The market went a little higher on Friday, so my thoughts that we had a ritual number high on Thursday wasn't accurate. I guess it has to be a more obvious 666 or 999? Either way, nothing has changed. This week is still "the week" where we should a drop, which again should be a larger wave 2 down.
Target is hard to say for sure but 5500-5600 is my best guess, which is based on the FP on NVDA and where the ES/SPX should be at when that FP is hit. This should be over with by early next week. Once the FP on NVDA is hit the bottom will be in for the market and we should start a very powerful rally up into July/August.
It should be fast too, and I suspect we'll be a new highs into July and then it will grind slower into August. The most important date though will be September 18th-22nd, which could be "the high" or a "lower high"? Either way the market should crash after that... if we are at the 655.66 FP on the SPY, and/or already hit that high and have done a pullback from it (the A wave down) and are putting in a B wave rally up into the 18th-22nd. That's the medium term picture. As for the short term, I don't have anything to add. Again, we should rollover this week and start the pullback.
We finally got the higher high yesterday as the ES Futures and the SPX both went up enough to complete a 5th wave. No, it didn't reach the 6050-6100 on the ES, nor make a new all time high, but that was always the "unknown" part. I said in a previous post that the market will likely fool everyone that is looking for a move to 6050-6100 where they could short it.
My thoughts were that it would either squeeze hard for a new all time high, or fall short of the double top to where no one will catch see it's already topped and they will miss the best entry to short it. And that fast spike high in the futures before the open did just that as it was too quick to catch and short for most traders. But it very likely marked the high for the entire rally up from the low.
Meaning the smaller wave 5 just ended, and that completed the larger wave 1 up as well. Why do I feel so confident about this you ask? I posted the following the chatroom yesterday:
"Back on 2/19 when we topped they put in a very obvious ritual 666 with the ES peaking at 6166.50, which stands out to me like a sore thumb as a 666. Today, we had a "not too obvious" 666 code. You have to take the 1 and the 5 in the 6016.50 and add them together. Then you are left with 666, so I think we have topped. 1:56 PM"
. I'll further add to that comment that the SPX Cash hit a ritual 666 number too. It hit a high of 5999.70, whereas the 999 part is an upside down 666 code. That double conformation to me that the high is in now, just like the current all time high of 6166.50 has an obvious 666 code in it, and it marked the high.
Beside the codes there are many technical reasons, cycles, and wave counts that say we've topped. From here going forward we should decline over the next 2 weeks to hit the FP on NVDA, which is roughly 5500 on the ES. When it hits I think the low will be in for the larger wave 2 pullback that everyone has been looking for, and wave 3 up will take us to new all time highs into August/September. As for this coming pullback, the next FOMC meeting is on June 18th, which is likely where we'll bottom.
There were 4 intraday attempts yesterday to get through the 6000 level, which all of them failed, so I took a short. BUT... I don't think that the top is in for sure. If we can't get through support (around 5950 ES) today then I'll exit and wait as there's still likely going to be another attempt to get through that resistance. If it does, we'll see a strong squeeze higher. The turn window is still the 6th-11th, so the bulls are still in control right now. I'm just gambling a little by shorting early yesterday. Odds are I'll have to exit and try again in a few more days. Bulls don't give up easily, so at some point they will likely push through resistance. This assume support below holds and I think it will Let's see what today brings.
Still waiting for a breakout as market continues to churn inside a tight range. While it could fail and just start the pullback without the last move up, odds favor the 5th wave being successful, and the time window is still the 6th to 11th. The target is a double top, which could be a slightly higher high or lower high. There's nothing to do but wait for this last move before getting bearish. Next Wednesday we have the CPI number out, so if we rally up into it that could be our turn date? I'll keep this update short and end it here.
Isn't it amazing how there's always some kind of event that happens right around an important turn in the market? This Wednesday, which is before the turn window, other countries will be submitting their best offers to President Trump concerning the tariff's. It's perfect timing for the final wave 5 up to start... if that's the event the market is waiting on? The tariff's have been "front and center" the last couple of months concerning the sell off to the April low and the rally back up from it.
So other events, like the CPI, Jobs Numbers, Unemployment numbers, and even FOMC meetings have been meet with a yawn. The event really isn't important as when the time is up, (for bulls or bears) it's up. A top is near but the window for the turn is really between the 6th and 11th, so if we get a strong breakout of this zone this Wednesday the rally is likely to last into the 6th to 11th before it finishes and rolls over, which if it's later (like the 11th) we should bottom in late June, not mid-June.
The price level is very likely going to be around the 5500 zone as that's roughly equal to the FP on NVDA, but the timing of it is still a best guess. Since it's likely that this Wednesday we'll breakout to the upside that rally could last into early next week and we might even see a double top? I don't have any FP's on the upside, but there are several price levels that will be targets. One is 6032, then 6058, and 6077... and above that is a new high of 6213.
Those are just estimates of course, but if there's something rally positive that comes out about the tariff's I think we can see a new high. If this happens we should finally see the "Fear and Greed" get maxed out, which it's not right now. I think we need to see it reach extreme levels before we can get the pullback that everyone is looking for. I had thought that we'd just make a slightly higher high and then rollover, but with this tariff event coming tomorrow I think it's the planned "event" to get the market to new highs.
This week should be the week where we see some kind of high in the ES that can be shorted for a good 1-2 week pullback. I don't think it's going to break the low, as my lean is still that we will make a higher low. My target is around where the market was at on April 30th, which is the low-mid 5500 zone. After that it's up, up and away in a wave 3 most likely. This coming pullback still has good odds of being a wave 2 on a bigger degree with the entire rally up from the lows just being a 5 wave move to make a bigger wave 1. I have a FP on NVDA for 108.65, which is equal to the May 30th level roughly (the 5500's), and that's another reason for me to think that's where we are headed.
It's looking and feeling like we have topped with that fast overnight stop run to pierce 6000 in the futures. No way to know for certain until support is lost of course. As for today, I don't expect much, unless some news events comes out that causes a sharp move in the market... which could be up or down? But I think the up move from a news event (NVDA earnings) has already happened, so the move should be down I think. I was looking for that stop run to happen late next week, and for it to go higher, like to 6050-6100, but it happened early instead. And it didn't have as many stops to hit as I thought (bears) as if there were more we would have seen those higher targets hit.
Anyway, there's not much to here until it does breakdown. I think we've topped, so I'm short, but we still have an up move likely into late next week. If we drop first though (an A wave) that move will be a lower high (a B wave), which is what I think will happen. Mid-June is still where the biggest panic should happen, so that's where the bottom should appear. Whether it has topped already or will make one more move higher next week is unknown, but in the end we should be going down afterwards, so I'm taking my chances.
After hours yesterday the market broke out and is now running stops overhead. This tells me the odds of topping this week instead of next week is much higher. Basically, it's more of a "feeling" on when to short, which will be based on when one thinks all the stops have been hit on the bears and the market is exhausted.
We could see one more higher high today (or not?). Somewhere between 6050-6150 is where I think the market will run out of gas and rollover, which can happen this week from the looks of the market right now, but it doesn't have too. We could have already topped, at least for now. Meaning we could pullback from here and go back up to that higher area late next week. Or that expected rally is a lower high. The daily closing candle will be important today.
Target on the downside is still around 5500 (or lower) into mid-late June. It really should fill the gap lower down in the 5300's but that's not guaranteed. Nothing more to add, so I'll end it here.
Still a lot of resistance overhead that the market is bumping into now. We could pullback small into this Friday another time before we get the breakout move higher to finally reach 6000+ on the ES, and try to get up to a double top. There's not much on the news front for "events" coming up the rest of this week. However, we have the non-farm payroll report next Friday, June 6th.
If I had to guess I think that will be the last date before the market starts the real decline. What it does between now and then is hard to figure out. If, some how, we blast through this 6000 resistance zone this week then I'll have to think we will end the 5th wave up and the decline will start next week.
But if we fail to get through it, and pullback small this week, then next week should be the last attempt for the bulls to get through and make a run for the all time high. My lean is that we don't get through this week and pullback small, and then do the final move higher into late next week. It could just be barely higher then the 6000 level, or all the way up to a double top.
There's no way to figure that out right now, so we'll have to just let it play out. Basically, I'm looking for this final 5th wave up to subdivide into 5 smaller waves where the (wished for) pullback into this Thursday/Friday is the wave 2 down, whereas the move up from last Friday (into now) is the wave 1 up. That would setup a wave 3, 4, and 5 for next week to finish the final 5th wave up.
Looking at the various charts and time frames for clues I lean toward the market bottoming in the next couple of days. I don't see much more on the downside either. The max might be to 5700 or so on the ES, but it doesn't have to go that low. It might have already put in the bottom last week? Regardless, this still looks and feels like a wave 4 pullback that should be done in a few more days.
Then we should see a wave 5 up into next week, which may or may not make a higher high? Odds are it does, as the market loves to hit stops on the bulls and bears (bear stops this time) before it makes a new trend move (down).
If we do make a higher high I still think that will will stop short a of double top as that's the area every new bear will want to short at, so the market most likely won't allow them the perfect double top to short. It should be 50-100 point lower then the current all time high of 6166 (in hind sight that was such an obvious top with the ritual 666 in it). So, with next week being the first week of June I think it will be the week where this 5th wave up happens.
If so, that should be it on the upside and we should decline into mid-late June where we should fill some gaps below. I don't know if we get all the way down to the 4/22/25 gap fill or not (5339.25) as that seems like a lot, but that gap will be filled at some point. Possibly it gets filled later this year in October? It's an unknown at this point. The other gap is from 5/9 (5715.25), and I'm pretty sure they will fill it.
That pullback will be some larger wave 2 I believe and will make a perfect Right Shoulder in an "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern where 3/13 was the Left Shoulder and 4/7 was the Head. From that low we should explode higher into August/September for the 655.66 FP on the SPY... at least I'm hoping it hits this year.
It's possible I guess that they save it for next year, after we pullback hard this October for a nasty low that should be below the current 4832 low. But, they could also top this year instead and that early high that's expected in the first quarter of 2026 is only a "Lower Higher"... meaning the 655.66 FP on the SPY is the highest high before the bear market starts. With the obvious ritual 666 in the FP I have to think it will be a major high that last a long time. Maybe they hit it this year on 9/9/2025, which is a 999 and an upside down 666 ritual number? Remember that satan does the opposite of God and using the number of man (6) upside down is still a ritual for him.
Anyway, for today I don't have much to say as where the market is going. I'm focusing on catching the next short, which I lean toward it showing up next week (June 6th 2025 is a 669).
The market is continuing to slowly pullback, which is perfect for both paths I covered yesterday. If we turn back up next week and top into the FOMC there's a new intraday FP on the SPY of 591.93 that will be a magnet to get hit. On the downside there's a 564.61 FP from May 13th that might be the pullback low if instead the market declines into the FOMC, whereas then I'll look for the rally back up to the upside FP to hit the following week, which is the first week of June. That's the two paths I see, which is to either hold this zone today and go back up into next week for the upside FP (a lower high) or to decline more early next week to the lower FP and rally back to the upside FP into the first week of June.
The pullback yesterday looks like an ABC move (so far) and might have ended already? It's really hard to say for sure but whether it has ended or not everything still points to next week for the best shorting spot. The end of most months has a turning point on them and this one should be no difference.
It's never some exact date but around the last week of any month or the first week of the next month. With the FOMC minutes next Wednesday I don't see much happening until then. And next Monday the market is closed for Memorial Day. so there's not likely going to be much volume until after both the holiday and the FOMC passes by.
The common pattern is that if we have weakness into this Friday then early next week we should see the opposite. That means a move up into the FOMC is likely, and the Fed doesn't have to say anything really. Just don't add anything positive and allow the overbought charts to do their work. As for today and Friday, if we continue to pullback I'd look for the 5700 zone to be the target. Then we would make one more attempt next week to reach the 6000 level. Whether we make it or fail is unknown but it's the best short in my opinion.
The Alternative Path...
If we don't see the move up next week to try to hit and breakthrough the 6000 zone, and instead we have pulled back into the FOMC, then more time is needed as that missing 5th wave up would just be delayed and pushed out into the first week of June.
This might happen if we have pulled back to say the 5700 zone into next Wednesday and the Fed leans at something that the market like, which would cause a move up afterwards, and it would likely try to hit a double top at 6166, but I don't think it will get through it. There's not much difference in either path as both say we need a pullback (in play now) and a final move up. Just in this case the pullback will last into next Wednesday and the final wave up will go into the first week of June.
In the first path the pullback will be finished by this Friday and we will rally up into the FOMC next week to (probably) fail to get through the 6000 zone. Maybe it pierces briefly but with the shorter time to do the move the amount up should be weaker too. Whereas a pullback into the event would give more fuel for stronger rally up into early June.
In each case I plan to just be patient and left the market decide which one it wants to do. Let the short come to me basically. Just give the market whatever extra time it needs to finish that 5th wave up as that's when the best opportunity should show up.
Nothing to add here as the market is still doing nothing. "Time" is the important thing and next week is the most likely period where the time runs out for the bulls and the market should start down with mid-June still being the likely period for the low to come in at. It's at that point where it's going to be harder to figure out as while the market should start back up into the end of the month there's no way to know if it's just going to be a lower high, with another leg down in the month of July, or if that's the big rally up to the new all time highs. We'll just have to let it play out first... no point guessing right now.
Another snooze fest yesterday as the market refused to fall much, but didn't go up much either. It's very clear that the market is super tired here, but bulls don't die easily. We can linger around for another week inside a 300-400 range, like between 5600-6000 basically. We are at the top end of it, but at some point soon we'll see a pullback to the lower end, and then back up next week for another try to reach the all time high, but I don't think it will happen.
Once the first pullback is done (a wave 4) the wave 5 up next week can go a little higher then the peak this week, or it can truncate short with a lower high. Remember that next Wednesday we have a reading of the minutes of the prior FOMC meeting. While I don't expect anything to be added the market still tends to "just hang out" in a range until after it passes "just in case" the Fed does say something new.
Therefore I still think the best opportunity to short will be next week. Possibly we pullback this week to the 5600 zone, and then go back up to 5800-5900 next week? The after the meeting we start down in a more steady decline to see if the 5600 zone of support can break.
If it breaks then the 5400 area where that gap is at will be the target. If it gets hit late next week or early the following week there will be too much "time" left for the market to decline, so while we should bounce from there that "bounce" will need to hold all the way into mid-June for the bearish period to expire. Can it hold that long? I don't know? If it does then look out for a big squeeze up into early July for the blow off top to play out (as covered in my prior Bullish Wave Count and/or the "If 2020 equals 2025" chart).
However, if that zone breaks we could be back to the Bearish Wave Count where a new low is coming into mid-June. I don't know which one will happen, but I'll be paying very close attention to how much time is left in the bearish period, as that will tell the real story of where it's likely to go. As for today, I don't have any foresight to whether or not we will pullback or chop more. But a pullback to the 5600 zone this week is still likely.
Last week was a "Bear Destroyer" as the market ran up to the 586.86 SPY FP and paused before grinding higher into the close on Friday without giving the bears any way out. I'll look for another short late this month after I see a pullback and one more move up. But for now I'm not doing anything. There's just no way to short this strength and think you will win. You have to allow the first pullback to get bought up by the retail traders expecting new all time highs. It will be the 5th wave up, and it will fall short of the double top.
Why? Because there won't be anymore bears left for fuel to hit their stops as those bears will have flipped to become bulls looking for the double top to try another short. The market won't give them the double top of course, but will tease them to get them fully long before the real pullback in June. I posted another chart on Friday on X with another wave count that I think is more likely now. That chart is below.
As you can see once we start down in June everyone will look for the 4/22 gap to be filled, where they will take a long. It's just too obvious of a target, so there's only 2 options to screw those traders. ONE: You fall short of hitting it as I've show in the above chart, which is what I think will happen. TWO: You drop lower then it to hit the new stops placed by the bulls buying that gap fill, which would then put us back in the Bearish Wave Count I posted on Friday, and re-posted below.
Why do I think that won't happen you ask? Because I think we could see a massive blow off top into July 4th, to hit the 655.66 FP on the SPY, and there's just not enough time left to go that deep on the Bearish Wave Count and run back up to that level by the 4th of July. It needs to be a more shallow pullback so that we can reach the FP in time. Now I don't know for certain that we will reach it by then, but if we drop too low I'll then say that the FP won't be hit until August or even later.
Remember this post about July 5th 2025 from people that had visions of a Tsunami hitting Japan?
Guess what? Now we have a new video from Bo Polny who talks about July 4th as an important day where something is going to happen. I don't know "what" of course, and he doesn't either, but something is likely to occur. If the visions/dreams/prophesy is right from the video on that prior post then I pray for the people in Japan.
Now I'm guessing here that we hit the FP on the SPY of 655.66 into that date, as I could be wrong there, but I find it awful interesting that Bo Polny mentioned it too. He talks about September 18th, 2025 as an important date as well, and these are all Biblical calculated dates from the Bible.
Something I find interesting about that date is that it's a 666 date (999 upside down) as September is the 9th month, 1+8=9 for the 18th, and 2025 is a 9 year (2+0+2+5=9). I remember the last time we had a 999 day we had a large one day drop. It was on September 9th, 2016, which was a nasty drop for just one day. The market wasn't in a correction at that time as the charts were bullish, but the satanists made sure they honored that date with a quick one day drop. If we top in July, pullback in August for a wave 1 of some degree, and go back up into September for a wave 2, then we could be in a wave 3 down around that date, and it could be a lot worse this time around then the last one.
Just something to keep in the back of your mind, that's all. The Bo Polny video is long but well worth watching.
I didn't do a post yesterday as nothing has changed. The market is still around the same zone, even though it went a little higher and is still grinding higher this morning. This should be the wave 3 up and will end at some point soon and we'll a wave 4 pullback. That pullback should be next week and the following week we should see the wave 5 up.
Now... that's where it gets tricky. I do not know if it's the end of a 5 wave up C wave, which ends a larger B wave (my bearish count), or if it's the end of a 5 wave up 3 wave, which would be inside a larger wave 1 up (the bullish case).
Below are those charts...
As you can see there's not much to do until the last week of May where a top for either the bullish case or the bearish case will give traders a good shorting setup.
The FP on the SPY of 586.86 was successfully hit and pierced yesterday, so that should be it on the upside. But I don't think we are going to just fall off a cliff here as there's a lot of support below that will need to be hit, bounced from, hit again, bounce again, rinse and repeat. It means we could see the rest of May doing a lot of chop, and then in June we should start down steady to retest the lows.
Again, I don't know if we go through it hard, double bottom or just make a higher low? I just have to give it more time to let the first series of waves unfold and get a better feel for what could happen. Short term, we should pullback in the coming few days to retest the week long support in the 5650-5700 zone. This might drag into next week, and then we go back up again for a lower high the following week. I don't see any good setup for a short now as we need to allow the market to get the series of wave 1's down and 2's up until support get much weaker and we get a wave 3 of 3 setup form.
This could take a couple of weeks. Yesterday is kind of like the 3/25 high, that pulled back and went back up into the 4/2 lower high, which then setup the big drop that was a wave 3 of some degree. I think we are going to do something similar but it should take 2 weeks this time around, whereas back then it was only about 1 week. Basically, the last week of this month is where we should see that bounce high like the 4/2 high. Nothing more to add as we just have to be patient to allow the pattern to setup.
The market just grinned sideways yesterday after a gap up at the open. It got really close to the FP of 586.86 through out the day but never hit it. After hours it got even closer. It's looking like it might hit it today, and with the CPI out before the open that would be an easy move up to hit from the current closing price from yesterday.
But, if for any strange reason, it does not hit it and it goes down instead, then it's the ol' FP trick again that it's done in the past many times. It will get close to a FP (up or down) on the first attempt and fall shy of hitting it. Then it will go the other direct for awhile (weeks, months?) and come back later to hit it. While I don't think it will do that this time around (because it's so close) I can't rule it out.
Many traders these days see these fake prints just like I do and they wait for them to be hit to take a position. So the market just might trick them and head south without hitting them. If this happens you can just sit back and wait for the end of this month for the FP to get hit on the expected move back up, which then will be followed by a large drop into mid-June, which should take out the current low but that's unknown of course.
The two FP's of 483.07 and 483.62 from last year were hit on that decline (and pierced) so those FP's are fulfilled, so there's no clues on the downside of where the market might go to? I don't know if it's going to be a higher low or lower low but the "time window" for it is mid-June. We'll have to just see where the market is at when we get there I guess. For now those my lean is that we hit (and pierce) the 586.86 FP (in regular hours) and then rollover for the A wave (or wave 1) of the next leg down. It should be over with by the end of this week and then we do the B wave up (or wave 2) into the end of May. I still think about a 50% retracement is possible but it's going to take some bad news to cause it at this point it seems.
WOW! I got fooled again it seems. Even though I knew about the 586.86 FP on the SPY I didn't believe it could hit it, but it's very obvious now that's exactly where it's going. After that though the pullback should happen.
I would think we would see about a 50% pullback from the move up from the low, which ironically is around where the gap fill would be at (roughly 5300). Then, if all goes well, we will rally back up into the end of the month to put a slightly lower high then last weeks high. A move like that should fool everyone into think the low is in and that we are starting a wave 3 up with the pullback this week being the wave 2 down.
It's the perfect bull trap that sets up the next big move down, which should take out the low to hit the stops on the bulls. Most likely it will be a wave 3 inside a C wave, and should end right into the FOMC meeting on June 18th. Then we start a huge rally up with the final target being the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which should be in August I suspect. Nothing more to add.
It went a little higher yesterday, which doesn't change anything. We should still go down next week as covered in yesterday post. This is just the typical bullish to flat bias that seems to follow every FOMC day, where the Thursday and Friday afterwards don't do much of anything, and typically hold the current price or float a little higher. It's always the following week where the real move happens, which could be up or down, but in our case it should be down as we rallied up into it. As for today, I don't have much opinion, but I don't see anything big on the upside. We should start down into next week, and at least fill that gap from 4/22.
