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S&P 500 Analysis after closing: http://stk.ly/r94a8B

My strategy is to play the full moon period which is bearish and lasts all the way into next week. I don’t expect any chance at bullish price action that lasts until next week when the bullish new moon period starts.

We have DIA and QQQ prints much lower still, so no rush to get bullish yet. If they can rally more, the spread between the market value and the prints is guaranteed profits, so I actually hope for a bounce tomorrow or Wed.

“If” we gap down tomorrow, I think it will be quickly reversed.  We still have the 22.35 VXX FP to be hit, and a gap down in the morning would hit it perfectly.  After that, it should fall and the market should rally the rest of the week.  While I still think it will be a RED week, it should recover a lot of this fall I believe.  You know the gangsters need to make all those freshly bought puts expire worthless.  LOL

I doubt the market can gap down big again three days in a row. I still have shorts but raised some cash hoping for a rally or gap up tomorrow. Wednesday is seasonally bullish so I’d be hedged a little Wed.

SPY Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/07/spy-trend-update_12.html

The SPY could drop to about 131.25 or so, and backtest the falling trendline from the May 1st high connected to the May 31st high and currently pointing around that area.

The same trendline on IWM puts it around 82.00 or slightly under.  On the SPX it’s coming in around 1312, but the ES is already resting on that trendline right now (around 1315), and should give it support.  If it breaks… uh oh, look out below!  LOL

SPY Chart: http://stk.ly/nd62nm

Well, I do see one more push down today, as we are forming a bear flag right now.  Plus, “if?” that FP on the VXX is real, then it still has more to go up as it’s only around 21.41 right now.  That means the market should go down another wave… like maybe a wave 5 to complete this pattern?

I covered some shorts after that morning dump. Looking to reload higher up.

Every day of my life it’s risk-free profits. No man living in that environment will live for very long.