I always get this funny feeling that I’m wrong about my forecast right about the time the market turns. Just when I’m ready to give up… bam, the market reverses! Maybe we’ll see wave 3 down tomorrow? Who knows?
The move down in $VIX was impulsive, this flag is corrective. At this level of $VIX, we are back to early September levels when $SPX was at 1060-1080. This cannot persist forever. I would characterize it as a “stealth correction” similar to when the $VIX rose in late July and early August of 2009.
When measured in gold, $DJIA is near the early September price levels.
Since we are close to the lower BB, it seems that downside risk here is small (!!), which seems totally counter-intuitive. But as you say, support should have broken today. Because it didn’t, my model forces me to go long!
The market didn’t tank today but it looks like it made a major reversal. Bear flips on pretty much most of the indices although most of the flips did not breakaway from their recent ranges. Nasdaq and QQQQ reversals were the most impressive; both made a new daily high with lower RSI reading and then closed beneath last Friday’s low. (gap up open). $vix closed barely above its 50 day average but if it puts another close with some distance above the 50day then it’s game on. McClellan Oscillator with a minor change reading yesterday (probably another one today). I haven’t see anything that would register tomorrow as a significant date(but some do) other than tomorrow is 111 trading days from the April 26 high. We’re also approaching the vicinity of 33 squared days from the October 11 2010 highs. Also fractal similarity to the early August high. Apple,Bidu,Goog with ugly charts/topping patterns. Plus we have had some flash crash previews earlier in the week with PGN and a minor version with Apple. There was a flash crash a few weeks ago with a big name stock that was barely reported (I only saw a slight reference in WSJ)
and here I thought I was the only one who gets those feelings, lol
I always get this funny feeling that I’m wrong about my forecast right about the time the market turns. Just when I’m ready to give up… bam, the market reverses! Maybe we’ll see wave 3 down tomorrow? Who knows?
Thanks Red for holding the fort! I will take 30 percent here?http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-updates-circuit-breaker-trigger-levels-2010-09-30
Only a matter of time and as you have posted before, “Don’t bet against the Sun!” Regards, Robert
New post
spy fp 113.6 and 115.4 emailed
We are also close to 33 squared divided by 9, from the April 2010 highs.
Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
Red, I see the recent moves like this:
1. $VIX is painting a bear flag in a channel:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808&cmd=show%5Bs143877580%5D&disp=P
The move down in $VIX was impulsive, this flag is corrective. At this level of $VIX, we are back to early September levels when $SPX was at 1060-1080. This cannot persist forever. I would characterize it as a “stealth correction” similar to when the $VIX rose in late July and early August of 2009.
2. Dow measured in Gold:
Stealth correction part 2:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folders/Default/media/77c52603-a125-4102-b4ec-5eafaf0d3eff
When measured in gold, $DJIA is near the early September price levels.
Since we are close to the lower BB, it seems that downside risk here is small (!!), which seems totally counter-intuitive. But as you say, support should have broken today. Because it didn’t, my model forces me to go long!
correct: 33 squared days from Oct. 2007 highs.
The market didn’t tank today but it looks like it made a major reversal. Bear flips on pretty much most of the indices although most of the flips did not breakaway from their recent ranges. Nasdaq and QQQQ reversals were the most impressive; both made a new daily high with lower RSI reading and then closed beneath last Friday’s low. (gap up open). $vix closed barely above its 50 day average but if it puts another close with some distance above the 50day then it’s game on. McClellan Oscillator with a minor change reading yesterday (probably another one today). I haven’t see anything that would register tomorrow as a significant date(but some do) other than tomorrow is 111 trading days from the April 26 high. We’re also approaching the vicinity of 33 squared days from the October 11 2010 highs. Also fractal similarity to the early August high. Apple,Bidu,Goog with ugly charts/topping patterns. Plus we have had some flash crash previews earlier in the week with PGN and a minor version with Apple. There was a flash crash a few weeks ago with a big name stock that was barely reported (I only saw a slight reference in WSJ)