I haven’t been around much the last month or so…….but wanted to say…Thanks for the read/conv! Thanks for all that you do Mr. Red…it’s much appreciated!
Have a Merry Chritmas and a Happy New year to you Mr Red and this blog!
Well, regardless of what the grand multi-year high will be…it’ll make for one hell of a better short position than where we currently are.
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I realise some would call prices a bubble right now..but really..PEs are only half of what they have been at key peaks.
The Bernanke paper-bubble..which is what it is..has been one bizarre experience..we’re surely two thirds of the way through this stupid experiment.
No doubt..Yellen will get the blame when it all ends badly..although she supported the original policy anyway.
That should put the DOW at 20,000 or more, and yeah… I could see that too. I don’t really have a clue to what the coming all time high will be in 2017 or so, but it should be high enough to have gotten ever last bear on the planet to becoming a bull.
The sp’2100s are a natural target in the next wave..after a summer/autumn low in 2014.
So…long from 1600..at least 500pts up..if not even higher.
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Here is the issue though, how many bears will get lost in hysteria next year, calling for the end of the world? I’m guessing…most…only to see them get nuked in the final large wave up.
Yes, I could see a top around that February 2014 meeting (again, I think it could be centered around an FOMC just as well) with the drop that follows being very sharp and ending in the summer months.
As far as how low will we go? We could see the September/November 2012 highs revisited I think. That’s just below 1500 SPX, and that’s a very realistic Primary Wave 4 down target. Once the top is in I’d look for Fib levels using the March 2009 low as one point and the coming high as the other.
I certainly hope we don’t crash that far Permabear, but you know they have something like 700-800 TRILLION DOLLARS in those derivatives out there… and that they created them just to crash the market in the future.
Without them then you’re right, the money will have too go somewhere. But if there is not enough money in the entire system to pay off the derivative bets then it will coming crashing down until they are all zeroed out somehow.
I’m not sure how that will happen but these evil people have been planning this since the 1980’s when they created these off book bets. If they get their way then they will shutdown the banks like they told Lindsey they will, but maybe we’ll see some divine intervention to stop it?
EURUSD Hits monthly resistance line: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/12/eurusd-hits-resistance-lines.html
ES update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/12/es-chart-update_27.html
I haven’t been around much the last month or so…….but wanted to say…Thanks for the read/conv! Thanks for all that you do Mr. Red…it’s much appreciated!
Have a Merry Chritmas and a Happy New year to you Mr Red and this blog!
All my best; Seawind
Caterpillar Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/12/caterpillar-breaking-resistance-levels.html
Well, regardless of what the grand multi-year high will be…it’ll make for one hell of a better short position than where we currently are.
–
I realise some would call prices a bubble right now..but really..PEs are only half of what they have been at key peaks.
The Bernanke paper-bubble..which is what it is..has been one bizarre experience..we’re surely two thirds of the way through this stupid experiment.
No doubt..Yellen will get the blame when it all ends badly..although she supported the original policy anyway.
That should put the DOW at 20,000 or more, and yeah… I could see that too. I don’t really have a clue to what the coming all time high will be in 2017 or so, but it should be high enough to have gotten ever last bear on the planet to becoming a bull.
The sp’2100s are a natural target in the next wave..after a summer/autumn low in 2014.
So…long from 1600..at least 500pts up..if not even higher.
—
Here is the issue though, how many bears will get lost in hysteria next year, calling for the end of the world? I’m guessing…most…only to see them get nuked in the final large wave up.
Yes, I could see a top around that February 2014 meeting (again, I think it could be centered around an FOMC just as well) with the drop that follows being very sharp and ending in the summer months.
As far as how low will we go? We could see the September/November 2012 highs revisited I think. That’s just below 1500 SPX, and that’s a very realistic Primary Wave 4 down target. Once the top is in I’d look for Fib levels using the March 2009 low as one point and the coming high as the other.
yes..the derivatives mountain is an issue…hell, even I forget about that little problem sometimes!
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One thing seems clear though…
This will all be resolved with some kind of ‘reset’ by 2018/20.
No doubt the central banks must have all sorts of backup plans in place of a system-break…but still..this is one damn tricky system to predict.
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First things first though…
Lets see how the Fed react to some kind of major market drop next summer. I’m certainly looking for something in the style of 1998 or 2011.
The drop will be strong..but relatively brief. For many…2014 will be very confusing.
I certainly hope we don’t crash that far Permabear, but you know they have something like 700-800 TRILLION DOLLARS in those derivatives out there… and that they created them just to crash the market in the future.
Without them then you’re right, the money will have too go somewhere. But if there is not enough money in the entire system to pay off the derivative bets then it will coming crashing down until they are all zeroed out somehow.
I’m not sure how that will happen but these evil people have been planning this since the 1980’s when they created these off book bets. If they get their way then they will shutdown the banks like they told Lindsey they will, but maybe we’ll see some divine intervention to stop it?