The main thing to remember is to close out shorts tomorrow morning on any gap down. Practically all NFP (non-farm payroll) days have reversed whatever they did at the open. Meaning… if they gap up, they proceed to sell back off throughout the rest of the day. If they gap down, they proceed to rally back up the rest of the day.
It doesn’t mean it will be a large move after the gap up or down, only that it will reverse and erase most the gains you may have made. The common reversal period is anywhere from the first opening candle to as late as 11am or so. I think it will happen fast as the 60 and 30 minute charts are both approaching oversold conditions. Be fast on your feet…
If we hit the 119.06 print I might go long, but if it rallies big into the close tomorrow I’ll probably exit the position and sit in cash over the weekend.
The reason that we won’t continue down past the 119.06 print John, is because the daily chart (and weekly) still have room to rally on the upside. You have too follow the technical’s first and then use the FP’s as targets when going in that direction. We should drop tomorrow morning and then reverse back up to close about flat (slightly up or down, but not big in either direction). I’ll close out my shorts on any drop in the morning.
That FP from zstock7 translate into a 30% down fall in the Hong Kong market. If the sp500 drops 30% that would be a 360 point drop down to 840 sp. Mid Sept top to early Oct bottom time frame. I was a little shocked to see zstocks Fp due to the fact, that I always believed the drop was going down to that level.
red, I remembered that you posted some FP SPY 104.6 and 88.5, not sure the exact number, but in that range. Now we have FP 119.06 and 127.01, how do you know the sequence of hitting them? Is there any reason it will hit 119.06, bounce to 127.01 and then go downhill, not test 119.06 and then 104.6?
The main thing to remember is to close out shorts tomorrow morning on any gap down. Practically all NFP (non-farm payroll) days have reversed whatever they did at the open. Meaning… if they gap up, they proceed to sell back off throughout the rest of the day. If they gap down, they proceed to rally back up the rest of the day.
It doesn’t mean it will be a large move after the gap up or down, only that it will reverse and erase most the gains you may have made. The common reversal period is anywhere from the first opening candle to as late as 11am or so. I think it will happen fast as the 60 and 30 minute charts are both approaching oversold conditions. Be fast on your feet…
Sounds good to me Red. I would be extremely happy !!
I see, thanks, red.
If we hit the 119.06 print I might go long, but if it rallies big into the close tomorrow I’ll probably exit the position and sit in cash over the weekend.
Thanks Simon for the offer. I’m sure there’s nothing wrong with mine, but it’s simply “operator error”… LOL
The reason that we won’t continue down past the 119.06 print John, is because the daily chart (and weekly) still have room to rally on the upside. You have too follow the technical’s first and then use the FP’s as targets when going in that direction. We should drop tomorrow morning and then reverse back up to close about flat (slightly up or down, but not big in either direction). I’ll close out my shorts on any drop in the morning.
Hey GL, how about 885 spx and Dow 8300? That should be close enough to that HK FP don’t you think?
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/fake-print-885-spx-by-Jason70-on-10-01-2010.png
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/dow-fake-print-8300-01-on-july-07-2010.jpg
That FP from zstock7 translate into a 30% down fall in the Hong Kong market. If the sp500 drops 30% that would be a 360 point drop down to 840 sp. Mid Sept top to early Oct bottom time frame. I was a little shocked to see zstocks Fp due to the fact, that I always believed the drop was going down to that level.
SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/09/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
red, I remembered that you posted some FP SPY 104.6 and 88.5, not sure the exact number, but in that range. Now we have FP 119.06 and 127.01, how do you know the sequence of hitting them? Is there any reason it will hit 119.06, bounce to 127.01 and then go downhill, not test 119.06 and then 104.6?