From the looks of things today, we probably aren’t going to sell off into the close as previously thought. We really need to see all 3 of those conditions I posted earlier met before I think they will let it rollover.
A common thing I’ve noticed that they do is to close at a high, get all the amateur bears short into that close, and then open up with a “gap up” the next day to squeeze them out.
They would then hit the vix target, gap fill on the spy and double top on dow with one quick move… then sell off the rest of the day.
So, a failure to fulfill those 3 items today makes me believe they will do it tomorrow morning.
good one. And, even if we do get a higher swing high on the spx, doesnt mean we wont get a lower swing low. you know how desperate these monsters are to steal, so they could throw a curve ball. so we can throw that bit of ta out the door. trendlines, volume, divergances- only work when they want to. Once momentum gets going it defies alot of conventional ta.
IWM (the Russell 2000) had an intraday high of 83.59 on 02-28-2011, and then a new high yesterday at 83.78… if it closes above that level again today, it will confirm that it will most likely continue higher. A failure to close above it will allow it to sell off (and the rest of the market should follow too).
its called Q1 corporate earnings ~ its called margin compression. we started to see last quarter from cisco to krogers. it will only get worse, as the entire cost of material inputs have not been passed to end consumers…. and QE end/?? potentially.
concerning QE i expect the fed to announce NO QE moving forward. this will have an immediate impact on all markets. they will be disingenuous, as they will quietly keep their balance sheet at current levels. With a 3 trillion dollar b/s, the stock of treasuries becomes the flows. they will quietly ‘reinvest’ maturing $$ amounts to have a quiet QE far into the future. i calculate they will have from 650 – 750 billion/yr maturing to reinvest in supporting the governements cocaine spending habits. the markets will drop to the 850-950 area in a knee jerk reaction, but then as time moves forward, and the ‘given’ that the world is still functioning ~ this may be the launching point to new highs for the markets (as much as this disturbs me).
of course, $200 oil, social unrest, nuclear bombs going off in america, world war III, then the cards are off the table…….
guys.. this market does not seem like it will tank.. unless something crazy happen in the world… and if market falls on no news… whats wrong with the pic ?
today’s ‘gap up’ ~ more than any other manipulated ‘gap up’ since the 666 lows ~ has a sense and sensibility of a ‘finality’, almost can be characterized as ‘desperate’ in nature. this angle of the ascent from 1249 is severe ~ close to vertical ~ this is unsustainable, and it is done in defference to the headline risk….
is this the last ‘hurrah’? it sure has that feel!
prediction; no double top in the spx. a non comformation of indexes, with the dow squeeking out a new high. then it is down to 900 – 950 in the spx by may/june.
on the daily charts of the indicies, the adx is still pointing down. even on the few where the di lines made a positive crossover, like the rut and dow. so, we have no confirmation there yet.
Maybe an inverse head and shoulders on the 60 min SPX? Looks like it could be forming. That would coincide with a pullback to form the inverse right shoulder.
From the looks of things today, we probably aren’t going to sell off into the close as previously thought. We really need to see all 3 of those conditions I posted earlier met before I think they will let it rollover.
A common thing I’ve noticed that they do is to close at a high, get all the amateur bears short into that close, and then open up with a “gap up” the next day to squeeze them out.
They would then hit the vix target, gap fill on the spy and double top on dow with one quick move… then sell off the rest of the day.
So, a failure to fulfill those 3 items today makes me believe they will do it tomorrow morning.
dow “M” for murder?
good one. And, even if we do get a higher swing high on the spx, doesnt mean we wont get a lower swing low. you know how desperate these monsters are to steal, so they could throw a curve ball. so we can throw that bit of ta out the door. trendlines, volume, divergances- only work when they want to. Once momentum gets going it defies alot of conventional ta.
IWM (the Russell 2000) had an intraday high of 83.59 on 02-28-2011, and then a new high yesterday at 83.78… if it closes above that level again today, it will confirm that it will most likely continue higher. A failure to close above it will allow it to sell off (and the rest of the market should follow too).
b,
its called Q1 corporate earnings ~ its called margin compression. we started to see last quarter from cisco to krogers. it will only get worse, as the entire cost of material inputs have not been passed to end consumers…. and QE end/?? potentially.
concerning QE i expect the fed to announce NO QE moving forward. this will have an immediate impact on all markets. they will be disingenuous, as they will quietly keep their balance sheet at current levels. With a 3 trillion dollar b/s, the stock of treasuries becomes the flows. they will quietly ‘reinvest’ maturing $$ amounts to have a quiet QE far into the future. i calculate they will have from 650 – 750 billion/yr maturing to reinvest in supporting the governements cocaine spending habits. the markets will drop to the 850-950 area in a knee jerk reaction, but then as time moves forward, and the ‘given’ that the world is still functioning ~ this may be the launching point to new highs for the markets (as much as this disturbs me).
of course, $200 oil, social unrest, nuclear bombs going off in america, world war III, then the cards are off the table…….
guys.. this market does not seem like it will tank.. unless something crazy happen in the world… and if market falls on no news… whats wrong with the pic ?
honestly,
today’s ‘gap up’ ~ more than any other manipulated ‘gap up’ since the 666 lows ~ has a sense and sensibility of a ‘finality’, almost can be characterized as ‘desperate’ in nature. this angle of the ascent from 1249 is severe ~ close to vertical ~ this is unsustainable, and it is done in defference to the headline risk….
is this the last ‘hurrah’? it sure has that feel!
prediction; no double top in the spx. a non comformation of indexes, with the dow squeeking out a new high. then it is down to 900 – 950 in the spx by may/june.
on the daily charts of the indicies, the adx is still pointing down. even on the few where the di lines made a positive crossover, like the rut and dow. so, we have no confirmation there yet.
That would make a lot sense too me… assuming it stops at a higher low and doesn’t take out the 1249 spx low?
Question is… are which pattern is valid? An inverted H&S pattern, or an Elliottwave Wave 3 down to new lows? I can’t answer that of course…
Maybe an inverse head and shoulders on the 60 min SPX? Looks like it could be forming. That would coincide with a pullback to form the inverse right shoulder.