No Permabear, I’m neutral just like you. But tomorrow may be a different story? If no higher high is made (then today’s high) I will be looking to short it. It could go up a little more but I don’t see a new all time high as I think 1897 will stand for now.
Ok… I thought you were expecting new all time highs? But you’re
not… so we agree. I seen the transports too and it’s clearly hit
resistance on the same rising trendline, so I don’t think it’s going
higher. The SPX should pullback too and not make a new high. But I’m
not looking for some crash move down… more like a steady trend change
that just keeps both sides guessing the direction.
Correct Permabear… until that weekly rising trendline of support from
1074 SPX in October of 2011 is broken (around 1800 now) we are still in a
bull market. And while I see what you are talking about on the MACD’s
it just doesn’t match up with prior rallies with similar patterns.
I guess it’s possible (of course it’s possible… duh!) that they
manipulate the charts and continue rallying up despite what the charts
say, but right now that’s all I can go by. I just don’t see a new high
in the charts right now. The weekly chart looks different now then it
did in the past with similar patterns. (I cover that in the video).
Anyway, I guess we’ll know by the end of this week if they start moving down as
I expect or if they put in a new high and don’t look back.
One thing is certain, the market is not in some massive “squeeze the bears” move the last few days. It looks more to me like every point higher is a major struggle for the bulls. Definitely strong signs of weakness in this rally. Looks like it’s just waiting for some bad news (maybe some bad earnings?) so it can give up the fight and fall down.
The volume has been so low that you’d think the market has been closed. I don’t think there’s much more life left in these bulls now. If they are going to make a top soon today would be the ideal day. Then start some kind of down move, back up, down again… you know the deal.
But, by the end of the week I’d like to look back and see that Tuesday put in the high. However, I’m not thinking we’ll break that 1800 level this week though. Usually they chop around some in the early stages of a sell off. That’s what I’m expecting here. (Not that I wouldn’t be happy if it just fell off a cliff though… LOL).
Gold analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/gold-trend-analysis.html
ES Charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/es-chart-analysis_23.html
Netflix chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/netflix-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
No Permabear, I’m neutral just like you. But tomorrow may be a different story? If no higher high is made (then today’s high) I will be looking to short it. It could go up a little more but I don’t see a new all time high as I think 1897 will stand for now.
No, I AM expecting new highs.
The transports is AT new highs..and the other indexes will largely follow.
—
Are you shorting this market right now? Just curious.
For the record, I’m content to just sit it out, probably for some weeks, maybe even mid June.
Ok… I thought you were expecting new all time highs? But you’re
not… so we agree. I seen the transports too and it’s clearly hit
resistance on the same rising trendline, so I don’t think it’s going
higher. The SPX should pullback too and not make a new high. But I’m
not looking for some crash move down… more like a steady trend change
that just keeps both sides guessing the direction.
re: I just don’t see a new high in the charts right now.
I refer you to the Transports index. Aka ‘old leader’, and they don’t call it that for no reason.
Correct Permabear… until that weekly rising trendline of support from
1074 SPX in October of 2011 is broken (around 1800 now) we are still in a
bull market. And while I see what you are talking about on the MACD’s
it just doesn’t match up with prior rallies with similar patterns.
I guess it’s possible (of course it’s possible… duh!) that they
manipulate the charts and continue rallying up despite what the charts
say, but right now that’s all I can go by. I just don’t see a new high
in the charts right now. The weekly chart looks different now then it
did in the past with similar patterns. (I cover that in the video).
Anyway, I guess we’ll know by the end of this week if they start moving down as
I expect or if they put in a new high and don’t look back.
Red, what about the weekly charts?
Are you not watching the MACD cycles? Those are offering upside across May, and into mid June.
You talk about the bulls struggling, well..kinda, but the trend IS the trend, and it is NOT down.
Right now, the notion of <1814 looks completely out of range for at least 2-3 months.
One thing is certain, the market is not in some massive “squeeze the bears” move the last few days. It looks more to me like every point higher is a major struggle for the bulls. Definitely strong signs of weakness in this rally. Looks like it’s just waiting for some bad news (maybe some bad earnings?) so it can give up the fight and fall down.
The volume has been so low that you’d think the market has been closed. I don’t think there’s much more life left in these bulls now. If they are going to make a top soon today would be the ideal day. Then start some kind of down move, back up, down again… you know the deal.
But, by the end of the week I’d like to look back and see that Tuesday put in the high. However, I’m not thinking we’ll break that 1800 level this week though. Usually they chop around some in the early stages of a sell off. That’s what I’m expecting here. (Not that I wouldn’t be happy if it just fell off a cliff though… LOL).