Market breadth was surprisingly weak on this sizeable upday. Very interesting. The Russell 2000 vastly underperformed the Dow which is similar to another quaint time some 26 (8)years 7 months ago when the indices bounced off their lower BBs like the Dow did today after hitting it yesterday. Dow bounced from its lower BB to mid Bollinger band line ie 20 day average today.
Noticed that some of the retailers continued to get smacked down like URBN yesterday (due in part to 9% y/yr sales decline at its namesake store) and WFM recently. Both are below their 20 month aka 400 day moving averages, key bear market signs.
With this week going into the Memorial Day Holiday I’d expect them to hold the market up to make it look good for the sheep so they’ll go spend more money they don’t have thinking the stock market will always go up.
But I will say that they are struggling to fulfill that goal so far as even though Monday (May 19th) was the lightest trading day so far this year they can’t seem to get the market to make a new high again.
And I’ve also noticed that there is now “broad based” selling now whereas the last month there was only sector rotation. This is a warning sign that a sell off is near.
Not a crash but a nice move down. And since this coming 29th of May is late next week after the 3 day holiday, it still could be the last important high before a nice drop starts.
Usually the first day after a holiday the traders are still hungover and not doing to much. That would be Tuesday as Monday is Memorial Day and the market is closed. Then Wednesday they come alive again and prepare for data that comes out on Thursdays and Fridays.
Now since the 29th is a ritual “eleven” day, as well as in the middle of another Legatus meeting, the odds are pretty good for a sell off I think.
The charts certainly support it, the history of the market around holidays support any bigger move NOT starting until the week after a holiday ends. Then there’s the “end of the month re-balancing” where big institutions shift around what they own and don’t own during the last 3 days of the month.
Most of the time they will buy quality stocks during this period to show their customers who put in their money into these firms to trade it that they don’t take high risks and only trade solid companies like the old bellwethers found on the DOW.
Naturally they don’t want their clients knowing they have have been gambling with worthless stocks like Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, etc… so they lie about what they’ve owned. Nothing surprising there.
Since Friday May 30th is the last trading day of May it stands to reason that we’ll see some small rally Tuesday through Thursday of that week to close out their books saying they owned all these quality stocks.
But I wouldn’t expect them to hold on to them past Friday the 30th, and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t peak on Thursday during the first half of the day and then start tanking into Friday as they turn around and unload the stocks they buy up 2-3 days prior to meet the requirements set for them by the SEC to allow them to legally lie to the sheep about what stocks they have been trading.
This all sets the stage for a nice move down in June which I think we’ll see. Then a rally into early July followed by another nasty sell off (which could be a mini-crash since it might end up being a larger wave 3 down) followed by big rally afterwards.
All in all the market is showing some serious signs of weakness now and “if” they let it play out we should see it start late next week with the 29th being the ideal topping day.
Re-looking at the various indexes, time frames and charts I’d would add that “if” this top trendline is hit on the rising channel (also a bear flag) on the QQQ’s I’d look to short the market even though we are expected to have light volume this week.
I think the QQQ’s will fall to the 80 area in the coming weeks and into next month before we have a nice bounce. From looking at the top trendline I’m guessing it will be around 88.75-89.00 when hit either tomorrow or Wednesday. That’s about the only short I’m interested in at the moment.
Considering the expected light volume later this week due to the upcoming holiday weekend I’m expecting nothing but chop between now and then. I don’t think we’ll make a new high but I won’t rule it out completely. And of course I don’t think we’ll take out the current low.
This could actually play out as I suggested it might a week or so ago. Meaning we could still put in a top on the 29th. Now the question is… will it be a slightly higher high, slightly lower or a double top? I don’t know? I’m not to excited about a short position or a long position at the moment.
Market breadth was surprisingly weak on this sizeable upday. Very interesting. The Russell 2000 vastly underperformed the Dow which is similar to another quaint time some 26 (8)years 7 months ago when the indices bounced off their lower BBs like the Dow did today after hitting it yesterday. Dow bounced from its lower BB to mid Bollinger band line ie 20 day average today.
Noticed that some of the retailers continued to get smacked down like URBN yesterday (due in part to 9% y/yr sales decline at its namesake store) and WFM recently. Both are below their 20 month aka 400 day moving averages, key bear market signs.
Facebook charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/facebook-triangle-pattern.html
With this week going into the Memorial Day Holiday I’d expect them to hold the market up to make it look good for the sheep so they’ll go spend more money they don’t have thinking the stock market will always go up.
But I will say that they are struggling to fulfill that goal so far as even though Monday (May 19th) was the lightest trading day so far this year they can’t seem to get the market to make a new high again.
And I’ve also noticed that there is now “broad based” selling now whereas the last month there was only sector rotation. This is a warning sign that a sell off is near.
Not a crash but a nice move down. And since this coming 29th of May is late next week after the 3 day holiday, it still could be the last important high before a nice drop starts.
Usually the first day after a holiday the traders are still hungover and not doing to much. That would be Tuesday as Monday is Memorial Day and the market is closed. Then Wednesday they come alive again and prepare for data that comes out on Thursdays and Fridays.
Now since the 29th is a ritual “eleven” day, as well as in the middle of another Legatus meeting, the odds are pretty good for a sell off I think.
The charts certainly support it, the history of the market around holidays support any bigger move NOT starting until the week after a holiday ends. Then there’s the “end of the month re-balancing” where big institutions shift around what they own and don’t own during the last 3 days of the month.
Most of the time they will buy quality stocks during this period to show their customers who put in their money into these firms to trade it that they don’t take high risks and only trade solid companies like the old bellwethers found on the DOW.
Naturally they don’t want their clients knowing they have have been gambling with worthless stocks like Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, etc… so they lie about what they’ve owned. Nothing surprising there.
Since Friday May 30th is the last trading day of May it stands to reason that we’ll see some small rally Tuesday through Thursday of that week to close out their books saying they owned all these quality stocks.
But I wouldn’t expect them to hold on to them past Friday the 30th, and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t peak on Thursday during the first half of the day and then start tanking into Friday as they turn around and unload the stocks they buy up 2-3 days prior to meet the requirements set for them by the SEC to allow them to legally lie to the sheep about what stocks they have been trading.
This all sets the stage for a nice move down in June which I think we’ll see. Then a rally into early July followed by another nasty sell off (which could be a mini-crash since it might end up being a larger wave 3 down) followed by big rally afterwards.
All in all the market is showing some serious signs of weakness now and “if” they let it play out we should see it start late next week with the 29th being the ideal topping day.
La Doppia (H)ora!!!!…………my Idsake.
ES Charts update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/es-chart-analysis_20.html
Re-looking at the various indexes, time frames and charts I’d would add that “if” this top trendline is hit on the rising channel (also a bear flag) on the QQQ’s I’d look to short the market even though we are expected to have light volume this week.
http://screencast.com/t/IKBGeJ9ii
I think the QQQ’s will fall to the 80 area in the coming weeks and into next month before we have a nice bounce. From looking at the top trendline I’m guessing it will be around 88.75-89.00 when hit either tomorrow or Wednesday. That’s about the only short I’m interested in at the moment.
Considering the expected light volume later this week due to the upcoming holiday weekend I’m expecting nothing but chop between now and then. I don’t think we’ll make a new high but I won’t rule it out completely. And of course I don’t think we’ll take out the current low.
This could actually play out as I suggested it might a week or so ago. Meaning we could still put in a top on the 29th. Now the question is… will it be a slightly higher high, slightly lower or a double top? I don’t know? I’m not to excited about a short position or a long position at the moment.
Obtw Red is creating new site
Of course, Mars Jupiter also in the midst of the fray. There was a Saturn Sun opposition on Sunday as well.
Russell 2000 still below its 200 day average.