Bummer... I really thought we could reach the FP this week but it looks like they are going to drag this out into the next week or the week after. This pullback looks like it will continue into early-mid next week and it could reach the 6250-6300 area, but I don't see much more. It's only going to tease the bears and get them all super short so they can use them as fuel for the last squeeze up, which the window for that top is of course going to be OPEX week.

The 11th/12th is the ideal top but with it being OPEX that Friday the 15th it might drag into that date. For this pullback it should end by next Thursday at the latest, and will probably be a choppy ABC mess. I'm not interested in taking any positions until the FP on the SPY is hit and that's up around the 6600's on the ES, which again, is not looking likely to hit this week.

I will continue to wait patiently as I know it's coming soon, and while it might happen in September I give that low odds now. I am now open for the September 18th date to be a bottom, instead of a top for a B wave bounce. I say that because if we top out in the OPEX week of August it will take about a month to do an ABC down, and that opens the door for September to be a low, which will fool the masses looking for an October crash.

The September 18th date WILL be a very important date... but maybe it's a low, not a high? I'm open minded to either but right now time is running thin on the top, the drop for the A wave and the rally for the B wave and another drop for a C... which all make an A wave, followed by an ABC up for a B wave, to all play out into that date.

I think I'm going to have to toss out the idea of an abc A down, abc B up, and 5 wave C to unfold and instead we will just see an A down, B up and C down that bottoms on September 18th. Sure, they will have smaller degree waves inside them, but my bigger ABC is on that would take about 3 months and would reach the 5300's to close those gaps on the ES. Now it's looking like this will unfold in a little over one month. I guess we could see drop that low but "time" is running out and if we only have a month, and we start at 6600+ the drop might only be to the 588.79 FP on the SPY, and the gap fills on the ES won't happen until after the final blow off top to 7000-8000 into early next year. Too much to speculate about right now for the big picture. I'll only say that I'm not doing anything until I see the 655.66 FP on the SPY hit.

Have a great weekend.

Yesterday did as expected, a drift lower in front of the FOMC, then the "wild swing" part, which wasn't too wild. Many FOMC meetings have big swings up and down in 1 minute candles, but this was just a pullback after the meeting that got reversed back up near the close. Then the squeeze started and if I'm right it will continue until we reach the 655.66 FP on the SPY. I don't know how fast it happens but with more earnings and the jobs number out tomorrow morning it could do it pretty quick. Wouldn't it be crazy to see it top into the close on Friday and go into the weekend with no one short. I have to think all the bears will give up if we go up another 150+ points today and/or tomorrow. I'm just licking my chops now at an opportunity to short the FP... if it hits this week.

Have an blessed day.

Nothing really to add today as the market will likely continue to chop all day until the FOMC, but it really won't be what the market wants to know. It's the earnings after the close and Thursday that should move the market. If I'm right we'll see a squeeze up to the 655.66 FP on the SPY and that should be the top. Then we pullback nicely. Will it happen? Who knows for sure but it will be hit at some point this year and this week has great odds.

Have an blessed day.

Yesterday did pretty much what I expected... sideways to slightly down. Again, this pattern of doing nothing but chop in front of FOMC meetings is the norm and it's playing out perfectly so far. Today should be a nothing day too... meaning a little up or a little down but go nowhere big. After the FOMC meeting is when the market tends to go up the following few days. Even if something viewed negative is said the market still (after some wild up and down swings possibly) doesn't tank.

Here is that FP again... and remember this was put out last year on December 16th, 2024, so "they" (SkyNet? "The Algo's?) put these out way in advance. 

It's like the Fed never want to be blamed for any sharp sell off in the market so the entire week of the meeting the market stays up. It's the following week where turns back down usually start. While I still don't know for certain that the FP on the SPY of 655.66 will be hit this week, it's certainly possible as it's not more then a couple hundred points higher on the ES/SPX and some good earnings from some major players this week might be all that is needed to cause the squeeze. Or something Trump says to spike the market? He certainly seems to know exactly when to tweet out some news to save the market at the exact spot needed.

Have an blessed day.

The window of time for a pullback has passed and now we go into August where we should see some volatility. It's usually a bearish month from a Seasonality perspective, and I'm starting to think that we are going to see the 655.66 FP on the SPY get hit before we pullback any. They are keeping the bears trapped and didn't even allow the small 3-4% pullback last week that should have happened.

That means the drop coming is not going to stop at just 3-4% and instead will be a 8-10% move instead. The 588.79 FP on the SPY from a week or so back would be my target low in an ABC correction where the A move reaches the 6150-6200 zone, then a strong B up for a lower high into mid-August, and then the C down to the 588.79 FP on the SPY finishes the move. But... "if" we hit the 655.66 FP into early August the rally up from the ABC pullback should ONLY make a lower high into my ideal target date of September 18th, and from that level we should see the C down to fill the gaps on the ES with the lower one being in the 5300's.

This scenario would destroy bulls and bears alike I think, and currently everyone is getting bearish, so a final squeeze up to 655.66 would kill the last bear. As far as "time" goes I'd say between August 1st and 8th would be the time window for this last move up to happen. I know, it's sounds crazy, but last week was the end of the bearish period from a cycles point of view and this week is not normally bearish. Plus, we are super close now to reaching that upside FP of 655.66, as it's just around 20 SPY points higher, which is roughly 200 SPX/ES points.

A move like that should be easy to do with any good news this week, and it should cause the DOW to make a new all time high as well... which I think they want to happen. Bottom line here is that everyone is expecting a pullback either "in front" of the FOMC this Wednesday, or after it. But most FOMC meetings (probably 80% of time I'd estimate) have a bullish outcome for that day and the rest of that week.

It opens the door for the move up to hit by this Friday, August 1st. Will it play out like this? Who knows for sure... only the insiders do. I have been guessing for months now on "when" the upside FP of 655.66 would be hit, and I thought it would happen either in August or September but I wasn't sure which. It now leans toward August, and early August so that the ABC down can play out to make the larger A wave. And then the larger B wave up into September 18th for a lower high should follow, which I thought might be when the 655.66 FP is hit, but now it's leaning toward that not happening as odds are shifting to the FP getting hit first in early August.

As for the short term... hard too say. The typical pattern is chop (slight "tiny" pullback) into the FOMC and up afterwards. Tons of earnings out this week on various companies, so we could see both directions for a change but probably not a lot on the downside until the last move up to hit the FP on the SPY is done.

Have an blessed day.

We did not see the exhaustion squeeze up yesterday that I was looking for on NVDA, as if we can see it happen in the first hour of today it should mark a high in it, and the rest of the market. I'm looking for about 6450 on the ES, and 177-180 on NVDA. A move like this will be a pierce of the rising trendline of major resistance, and I think it will only be to hit the stops before we rollover to start the much needed 300+ point pullback in the ES. With the FOMC next Wednesday we could bottom out right in front of it, and then squeeze hard afterwards. Below is the chart of NVDA...

As you can see we have already hit the rising trendline of resistance, and everyone likely shorted it. I'd guess that many more shorted it yesterday too, and you know the algo's are going to go after those stops before they drop it. The spike high on 11/21/24 was just that... a stop run on the bears. Then it dropped. Well, if we can get that squeeze today we should have the 3-4% pullback on it and the rest of the market. On the ES the target is 6450-6455, and if we can get that today, and an early squeeze up on NVDA in the first hour we should top and pullback into early next week. Will it happen? Who knows for sure! This market is super controlled right now so I'm probably going to be wrong again.

Have a great weekend.

The market pushed through the 6370-6400 zone yesterday with a late day squeeze that happen and more afterhours. It looks like an exhaustion move to me, but until it tops and does a fast 1-2 drop I have to just sit and watch as there's no way I'm chasing the market up higher from this level.

If it skips the pullback and goes straight up to the 655.66 FP on the SPY then that's fine as I'll just wait and short it there. Of course if we get a fast pullback of 200-300 points I'll get long on it and hold until the FP is hit. There's still a little time left, like today and tomorrow roughly. AFter that though, if we don't pullback, it's not likely going to happen until we reach the upside FP in August sometime.

Also, NVDA slammed right into a major trendline of resistance at last weeks high of 174.53, and it's looking like it wants one more crack at it today.   If it gets through it I think it will squeeze to 176-178 from all the shorts from the 174.53 high that placed stops overhead. Every trader see's the rising trendline that starts at the 6/20/24 high and connects to the 11/21/24 top.

It was an obvious short for everyone to take, so "if" the markets to dump it should take out the stops overhead first on NVDA (and the SPY/SPX/ES, etc...) in an exhaustion move, but I don't think it will stay above that rising trendline as the move up has been too parabolic and there's nothing but air below until the 150's. So, for today let's see if the bulls can do that last squeeze up and tank quickly with a 200-300 point drop into Friday or Monday.

Have an blessed day.

The market has pretty much ran out of time for a drop of 7-8% that I've been hoping for, which should unfold in an ABC pattern. That ABC would take a couple of weeks to finish I'd think and the bears really only have days left... meaning after this week end we should go back up again. So, what I think is going to happen is a short lived drop of 200-300 points, and then back up to new highs into August. My target is 6150-6200 on the ES, and I think we will see it before this week ends, but if we don't then window for the bears will close. Then we should go higher next week and start to look for August for the next pullback window.

Have an blessed day.

I had no internet yesterday, so the post I wrote wasn't posted, but it wasn't anything special anyway. Basically I said that I think we'll top on Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, between 6370-6400, which I see we did reach 6374. I'm not sure if that's it or not as they might make one more attempt today at that same zone, but it's looking likely that we will finally start a pullback this week.

How much is still not known as while I think we will eventually reach the 5900-6000 zone this first pullback might just be an A wave of an ABC. That means we "could" see the 6250's support zone hold on the first drop, which would be the A leg. Then the B up "might" drag out into the end of the week, followed by the C wave down into next week where (I hope) we go to the 588.79 FP on the SPY.

It's too hard to know for certain how it's going to unfold as any news event could change everything and we could see a panic flush in 2-3 days to complete the pattern. Anyway, that's what I see for now.

Have an blessed day.

Ok, so the new high yesterday killed the ABC pullback having already started. Clearly it NOT as we haven't topped out yet. My best guess is that yesterday was either the breakout move similar to 2/11/11 or 2/16/11, which if it's the 16th date then we should top next Monday, possibly Tuesday. If it's the 11th then we could drag out into the following week and top around Monday the 28th possibly?

The problem there though is that the decline would cause the month of July close with a nasty topping tail, and I don't think that's what the market has planned. More likely is that we are rallying back up that week after bottoming late next week, so that we can get a bottoming tail closing on the monthly candle. This will keep the bull market going into August and it's still bullish on the bigger picture as we will see that upside 655.66 FP on the SPY hit in August (or September) before we get a much bigger pullback.

For the short term I don't see much today as it's Friday and OPEX. I think we go up again (small) on Monday and possibly early Tuesday. Then I think we get a fast pullback of 2-3 days and while I don't know the level for the pullback it would benefit the bulls if it's a nasty drop to 6000 or so as it will wake up the bears so they will short the market and can be used for fuel for the squeeze afterwards.

Have a great weekend.

The next cycle low is next week on Thursday the 24th, so if we continue the choppy mess of small up's and down's into that date and don't really go anywhere I'd then expect that to end the pullback and start the rally up into August to run to the 655.66 FP on the SPY. From there we should see a 7-8% pullback, but again, I'm not positive on where we are at in the comparison of the 2010/11 pattern.

We might be in the early part of the 7-8% pullback now? If so, then we should hit the 588.79 FP on the SPY into the 24th, which will fulfill the 7-8% pullback. Then we rally hard the rest of July and into August for the 655.66 FP. It would then put in a nice bottoming tail candle on the monthly chart as that low would be retraced hard by the end of July, which would keep the market bullish on the bigger charts.

Of course if that pullback doesn't happen, and we just hold the 6200 lows (roughly) then the market is even more bullish then I thought it was. We'll have to just let it unfold but once the 24th (roughly) is here I'll be looking for a strong rally up to follow.

Have an blessed day.

The CPI yesterday did not cause some big drop, but we did see a small move down, which still looks like chop when you zoom out. Possibly it's the start of an ABC pattern similar to the 1/18/11 to 1/28/11 pattern? It won't repeat exactly of course but since I have the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY I know where the most important high will be at.

Between now and then we could continue to chop up and down for weeks until that final push to hit it happens. I don't know the "when" part but I still think it's early in August. For the short term, we could drift a little low to get the short term charts oversold and support below won't be damaged unless we break the recent lows around 6240, if that breaks we could drop to the low 6100's pretty fast.

I don't think it's going to happen, but anything is possible I guess. I've tried many times in the past several weeks to short this market but it never broke down and gave me the 7-8% pullback. So I've come to conclusion that it probably won't happen until we reach the upside FP on the SPY. So I'm just going to patiently wait for it to happen.

The Alternative Scenario...

If I'm wrong, on where we are currently when compared to the 2010/11 pattern, then we a little past the 2/18/11 high and starting the 7-8% pullback into a low like the 3/14/11 low.  That decline was an ABC and of course we would be in the A part now.  There was a choppy B wave from 2/14/11 to 3/4/11 back then before the C down happened.

The whole move back then was about 28 days, and if we are running about 3 times as fast now we could do it all now in 8-9 days.  But that's just a guess as we don't have to continue to repeat everything at 3 times the speed.  Patterns can repeat closer and it could take 28 days this time around too.

If we are in this spot instead of the 1/18/11 to 1/31/11 area then we might bottom for the C wave into the end July.  We'll have to just watch next week to see how the rally back up plays out.  If it stalls out and doesn't make a new all time high again, I'd have to start thinking we are indeed further along in the pattern and in this alternative scenario instead of the 1/18/11-1/31/11 period.

Have an blessed day.

So far, so good. We are still in a chop mode. This morning we see the futures grind higher.  We could see a 2% or so pullback anytime (100 or so points), and maybe that happens today after the CPI, who knows? But I still don't see much happening this week as it's OPEX and most likely it will remain in a tight range.

As I said in the prior post we appear to be tracking out the 2011/11 pattern again, but 3 times faster.  I'm not positive about where we are in that pattern but I think we are around the high going into 1/20/11, which was followed by an ABC sideways (tight range) pullback into around 1/31/11.  And that was followed by a rally up into the 2/18/11 high before a 7-8% pullback, which would be equal to roughly topping between August 5th-10th I'd estimate.

We could be going into the 1/31/11 top now and the 7-8% pullback is coming later this week and next, but I don't think that's the case.  I still lean toward that pullback happening in August, so we'll see.

I don't have anything else to add so I'll end it here with a short post.

Have an blessed day.

Saturday, July 12th 2025

Last Friday was very disappointing as the market did not do that final push to 6350-6370 ES to get an "exhaustion" move that could be shorted. Instead they pulled back small to control the move and not allow a deeper move back down. Then they grinded back up the rest of the day to erase about half the decline.

This is very frustrating as the market is refusing to do the blow off to allow a decent pullback (200+ points), and it's making it impossible to trade. Ultimately we will see the 655.66 FP on the SPY and that high (a very ritual number) will cause a strong pullback from it. Whether or not it a crash like move is unknown, as it depends on when it hits.

The perfect scenario is to hit it on a ritual date, like September 18th, 2025 (999). Between now then it's looking like the market isn't going to give the bears much on the downside. We could still see the 588.79 FP on the SPY at some point (August?) but I think they will keep this market in a tight range until the upside FP is hit. Then we'll see a crash like drop to fill the 2 gap's on the ES at 5715 and 5339, and that should happen into October.

Short term though we are very overbought and a pullback of few hundred point is still likely to happen soon. It might be a 1-2 day event but it's still likely to happen before the blow off into September. For today though I don't have much to add.

Oh... NVDA, I forgot to add that it failed to drop like a rock Friday too. I was hoping that the ritual 166.66 early high would hold and that we'd see a 10%+ fast 1-2 day collapse move but it was stopped from happening as that high was taken out. It will at some point have a surprise drop that very few catch. For now though I've moved on and will focus on the market.

Sunday, July 13th 2025

So I've taken some time to go back into the past to see if there's any pattern that looks similar to today's market, and I found one.  It's the 2010-2011 period, which I'm posting below in a chart.

Nothing is an exact match of course but this one is close.  It unfolded in 15 months and I'm expecting today's market to unfold in about 5 months, so we are running 3 times faster now.  But it all aligns up nicely with a crash like move this coming September to October.

As for the short term, I don't think there will be any decent trade (up or down) until we get into the first (second?) week of August.  Then we could see a similar to the 2/18/11 top to the 3/17/11 pullback.  Of course it should be 3 times as fast if we are in that pattern.  It was a 7-8% pullback so if we hit the FP of 655.66 on the SPY then the pullback would be around 606 roughly, which I'd guess will be around 6100 on the ES.

Have an blessed day.

We had a pullback after hours yesterday, but I don't' think it will hold. I think it gets retraced back up today as we are still missing one more higher high. After that we should see a sharp drop that last 1-2 days before another move back up later next week. The bigger drop isn't here yet but we should start seeing some one day wonder drops as the bulls get weakened. Nothing more to add, so I'll end this update here.

Have a great weekend.

The failure yesterday for the market to lose support after the gap up was fully retraced back down in the first hour tells me we have likely not topped yet. I now see the first ABC down from the 6333 high on 7/3 to the 6246 low on 7/7 as (possibly?) completing some smaller degree wave 4, and NOT just an A wave of a bigger ABC down that would pullback to 6200 or so.

I just feel that if that was going to happen yesterday was the day to start it. That gap up and squeeze would have been (should have been) the B wave and the C wave down would follow. It's not as likely to happen now as the momentum is gone. That early pop and drop should have been used to break support around 6275 or so, but it held and the rest of the day we saw the market grind higher into the close.

It's still possible I guess for that to play out, as the quick early pullback might still be the wave 1 down inside the C wave, and the retrace back up to within a hair of a new high could be the wave 2... and if so, the wave 3 down might happen today (and wave 4 and 5 to end the C wave).

But it's not looking like it wants to break support the way it acts. If it does, I'd ONLY look for a slightly lower low then the 6246 low on 7/7 (my 6200 original target), and it should be short lived. But if it doesn't happen I have to think we are already in a wave 5 up to 6350-6370, and that it should be hit some time next week (probably before the CPI on 7/15).

That suggests a top next Monday possibly. There's not any real difference with the end result for topping early next week for either wave count. If we do the C wave down today to 6200 or so then the ABC will be from 7/3 to 7/10 instead of 7/3 to 7/7, with the shorter one just having that one ABC move inside it and a higher low of 6246, with the longer ABC down have a lower low and it would have an ABC (A), ABC (B), and ABC (C) to complete it.

Both will be followed by a rally up into early next week. Either one could make a higher high or lower high, and then we should get a much deeper pullback afterwards into the rest of next week and the week afterward. If the market would have sold off this week then we would see a strong rally next week so all the "puts" will expire since it's the monthly OPEX week.

But since it's looking more likely that this will will hold this upper range it's probably going to close at a high area, and that means OPEX will need to kill all the "calls" so they expire worthless. That means we should pullback later next week but go into it at a high. For today, I don't think we pullback much as I think yesterday base zone around 6275 will still hold, and therefore the odds of breaking it for a move to 6200 seem low.

Regardless of where it pulls back to we should continue holding this zone so that one last move up to 6350-6370 can be made early next week. Then we get a nice pullback.

Have an blessed day.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday. I have zero interest in going long and I'm just waiting to go short. I had a short on from last week but closed it out Monday at a breakeven as I didn't get the big gap down I was looking for. I'm still bearish and plan to re-short soon but there still should be one more move up.

I think it will be a "lower high" for the B wave I've talked about in yesterdays post, but I also am open to a slightly higher high. There's not much left in this market on the upside but it seems to be waiting on a reason to drop hard. It's close though... possibly today or Thursday? Nothing more to add as I covered in Tuesday post.

Have an blessed day.

We did pullback some yesterday, but it's far from any thing really being bearish. I think we saw an A wave down and the move up from the late day low yesterday was the start of the B wave. If it can finish today we could see a C wave down tomorrow to end this part of the correction.

Call the entire ABC just the first part of the pullback as after it's done we should rally up into mid-late next week as it's OPEX and we typically see moves up into that week if the prior week was a down one.

The question will be... will that move up be a new higher high or a lower high? If it's a lower high we could (should) see another drop into around the last week of July for what should be labeled as a bigger C wave with the current ABC down being the bigger A wave and the move up into OPEX being the bigger B wave. I'm thinking this is what is going to play out and that we'll see the 588.79 FP on the SPY get hit during that C wave and NOT during this current ABC down to make the A wave.

Ok, for today I"d like to see a move up to a possible FP on the SPY of 623.31 from yesterday. If we can see it hit I think we'll finish the B wave and start the C wave down into a low tomorrow or Thursday. How low I don't know? Maybe 6100-6150 on the SPX (40 or so points higher on the ES). The obvious target of big support is from the 6/16 prior high, which is 6109 on the ES, but the 20 day SMA is at 6134, so "in that zone" would be the most likely spot to end the C wave inside a (likely) larger A wave down.

Have an blessed day.

Last Friday we saw a nice rally all day long but it sold off after the close. It's still unclear on whether or not the high for that move is in or not as we are bouncing back up some Sunday night in the futures as I write this post. I had hoped to see the futures down big but that's not the case. And there's a lot of others calling for a pullback too out there, and if we get too many traders all looking for the same thing the market will fool them. Will it be "No Pullback" or a "Much Deeper Pullback" is the question. I don't really have anything more to add, so we'll just have to see how this plays out.

Have an blessed day.

The market grind-ed higher yesterday, which is wonderful in my opinion as it allows a better short entry over this 3 day weekend. The BIG resistance overhead is the 6350 zone on the ES, and man ol' man would I love to see it hit into the close day (close is at 1pm, not 4pm EST).  It would take out every last bear I think and the market will be ripe for a surprise news event over the 3 day holiday so we can open up with a nice gap down.

It's the perfect setup for a little mini-flash crash in 3-4 days to hit the FP on the SPY of 588.79, and if we drop that fast and hard all the bears will have missed it and will pile up short on the next move up.

Of course that will just be tons of fuel to squeeze them hard into the 655.66 FP on the SPY, but I don't think it hit's it until September 18th. However, the first move up on the market after the low (if we get it?) should come right back up to the current highs very quickly. Then we should see some up's and down's for a month or more to put the bears to sleep again and get the bulls fully loaded up long.

But if I'm right the expected range of say 6200-6400, which will build a huge bull flag, won't do a massive breakout of a 1000+ point run as many will expect. It should only go up another 200 or so point until that FP on the SPY is hit. Call it 6600+ on the ES, and after it's hit that should be all she wrote for the bulls.

Again, I'm only speculating on the September 18th date, but I have strong reasons to think that's when the FP will be hit. Anyway, for day, root for another squeeze up to 6350 so we can get a big surprise gap down on Monday.

Have a great 4th of July weekend.