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... Red Dragon Leo

Someone I follow on Twitter posted this chart and was talking about gaps as shown in yellow and a range bound market as shown by the blue line. I don’t think they know what a FP is and clearly didn’t pay any attention to the 211.80 SPY print on this chart from late December.

I never seen it on any of my charts but it’s on their charting system. I can only suspect that we’ll see that level hit at some point this year… probably this month if we are about to breakout of this range soon? http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/spy-fp-211-80.png

Down next week is likely with a Thurs/Fri low, then up the following week for the monthly option expiration. Possibly that will be the week we hit that FP of 211.80? Of course that depends on how low we go next week.

... Red Dragon Leo

There was the reversal down I was expecting. Now (since it’s Friday) they should recover and chop around the rest of the day.

... Red Dragon Leo

Based on what I currently see in the charts I give it high odds of a reversal back down today after the gap up open.

... Geccko23

I wonder if today is the high rather than it unfolding over the next few days. The low of the year last year was made on February 4, basically 360 degrees ago, in a similar manner to the topping process of the last few days.

Tomorrow will see Jupiter opposite to the Sun, a possible Jupiter Rising day???, definitely an Ascending one to mark 2-6 as a very special day. Two days off the full moon while a unheralded grand cross occurs between Pluto, Uranus, Rahu, and Sirius.

Or we could chop sideways for a couple of more days since today is only 26 days off the top.

The Tulip bubble topped on 2-3, 378 years ago and we know Prechter loves the Tulip bubble. (a repeat comment made last year since 377 years from 1637 seemed more numerologically appopriate but the only tulip bubble bursting we got was the Bitcoin meltdown). So maybe the 78 is more appropriate for the year ’15. Anyway, it should be 377 years from the Statue of 3 Lies year of 1638. Which brings us to Facebook day, on 2-4 marking the 11th year of the founding of the online institution by the illustrious Harvard grad.

... salami junior

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... Red Dragon Leo

Someone asked this question on a different blog I read and I thought my answer was work reposting here:

…”johnnymagicmoney says:

February 5, 2015 at 11:57 am

so charts are psychology and humans create computers which the models are derivatives of their psychology but I wonder if any work has been done to study how the models run by computers are negating the pure psychology element (in essence partially destroying the value of wave theory or any techincal) of the market even though they are dervivatives of the human mind. How have algorithims made these moves less predictable versus before? I have seen so many situations in the charts where the it really looks likely that it will drop and it doesnt and visa versa to a degree that I question elliot or any technical analysis less than before. Am I making sense? Its like cocaine’s derivative in crack………..change a couple molecules and its worse even though its still coke!! How has the algorithims destroyed historical tehncial analysis is my question when in the past it was pure psychology emanating from orders from human beings??”…

……………………………………………….

My answer was….

Simple answer:

The markets were created to steal money from the sheep, and they’ve done ever since it all started. But in order for “them” to steal the money they have to get the majority of the sheep on one side a trade so they can take the other side and then program SkyNet to run the market in that direction.

In the past technical’s worked quite well, as did elliottwave and Fib retracement levels. But that was back when only “they” had access to those studies and charts. Now with the internet the sheep have gotten the same access that the wolves have had. This means the sheep can attempt to follow what the wolves are doing and get on the same side of the trade as them.

This naturally won’t work as the wolves can’t steal the sheep’s money if the sheep know what the wolves are doing or about to do. So they had to rewrite SkyNet’s algorithms so it wouldn’t follow commonly seen technical’s, elliottwave, retracement levels and chart patterns.

Then they make sure to keep those algo’s secret so they can again go back to stealing the sheep’s money. You’ll notice that counting waves today isn’t anything like it was before the sheep had access to the same level of access to TA’s, EW, etc…

Simply put… if a pattern is seen by too many sheep “they” (SkyNet) will trick them and not allow that pattern to work. So when we are all expecting nice wave counts with typical 23.6%, 38.2% counter trend waves to happen we aren’t likely going to see them.

The huge bear squeezes up that we’ve had recently from the October 15th low of 1820 last year, December 16th low of 1972, January 6th low of 1992, January 15th low of 1991 and recent low of 1989 are perfect examples of straight up moves with next to nothing on pullback waves for waves 2 and 4 or a B wave.

SkyNet knows we sheep are NOW counting the waves with charting analysis programs that available to every trader on the planet with internet access. So it doesn’t give us some nice predictable Fib level pullback to get long at. It’s just one huge move up with small pullbacks of 5% or so intraday.

They force you to chase it up not knowing when it will end and they trick you by blasting through the easily known resistance levels on the way up as well as wave count estimated percentage lengths. So C doesn’t equal some nice 1.618% length of A anymore, nor does B pullback 38.2% or some other nice Fib level.

It’s much, much harder now to predict the market then ever before as the more sheep that use TA’s, EW, Fib’s, etc… the more likely they won’t work. If the masses see it then SkyNet will manipulate the market so the pattern fails.

There’s no easy way to figure it out either as SkyNet is of course tied into the release of news events that will move the market in one direction or the other. That was the case yesterday when that negative news about the ECB liquidity problem was conveniently released at 8:30 pm their time (3:30 pm EST) right when the SPX filled the 2052 gap low from 01/26.

I was actually expecting the market to remain flat yesterday with a gap up today to fill that gap, which would have been shortable. But running it up yesterday to fill the gap and then releasing the news perfectly timed to dump the market quickly worked off the overbought condition I was seeing on the short term that would have produced a much deeper sell off if it would have happened today at the open.

They timed that sell off during the last 30 minutes of the day so they could have the afterhours session and the morning session to save the market… which they did. If it would have happened at the open today traders would have had the entire day to sell it down, and that’s not what they wanted to happen…. so it didn’t.

They caught traders off guard during that last 30 minutes of the day yesterday and got some new bears short in the market from that news. They used those shorts to squeeze the market up afterhours and this morning.

Nothing in these world is random as all the news is controlled and released based on what “they” want to happen in the market. This isn’t new as it’s always been this way, but even more so today as there are only 6 companies that own 100% of every news media outlet out there.

So it’s much easier for them to hold back the release of some negative piece of news until such time that the squeeze out the last bear, which they then release the news when none of the sheep are short (of course the wolves are) and down goes the market.

As for today…

What are the majority of the sheep looking for now? Is a squeeze coming as more retail shorts pile in from this obvious triple top zone we are at now (which are said to be rare as they usually breakthrough them)? Or is a dump happening with all the sheep long?

I wish I knew the answer as I’d take a position but I don’t. It’s a toss of a coin for me predicting the next move here and it’s not a trade I want to take. But SkyNet knows the next move as it see’s all the sheeps’ hands. It knows where all the bulls’ and bears’ have their stops at and will steal the one with most… after all that’s what’s it’s programmed to do.

... Red Dragon Leo

Well, as usual SkyNet tricked us all again. That fast down move yesterday into the close was done to work off some short term bearishness so they could ram it higher again today. Since the move down yesterday was the move I was expecting (although I was thinking it would start a new downtrend), I now think we won’t see another move down start until they push it much higher then I was expecting.

I was kinda looking for that gap fill from 01/27 to be the end of this rally up and then we’d rollover. We’ve past that level now and appear to be headed for a “bear squeeze” from the triple top we are currently at.

They say there are no triple tops (we know there is), as they are broken. My experience only tells me that triple tops don’t happen often. The reason is that they are usually broken on the 3rd hit of some important resistance or support level.

Of course the rare times that they aren’t broken the market reverses hard in the other direction. If we would have stopped yesterday around that 2052 SPX gap fill from the 01/27 low of the day and rolled over to the downside we would have only had a prior double top (from 01/09 at 2064 and 01/22 at 2064) with the 2052 high not making up into what we’d call a “triple top area”.

Clearly we are within that zone now with today’s current high of 2059 being within 5 points of the prior 2 highs. This is close enough in my opinion to call this a triple top. So the odds now favor a breakout to clear out stops above 2064 and create a bear squeeze up another 10-20 points higher.

On the rare chance that we don’t breakthrough the sell off to follow should drop quite nicely. If so, I’d expect some kind of low to happen next Thursday/Friday. But again, odds now favor them squeezing the bears (nothing new there, as they hate the bears) by breaking out of this triple top range.

Had they not pulled that little stunt yesterday with the quick drop to work off the short term overbought conditions we would probably be starting the down move today. But gangsters will be gangsters and stealing the sheep’s money is what they do best.

Timing the release of bearish news right when the charts are lined up in a certain setup is a master art that they do perfectly. Getting them to release this Greek news right at 3:30 pm EST (just as that 2052 gap was filled), which was like 8:30 pm their time has to tell you it was planned.

Who releases news late at night after your normal business day is closed? No company or government does… unless they want it released at a certain time, which we all know that’s exactly the case. Everything in the market is planned and the release of the news is ALWAYS scheduled around what in the charts and what the criminals what to happen.

SkyNet knew how the technicals in the charts were setting up for a big move down and it had to stop it before it happened. So a quick flush down to wipeout that alignment was done and it basically will buy them a day or so longer for the bulls, and higher prices.

But even more is that “if” they can get it up over this triple top zone and start the bear squeeze they could turn the charts back up to allow them to make a run for that prior all time high. Personally I don’t think they will do that, as I believe we are going to remain in a range bound zone for awhile longer, but never under estimate the manipulation these criminals can do.

So I don’t have any prediction on which way the market is going next. It’s the toss of a coin at this point. The charts say we fail to breakout and drop, but the manipulation of SkyNet says we go up and squeeze the bears. For now I just wait and watch for some new setup to appear.

... Red Dragon Leo

There’s the downside move… a surprise and tricky one (of course). Don’t know what to think now? Wednesday’s rarely (7% of the time) put in a high or low for any given week. So do we still go up tomorrow? Odds say we do, but charts say the top was just put in right before that fast drop.