I had given up on this move up we are having now as I was expecting it to happen in the morning session. It should be the “stop clearing out” move that I previously was expecting and with that said the highest I could see it go it that 1945-1950 SPX area.
However, it could end lower then that. It really depends on the close today. If we fall back and put in a decent topping tail then I’d say it’s done today at whatever level we hit a high today. If it closes near the top then we should have a brief follow through tomorrow morning to hit that target zone.
This was a tough one that fooled me. I really wanted to short the 1945-1950 area but when it didn’t happen in the morning I thought it wasn’t going to happen. Regardless, after it hits (or not?) I’m looking for a move down to start with the gap fill level of 190.29 SPY being the first downside target.
Glad to see you stop by Jesterx. Yeah, it’s pretty dead out there on the “Bear Blog” world. But I think things are going to start heating up for them here soon.
I think we’re done on the upside Ben. I don’t see us getting up to that 1945-1950 SPX area now. It looks too weak and today should have been the day to do it. I’m now in short and will ride it up to there if need be but right now I see nothing else coming (news wise) that could get that kind of move up.
The ECB cut interest rates today and that should have fueled the market higher. It moved it up a little but not as much as I’d like to have seen. So without anymore big news events I don’t see much chance of another move up. But do note that I’m only looking for a 2-4% correction here.
I think this is all we are going to get on the upside for awhile. I’m taking a short position today and will ride out the move up another 10 points or so if it happens. Good Luck Bears….
looks like you may get that squeeze to 1945-50. good call.- i’ve been hitting many of the other sites on your blogroll the last week or so. most are pretty quiet right now as far as comments, with the exception of daneric’s elliot wave blog – . the only problem being…is most of the posts are bickering insults and false bravado among 2 or 3 regulars…and very little short to medium term ‘predictions’. – anyway,thanks. looking forward to your next post.
We still have NOT topped yet to produce a nice 2-4% down move. Since we are chopping sideways today and yesterday it’s clear that this is a bull flag of some kind and it should pop higher later this week to clear out all the bears shorting right now.
The typical move higher is around 25-30 points from what I’ve noticed in the past. Therefore I’m expecting a squeeze higher to 1945-1950 as soon as this bull flag plays out. If I had to guess on what day it would happen I’d say this Thursday from the Jobless Claims number.
It should be an exhaustion gap higher to clear out stops currently being put in. Then I think we’ll see it rollover that day and start our 2-4% correction. Now since there is NO negative divergence yet on the daily chart that tells me we should still see a higher high before it starts a larger 10%+ correction.
So after this one is done I think we’ll rally into mid-July and make a higher high to finally put in the high for this year (well, most likely it will be), which will likely be above 2000 on the SPX. But on the short term there is money to be made on this move down as it could test that weekly rising trendline from 2011 again… if it’s a big drop.
If it’s a 2-4% drop (which is what I’m expecting) then we might only hit the rising trendline from February of 2013, which is around 1850-1855 area, whereas the other trendline is around 1750 area and is probably too far down to go if they plan on going up to another higher high into mid-July (and I believe they are).
Therefore I would not look for any move below that higher rising trendline to happen. That’s the area I’d expect a bottom to occur and then a rally into the July 4th holiday and into the middle of July. So again, this Thursday I’m looking for a gap up from the rigged Jobless Claims numbers and then a sell off to start that should last until around 1850 area before bottoming.
Naturally things can change along the way and I’ll post those changes when I see them, but for now that’s the best guess I have based on what I see in the charts and important ritual dates.
Like Ewan McGregor although he’s technically too old for the part but never heard of the director or most of the supporting cast. Stellan Skaarsgard doesn’t seem to have the physicality for the Dima role. It’s a little worrisome. I don’t know if they’re going to get the little details right.
I had given up on this move up we are having now as I was expecting it to happen in the morning session. It should be the “stop clearing out” move that I previously was expecting and with that said the highest I could see it go it that 1945-1950 SPX area.
However, it could end lower then that. It really depends on the close today. If we fall back and put in a decent topping tail then I’d say it’s done today at whatever level we hit a high today. If it closes near the top then we should have a brief follow through tomorrow morning to hit that target zone.
This was a tough one that fooled me. I really wanted to short the 1945-1950 area but when it didn’t happen in the morning I thought it wasn’t going to happen. Regardless, after it hits (or not?) I’m looking for a move down to start with the gap fill level of 190.29 SPY being the first downside target.
Glad to see you stop by Jesterx. Yeah, it’s pretty dead out there on the “Bear Blog” world. But I think things are going to start heating up for them here soon.
I think we’re done on the upside Ben. I don’t see us getting up to that 1945-1950 SPX area now. It looks too weak and today should have been the day to do it. I’m now in short and will ride it up to there if need be but right now I see nothing else coming (news wise) that could get that kind of move up.
The ECB cut interest rates today and that should have fueled the market higher. It moved it up a little but not as much as I’d like to have seen. So without anymore big news events I don’t see much chance of another move up. But do note that I’m only looking for a 2-4% correction here.
I think this is all we are going to get on the upside for awhile. I’m taking a short position today and will ride out the move up another 10 points or so if it happens. Good Luck Bears….
Great video mate.
i also try to look at the sentiment trader daily analysis here -> http://bit.ly/1fMcakI
Their calls in the current BULL MARKET have been insanely GOOD!
It makes trading this god damn MANIPULARTED market alot easier
looks like you may get that squeeze to 1945-50. good call.- i’ve been hitting many of the other sites on your blogroll the last week or so. most are pretty quiet right now as far as comments, with the exception of daneric’s elliot wave blog – . the only problem being…is most of the posts are bickering insults and false bravado among 2 or 3 regulars…and very little short to medium term ‘predictions’. – anyway,thanks. looking forward to your next post.
Here’s a chart showing those trendlines: http://screencast.com/t/whV0QFNA
We still have NOT topped yet to produce a nice 2-4% down move. Since we are chopping sideways today and yesterday it’s clear that this is a bull flag of some kind and it should pop higher later this week to clear out all the bears shorting right now.
The typical move higher is around 25-30 points from what I’ve noticed in the past. Therefore I’m expecting a squeeze higher to 1945-1950 as soon as this bull flag plays out. If I had to guess on what day it would happen I’d say this Thursday from the Jobless Claims number.
It should be an exhaustion gap higher to clear out stops currently being put in. Then I think we’ll see it rollover that day and start our 2-4% correction. Now since there is NO negative divergence yet on the daily chart that tells me we should still see a higher high before it starts a larger 10%+ correction.
So after this one is done I think we’ll rally into mid-July and make a higher high to finally put in the high for this year (well, most likely it will be), which will likely be above 2000 on the SPX. But on the short term there is money to be made on this move down as it could test that weekly rising trendline from 2011 again… if it’s a big drop.
If it’s a 2-4% drop (which is what I’m expecting) then we might only hit the rising trendline from February of 2013, which is around 1850-1855 area, whereas the other trendline is around 1750 area and is probably too far down to go if they plan on going up to another higher high into mid-July (and I believe they are).
Therefore I would not look for any move below that higher rising trendline to happen. That’s the area I’d expect a bottom to occur and then a rally into the July 4th holiday and into the middle of July. So again, this Thursday I’m looking for a gap up from the rigged Jobless Claims numbers and then a sell off to start that should last until around 1850 area before bottoming.
Naturally things can change along the way and I’ll post those changes when I see them, but for now that’s the best guess I have based on what I see in the charts and important ritual dates.
EURUSD Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/06/eurusd-chart-analysis.html
Looks like they’re making a film version of Our Kind of Traitor with Ewan McGregor as the lead. Some photos of the shoot in Switzerland:
http://www.justjared.com/2014/04/21/ewan-mcgregor-looks-serious-as-our-kind-of-traitor/
Like Ewan McGregor although he’s technically too old for the part but never heard of the director or most of the supporting cast. Stellan Skaarsgard doesn’t seem to have the physicality for the Dima role. It’s a little worrisome. I don’t know if they’re going to get the little details right.