I still don’t like what I’ve seen. Still need to see a final washout with RSI hitting around the 30 level while 20 EMA crosses below the 50. Today’s action has the 20 flattening so no cross is possible until a continued decline. So now looking for a low Tuesday at the earliest. Still following a certain little analog but lagging a bit.
The SP closed closer to its high. According to the analog, it should have finished at the midpoint of its daily range. The NYA and Nasdaq looked more in line with the analog.
Next week might need to see the indices finish down and close below certain weekly MAs before a bounce can ensue. 3 down weeks off the top.
The euro, aussie, and crude oil were all down on the day which didn’t make sense considering the action in the stock indices. When the bounce comes, they should all rally.
Geccko, they should recapture the 1955-1960 SPX level tomorrow (Friday) as they need to close the weekly chart out at or above the rising trendline from 2011 as shown here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
I don’t think it will break this week, but next week is another story. Not sure on it but I suspect it will breakdown by next Friday’s close and be below that trendline. That’s the first sign that the bull rally has ended.
I was looking for a low on Friday/ tomorrow but things haven’t quite played out as they should have. So more likely a low on Monday concurrent with a 1000 new lows on the NYSE. Things are getting quite extreme on a certain little indicator with its component needing to make a big splash first for a low to hold.
This rally (which should last into the close today) isn’t likely to hold. I expect another move down tomorrow take out the bulls that went long at the current low today. The bottom isn’t in yet and shouldn’t appear until late next week. We should pierce through the 1905 SPX cash and 1890 ES futures before we start a nice rally that should last for a week or so.
Yep..even Bernie Madoff would have been embarrassed by that crock of shit BS “screen shot” online acct statement. Now Madoff was the master of providing realistic phony account value statements and online account value updates to clients and prospective clients.His phony client online account updates are/were legendary. Client logs on and sees his or her account steadily rising in value complete with blinking lights and lots of profit “green”. – “Damn this Bernie is a brilliant money manager,our account just keeps getting bigger” – Some accounts we’re “showing to be up many millions of dollars in profit. Of course in truth..not only was there zero profits….the was also no principal left and no “real” account that ever existed. All customer accounts were very sophisticated on line illusions to “placate” investors. Easy Peazy these days with computer trickery. Thats how he got suckers to fork over $50 Billion bucks of Ponzi scheme dough . Madoff fooled and conned the best of the best there for about 30 years…..sealing his deals with with totally bogus realistic looking online account statements.
Someone told me that he did some backtest study that said Wednesday’s only put in the high or low for any given week 7% of the time. Since we are below Monday and Tuesday’s low odd’s are 93% that we’ll see a lower low Thursday or Friday.
Looks like we are going to hit the 1935 before this week ends. Possibly a small bounce tomorrow and another flush out to hit that low? Getting pretty oversold short term and seeing positive divergences. And we need to recapture 1960 on the weekly close or we break the 2011 rising trendline… and that’s VERY Bearish!
I was expecting more on the upside but the rally died out at the double top area around 1985 SPX. The selloff to follow wasn’t something i was expecting… at least not as big. The longer this sideways chop continues the more bearish the market is. Failure today to hold the high isn’t good for the bulls.
While there’s still some time later this week to rally it’s not looking a promising as it looked before today. One big problem is the IWM not rallying up with the SPX. The QQQ’s rallied up and was the strongest it appears but ever day that goes by without a breakout to the upside says the bears are winning and indicate we could break the 2011 rising trendline of support on the weekly chart this Friday if the bulls don’t kick it in gear soon.
ok..just read it. 🙂 Yea hard to say…but if there is a BIG trade coming soon..I’ll still say it’s to the downside.Hope we see that 1905 again soon for a re-test and then we should really find out “whats what” going into the Oct/Nov period. Hold or fold time. I’ll swing by tmrw and give my thoughts again.
I still don’t like what I’ve seen. Still need to see a final washout with RSI hitting around the 30 level while 20 EMA crosses below the 50. Today’s action has the 20 flattening so no cross is possible until a continued decline. So now looking for a low Tuesday at the earliest. Still following a certain little analog but lagging a bit.
The SP closed closer to its high. According to the analog, it should have finished at the midpoint of its daily range. The NYA and Nasdaq looked more in line with the analog.
Next week might need to see the indices finish down and close below certain weekly MAs before a bounce can ensue. 3 down weeks off the top.
The euro, aussie, and crude oil were all down on the day which didn’t make sense considering the action in the stock indices. When the bounce comes, they should all rally.
Geccko, they should recapture the 1955-1960 SPX level tomorrow (Friday) as they need to close the weekly chart out at or above the rising trendline from 2011 as shown here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
I don’t think it will break this week, but next week is another story. Not sure on it but I suspect it will breakdown by next Friday’s close and be below that trendline. That’s the first sign that the bull rally has ended.
I was looking for a low on Friday/ tomorrow but things haven’t quite played out as they should have. So more likely a low on Monday concurrent with a 1000 new lows on the NYSE. Things are getting quite extreme on a certain little indicator with its component needing to make a big splash first for a low to hold.
This rally (which should last into the close today) isn’t likely to hold. I expect another move down tomorrow take out the bulls that went long at the current low today. The bottom isn’t in yet and shouldn’t appear until late next week. We should pierce through the 1905 SPX cash and 1890 ES futures before we start a nice rally that should last for a week or so.
Yep..even Bernie Madoff would have been embarrassed by that crock of shit BS “screen shot” online acct statement. Now Madoff was the master of providing realistic phony account value statements and online account value updates to clients and prospective clients.His phony client online account updates are/were legendary. Client logs on and sees his or her account steadily rising in value complete with blinking lights and lots of profit “green”. – “Damn this Bernie is a brilliant money manager,our account just keeps getting bigger” – Some accounts we’re “showing to be up many millions of dollars in profit. Of course in truth..not only was there zero profits….the was also no principal left and no “real” account that ever existed. All customer accounts were very sophisticated on line illusions to “placate” investors. Easy Peazy these days with computer trickery. Thats how he got suckers to fork over $50 Billion bucks of Ponzi scheme dough . Madoff fooled and conned the best of the best there for about 30 years…..sealing his deals with with totally bogus realistic looking online account statements.
Someone told me that he did some backtest study that said Wednesday’s only put in the high or low for any given week 7% of the time. Since we are below Monday and Tuesday’s low odd’s are 93% that we’ll see a lower low Thursday or Friday.
Looks like we are going to hit the 1935 before this week ends. Possibly a small bounce tomorrow and another flush out to hit that low? Getting pretty oversold short term and seeing positive divergences. And we need to recapture 1960 on the weekly close or we break the 2011 rising trendline… and that’s VERY Bearish!
I was expecting more on the upside but the rally died out at the double top area around 1985 SPX. The selloff to follow wasn’t something i was expecting… at least not as big. The longer this sideways chop continues the more bearish the market is. Failure today to hold the high isn’t good for the bulls.
While there’s still some time later this week to rally it’s not looking a promising as it looked before today. One big problem is the IWM not rallying up with the SPX. The QQQ’s rallied up and was the strongest it appears but ever day that goes by without a breakout to the upside says the bears are winning and indicate we could break the 2011 rising trendline of support on the weekly chart this Friday if the bulls don’t kick it in gear soon.
Morning Market update: http://screencast.com/t/BH4fIKzY6w
ok..just read it. 🙂 Yea hard to say…but if there is a BIG trade coming soon..I’ll still say it’s to the downside.Hope we see that 1905 again soon for a re-test and then we should really find out “whats what” going into the Oct/Nov period. Hold or fold time. I’ll swing by tmrw and give my thoughts again.
LOL… just posted a new comment above basically agreeing with your thoughts.