Saturday, July 13, 2024

Saved Once Again

The Bulls were rescued once again...

Doesn't this look like the PPT stepping in and saving the market from breaking the trendline today?  It certainly looked that way too me, as even with the heavy volume the market couldn't close below that rising support line from the 1040 low.

Very frustrating to say the least.  This leaves tomorrow open for the market to rally up again.  Maybe it just re-tests the high from today, or maybe it pushes up past it and makes a new high?  I see bullish counts and bearish counts, so I just don't know what's going to happen tomorrow?

It's opx for the weekly, as today was opx for the quarterly's, and they tend to want to pin the market at a certain level so the options will expire worthless.  But what level is that?  Are there too many shorts or longs in the market now?  I just don't know?

There is also new money coming in tomorrow, as it's the first day of the quarter (and the month)... but again, how much?  Will it cause a rally, or just a sideways choppy day... or will there not be enough money to hold the market up, and she breaks the trendline support and falls hard all day long?

I'm at a lost for words here, because I don't know which way the market is going tomorrow... not even a clue.  I give it 50/50 odds here.  A break of that support line, and down we go... and hard too.  Failure to break it though, and the rally can continue into next week.

Maybe we really are going to go straight up to the DIA 118.16 FP, without much more then a one day wonder down day?  All this obvious manipulation sometimes makes me want to just throw the charts away and ride the bull until it finally dies.  Of course it will be a quick death, as the bears attack fast.  Problem is, there's not enough bears to kill the bulls right now.

Well, I'm just rambling right now.  I'm disappointed today, and don't know about tomorrow.  So I'll close, and wish everyone good luck...

Red

P.S. Go Bears! 😉

Red
Author: Red

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Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

Thanks Red for holding the fort! I will take 30 percent here?http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-updates-circuit-breaker-trigger-levels-2010-09-30

Only a matter of time and as you have posted before, “Don’t bet against the Sun!” Regards, Robert

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I always get this funny feeling that I’m wrong about my forecast right about the time the market turns. Just when I’m ready to give up… bam, the market reverses! Maybe we’ll see wave 3 down tomorrow? Who knows?

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
13 years ago

and here I thought I was the only one who gets those feelings, lol

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

You’re not the only one Jigsaw. I’m just about ready to throw in the towel on the bears, but the last I was about ready to throw in the towel on the bulls rallying was back at 1040… what’s that tell you?

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

Today we got a strong thrust higher(bull trap) which was a false breakout followed by 1st wave down to 1137 with volume. We retraced to 0.318 level and tested it twice and 1145 resistance held. I think that was a wave 2. Now we should get a wave 3 tomorrow morning. It could be a large one we don’t know but tonight I must admit it feels weird like the tide is changing. We may also see an unexpected rally in the dollar contributing in a bearish stock move. Probabilities are on bears side. Rally fully extended, am not worried, bulls are tired and they got punched hard today. Stay short and sit tight, some sort of a decline is very close and we just have to be patient. The index is still under that trendline from the 2007 top. Also something to point out, almost all the years finishing by 0 are down years. It was like that for almost all the 20th century.Anything can happen.
Wouldn’t be amazing they have to use those circuit-breakers on the very first day of implementation.
Regards, Mike

coulous
coulous
13 years ago

Ici en France on commence à bien descendre

Now CAC40 down enclenched

Go bear

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

1150= 61.8% retracement from yesterday’s decline, so possible wave 3 starts at this level

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Possible… yes, but nothing is going to happen until these short term charts work off their oversold conditions. We might not get any sell off today, as it could be pushed out to next week?

I’m bullish for the first half of today at least, and the rest of the day is unknown? Without a break of that trendline supporting this rally, the bears don’t stand a chance. 🙁

Kayfischer83
Kayfischer83
13 years ago

what is important to address, is that weeks before the market was data dependent, now after todays data release, the market hasnt move much to the upside.

is it because we are in a topping process? it doesnt matter why, cause you never are gonna find out, instead of finding the solution it is more important to identify the investors behavior

last 2 or 4 days we had a past 13:00 sell off, so i will wait for the same pattern to play…

some questions or opinions:

faz did got a bullish cross in the MACD(12,26,9)

indu is about to get the Golden Cross (50EMA vs 200EMA), are shorts (including me)…f*ucked?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We’re getting close now! Come on support line… Break Dam it!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I guess today will boil down to how much money they got for this new quarter? It’s coming to the end of the apex, and break up or down must happen today.

Are we going to rally to 1160-1170, or sell off 50-100 points? We should know by the end of the day.

anoopsan
13 years ago

If its going to be another breakout above 1150 we are going to 1160-1170. Another false breakout towards the same side may not happen.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I agree. If it breaks out to the upside a second time… it’s for real. The bears can go back into hibernation for awhile.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

On thing the bears got going for them is the fact that the news data out recently has been positive. The market tends to rally on bad news, and top out and sell on good news. So, a top should be near, as some of the reports over the last few days have be positive.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

What am I missing here? VIX is going down, GS is going up, and the market is going down?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

What’s your overall thoughts on the market today San? (The SPY and Dow).

anoopsan
13 years ago

Seeing the hour charts they are all moving in a sideways fashion and giving whipsaws to both sides. So it may be a good idea to wait for a clear breakout

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That I can see… I just wondered which way you think they are going to break?

anoopsan
13 years ago

The ascending triangle in S&P 500 should give an upside breakout

Jason_70
13 years ago

Red,

Here’s the chart to ES FP that i promised to you over cobra’s discussion. I haven’t seen this lately. Actually this is the ONLY occurrence in this week. As i said, i have seen this almost every day of last week.

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_nWni2LcWFe0/TKYcXNu_y7I/AAAAAAAAAH4/0q0nlxA7j4g/es_fp.png

PS: Chart is from today morning. (Oct 1)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Holy Cow Jason! That’s huge! I just read that the TARP program is set to end this Sunday too. With NO money to support the market, a big fall will follow. Thanks a lot…

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

And guess who’s last at the trough? AIG.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/67392/20100930/aig-offers-risky-bailout-repayment-plan-will-use-tarp-fund-to-make-fed-exit.htm

They’ll pay off the Federal Reserve with the last of the TARP funds. Pay off the Treasury with the preferred to common share conversion.

UGGH!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

They borrow our money, manipulate the market up with it, then cash out at the top, use the money they stole (errr… profits) to pay us back our money. Yeah… sounds about right.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It’s actually showing 2 FP’s… one around 1080, and the other at 885 or so. I wonder if the 1080 print is our first downside target? And then the final target low of 885 or so after that? Pretty scary stuff!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Man the bulls are in charge.

Anna is going bull in a bit I gather and iam still stuck hoping for a bone. The technicals could care.

Not a lot of help in the charts as i see it.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p42080637614&a=209925842

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

A break is coming soon Jim, and even if it’s to the upside, I don’t think it will last too long. With all the FP’s to the downside that are showing up, I’d say October is going to be ugly.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL…

I love that movie! It’s a classic!

Imaginasian23
Imaginasian23
13 years ago

I’m tired of this tape! I HUNTING for RED OCTOBER!

zstock7
13 years ago

Anna caught some sort of fake print…I don’t know what it is…DEC?
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_nWni2LcWFe0/TKYcXNu_y7I/AAAAAAAAAH4/0q0nlxA7j4g/es_fp.png

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks Z…

Jason70 caught it earlier and posted it below. The credit goes to him. But, I gave to Anna. Scary print… huh?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The possibilities of a gap down Monday are very high now…

Trektrader
Trektrader
13 years ago

GS FP after close of 144.40. Emailed it.

Jason_70
13 years ago

Red,

Actual price is NOT seen in the chart. What you see are the two MA’s. RED is 39 MA that is seen around 1080 and 9 MA seen around 880. Now, this is a 180 min chart on my screen by default. Which means, the actual price of ES would have been much lower than 880 for it to have a 9 MA of 880 on a 180 min chart.

Just thot wud add this bit of clarification.

Robert
13 years ago

Nice day for the bulls. Gonna keep my bull cap on for Monday. With dollar getting whacked every day the market will rise. Looking forward to mutual fund Monday. Could see a 2-3 % move…..have a great weekend gang…………

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

Well another day im printing all the charts to burn and smacking my head on the screen of the com cause all this waiting is killing me couldnt stand it any more so went in for a short PL on the bulls cause nothing short of a warhead seems to be able to stop them.Seriously wondering if this coming monday would be (black) with everything falling apart for the bulls over the weekend.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks for clearing that up Jason. It looked like 2 FP’s instead of one. Do you know what the actual low was, if not 880?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

hey Red, you might be interested in my forecast model because it lines up perfectly with all the FPs you’re seeing. The model is based on long term cyclicals I think, but anyway, you can see that we’re about to “fall off a cliff” but eventually the market will rally back up to the 1200 are next year to hit that DIA print you’re seeing

So the powers that be have decided to take it to the Dow 8800 print first then the Dow 11,800 print next.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34981801455&a=205687116

Jason_70
13 years ago

Leo,
I was too busy early in the morning and since you asked me to get you a screenshot, i just did that. Later i realized that i should have actually seen the print/price too. 🙁
Since this has been repeating almost every week, i will get it next time i see that.

HighRev
HighRev
13 years ago

Anyone else dizzied by that “same time, same place, rinse and repeat” feeling? What a chop fest this last week was. The only people making money here are the options writers! LOL

BTW, I’ve updated the Big Picture over on TF.

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2194809

And don’t miss the video Ponzi_unit posted just above mine! Click on “Show in context” to get there.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Hey there HighRev…

Thanks for stopping by. I read your new post, and it’s another very informative one. Be sure to continue posting your link to it, whenever you do another one, as I enjoy reading them.

Red

P.S. My head is still spinning too from all the crap that went on this week, so don’t feel like you’re only.
😉

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

58 days from August 7 which was th climax of the Cardinal Climax would be October 4 or October 6 if one goes by the 8-09-10 date or high. Of course August 7 was 666 calendar days from Oct 10,2008 financial crisis panic low.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

By my calculations, October 4 is 33squared days from October 11,2007 highs. (October 11,2007 by the way featured the same reversal bar seen on Sept. 30) 365+365+366(2008 leap year extra day)=1096-7(Oct11-4)=1089(33×33). 10-4s everywhere in the Cramer code and the Prechter video. SP has repeatedly bounced from the 1040 area. The print from DOw rise a week ago Friday 1987(4). LP’s Waiting for the End playing at 8:(4)7 am on Wednesday (which was followed by No Doubt’s “Spiderweb”–which in itself is a harmless song) . David Fincher out with a new movie “Social Network”, ritualistically bidding adieu to the echo tech bubble. (Prechter would call this a form of socio economics demonstrating mass social optimism but this movie had to have been greenlighted during the depths of the financial crisis). Fincher should do a sequel to “7” and name it “4” or “58” (still trying to figure this one out as it is a form of 4 5×4 or 1+3 but there has to be more to it. The last number of the Cramer Code sequence is 4:20: 58—backwards its 87 but if one looks at the scoreboard in the background on top there is the date 5-26 and below the scoreboard has an 8-0 or as such
5-8 (ie26)
8 diagonally from bottom to top also could appear as 8-26, the date of the bottom of this latest ramp up and a major astrological date according to Larry P. 40 days from that date???? Sept 30===157or(58) c. days from April high and SP topped at 1157. Cramer does touch the number 8.53.
Anyway, the technical structure of the market indicates that it should tank imminently. The Nasdaq big 5 are cracking. Everyone seems to be bullish. I saw a lot of chatter on various message boards about crude oil breaking out but all I saw was it putting in a hockey stick pattern which is seen before collapses and crude oil always tends to get fevered at the end of rallies. $xoi also with a beautiful AB=CD pattern in both time and price.

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