As I expected the futures rallied last night to continue to work off the oversold conditions on the short term charts. I had seen the ES up as much as 15 points before going to bed last night. This morning the futures rolled back over after becoming overbought on the 60 and 2 hour charts.
Right now the ES is down about 15 points, and I think it will continue down once the market opens. The SPX looks overbought on the 30, 60 and 2 hour charts as well, which leads me to believe that the ES rolling over will force the SPX to rollover too.
While it’s possible that the SPX could continue a little higher on the MACD’s, it would only delay the selling until Friday. But since the ES is already heading down, the more likely scenario is that the SPX follows and another 500-1000 point drop happens again today.
That’s why I think we’ll see another crash day today, like Monday did. Since tomorrow is Friday and the last day of the week, we should expect the momentum to carry over into it too, as we’ll likely see panic finally set in as traders finally give up on trying to pick the bottom and go long.
I’m sure I’ll exit my shorts by the close on Friday no matter what happens, and wait to see what Monday brings. If we get the kind of selling I’m expecting today and Friday, I’m sure we’ll see some type of rally on Monday to work off the short term oversold conditions that will likely have formed.
138 for the SPY wont happen, it may fill in 1 QTR of 2012 not before.
Also, FP that was back on 4/14/2011 VXX = 47.74 and on 4/25/2011 BGZ = $62.41
Notice the numbers added and it shows 8 – could that be August….hummmmm
Dates to watch as danger would be 8/12, 8/14, 8/25
takes 4 to 5 days for rsi 25 and under stocks to get a base going,
they have to keep retesting their recent lows
then they take off to rsi 50—this is day 2
jackson hole, later this month. i suspect something “creative” will come
out of that. and how about a market run up ahead of that meeting—call
it “insider trading”—maybe.
11-08-11, special date…
sss
Quick Thursday Update….
As I expected the futures rallied last night to continue to work off the oversold conditions on the short term charts. I had seen the ES up as much as 15 points before going to bed last night. This morning the futures rolled back over after becoming overbought on the 60 and 2 hour charts.
Right now the ES is down about 15 points, and I think it will continue down once the market opens. The SPX looks overbought on the 30, 60 and 2 hour charts as well, which leads me to believe that the ES rolling over will force the SPX to rollover too.
While it’s possible that the SPX could continue a little higher on the MACD’s, it would only delay the selling until Friday. But since the ES is already heading down, the more likely scenario is that the SPX follows and another 500-1000 point drop happens again today.
That’s why I think we’ll see another crash day today, like Monday did. Since tomorrow is Friday and the last day of the week, we should expect the momentum to carry over into it too, as we’ll likely see panic finally set in as traders finally give up on trying to pick the bottom and go long.
I’m sure I’ll exit my shorts by the close on Friday no matter what happens, and wait to see what Monday brings. If we get the kind of selling I’m expecting today and Friday, I’m sure we’ll see some type of rally on Monday to work off the short term oversold conditions that will likely have formed.
Go luck as usual gang…
Red
Whatever it is…that plus the MBS garbage reinvestment, can “slow the fall” substantially.
138 for the SPY wont happen, it may fill in 1 QTR of 2012 not before.
Also, FP that was back on 4/14/2011 VXX = 47.74 and on 4/25/2011 BGZ = $62.41
Notice the numbers added and it shows 8 – could that be August….hummmmm
Dates to watch as danger would be 8/12, 8/14, 8/25
takes 4 to 5 days for rsi 25 and under stocks to get a base going,
they have to keep retesting their recent lows
then they take off to rsi 50—this is day 2
1800 gold, makes me wonder if jackson hole is going to deliver some more stimulus of some sort.
went long some OIH companies end of day
jackson hole, later this month. i suspect something “creative” will come
out of that. and how about a market run up ahead of that meeting—call
it “insider trading”—maybe.
Red really good stuff lately. Have you got an archive of all the FP’s somewhere. I remember seeing it at one time.