the week where "if" we are going to get a good pullback it should happen during this period. Unless something really crazy happens I'm only looking for the 640.44 FP on the SPY to get hit and pierced. But, it needs to happen quickly for it to be "the low", as if it's too slow the door will be open for it to "only" be an A wave with a B up into the 29th-3rd, and a C down to possibly the 588.79 FP into early October.
I don't give that high odds right now, but it's possible. This all assumes we have topped with the high last Friday, or will top out into the 6800 resistance zone. The ES got within 70 points of it, so it could have one more push left in it, but it could also fall shy and have topped already. The SPX hit 6666.50 during the last half hour of Friday and held that high until the las 5 minutes where another push up higher to 6671.82 happened, then as the last minute it pulled back to close at 6664.36, which certainly stands out with the ritual number.
But I don't think it's "the top" like the March 6th, 2009 low of 666.79 was "the bottom". We still have the big wave 5 up yet to come where we should see 7400+ happen, and likely into early 2026. But if it was to do it into this November I've have to say we've topped early. That's all too far into the future to worry about for now. The only thing I'm interested in is this week as I want to see the pullback happen.
We had another rally yesterday as the market just refuses to have any correction, so you know when we finally see one it's going to be a mini-crash move. There's too much "extreme" on the move up now in many different measurements. But "when" is the big question? I don't think it will be easy to figure out, and while the next resistance zone where a top "could" happen is the 6800 zone on the ES there's nothing to say that we haven't already topped.
There are some ritual number clues that appeared yesterday that are interesting. The SPY hit a premarket high of 665.10, which is 6, 6, and (5+1=6)... or 666. The SPX hit 6656.80, which has three six's in it, so that's a 666 code. And most interesting was the date of 09/18/2025, which is 9, (1+8=9), and (2+0+2+5=9), or 999, and that's a 666 hidden code.
Back on 03/06/09 (drop the 20 in this case) we saw a low of 666.79 on the SPX, which was an "in your face" 666 code. Some are hidden and others obvious, and I could reach some on the date of 03/06/2009 to be a hidden 911 day as 0+3+0+6=9 and 2+0+0+9=11, and 911 was of course a false flag event done by the deep state satanists. The number 911 is the number people call for an emergency too, which is probably another reason they did it on that day.
And while I don't know all there hidden codes those numbers do seems important too them. So "if" the current high from yesterday hold today I might risk another short over the weekend as while I might have an upside target of resistance of 6800 there's nothing to guarantee it will be hit. And with all the things talked about that might happen on the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th we could wake up Monday with a big gap down. This is more of a gut feeling here then anything technical. The market is still in an uptrend and it might continue much longer then most could believe, but I'm a risk taker so I might just take one more shot at a short.
Very tricky yesterday as the market went up and down, up and down, up and down to never breakdown or breakout. And today it breaks out and appears to be making the move up to the next target of 6800 on the ES. I thought we'd see the new 640.44 FP hit and then back up but that didn't happen. I can only think that once this market tops the drop is going to be super fast and feel like a mini-crash move. I have nothing else to add so I'll end here.
Well, we may or may not have topped? I say that because another new FP was found and it's at 640.44 on the SPY. That's only about 200 SPX/ES points lower now, so it's possible that we might see some crazy move happen where we drop to that level right after the FOMC meeting and then reverse back up on Thursday into Friday where we could (I know this is crazy) reach 6800 on the ES to take out the stops above the current all time high of 6696... and then we fall off a cliff next week. Below is that new FP on the SPY...
Now I said yesterday that I could go over all the prior FP's (at least the last year or so of them), and that's what I've done in the chart below. You'll see that most all of the FP's produce a nice "turn" up or down after they are hit, but a couple of them the market just "paused" and after some time it continued in the same direction. One of them was definitely a failed FP as it never hit and "paused" or "turned", which is the one in the March-April drop. There wasn't any reaction at it, so it failed for sure.
Currently we have went past the 655.66 FP and appear to have topped at 662.65, which isn't that much when you look at it on the chart above but point-wise it's a lot... especially when you short at the FP and have to ride out those points against you. I'm not sure whether or not to label it a failed FP as we have started to go down some now. I'll need to give it more time to see if it turns out to produce a nice turn or not.
If we drop to the new FP of 640.44 then I'll label it a success, and then if we rally back up to 6800 or so into this Friday (I don't have any FP for that target) and rollover again I'll be looking for the 588.79 FP to be hit over the next two week. Or, we just by pass the 640.44 FP completely and continue lower all week... or maybe we bounce small from it for a B wave up with it being the A down? But I have to think that if we get a fast 200 point drop today we will see a very strong rally from it tomorrow and into Friday... that's "if" too many bears are short.
If this the drop catches the bears sleeping and traps the bulls then we should only go sideways to slightly up on Thursday/Friday after hitting the 640.44 FP. Lot's of possible moves here, so just be ready for something tricky. Oh... the other possible move is to go up to the 6800 target after the FOMC an into Thursday or Friday. But that 640.44 new FP means something, so it has to come into play some how I think. We'll see.
Well, I'm not too happy about the continued move up yesterday. It's pierced through more then I expected, and with the FOMC meeting tomorrow I have to wonder if I missed something? These big FP's do pierce by some small amount but they usually produce a turn by now. I have to be open to this one failing at this point (first one I've seen in a decade or more that I can remember), and if it does then the FOMC meeting will trick the bears with a squeeze to 6800+ (ES) into Thursday (maybe Friday?) to kill every bear left alive... especially those expecting the Fed to cause a big drop.
It should still happen but we might see a bear squeeze first as the news of a rate cut is viewed positive from traders. I have to admit that most (probably 80-90%) of all FOMC meetings produce green days the Thursday and Friday that follow them. It's always the week afterwards where "turns" can happen. Plus this is a Quad Witching OPEX, and that could be another reason to keep the market up higher until all the puts expire in the various option classes. I didn't think about this as I have been so focused on the 655.66 FP to get hit, so I could be wrong here? If we go sideways and sell off after the meeting then it's still a success but if we go up after it then I will be wrong and 6800+ into Friday is likely.
This is the week where the market should start down, and accelerate into the expected low window of 9/22 - 9/24. The FP was hit last week and pierced a little as it commonly does. All eyes will be on the FOMC this week, so we probably won't see too much on the downside until after the meeting. I still think we are going to drop hard this week and next but it should start slowly. Below is a chart of the SPY with my thoughts...
If I'm wrong we'll start another powerful leg up to 6700-6800 after the meeting instead of tanking. But everything tells me we are going down, not up. The cycles point to a down move the next 2 weeks, and I have no reason to think this time will fail. The "how much" is the hard part to know, so I guess it's possible that it's really small, but considering how overbought we are I just don't see that happening.
The big Fake Print from December of last yesterday was hit and pierced yesterday. Now we wait and see. Ideally the market chops in a slow move down into the FOMC next week where everyone thinks it's a bottom and a rate cut from them is bullish. But it should not be bullish as the cycles says we go down regardless of what is said or done.
I think we will drop hard in a fast 4-6 day move down with the FP of 588.79 on the SPY as a very possible I don't have anything else to add as I've covered everything many times this week and next week.
My thoughts and prayers continue to go out to Charlie Kirk's family. I know he's in Heaven with Jesus but it's still unreal to know he's gone as he was just too young. I guess the deep state demonrats are happy as Charlie was making a real impact with bring kids back to God and common sense. May God send Angels to his wife and kids.
The market got close yesterday to the FP but still feel shy. It will be hit soon I'm sure, and when it does I'll be shorting it. Nothing has changed since Mondays post. We could still see a pullback into tomorrow and then a move up to the FP... or we rally today or Friday to hit the FP? I don't which one but once it is hit the top is in I think.
On another note, I'm very sad that Charlie Kirk was murdered by some nut job leftist demoncrat satanist yesterday. Charlie was great Christian man and loved by millions for saying what many would like to say but are afraid to. I know he's in heaven but he was so young and it's just not fair to see him gone this soon. I hope the assassin gets the death penalty, and I would gladly volunteer to pull the trigger to send him to hell.
Monday and Tuesday were choppy sideways day, but into the close yesterday (and afterhours) we saw a push higher to "almost" breakout to a new high. Clearly the market is teasing bulls and bears both as it dances between support and resistance. At some point it will breakout and go up and hit the 655.66 FP on the SPY where we should top out at. Will that be today? I don't know, but if so I'll be shorting it. If not, then I'll do nothing as even if we go back down I still don't think it will be a lot and will find support lower to bottom at by tomorrow or Friday. The move down from the all time high of 6541.75 to the low of 6452 might be an A wave of some smaller degree and the rally up from there, to the current high, is just a B wave. That suggests a C down is coming next, but I think it will hold above the 6360-70 area of support, which then sets up the last rally next week into the FOMC on Wednesday where we should hit the upside FP on the SPY. Of course I'm writing this post Tuesday night and by the morning I could wake up to see a breakout and a run up for the FP. Therefore this all assumes that we don't breakout. If we do then the wave count is wrong. I'm only guessing that we'll hit the upside FP next week, but I could be wrong and it hit this week. Patience is the key here as I know it's going to hit soon, and I'm sitting on my hands until it does.
Games, games and more games. The market (SkyNet?) clearly knows the final high before the big drop is the 655.66 FP on the SPY and it keeps teasing everyone by getting close but stopping short by a few points. So far the high has come in on the 5th/8th as I guessed at on my September 3rd morning update.
A low should be around the 11th this week (roughly of course) and then we go back up into the next turn window of the 15th-17th... but the 17th is the FOMC, so that's most likely going to be the top. If they front run it though, and hit the FP beforehand, the meeting should be blamed for the selloff. The market loves to inflict maximum pain on both the bulls and the bears, and if it waiting until the 17th to start the selloff the down move will be over with very quickly as the expected bottom is between the 22nd-24th, which isn't much time from the 17th. I'd love to see it play out like this personally as it will create the most bearishness due to the speed of the drop.
And that will of course be even more powerful for the bulls as all those bears will get a mega squeeze put on them after the low is put in. I don't know what the low will be but my focus will be on the dates where a low should happen. If it reaches the 588.79 FP on the SPY from 6/24/2025 then I'll be super happy and will go long will both feet and hands. The move up should be explosive and reach new all time highs again before the end of October. I think we could even reach 7000 or more by then "if" we get this scenario. If instead we decline slowly into the downside FP it will be much harder to rally that fast. We need to see the short lived flash crash type move from the 17th to the 22nd-24th for the squeeze to happen that quickly, and I think we have a pretty good chance of that playing out.
